Resource Beyond the "66 Game" Rebuild

Nah all good mate my way of judging players is by watching a body of work they put together in the seniors. I try not to judge blokes after 2 games especially when their first season was ruined by injury.
However if a player is on the list 5 years plus and not getting a regular senior game then its time to move them on. Buckley or Jaksch for example.

I watched first year players McKay & Curnow through the pre-season in '15 and saw them as young beasts.
Wanted to show their wares off from day one, jumping over senior opponents and taking them to the ground heavily. :)

First impressions are important to me and they can, and have been very wrong at times (see Bootsma) but often you get some feel for what they can, what they want to and what they will bring along with them.

In this instance, the only reason I had McKay somewhat low, is again for opportunity.
McKay seems to me at this very early stage a KPF or bust and that's a terribly hard gig, with very limited opportunity.
 

Mr.X

Premiership Player
Apr 27, 2007
3,835
1,393
AFL Club
Carlton
Might need to add another 2 seasons to this before Blues really start challenging for a flag.
A lot needs to go right for that to happen

8-10 wins next year is the absolute minimum, anything less indicates progress isn't on the right track
 
Watch the hardness at the ball and the individual strengths of genuine A grade players that fill the starting teams of Adelaide and Sydney / GWS in particular and then understand just how far back Carlton is right now. A lot of sides make their way into finals and are never a genuine chance to win a flag.

In order for Carlton to be a contender - the Club has to find and fit 4-5 players one a grade small in backs- 3 midfielders to replace pretenders currently in rotations and at least one genuine goal kicking tall up front. Will take another couple of drafts.

Still - all that said- I think the win/loss ratio starts to improve dramatically with just a couple of good mids added to mix - hopefully this is attended to over the course of trade/draft period this year.
 

Mr_Plow

That name again...
May 18, 2008
17,226
65,653
Melbourne
AFL Club
Carlton
Other Teams
Red Wings
There's a guy called Charlie Curnow.
Pretty good player.

Had 106.9 AFL player rating points at the end of round 13, he now has 234.4 at the end of round 22.
That's 127.5 points in 9 games, 14.167 points per game.

I'm going to assume this is now Charlie's standard as an AFL player, which is fair, 9 weeks is a long time in football. This isn't 2 or 3 weeks of form.

Let me just extrapolate that for where he'd fit on the AFL leaderboard.

14.167 * 40-game sliding scale = 566.7

That's good for 7th in the AFL, and the highest ranked key forward.

I'm not thaaaaaaat excited...




Okay, I am.

This guy is a beast and influences games heavily at 20 with his ball-winning ability, aerial dominance, thumping kicks and massive frame.
 

NavySteel

Premiership Player
Jun 15, 2017
3,428
9,572
AFL Club
Carlton
Other Teams
Tottenham Hotspur
Don't want to steal FBI's thunder, but prepare yourselves for a significant spike in the "SEN Player Ratings" based on Saturday's performance.

The ratings are subjective, but I reckon people are starting to take notice (as they should) now that the objective data is starting to reflect the quality of our youth players, especially over the past few weeks.

Exciting times!
 
Mar 8, 2013
6,032
10,708
On my high horse
AFL Club
Carlton
Other Teams
Chicago Bears
Don't want to steal FBI's thunder, but prepare yourselves for a significant spike in the "SEN Player Ratings" based on Saturday's performance.

The ratings are subjective, but I reckon people are starting to take notice (as they should) now that the objective data is starting to reflect the quality of our youth players, especially over the past few weeks.

Exciting times!
Steal it, damn you!
 
Apr 29, 2012
24,113
34,585
Perth
AFL Club
Carlton
Game 43 (2017).png

Graph: graphical representation of number of "youth" selected in the best 22 (Series 1) along with that youth's performance, by way of AFL Coaches Association votes (Series 2), average youth AFL Player Rating* (Series 3) and average SEN Inside Football Player Rating Points** (Series 4)
* Avg AFL Player Rating = total player rating / number of players.
** Avg SEN Inside Football Player Rating = total player rating points / number of players.


