List Mgmt. Trade and F/A - Part 3

[Gone Critical]

How many were predicting we'd (potentially) win a spoon when we made that trade?

It was a very unlikely senario at that time but there were a fair few other scenarios where that deal could go pear shaped. Us finishing on the bottom was the worst but not the only one.

How it turns out trading futures always has risk either way. At the time this trade appeared an unnecessary gamble that had more downside than upside. No matter where we finish now GWS will be ecstatic to have made the trade and end up with pick 1,2,3 or 4. I would much rather have it in our hands now and be trading it for something more substantial than we got.

I think therewas at the time an element of wanting good news immediately to offset the trading/cap disasters. It appears to have successfully appeased many but looking at it now was still the last bad decision made in an unprecedented run of them.

 

[vinnievavoom]

Hmm I get what you're saying, but truthfully I dont see us taking more than 3 players in this draft anyway. Two of those are Daicos and Dib, so it's all about what you do with that last pick. I'd also want to keep a list spot or two open for DFA options.

And maybe leave at least one spot available for next years MSD. We may end up having early access to a young talent that emerges mid season since we are likely to be bottom 6 next year.

 

[Jasper84]

I think a better way of looking at the value of pick 1 isn’t flags played in . These kids go to bottom teams so that is skewed. What is certain in the top 1, then top 5 then top 10 play earlier, play more games, win more AAs, B&Fs, individual awards. They are better players and no 1 pick has a very high strike rate at picking up a serious player.

Those differences are not as marked from say picks in the 20s and 30s compared to say picks in the 50’s. So if we had pick 1 then picked out 2 later picks /trades I think we have a better look than getting 3 kids in say the 20’s.

We are already one of the 4 worst clubs when you look at access to top 10 and then 20 picks over the last 6 drafts. Our kids from the last 2 seasons show promise but I would still prefer the youth of most other clubs compared to us. We need some more class to add to the players aquired in recent years who will mostly turn out to be soldiers.

Individual awards count for nothing when it comes to winning a premiership. It's the Judd theory of relativity. A gun player can win all the awards they want, it doesn't ensure team success.

The key to this system is to have a large group of similarly aged players drafted and developed at the same time in a stable club environment. The class is added through free agency when the player is a known quantity. Its more long term but allows for a greater window.

The problem is that we don't really have the metric of what draft picks a club is willing to give up for a single top 3 pick, because they don't have the stones to put it out there. At a guess, I would say something like two picks in the teens and one in the twenties.

The unanswerable question is would a side be better with JUH or all of Henry, McCrae and Poulter?

 

[Scodog10]

It requires a whole new way of thinking when it comes to valuation of picks and players, which the AFL doesn't seem ready for. Currently we put a higher value on picking one kid projecting to become a star over three kids projected to be good players. This is despite us requiring a minimum of 22 players to win a premiership. Not too mention putting all your eggs in one basket and hoping said basket doesn't get injured. In the past 20 years only 2 number one draft picks have won premierships. One was Hodge and one was Boyd who was traded for pick 7 anyway. Essentially you are hoping for a Dusty when there has only been one Dusty before.

This doesn't even take into account one or more of your later picks potentially doing better than expected and increasing their trade value.

The logic is sound in the NBA and soccer but that's because one player's impact can elevate a team to a championship. Not so in team sports with more than 11 players. A similar study on the NFL found that there was a greater chance of success if the club traded down for multiple second round picks every year. But they don't do it because of the stigma of doing something different.

Yeah the logic is sound, but look at us relative to the rest of the current bottom 6 we’re the only club trending down. The others have all had multiple years access to high end draft picks and are going to reap the rewards. Next year it’ll be between us, Hawthorn, West Coast and Richmond with it unlikely that WC and Richmond fall that hard that quick and Hawthorn’s finish probably dictated by the coaching situation.

Any other year I’d be open to it, but with 2021 an average draft and 2022 looking extremely bleak we’d be fools to go again.

 

[Rusty Beam]

Hmm I get what you're saying, but truthfully I dont see us taking more than 3 players in this draft anyway. Two of those are Daicos and Dib, so it's all about what you do with that last pick. I'd also want to keep a list spot or two open for DFA options.

