Opinion Trade Aggressively

[Frank J Moose]

in hindsight. Like I said.
In hindsight McGovern is a contested marking beast and a superb footballer, full of heart, effort and creativity.
It is not unreasonable to suggest that people who are paid money for the business of identifying good footballers could have been expected to identify McGovern as a good footballer.

Yet every recruiting expert did.

Until 44 in the rookie draft. Even the legendary recruiters at Geelong and Hawthorn passed on him at least 5 times.....

 

[TheMcManusNose]

Its interesting that in Pav's book he (our greatest ever player, carried the club on his back for 16 years, future legend and hall of fame walk up start, solid citizen, AFLPA Pres etc etc) rates Bond as one of the best football people he's known in that 16 years in the industry for smarts, work ethic etc.
In his book Pav is quite sparing with real praise and only singles out a few individuals that he genuinely rates and admires in the industry and Bond is one of them.
I wonder what all the genius's here know that Pav doesn't?

Let's not fall into that trap shall we? I'm sure many players have said similar things about managers and coaches who have ultimately become failures - whether that is because they are actually not that good or just the luck of the draw. I see the response to that as being well, let's just shut up shop here on any actual analysis and discussion because we don't have all the information. I don't think there's much merit in listing Pav's accomplishments there. Wayne Gretzky and Patrick Roy were two of the greatest hockey players (obviously in Gretzky's case) but are/were both terrible NHL coaches and talent evaluators. I'm sure someone's going to take vehement exception to that analogy but hey.

I made a post in the Bond thread about volume of KPP selections (and KPFs more specifically). We (I) like to talk about Adelaide and West Coast as models of KPP development, but really they draft or trade in equally as many spud units as us. The perception bias means we don't see that; who here can run down our entire list but doing the same for the Crows? Yeah nah.

This is where I think our failure is; the chase for the ready-made and established KPF that is very much embodied in the posts you see in these threads. Aaron Black is a spud, Casboult can't kick, why would we want him etc etc. Yeah, KPPs generally are spuds for the first 3-4 years of development. We haven't brought in enough Gumbletons - which is absolutely the right trade to make. 80% of the time they are spuds. 20% of the time you get a decent KPF out of them, the hens teeth of the AFL. Look at Adelaide's drafting and trading - their hit rate on KPPs is no better than ours, they've just brought in more of them by the means available to them.

Yeah, I can't remember any derision at all at the time.

More like "LOL Eagles just listed another fat campaigner LOL"

And I realise this is completely sarcastic but it illustrates what this board tends to think of every reserves player at another club who doesn't immediately waltz into the AFL as an 18 year old or isn't a Freo fan (actually McGovern might have been given his parentage).

That's where I think Bond's failure is too. No, of course I don't have all the information, so I could be horribly wrong and they've chased everyone and everything. But equally we have no proof that they have - the only firm evidence seems to suggest chasing an expensive, established KPP over the last ~5 years (Riewoldt, Cloke, Clark, Taylor, McCarthy etc) while being cool on the non-established variants. At the end of the day, it is indisputable that we are possibly the worst club in the league (Brisbane maybe?) at drafting, developing and trading for KPPs and KPFs specifically. That's on Bond, even if the excuses are fair and reasonable.

 

[DudleyDocker]

in hindsight. Like I said.
In hindsight McGovern is a contested marking beast and a superb footballer, full of heart, effort and creativity.
It is not unreasonable to suggest that people who are paid money for the business of identifying good footballers could have been expected to identify McGovern as a good footballer.

True E Shed. I've been asking my Real Estate agent for years to identify which suburbs I should invest in and he is crap at that too!

 

[apparentlydead]

At the end of the day, it is indisputable that we are possibly the worst club in the league (Brisbane maybe?) at drafting, developing and trading for KPPs and KPFs specifically. That's on Bond, even if the excuses are fair and reasonable.

Yeah but we have been fantastic at drafting, developing and trading for midfielders. I don't think that can possibly be disputed.

So, where does pure bad luck come in against inept strategy/identification?

 

[TheMcManusNose]

Yeah but we have been fantastic at drafting, developing and trading for midfielders. I don't think that can possibly be disputed.

So, where does pure bad luck come in against inept strategy/identification?

For me it comes back to the volume and 'spuds' argument. You need to be constantly bringing in enough to smooth over your bad luck. I don't think we've done that in the context of it being a clear need for nigh on 5 years. However the small sample size means you can't really be definitive about it.