GAME 43 Rnd 22 - WIN vs Hawthorn (77-70)
14 Youth Players
Coaches Votes:
Player Ratings Points (AFL,SEN):

Sam Docherty - 429.4 (-0.1), 9
Lachlan Plowman - 310.8
(-), 7
Jacob Weitering - 292.2
(+0.1), 7
Sam Kerridge -231.7
(+9.2) , 7
Charlie Curnow - 234.4
(+17.7), 8
Jack Silvagni - 165
(-2.2), 3
Jed Lamb - 138.1
(+7.3), 7
Samo Petrevski-Seton - 161.8
(+3.2), 5
Blaine Boekhurst - 112.1
(+3.3), 7
Zac Fisher - 110.9
(+12.1), 6
Ciaran Byrne - 101.1
(+9.1), 7
Tom Williamson - 67.5
(+4.9), 5
Jarrod Picket - 39.1
(+7.7), 7
Billie Smedts - 34.4
(+2.5), 3

Average: 173.47, 6.29


It felt so good to break that hoodoo over the Hawks, and to see the kids at the forefront was amazing. Look at that average SEN score, our highest ever average across the kids, and that included a 3 from Smedts who was concussed and didn't play the second half. What a performance, Docherty was elite, and the likes of Lamb, Boekhurst and Pickett all had outstanding games, scoring 7 points, we've seen those players score 1-3 in the past and you can really see the difference in our performance when they play well and the whole 22 contributes. Footy isn't like basketball, you don't need a team full of superstars, just some guns and solid contributions by ALL players. Those solid contributions gave us the win this week.

In other news, * the AFL Player ratings system, Docherty somehow drops points, excuse me, Cripps continues to drop due to his injury, Plowman is getting no love and Weitering somehow only climbs at 0.1 per week despite putting in great performances in the last two weeks. I don't understand this system, I might start including super coach points next year because I don't feel this gives enough credit to our boys.

Also, how exciting is it that we are almost officially two thirds of the way through the rebuild. One more game, no injuries and a big off season will see us in a great position. The numbers are going up and so are the Blues.

Jarrod Pickett deserves the first nod this week for his exhilarating performance. He had 16 touches, surprisingly including 12 contested possessions, which is very impressive for his stature. He ran with speed, had 3 inside 50's, 2 goals and a behind. He had a few cracking tackles and took 3 marks inside forward fifty. How bout Sam Docherty, the man had 555m gained, had 31 touches, took 15 marks (fifteen!) had 6 rebound 50's, 2 1%ers, and 2 goal assists in a game where he showed his class and leadership, how about the 93% efficiency. Charlie Curnow deserves to be the Rising Star, i'm calling it, he had a team high 14 contested possessions, he finished with 22 touches, took 5 marks, including 2 contested grabs, he also laid 3 tackles, had 4 inside 50's, and kicked a snag. Jacob Weitering took a game high 8 intercept possessions, in a game that reminded us what a contributor he can and will be for the future, he had 23 touches, went at 87% efficiency and took 10 marks. Weits had 3 rebound 50s, 6 1%ers and 3 inside 50. Blaine Boekhurst had probably his best game for the club, he had 26 touches, took 8 marks, had 3 rebound 50's, 4 tackles, 4 inside 50's and looked competitive. What about Jed Lamb's effort on Sicily, he completely shut down the rebounding defender, had 15 touches of his own, punished him with 2 goals of his own on the offensive side, drew 6 free kicks for, laid 4 tackles, including a ripper on Sicily. Sam Kerridge has made his way back into my future best 22, the guy can play the perfect half forward flank or wing role, he runs ALL DAY LONG, like our man Ed Curnow, Kedge had 24 disposals, took 6 marks, had 5 clearances, 4 rebound 50's, and 7 tackles. Hard working his way back into our future. Lachie Plowman, what more can we say at this stage, he's elite, he had 20 touches, took 8 marks, had 4 1%ers and 3 rebound 50's as well as playing excellently on his opponents. Ciaran Byrne!, Bunsen returned, had 23 touches and looked like he never missed. He had 5 marks, 4 rebound 50's, and 7 1%er efforts. Zac Fisher played really really well and showed excellent signs, he had 16 touches, 4 marks, 3 tackles and 2 1%ers. Samo Petrevski-Seton took a hit to the thigh but played through had 12 touches, had 4 marks, laid 4 tackles and had 3 inside 50's. Tom Williamson had 13 touches, took 4 marks, 5 rebound 50's, and had 4 bounces off the back flank. Billie Smedts got knocked out and only managed, 5 touches, he had 1 mark but still managed an impressive 8 tackles in his limited game time. Jack Silvagni only managed 5 touches in a quiet game, he had 3 tackles and 2 1%ers.
 
