Autopsy Trade 2018- The winners and losers

[raptalia]

Who were the big winners and the losers from the 2018 Trade week ?

The thing that really struck me was the movement of big names was toward Melbourne. Dylan Shiel (Essendon), Chad Wingard, Tom Scully (Hawthorn), Stephen May (Melbourne), Tom Lynch (Richmond), Dayne Beams(Collingwood), Mitch McGovern(Carlton) all went to Melbourne clubs. Not only that all, with the exception of Carlton, all were finals contenders last year and only Essendon and Carlton missed the eight.

We have the draft to go yet and the teams mentioned had some losses e.g. Melbourne lost Hogan and Hawthorn lost Burton but overall I think they gained from the draft. I would be very surprised if 2019 was not an all Victorian Grand Final. In fact after the Trade Week I can see Richmond, Collingwood, Melbourne and Hawthorn top four material with Essendon on their heels.

Where do I see Port after the Trade Week? There is no doubt that that our list has suffered major changes, some would say those changes are terminal. We have lost two good players and will rely heavily on the Draft to revitalise our list. We won't be easybeats but at this stage I cannot see us as finals material.

PS I realise that Draft sections were traded as well and they come into things but Draft recruits are not going to influence the state of play in 2019. In the longer term Port might benefit from draft picks 5, 10 and 15 but there may also be some short term pain associated with that.

 

[Pappagallo]

*Trade

 

[raptalia]

*Trade

Oops thanks for that.

 

[Pappagallo]

I think we helped Freo do pretty well with that pick swap. Despite losing Neale they came out winners, especially considering their hand of picks at the start.

 

[raptalia]

interesting that on FOX FOOTY Trade Wrap last night the Vics assessed the overall winner in the Trade Week and none of them went for Hawthorn. Not surprisingly they all picked Melbourne clubs but Essendon, Richmond and Melbourne got the nod as best performers.

 

[Holden Hillbilly]

PORT ADELAIDE

Who left: Jasper Pittard (North Melbourne), Jared Polec (North Melbourne), Chad Wingard (Hawthorn), Jack Hombsch (Gold Coast Suns)

Who arrived: Scott Lycett (West Coast), Sam Mayes (Brisbane Lions), Ryan Burton (Hawthorn)

Draft Picks (at the time of trade deadline): 5 (via Mayes trade), 10, 15 (via Wingard and Burton trade), 85

Nick Dal Santo says: “They lose a couple of players that they don’t want to lose in Wingard and Polec, while Pittard was a bit of the steak knives in the Polec deal. But they could make something really special out of Ryan Burton. He was already doing that at Hawthorn, but what he could be at Port is something special. I love the two-ruck combination with Lycett and Ryder, but my favourite part about what Port is doing is they’re still holding Picks 5, 10 and 15 in the national draft. We constantly hear about this internal battle of trying to get in front to draft these South Australian boys and they’re in the lead over Adelaide at the moment.”

Brad Johnson’s predicted ladder position: 4th

Nick Dal Santo’s predicted ladder position: 8th

Grade: C

https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/af...d/news-story/23a0e1591b29a78f0b8ed22270aa6cfb

 

[Macca19]

We are in a worse position than we started for premiership success next year, by a substantial way. In fact i'd say we've just put the nail in guys like Boak and Gray being premiership players.

Longer term we've got ourselves in a good position so that if we don't * up our first round picks this time then we should be able to set ourselves up. 3 first round talents plus Burton, throw in the top 5 pick we'll probably end up with next year and it should be the basis for the next attack at a flag in 4-5 years time.

 

[philthy05]

Freo probably one of the greatest trade periods I can remember

To come in with pick 6 and Neale and exit with

14,32, 43 hogan lobb colyer and conca is pretty amazing.

They will miss Neale but with some young mid prospects coming through and a spine that is looking pretty strong they can easily build a good finals side very quickly from here.

 

[Long live PAFC]

Freo probably one of the greatest trade periods I can remember

To come in with pick 6 and Neale and exit with

14,32, 43 hogan lobb colyer and conca is pretty amazing.

They will miss Neale but with some young mid prospects coming through and a spine that is looking pretty strong they can easily build a good finals side very quickly from here.

Yea they rebuilt their attack with young, talented forwards. Their midfield will be strong in the future. 9-13 next year but should be a finals contender the year after.

