Resource Beyond the "66 Game" Rebuild

[Captain Cripps]

Technically everything we do prior to round one next season is part of the rebuild.

That was always the planned start of the climb back up the ladder.

So who will Carlton beat to start climbing?

 

[Arr0w]

Technically everything we do prior to round one next season is part of the rebuild.

That was always the planned start of the climb back up the ladder.

And we all know things change quickly

 

[Styxx]

We should keep this open as until Carlton is fully rebuilt.

Multiple flags in a row, several utensils stolen from Kirribilli.

 

[Jabba73]

So who will Carlton beat to start climbing?

It starts round one next season. Any game from there is up for grabs.

 

[Captain Cripps]

It starts round one next season. Any game from there is up for grabs.

I meant clubs
Who will/should we beat end of next year realistically pending normal injuries as every club gets them

 

[Jabba73]

I meant clubs
Who will/should we beat end of next year realistically pending normal injuries as every club gets them

Should win 2/3 against clubs in the bottom 6, 1/2 against clubs in the next 6 and maybe one game against those in the top 6. Should have us around 8 wins, push for finals the following year.

 

[Captain Cripps]

Should win 2/3 against clubs in the bottom 6, 1/2 against clubs in the next 6 and maybe one game against those in the top 6. Should have us around 8 wins, push for finals the following year.

Which clubs do you think Carlton will finish ahead?

 

[Jabba73]

Which clubs do you think Carlton will finish ahead?

Suns, Saints, Norf, Dockers, about even with Lions, expect one of Crows or Dogs to slip as well. Could end up anywhere in that mix.

 

[Arr0w]

Suns, Saints, Norf, Dockers, about even with Lions, expect one of Crows or Dogs to slip as well. Could end up anywhere in that mix.

I see the bottom 6 team for next year, in no particular order

GC, Lions, Saints, us, North, Dockers

If North land some players, they could have an artificial improvement

 

[The Flying Doormat]

Are we there yet?

 

[Jabba73]

I see the bottom 6 team for next year, in no particular order

GC, Lions, Saints, us, North, Dockers

If North land some players, they could have an artificial improvement

Same bottom six unless someone falls off a cliff.

Agree about trading being important in who can improve, Norf have a recent history of going short term, will hurt them over the next couple of years.

 

[La Dispute]

So who will Carlton beat to start climbing?

Could see us beating Gold Coast, Brisbane, St Kilda, North Melbourne, Fremantle, Port Adelaide, Essendon, Who really knows though? It's all cyclical, and teams in the 8 may find themselves on the outer.

Over the course of the rebuild we've knocked off: Essendon, Collingwood, Port Adelaide, Geelong, GWS, Fremantle and Gold Coast, so we've had some decent scalps in there.

 

[SkyhorseTamer]

Same bottom six unless someone falls off a cliff.

Agree about trading being important in who can improve, Norf have a recent history of going short term, will hurt them over the next couple of years.

Port

 

[CJMB]

Could see us beating Gold Coast, Brisbane, St Kilda, North Melbourne, Fremantle, Port Adelaide, Essendon, Who really knows though? It's all cyclical, and teams in the 8 may find themselves on the outer.

Over the course of the rebuild we've knocked off: Essendon, Collingwood, Port Adelaide, Geelong, GWS, Fremantle and Gold Coast, so we've had some decent scalps in there.

We’ve beaten Brisbane, Hawthorn & Sydney too


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[ShanDog]

Is there going to be a grande finale data summary post FlowersByIrene?

Regardless, I look forward to your "Track the Path to Number 17" thread for round 1, 2019

 

[FlowersByIrene]

Is there going to be a grande finale data summary post FlowersByIrene?

Regardless, I look forward to your "Track the Path to Number 17" thread for round 1, 2019

Yes to both there Shan Dog,

I ended up dropping the ball the last few weeks but i'll put up some graphs and the path for the future ahead.

 

[Jabba73]

Yes to both there Shan Dog,

I ended up dropping the ball the last few weeks but i'll put up some graphs and the path for the future ahead.

Only dropping the ball if you play for us, otherwise would be called play on.

 

[Juddernaut08]

I see the bottom 6 team for next year, in no particular order

GC, Lions, Saints, us, North, Dockers

If North land some players, they could have an artificial improvement

Hmm I am a bit more optimistic, but I feel like I"ve been pretty reasonable in my assumptions:

TIER 1 - Teams who are peaking, we won't get near: West Coast, Richmond, GWS, Melbourne

TIER 2 - Teams that will most likely make finals, or be in the mix: Collingwood, Hawthorn, Sydney, Geelong, Essendon, Port, Adelaide

TIER 3A - Struggling teams who can expect dropoffs:

Kangaroos: In the gun to lose or see dropoffs from Higgins (31 next year), Goldstein (31 next year) and Waite (retired). May not happen next year but they'll eventually have the Gibbs/Docherty/Kreuzer type dropoff we saw this year.

Freo: Same as Roos, their Mundy/Sandilands/seniors group is papering over the fact that the rest of their team isn't much chop (yet).