Apr 29, 2012
24,113
34,585
Perth
AFL Club
Carlton
There's a guy called Charlie Curnow.
Pretty good player.

Had 106.9 AFL player rating points at the end of round 13, he now has 234.4 at the end of round 22.
That's 127.5 points in 9 games, 14.167 points per game.

I'm going to assume this is now Charlie's standard as an AFL player, which is fair, 9 weeks is a long time in football. This isn't 2 or 3 weeks of form.

Let me just extrapolate that for where he'd fit on the AFL leaderboard.

14.167 * 40-game sliding scale = 566.7

That's good for 7th in the AFL, and the highest ranked key forward.

I'm not thaaaaaaat excited...




Okay, I am.

This guy is a beast and influences games heavily at 20 with his ball-winning ability, aerial dominance, thumping kicks and massive frame.
He's a star!
 

My name geoff

Premiership Player
Jul 2, 2015
4,523
6,097
AFL Club
Carlton
Watch the hardness at the ball and the individual strengths of genuine A grade players that fill the starting teams of Adelaide and Sydney / GWS in particular and then understand just how far back Carlton is right now. A lot of sides make their way into finals and are never a genuine chance to win a flag.

In order for Carlton to be a contender - the Club has to find and fit 4-5 players one a grade small in backs- 3 midfielders to replace pretenders currently in rotations and at least one genuine goal kicking tall up front. Will take another couple of drafts.

Still - all that said- I think the win/loss ratio starts to improve dramatically with just a couple of good mids added to mix - hopefully this is attended to over the course of trade/draft period this year.

Look at the crows age profile:

Lever 21
McGovern 22
Kelly 22
Knight 22
M Crouch 22
B Crouch 23
Atkins 23
Cameron 23
Laird 23
Brown 25
Keith 25
Greenwood 25
Smith 25
Talia 26
Sloane 27
Lynch 27
Walker 27
Jenkins 28
McKay 29
Jacobs 29
Betts 30
Douglas 30

Apart from Lever, every one of their team on the weekend is between the age 22 and 30.

We have a better spread of talent than the crows but the majority aren't at the age of peak performance. Here are but a few examples:

Weitering 19
Curnow 20
Pickett 21
Williamson 18
Silvagni 19
Cuningham 20
Marchbank 20
Petrevski-Seton 19
Fisher 19
Simpson 33

It's actually outrageous how well we are performing with such a lopsided age profile. Only elite young talent could produce wins given the amount of teenagers we have had in the side for the whole season.