 

[Long live PAFC]

We are in a worse position than we started for premiership success next year, by a substantial way. In fact i'd say we've just put the nail in guys like Boak and Gray being premiership players.

Longer term we've got ourselves in a good position so that if we don't **** up our first round picks this time then we should be able to set ourselves up. 3 first round talents plus Burton, throw in the top 5 pick we'll probably end up with next year and it should be the basis for the next attack at a flag in 4-5 years time.

Yea I can’t see how this trade period fits with last year’s at all. Or how trading out of this draft and part of nexts is a good strategy. Even losing the players that we did, we still could have had a transformational trade/draft period and brought in 6-7 players across the first three rounds and actually fill a lot of our list gaps.

We have lost all of our best creative runners and our only back up KPD, with minimal ability to cover these losses.

 

[raptalia]

Yea I can’t see how this trade period fits with last year’s at all. Or how trading out of this draft and part of nexts is a good strategy. Even losing the players that we did, we still could have had a transformational trade/draft period and brought in 6-7 players across the first three rounds and actually fill a lot of our list gaps.

We have lost all of our best creative runners and our only back up KPD, with minimal ability to cover these losses.

Maybe some of the trade period was forced on us but I agree. Last year we went for experience whereas this year it seems to be all about youth. Maybe Ken and Co have had a major change of heart about our Premiership window? If so, let us hope that is not the only change.

Not that sure that bringing in six players across three rounds is better than three players in the first round. I guess it gets down to making the right selections at the Draft? If in three years time when we look back and we have drafted three gun players we can rate this trade weeks as a win. If we don't take the right players it will be another story

 

[Enviable Tradition]

We are in a worse position than we started for premiership success next year, by a substantial way. In fact i'd say we've just put the nail in guys like Boak and Gray being premiership players.

Longer term we've got ourselves in a good position so that if we don't **** up our first round picks this time then we should be able to set ourselves up. 3 first round talents plus Burton, throw in the top 5 pick we'll probably end up with next year and it should be the basis for the next attack at a flag in 4-5 years time.

Its tempting to say but people said the same about West Coast last year.

We have enough players who aged below their best last year and enough young guys who should improve to still be a chance to get right up there with a decent game plan and a bit of luck.

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[Enviable Tradition]

Maybe some of the trade period was forced on us but I agree. Last year we went for experience whereas this year it seems to be all about youth. Maybe Ken and Co have had a major change of heart about our Premiership window? If so, let us hope that is not the only change.

Not that sure that bringing in six players across three rounds is better than three players in the first round. I guess it gets down to making the right selections at the Draft? If in three years time when we look back and we have drafted three gun players we can rate this trade weeks as a win. If we don't take the right players it will be another story

We just target certain drafts and as you can see this year and with Marshall/SPP/Atley/Drew certain parts of certain drafts.

2017 we rated the middle if the draft.

Last year we didn't rate the draft.

This year we rated the top end.

Whether we get it right or not time will tell

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[Arsene Wenger]

Who were the big winners and the losers from the 2018 Trade week ?

The thing that really struck me was the movement of big names was toward Melbourne. Dylan Shiel (Essendon), Chad Wingard, Tom Scully (Hawthorn), Stephen May (Melbourne), Tom Lynch (Richmond), Dayne Beams(Collingwood), Jeremy McGovern(Carlton) all went to Melbourne clubs. Not only that all, with the exception of Carlton, all were finals contenders last year and only Essendon and Carlton missed the eight.

We have the draft to go yet and the teams mentioned had some losses e.g. Melbourne lost Hogan and Hawthorn lost Burton but overall I think they gained from the draft. I would be very surprised if 2019 was not an all Victorian Grand Final. In fact after the Trade Week I can see Richmond, Collingwood, Melbourne and Hawthorn top four material with Essendon on their heels.

Where do I see Port after the Trade Week? There is no doubt that that our list has suffered major changes, some would say those changes are terminal. We have lost two good players and will rely heavily on the Draft to revitalise our list. We won't be easybeats but at this stage I cannot see us as finals material.

PS I realise that Draft sections were traded as well and they come into things but Draft recruits are not going to influence the state of play in 2019. In the longer term Port might benefit from draft picks 5, 10 and 15 but there may also be some short term pain associated with that.

Mitch Mcgovern to Carlton.

Agree re the players going to Victoria. You can see Melb/Ess/Rich/Coll all being very strong next year.