 

[apparentlydead]

For me it comes back to the volume and 'spuds' argument. You need to be constantly bringing in enough to smooth over your bad luck. I don't think we've done that in the context of it being a clear need for nigh on 5 years. However the small sample size means you can't really be definitive about it.

I hear what you're saying, however it seems that we placed the emphasis on creating a monster midfield after seeing what one comprised of short people, (Bell, Carr et al), could do, and that emphasis left us with little wriggle room on talls.

We've done all right with rucks, have unearthed a future star, (imo), in A Pearce for the backline/swingman and if one of Houghton, Murphy, Gumbleton, Anthony, Tarrant etc had showed enough we wouldn't be having this conversation.

I think our desperation in the past has really bitten us hard and we are now gun shy in going for the Blacks and Casboults of this world.

When we have identified a real talent....read Cam McC and Harry Taylor for example, we have basically thrown the kitchen sink at them, for zero outcome.

I can't see what else we could have reasonably done without reverting back to close enough is good enough, which has hurt us so badly in the past.

 

[E Shed]

Let's not fall into that trap shall we? I'm sure many players have said similar things about managers and coaches who have ultimately become failures - whether that is because they are actually not that good or just the luck of the draw. I see the response to that as being well, let's just shut up shop here on any actual analysis and discussion because we don't have all the information. I don't think there's much merit in listing Pav's accomplishments there. Wayne Gretzky and Patrick Roy were two of the greatest hockey players (obviously in Gretzky's case) but are/were both terrible NHL coaches and talent evaluators. I'm sure someone's going to take vehement exception to that analogy but hey.

point taken. In this case I think the depth of character and the attention to detail Pav had brought to everything he does, as well as his inside knowledge gives him some credibility in terms of assessing his peers but you are right in principle.

Yet every recruiting expert did.

Until 44 in the rookie draft. Even the legendary recruiters at Geelong and Hawthorn passed on him at least 5 times.....

That just means more people are wrong, not that the conclusion is.

True E Shed. I've been asking my Real Estate agent for years to identify which suburbs I should invest in and he is crap at that too!

Which means he isn't as good as his job as he could be. Our recruiters get a lot right but that doesn't mean there mistakes are immune from criticism and hindsight is one tool we have to make evaluations after the facts are all revealed.

I'm not bashing our recruiters, you take the good with the bad but the neither should be off limits in a discussion.

 

[couldhavebeen]

E Shed I love your posts but the point posters are trying to convey is the frustrating thing with Fremantle (Bond ) is that he refuses to trade players for draft picks or opposition players . I understand that we have a culture of loyalty to the players that we have recruited and do everything we can for them BUT Fremantle would rather delist a player than trade him . Yes we have traded players for very little when they want to go back to Victoria for family reasons Roberton ,more games Palmer and Boughton or just games period Mitchie but those are the only players we have traded .
Hawthorn however trade aggressively for the players they see as improvement of their list and the same with players that haven't met their expectations . Hawthorn also are prepared to trade players for improved draft picks that they then keep or use to get the player that they want .
I and other posters are not saying that we should trade our future for peanuts or for short term gain but there is middle ground and Blind Freddy can see poor management decisions without a guide dog .

 

[E Shed]

I think our desperation in the past has really bitten us hard and we are now gun shy in going for the Blacks and Casboults of this world.

When we have identified a real talent....read Cam McC and Harry Taylor for example, we have basically thrown the kitchen sink at them, for zero outcome.

I can't see what else we could have reasonably done without reverting back to close enough is good enough, which has hurt us so badly in the past.

and thats it, in a nutshell. Spot on.

 

[E Shed]

E Shed I love your posts but the point posters are trying to convey is the frustrating thing with Fremantle (Bond ) is that he refuses to trade players for draft picks or opposition players . I understand that we have a culture of loyalty to the players that we have recruited and do everything we can for them BUT Fremantle would rather delist a player than trade him . Yes we have traded players for very little when they want to go back to Victoria for family reasons Roberton ,more games Palmer and Boughton or just games period Mitchie but those are the only players we have traded .
Hawthorn however trade aggressively for the players they see as improvement of their list and the same with players that haven't met their expectations . Hawthorn also are prepared to trade players for improved draft picks that they then keep or use to get the player that they want .
I and other posters are not saying that we should trade our future for peanuts or for short term gain but there is middle ground and Blind Freddy can see poor management decisions without a guide dog .