Unless we can somehow bundle our picks at the moment I see us needing to use anywhere up to 5-6 picks to cover bid matching. Therefore we will need at least that many list spots open heading into the ND.

 

[jackcass]

Good question! Probably none. However we had just traded Treloar, Phillips and Stephenson and replaced them with kids. Our senior players were touching 30, coming off significant injuries or injury prone.

Like, I didn't think we were finishing last, but I didn't think we were going up.

Even with all the turmoil of the preseason, I was still thinking if things went our way we could make the 8. Even the most pessimistic were mostly 9-12

 

[sr36]

Then we probably not got Mccrerry in that Situation

McCreery pick wasn't affected by that trade - the trading of our second did impact it though.

 

[ZEV]

It requires a whole new way of thinking when it comes to valuation of picks and players, which the AFL doesn't seem ready for. Currently we put a higher value on picking one kid projecting to become a star over three kids projected to be good players. This is despite us requiring a minimum of 22 players to win a premiership. Not too mention putting all your eggs in one basket and hoping said basket doesn't get injured. In the past 20 years only 2 number one draft picks have won premierships. One was Hodge and one was Boyd who was traded for pick 7 anyway. Essentially you are hoping for a Dusty when there has only been one Dusty before.

That is an amazing stat that got me thinking.... How many top 5 picks in the past ten years have become premiership players... All I can come up with is Boyd Bontempelli and Stringer...

 

[Harry O]

McCreery pick wasn't affected by that trade - the trading of our second did impact it though.

It was indirectly. The 2 early second rounders we got from GWS we ended up trading again a few times to mid second round and we got some extra picks in the 2020 draft and future picks as a result. Which helped us get an extra pick in 40’s for McCreery

 

[SchuPie]

Trading of the 1st rounder hasn’t worried me too much - in fact, has made the season more enjoyable. No tanking, wanting to win each week (instead of some part of the brain saying let’s pick first)
And unlike our picks spent on Beams / Ads / Stevo (yeah I know we got a little back but not value), at least we bought some future rather than throwing them away
I’d rather get burnt this way

 

[sr36]

It was indirectly. The 2 early second rounders we got from GWS we ended up trading again a few times to mid second round and we got some extra picks in the 2020 draft and future picks as a result. Which helped us get an extra pick in 40’s for McCreery

I'd need to double check, but I'm pretty sure that we didn't get any extra 2020 picks with those trades, only 2021 picks and the picks we used to trade up for where Mcreery was taken was left overs from matching Reef. - we got a lot of those points from trading our future second at the beginning of the draft.

 

[sr36]

Trading of the 1st rounder hasn’t worried me too much - in fact, has made the season more enjoyable. No tanking, wanting to win each week (instead of some part of the brain saying let’s pick first)
And unlike our picks spent on Beams / Ads / Stevo (yeah I know we got a little back but not value), at least we bought some future rather than throwing them away
I’d rather get burnt this way

It's a good point. The endless cries to tank would have been unbearable.

 

[What is a cakewalk]

Trading of the 1st rounder hasn’t worried me too much - in fact, has made the season more enjoyable. No tanking, wanting to win each week (instead of some part of the brain saying let’s pick first)
And unlike our picks spent on Beams / Ads / Stevo (yeah I know we got a little back but not value), at least we bought some future rather than throwing them away
I’d rather get burnt this way

Great point. It was increasingly frustrating in 19 and 20 knowing we'd gone all in and realising the team was still not good enough and missing fundamental pieces. Great to just try and win every week with no lingering whispers wondering how good it'd be to get pick 1 and daicos.

On SM-G781B using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[HFF]

Good to see David King continue to talk trash about our list build as if we are a shoo-in to win the spoon....especially after a North win coincidentally

 

[TakingThePies]

Good to see David King continue to talk trash about our list build as if we are a shoo-in to win the spoon....especially after a North win coincidentally

David King always want to put the boot in. He's a w***er.

 

[kpsmagpies]

We still get Nick Daicos, all we are doing is paying the right price for him and don’t get the advantage of the F&S, we do get him at a discount from a points perspective. We also have a year of development into Poulter and McMahon that were the result of trading next years first. It’s not all that bad, Poulter is looking to be a bargain IMHO and McMahon we won’t be sure about for a year or two but like any kid his size they take some time.