In two years time with the exact same list, with the amount of games we have got into the youngsters the past two seasons, we will be in a position to torment teams like the Crows/Sydney

Williamson 20
Fisher 21
McKay 21
Macreadie 21
Weitering 21
Silvagni 21
SPS 21
Cuningham 22
Marchbank 22
Curnow 22
Pickett 23
Cripps 24
Byrne 24
Plowman 24
Docherty 25
Jones 28
Wright 29
Curnow 29
Casboult 29
Gibbs 30
Kruezer 30

I counted 18 players who I believe could be elite in season 2019
 

Mr_Plow

That name again...
May 18, 2008
17,226
65,653
Melbourne
AFL Club
Carlton
Other Teams
Red Wings
It's actually frightening to think what a 22 year old Curnow will be capable of.

Prime (24-30) these guys:

Williamson 20
Fisher 21
McKay 21
Macreadie 21
Weitering 21
Silvagni 21
SPS 21
Cuningham 22
Marchbank 22
Curnow 22
Pickett 23
Cripps 24
Byrne 24
Plowman 24
Docherty 25

is going to be fun to watch.

We still have 2 more drafts to get right, but gladly it's all up from here.
 

My name geoff

Premiership Player
Jul 2, 2015
4,523
6,097
AFL Club
Carlton
It's actually frightening to think what a 22 year old Curnow will be capable of.

Prime (24-30) these guys:

Williamson 20
Fisher 21
McKay 21
Macreadie 21
Weitering 21
Silvagni 21
SPS 21
Cuningham 22
Marchbank 22
Curnow 22
Pickett 23
Cripps 24
Byrne 24
Plowman 24
Docherty 25

is going to be fun to watch.

We still have 2 more drafts to get right, but gladly it's all up from here.

Imagine a 24 y.o. Cripps, 22 y.o. Curnow, 21 y.o. SPS, 21 y.o. Fisher, 22 y.o. Cuningham, 23 y.o. Pickett rotating through the midfield with Gibbs, Kruezer and Ed.

I actually don't think we are as desperate for mids as people think. I would argue that Tom Lynch will make a bigger difference to our side than Josh Kelly.

Best 22 2019..

Plowman(24) Jones(28) Weitering(21)
Byrne(24) Marchbank(22) Docherty(25)
Williamson(20) Cripps(24) Cuningham(22)
Pickett(23) Lynch(26) Fisher(21)
SPS(21) McKay(21) Silvagni(21)

Kruezer(30) Curnow(22) Gibbs(30)

Ed(29) Macreadie(21) Rayner(20) Wright(29)

There's 9 gun midfielders in that side, and look at that forward line.

Elite grade defence
Elite midfield
Elite forward line
 

cookie monster

Premiership Player
Jun 12, 2008
3,604
10,425
Melbourne
AFL Club
Carlton
Other Teams
NY Giants
Geez I hope we're not overvaluing our list...
That definitely is not happening.

Look at what the list of 2011 did after playing 50-100 games with one another. And that list was full of DUDS. This time around we have actual talent, not to mention key position talent, the depth of which we haven't seen at the club since the mid 90s. Once this group plays 50-100 games together, they are going to be doing some very special things on the football field.
 

Sector 7G

Norm Smith Medallist
Aug 21, 2009
9,454
18,625
Melbourne
AFL Club
Carlton
Clearly what is require for Carlton to kick on is for 3-4 of the young players to have breakout years and then maintain elite standard, in much the way Crippa did in 2015 which was unexpected and CC has in the later part of this year. I think there are currently plenty of players who can take the next step.

It you look at the Saints their team looked to be building but have stalled on the back of players like Acres not really coming on and players who had taken the step up like Bruce, stagnating.
 

Mr_Plow

That name again...
May 18, 2008
17,226
65,653
Melbourne
AFL Club
Carlton
Other Teams
Red Wings
Clearly what is require for Carlton to kick on is for 3-4 of the young players to have breakout years and then maintain elite standard, in much the way Crippa did in 2015 which was unexpected and CC has in the later part of this year. I think there are currently plenty of players who can take the next step.

It you look at the Saints their team looked to be building but have stalled on the back of players like Acres not really coming on and players who had taken the step up like Bruce, stagnating.

The issue too with the Saints rebuild is that they didn't invest in top 10 picks.