See Bushie's last post. He nailed it. We have done everything reasonably possible.
EXCEPT as you say from letting go of high value players, but in doing so we have created that culture of loyalty you mention which is why we've been able to keep players the calibre of Mundy from going home when they had big offers in their home state. Its a trade off.
But look at the players leaving other clubs in droves and tell me which you prefer.

 

[TheMcManusNose]

I think our desperation in the past has really bitten us hard and we are now gun shy in going for the Blacks and Casboults of this world.

When we have identified a real talent....read Cam McC and Harry Taylor for example, we have basically thrown the kitchen sink at them, for zero outcome.

I can't see what else we could have reasonably done without reverting back to close enough is good enough, which has hurt us so badly in the past.

Yeah I agree and it's that shyness that I have an issue with. With respect to our list situation this year (and arguably last year too) it's reached the point of ridiculousness. Close enough would have been better than this in my opinion.

 

[apparentlydead]

Yeah I agree and it's that shyness that I have an issue with. With respect to our list situation this year (and arguably last year too) it's reached the point of ridiculousness. Close enough would have been better than this in my opinion.

But what has it given us in the past?

Say we paid what North wanted for Black last week?

This place would have been in uproar.

Would you have felt better just because we did something?

And what if he turned out to another in a long line of our KPF busts? What have we gained?

I'd prefer the club to go full balls out at undeniable talent and miss out, than pay overs for someone who MIGHT come good, but probably won't.

It's a pretty classic managerial risk management model that we are following of late.

 

[couldhavebeen]

I'm expressing frustration from the outside looking in and Fremantle are not as professional as we wish it was but has improved vastly from where we have ever been .
I think the club needs to re examine how we go about procuring players that we see as an improvement on what we have . We have all seen the Club go after some high profile player but not land them because of many reasons but could it be that we haven't identified them early enough and opposition clubs have been talking to their managers years before any trade talk has appeared in the press .
The McCarthy deal looked so lame when he had signed a contract extension before we have tried to lure him home .

WE want Hogan but Hogan has signed a contract extension so I'm sorry we will never see him IMHO . Our recruiters need to be talking to the managers of any of last years top draft picks now with a view of possible recruitment before they extent their contract .

 

[UFO Tatsu]

I'm expressing frustration from the outside looking in and Fremantle are not as professional as we wish it was but has improved vastly from where we have ever been .
I think the club needs to re examine how we go about procuring players that we see as an improvement on what we have . We have all seen the Club go after some high profile player but not land them because of many reasons but could it be that we haven't identified them early enough and opposition clubs have been talking to their managers years before any trade talk has appeared in the press .
The McCarthy deal looked so lame when he had signed a contract extension before we have tried to lure him home .

WE want Hogan but Hogan has signed a contract extension so I'm sorry we will never see him IMHO . Our recruiters need to be talking to the managers of any of last years top draft picks now with a view of possible recruitment before they extent their contract .

Talk to McCarthy before he has even played a game?

 

[rodney hoo]

I'm expressing frustration from the outside looking in and Fremantle are not as professional as we wish it was but has improved vastly from where we have ever been .
I think the club needs to re examine how we go about procuring players that we see as an improvement on what we have . We have all seen the Club go after some high profile player but not land them because of many reasons but could it be that we haven't identified them early enough and opposition clubs have been talking to their managers years before any trade talk has appeared in the press .
The McCarthy deal looked so lame when he had signed a contract extension before we have tried to lure him home .

WE want Hogan but Hogan has signed a contract extension so I'm sorry we will never see him IMHO . Our recruiters need to be talking to the managers of any of last years top draft picks now with a view of possible recruitment before they extent their contract .

This is probably an unpopular opinion but you have my agreement. We were supposed to take McCarthy before Appness but GWS took Boyd then McCarthy before our 1st pick, either had to trade up the list in that draft or get to his manager and tell him to hang of signing to early.

 

[Mr Peabody]

WE want Hogan but Hogan has signed a contract extension so I'm sorry we will never see him IMHO.

He's been offered an extension but he hasn't signed it has he?