Yeah I understand we still get daicos and north or hawks would have bid on him anyway, and absolutely love watching the kids we got in this year. It’s more the team we traded with end up getting pick 1 AND make us pay, can’t say you won’t have some dim witted Collingwood hating mates that won’t bring that up for the next 15 years.
On McMahon I spoke to Chris Mayne just before the season and he had big wraps on the kid, said he is years off but his pace, agility and explosive leap really had him excited and thought along with Henry (who he had even bigger wraps on) would create some headaches going forward so all is not lost!


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[Leviathan Pie]

Potentially finishing last, and trading away our would-be pick 1 (if it were to be). Could be the most Collingwood thing done of all time.

 

[sr36]

A sliding doors moment where the AFL never allowed future pick trading would be interesting, as i reckon we've stuffed up every trade we've done involving a future pick.

 

[Moore of the Same]

A sliding doors moment where the AFL never allowed future pick trading would be interesting, as i reckon we've stuffed up every trade we've done involving a future pick.

Would love to see pick protections introduced like in the NBA. Hypothetically if we had a top 5 protection on this years pick, we could have Poulter, McMahon and a top pick to trade away again this year!

 

[Kappa]

Good to see David King continue to talk trash about our list build as if we are a shoo-in to win the spoon....especially after a North win coincidentally

Well he ain't wrong, our list is a mess and now we're finishing in the bottom 2 and have traded out our 1st and 2nd round picks...

 

[Matt_352]

Well he ain't wrong, our list is a mess and now we're finishing in the bottom 2 and have traded out our 1st and 2nd round picks...

Well when you put peanuts in charge

 

[Moore of the Same]

Well he ain't wrong, our list is a mess and now we're finishing in the bottom 2 and have traded out our 1st and 2nd round picks...

Happy days!

 

[10571z]

Well he ain't wrong, our list is a mess and now we're finishing in the bottom 2 and have traded out our 1st and 2nd round picks...

We traded it knowing we were getting one of the best players in the draft regardless.

I agree it’s disgraceful but not the end of the world.

I can’t fathom how bad Phillips, Treloar and Stevos contracts were 16 other clubs couldn’t have been slightly interested in taking them on.

 

[Gone Critical]

Individual awards count for nothing when it comes to winning a premiership. It's the Judd theory of relativity. A gun player can win all the awards they want, it doesn't ensure team success.

The key to this system is to have a large group of similarly aged players drafted and developed at the same time in a stable club environment. The class is added through free agency when the player is a known quantity. Its more long term but allows for a greater window.

The problem is that we don't really have the metric of what draft picks a club is willing to give up for a single top 3 pick, because they don't have the stones to put it out there. At a guess, I would say something like two picks in the teens and one in the twenties.

The unanswerable question is would a side be better with JUH or all of Henry, McCrae and Poulter?

I think we are arguing slightly different things here. I agree individual awards don’t win flags but I am looking at what the best metric is to judge the value of draft picks.

Flags doesn’t really make sense because all the team variables involved render it meaningless. To me looking at the averages of when a first game is played, how many games are played, how often individual awards are won on average etc. All that’s doing is trying to give you a relative value of one draft pick number v another based on the history of those picks. It’s not a method for assessing how to build a successful team.

If you believe you can attach a relative value to draft picks, which is pretty clear you can, then trying to build a successful team using relatively low value draft picks to assemble
your list compared to the vast majority of your opposition sides is a big ask.

As you say there are other things you have to do to create success other than have highly rated recruits. But if you are poorly off in the highly rated recruit numbers you have put yourself behind the 8 ball in the list build stakes and will have to outperform your opposition in the other metrics required, coaching, development, culture etc just to catch up let alone go past them.

This is where we are in trouble in my opinion and it’s why we are likely to need all the top end talent we can access in the nest few drafts.

 

[Scritchyscroony]

That is an amazing stat that got me thinking.... How many top 5 picks in the past ten years have become premiership players... All I can come up with is Boyd Bontempelli and Stringer...

Martyn, Cotchin, Rance, Kennedy, Gaff