Billings looks to have genuine star quality. McCartin may turn it around with a good run.

Ross was terrific earlier in the year. Guys like Acres, Dunstan and Newnes haven't taken off.

Many of these young core players were taken from 15-30 in the draft. They'll be solid to very good players, but finding someone elite at that stage of the draft is really difficult.



Then there is the KPP issue.

McCartin has talent but can't stay fit, Bruce is ordinary, Goddard can't stay fit, Brown is old af.
 

My name geoff

Premiership Player
Jul 2, 2015
4,523
6,097
AFL Club
Carlton
The issue too with the Saints rebuild is that they didn't invest in top 10 picks.

Billings looks to have genuine star quality. McCartin may turn it around with a good run.

Ross was terrific earlier in the year. Guys like Acres, Dunstan and Newnes haven't taken off.

Many of these young core players were taken from 15-30 in the draft. They'll be solid to very good players, but finding someone elite at that stage of the draft is really difficult.



Then there is the KPP issue.

McCartin has talent but can't stay fit, Bruce is ordinary, Goddard can't stay fit, Brown is old af.

Good point.

How many St.Kilda players have the potential to regularly take games by the scruff of the neck? I counted maybe 1 in Billings but I'm not sold. Gresham as a possible and McCartin as a long shot.

How many do Carlton have?

SPS, Cripps, Curnow, McKay who I'm absolutely confident will be regularly ripping games apart with Weitering a probable and Pickett, Cuningham as possibles..
 

Sector 7G

Norm Smith Medallist
Aug 21, 2009
9,454
18,625
Melbourne
AFL Club
Carlton
The issue too with the Saints rebuild is that they didn't invest in top 10 picks.

Billings looks to have genuine star quality. McCartin may turn it around with a good run.

Ross was terrific earlier in the year. Guys like Acres, Dunstan and Newnes haven't taken off.

Many of these young core players were taken from 15-30 in the draft. They'll be solid to very good players, but finding someone elite at that stage of the draft is really difficult.



Then there is the KPP issue.

McCartin has talent but can't stay fit, Bruce is ordinary, Goddard can't stay fit, Brown is old af.
Agreed. I am a big believer that guns make average players look passable.

That and the 2012 draft/trade period being a bust (not entirely there fault as it was a terrible draft year, Tom Lee ? ) for them when they had plenty of early picks.
 
Jun 4, 2016
11,909
36,237
AFL Club
Carlton
Good point.

How many St.Kilda players have the potential to regularly take games by the scruff of the neck? I counted maybe 1 in Billings but I'm not sold. Gresham as a possible and McCartin as a long shot.

How many do Carlton have?

SPS, Cripps, Curnow, McKay who I'm absolutely confident will be regularly ripping games apart with Weitering a probable and Pickett, Cuningham as possibles..
Billings is definitely one. He's still coming into his own and he ripped us apart earlier this year.
 

Sector 7G

Norm Smith Medallist
Aug 21, 2009
9,454
18,625
Melbourne
AFL Club
Carlton
Billings is definitely one. He's still coming into his own and he ripped us apart earlier this year.
Still very inconsistent. Kicking at goal has been at 30% for the year except for the game against us where he dopped 5 straight. We were pretty stiff to get the one game he had the kicking boots on.
 
Mar 8, 2013
6,032
10,708
On my high horse
AFL Club
Carlton
Other Teams
Chicago Bears
That definitely is not happening.

Look at what the list of 2011 did after playing 50-100 games with one another. And that list was full of DUDS. This time around we have actual talent, not to mention key position talent, the depth of which we haven't seen at the club since the mid 90s. Once this group plays 50-100 games together, they are going to be doing some very special things on the football field.
I hope you're right... I wonder what we were saying about those "DUDS" back in 2011...

Not saying you're wrong mind you, just hoping we're not all wearing navy blue coloured glasses.
 
Back