 

[Nickos66]

To raise another point of discussion, it's interesting that we've so firmly and publicly committed to bringing McCarthy home this time next year when:

1) We'll be chasing Hogan just as hard and if we're any chance he'll be given preference to any 1st round draft pick we're still capable of being allowed to trade
2) having traded out our 1st round pick this year we're only allowed to trade out 1 more in the next 4 years so if we're anywhere near the ballpark of #1 above.. well, you'd think our stance would probably soften on any McCarthy trade as a preference to Hogan, should that become a possibility.

 

[Banker]

True E Shed. I've been asking my Real Estate agent for years to identify which suburbs I should invest in and he is crap at that too!

Why would you ask a Real Estate agent for advice on investment? Their primary purpose is to sell houses.

If anyone you should be asking is RP Data, who dominate the analytics in the market.

 

[DudleyDocker]

Why would you ask a Real Estate agent for advice on investment? Their primary purpose is to sell houses.

If anyone you should be asking is RP Data, who dominate the analytics in the market.

That was an (apparently unsuccessful) attempt at humour.

 

[scon]

This is probably an unpopular opinion but you have my agreement. We were supposed to take McCarthy before Appness but GWS took Boyd then McCarthy before our 1st pick, either had to trade up the list in that draft or get to his manager and tell him to hang of signing to early.

Seems a legitimate criticism of how we have handled this.
The number of talls taken early in that draft took many by surprise and our recruiters miscalculated??Who knows what really went down but that's what it looks like??
But then McCarthy re-signing without us being in contact and making our interest clear by making a contract offer just has me shaking my head in confusion.
Do not understand,seems some kind of blundering naivety asleep at the wheel stuff.Don't get it!

 

[blue shark]

We should at least wait until all the trades, recruiting is done before having a go. We have excelled with later picks in the drafts, and uncovered
some absolute gems.
If we could of recruited Black, etc, for true market value, but you have to have an eye to the future, and now we have a war chest to unleash at a
later date.
If we do not attempt to improve key position stocks, then sure Bond and Co will come under fire, but if Pavlich remains, and we find another A Pearce
type, mature ager, we can finance a raid in the years to come..

 

[smokingjacket]

in hindsight. Like I said.
In hindsight McGovern is a contested marking beast and a superb footballer, full of heart, effort and creativity.
It is not unreasonable to suggest that people who are paid money for the business of identifying good footballers could have been expected to identify McGovern as a good footballer.

But then we did with Barlow so swings and roundabouts.

 

[smokingjacket]

Its interesting that in Pav's book he (our greatest ever player, carried the club on his back for 16 years, future legend and hall of fame walk up start, solid citizen, AFLPA Pres etc etc) rates Bond as one of the best football people he's known in that 16 years in the industry for smarts, work ethic etc.
In his book Pav is quite sparing with real praise and only singles out a few individuals that he genuinely rates and admires in the industry and Bond is one of them.
I wonder what all the genius's here know that Pav doesn't?

Not that his opinion is something to necessarily be treasured but Robbo admitted on 360 that we're one of the industry standards for list management.

There has been a few blues but the squad is in pretty good shape for continued success with a strong younger age bracket coming through. We need to replace two stars in arguably the most important positions to us in Pavlich and Sandilands and that won't be easy.

 

[rodney hoo]

Not that his opinion is something to necessarily be treasured but Robbo admitted on 360 that we're one of the industry standards for list management.

There has been a few blues but the squad is in pretty good shape for continued success with a strong younger age bracket coming through. We need to replace two stars in arguably the most important positions to us in Pavlich and Sandilands and that won't be easy.

Both these two are near irreplaceable, but the Hawks will soon also lose Mitchell and Hodge so it's a fact of footy. IMO Sandi has at least two more seasons in him.
Overall I think our recruiting staff have done well but certainly the key forward position we had to probably try and move earlier but it's easy from my lounge room.

 

[Okinakashi]

I find it interesting that everyone blames out list management team without taking into consideration the fact that GWS and GC had all their drafting concessions in the 2010 - 2013 drafts.

Sydney, Geelong and the Hawks already had good lists before 2010 and guess what - they've been the most successful teams in the last few years.

We were coming off a rebuilding phase and haven't been able to top up with top shelf draft picks. Hence we've been stuck in no-mans land. Add in the "I don't wanna live in Perth" factor and we've really been fighting with one hand tied behind our backs.

I reckon we've done a pretty good job considering!