TIER 3B - Young teams that are on similar trajectory as us, but we'll be in the mix for:

Brisbane (though they have Zorko, Martin, Beams etc who are similar to our Doch/Gibbs/Murphy

Dogs - lots of young talent

Saints - on the rise too, but IMO low ceiling

Gold Coast - hopefully we overtake them since they're losing Lynch and perhaps May lose their captain, Steven (punny?)

 

[Jabba73]

Gold Coast - hopefully we overtake them since they're losing Lynch and perhaps May lose their captain, Steven (punny?)

NANE, ffs

 

[Jeremias]

Sorry all, no ranking update over the past couple of weeks.

AFL Player Ratings as at the conclusion of R23
(Movement since the conclusion of R20)

Patrick Cripps - 20 (-6)
Charlie Curnow - 128 (+3)
Lachie Plowman - 219 (-1)
Zac Fisher - 266 (-7)
Jacob Weitering - 289 (-16)
Sam Petrevski-Seton - 291 (-10)
Sam Docherty - 320 (-69)
Matthew Kennedy - 369 (-3)
Jack Silvagni - 370 (+10)
Caleb Marchbank - 399 (+21)
Sam Kerridge - 400 (-1)
Paddy Dow - 412 (+17)
Darcy Lang - 437 (+4)
Harry McKay - 459 (+35)
Nick Graham - 469 (-20)
Jarrod Pickett - 508 (+6)
David Cuningham - 509 (-22)
Tom Williamson - 540 (-10)
Lochie O'Brien - 543 (+34)
Ciaran Byrne - 556 (+78)
Cameron Polson - 570 (+62)
Jarrod Garlett - 576 (-20)
Harrison Macreadie - 618 (+1)
Pat Kerr - 662 (-4)
Tom De Koning - 687

Huge end to the year for Byrne, Polson, Harry and LOB.

At the other end of the spectrum, Doc fell dramatically but no huge concern there, given he was obviously on the sidelines and should bounce back strong next year.

YTD movement - 2018

Zac Fisher +228
Paddy Dow +200
Harry McKay +195
Charlie Curnow +168
Cameron Polson +134
Sam Petrevski-Seton +131
Caleb Marchbank +99
Matthew Kennedy +96
Lochie O'Brien +89
Jarrod Pickett +74
Jack Silvagni +56
David Cuningham +37
Patrick Cripps +10
Tom Williamson +8
Pat Kerr +3
Lachie Plowman +2

Nick Graham -1
Darcy Lang -4
Harrison Macreadie -14
Ciaran Byrne -53
Jacob Weitering -59
Sam Kerridge -88
Jarrod Garlett -101
Sam Docherty -241

No doubt 2018 was a tough year, but not a wasted one by any stretch. Saw some huge growth from a number of kids despite the circumstances.

Games into 'Youth'

2016 - 110 games
2017 - 221 games
2018 - 257 games

Cripps - 22
SPS - 22
Dow - 20
Curnow - 20
LOB - 18
Fisher - 17
Silvagni - 15
Weitering - 14
Plowman - 13
McKay - 13
Marchbank - 12
Kennedy - 12
Polson - 12
Garlett - 11
Lang - 11
Pickett - 7
Byrne - 7
Cuningham - 5
Kerr - 4
TDK - 2

 

[BluStreak]

FlowersByIrene thank you for the work you put into this.

 

[FlowersByIrene]

The 66th game has come to an end. After a back half dip we managed to push back up in the average AFL Player Ratings, after dipping down to an average of 165 in Round 20, we made some solid gains to push back up towards 190 by the end of the season. Unfortunately our season has been hampered this year by a number of injuries, obviously the loss of Docherty's 400 odd missing from the squad has made a huge hole in our average and we've never reached the heights I projected we would this season.

Congratulations msut be given to those who made some big strides in recent weeks, Harry McKay, Paddy Dow, Cameron Polson and Caleb Marchbank have all made very strong gains in the last few weeks.

Over the coming days I will post some analysis of the entire journey, and don't fret, I will continue to track our growth as the rebuild transitions into a competitive stage.

 

[Magruder]

So who will Carlton beat to start climbing?

Everybody (eventually)

 

[Juddernaut08]

The more I read and watch, the more I am convinced we need to pick Jack Lukousisus at pick 1.

If we were starting a team from scratch he'd be the easy choice for pick 1 for us.

I think Walsh and Smith will be very good players, but the thought of Lukousius, Charlie and McKay as an elite, mobile forwardline is too tasty to pass up --- especially in this era where they are trying to bring back the 6 back 6 forward setup.

Spend the rest of our trade assets hunting mids either through trade or draft.

 

[Arr0w]

The 66th game has come to an end. After a back half dip we managed to push back up in the average AFL Player Ratings, after dipping down to an average of 165 in Round 20, we made some solid gains to push back up towards 190 by the end of the season. Unfortunately our season has been hampered this year by a number of injuries, obviously the loss of Docherty's 400 odd missing from the squad has made a huge hole in our average and we've never reached the heights I projected we would this season.

Congratulations msut be given to those who made some big strides in recent weeks, Harry McKay, Paddy Dow, Cameron Polson and Caleb Marchbank have all made very strong gains in the last few weeks.

Over the coming days I will post some analysis of the entire journey, and don't fret, I will continue to track our growth as the rebuild transitions into a competitive stage. View attachment 552730

Flowers, you will continue with this analysis and like it!