 

[raptalia]

If the trend in this year's trading continues the AFL will have problem because all the top players will finish up in Melbourne. Then again that probably will not bother Gillion and his mates as they run the show like a VFL anyway.

 

[Pappagallo]

Mitch Mcgovern to Carlton.

Agree re the players going to Victoria. You can see Melb/Ess/Rich/Coll all being very strong next year.

Gil would be rock hard right now.

 

[raptalia]

Mitch Mcgovern to Carlton.

Agree re the players going to Victoria. You can see Melb/Ess/Rich/Coll all being very strong next year.

Thanks for that. Done

 

[Iwish]

Our next 2 years will come down to coaching and gamestyle even with the loss of chad, I still think we are finals material especially if hammer can come back ok. But i dont have enough confidence in ken that he can do it. No doubt though if we draft well our list should be in good shape in 4 or 5 years as i think we can replace the older guys like ebert, boak,dixon with players who will ultimately be better than these guys as long as their developed and coached properly

 

[Papa G]

I think Rankine is going to slide to the first SA club.

I just cant see anyone taking the risk.

Amy noises to the contrary are just moves to try and get a free pick in a pick swap IMO.

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What's the risk? Him wanting to come back to SA? Overblown I think.

 

[It Just Is]

We are in a worse position than we started for premiership success next year, by a substantial way. In fact i'd say we've just put the nail in guys like Boak and Gray being premiership players.

Longer term we've got ourselves in a good position so that if we don't **** up our first round picks this time then we should be able to set ourselves up. 3 first round talents plus Burton, throw in the top 5 pick we'll probably end up with next year and it should be the basis for the next attack at a flag in 4-5 years time.

Do you think we missed a trick not moving on any of our older midfielders?

Another year of an 8th-10th finish without getting game time into Atley and pick 10/15 is my worst case scenario.

 

[Macca19]

Its tempting to say but people said the same about West Coast last year.

We have enough players who aged below their best last year and enough young guys who should improve to still be a chance to get right up there with a decent game plan and a bit of luck.

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The big difference is West Coast lost a few old heads and lost NN during the year. Their form was driven by the core mid aged group of their list - Shepherd, Hutchings, Lycett, McGovern, Jetta, Darling, Gaff, Yeo, Sheed, Rioli in that 23-27 group.

Our form is driven by our older players who are only going to decline. We are heavily reliant on a 31yo Ryder, a 32yo Westhoff, a 31yo Gray and a 30yo Boak. We've just said goodbye to the only two near elite players in that core age group.

Anything can happen, but I can't see how we can beat a West Coast, Richmond, Collingwood etc to win a premiership next year.

 

[Macca19]

Do you think we missed a trick not moving on any of our older midfielders?

Another year of an 8th-10th finish without getting game time into Atley and pick 10/15 is my worst case scenario.

Would have much preferred we move on an Ebert from that older group.

 

[philthy05]

Would have much preferred we move on an Ebert from that older group.

Yep

Completely expendable and could be replaced by atley in the midfield next year

He is a poor fit in the midfield next to rocky and wines.

Next year his value will be down to a 4th rounder

 

[mic59]

Pretty much what could be expected but what really grinds my gears is that we were not aggressive enough. We lose Wingard and among other things we send Hawthorn our third and take their fourth. We include Pittard with Polec and demand nothing. We let Hombsch go for Adelaide's future fourth when we could have got a late future pick worth more. All these trades were going to go down and retention was not an option but we did not do the best we could. Our position for next year's f/s has worsened in losing our third which would be worth over 300 and acquiring 3 fourths which could each be less than 100.

 

[raptalia]

The big difference is West Coast lost a few old heads and lost NN during the year. Their form was driven by the core mid aged group of their list - Shepherd, Hutchings, Lycett, McGovern, Jetta, Darling, Gaff, Yeo, Sheed, Rioli in that 23-27 group.

Our form is driven by our older players who are only going to decline. We are heavily reliant on a 31yo Ryder, a 32yo Westhoff, a 31yo Gray and a 30yo Boak. We've just said goodbye to the only two near elite players in that core age group.

Anything can happen, but I can't see how we can beat a West Coast, Richmond, Collingwood etc to win a premiership next year.

I agree.

On top of that Charlie Dixon, Tom Rockliff, Hamish Hartlett, Brad Ebert all hit 29 next year. Our Premiership window if we have one is fast closing. We will really need picks 5,10 and 15 to work out and players like Marshall, Farrell and Atley to step up.