List Mgmt. Trade and F/A - Part 3

[jackcass]

I was simply agreeing with previous poster's comment that we traded this year's first round pick on a flawed assumption that we were not going to slide down the ladder and, consequently, received less than fair value for it. It was a costly mindset fail from our list managers. They're paid the big bucks to stay cool-headed and trade dispassionately, not get sucked in to the trap of thinking that we'll only ever move upwards.

Who has ever said that?

I think that might be just your flawed assumption.

 

[Silky23]

That sort of thinking saw us load up on 5 of the first 31 kids taken in the 2020 draft and ensure we'll still end up with 1 of the top kids in the draft this year.

That’s what we need to be reminding ourselves about. 5 top 30 kids in the country one year and the #1 kid of a lesser crop the year after.

6 total kids taken plus Dib this year hopefully so 7, and most of them getting games already which means development, is only a good thing in my opinion. We get pick 2 we don’t get either of Horne or Darcy, probably take a flier at pick 4 once it gets to us or we reach on a guy who’s probably not worthy of that pick. And we wouldn’t be trading pick 4 for a FA as our cap isn’t ready to take that on yet.

So why are most complaining? We have our first for next year at this stage and next year looking like a good year for KPF talls. Jump on and enjoy.

Nick, Dib, Reef, Fin, McCreery, Poulter, McMahon plus Begg, Ginnivan, Chugg and whomever we pick up this off-season, is a beautiful platform to build from with our kids. Out of the 10 you probably have a hit with 3 of them being very good AFL footballers, 3-4 of them are good serviceable footballers and maybe 2/3 don’t work out. That’s 6/7 first 22 players to go along with our current crop of 11-12 very good senior level players. We pick up a FA or two and some DFA and we are back where we want to be.

 

[Dead Eye Didak]

Thank you brother.

 

[sr36]

Great Q, this is how I would play it.

Once we get Daicos, offer our future first (sell it as if we are projecting toward a bottom 6 finish to other clubs) for a pick where we can land a KPP this year and get a future first back the other way.

EG
- I would start with Freo @ pick 8 (which will slide back to 10) they will have carlton's pick 6 and they believe they will move up the ladder next year. I would try and trade our future 1st and 2nd round pick for their pick 10 and future first.
- I would also try the same with the Saints as they believe they will push up the ladder next year.

I think a few clubs fit into this bracket and I think we have a real chance in cashing in 2 first rounders for the price of 1 that will aid the rebuild.

ROUND ONE
1	North Melbourne
2	GWS Giants (received from Collingwood in 2020)
3	Gold Coast
4	Adelaide
5	Hawthorn
6	Carlton
7	Richmond
8	Fremantle
9	St Kilda
10	West Coast
11	Essendon
12	GWS Giants
13	Sydney
14	Western Bulldogs
15	Brisbane
16	Richmond (received from Geelong in 2020)
17	Port Adelaide
18	Brisbane (received from Melbourne in 2020)

ROUND TWO
19	Gold Coast (part of assistance package in 2019)

I'd like it, but I can't see it happening.

We're not like North this year, where everyone knew they were going to be awful. Still a fair bit of talent on our list, I don't think clubs would assume we'll have a top 4 pick. So then when you factor in the have now discount, I just can't see any club going for a deal like that.

 

[Jasper84]

This is what I see as a general picture. I dont follow Hawthorn so could be way off the mark.

They were in contention mode - very rarely had top 10 picks. So did not have access to the elite talent of that particular year.

The plan was to still try and get top end talent in the door……so they traded for players previously selected at high end of draft…….those players wer often imperfect (injury history / failed to deliver)…..they backed in their medical department and development people to maximise that talent.

ORourke deal was a risk that clearly backfired……not sure who gws picked up with pick 19.

We are at a different stage in our journey, so GW might be a bit more conservative.

Yeah. At the time Hawks had the goodwill from premierships to keep taking swings at the trade table. I just think that the image of GW being a Doddoro like hardass at the trade table is incorrect. FWIW pick 19 ended up fluffed in classic Carlton fashion on Boekhurst, so that's nice.

 

[Mukesh]

Obviously I was arguing for his type, not his specifics.

hhhmmmm.... obvious to you I suppose... too subtle for me..

 

[Everybody Panic]

Looking back over past drafts, there's not a lot that have great amounts of quality KPF picks in the top ten. The king boys year and last year with Logan Mac and the Adelaide pick being the exception. Future scouting becomes pretty important as there might not even be a top 15 KPF prospect next year.

In 2016 for example Todd Marshall

4

Todd Marshall

Age

27

Ht

198cm

Wt

94kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

9.0

2star

K

6.4

3star

HB

2.5

2star

M

3.3

3star

T

2.5

4star

G

1.1

4star

D

8.9

2star

K

7.1

3star

HB

1.8

1star

M

3.8

4star

T

3.0

4star

G

1.1

5star

D

9.6

3star

K

5.6

3star

HB

4.0

3star

M

3.0

3star

T

2.4

4star

G

1.6

5star

was the first KPF picked in the late teens. And I don't think he'd solve much of our problems ATM.

 

[Robroy22]

My only concern is when something is too good to be true it usually is…is there some sort of behavioural or life style issue that Geelong are concerned about. Or is it that they are willing to sacrifice long term success for a tilt at a premiership. If he has the attitude to realise his potential I’d trade Lynch for him

There's no behavioural or lifestyle issues with Blake. He's a solid citizen and he learns quickly. Geelong was bursting at the seams list wise and he was deemed the unlucky one to make way at the time. His form and flexibility interstate would be no surprise to anyone at "Catland" but once again I doubt they have the list space to fit him back in.....its time for some lucky club to pick him back up.
(I'd be very surprised if Freo hadn't already invested in him)

 

[Knightmare]

Thanks for the insight, you’ve got me sold! Dib looks like a very good prospect from what I’ve seen in the VFL against big bodies. Hopefully we pick him up for a junk pick.

Dib is about as lively and enthusiastic as you'll see. He's small, but oh my does he have a go! He'll tackle and pressure relentlessly and attack the ball as hard as anyone. As other prospects are growing on me, I'd ideally not have to match, but grudging would accept using a late pick for him if a bid does come for him.

 

[well left]

6 total kids taken plus Dib this year hopefully so 7, and most of them getting games already which means development, is only a good thing in my opinion. We get pick 2 we don’t get either of Horne or Darcy, probably take a flier at pick 4 once it gets to us or we reach on a guy who’s probably not worthy of that pick. And we wouldn’t be trading pick 4 for a FA as our cap isn’t ready to take that on yet.

I think this is a key point people aren’t looking at. At the time we’d shed plenty through retirement and the trade period and we would have known we we’re going to be tight cap wise for a while. Clearly we didn’t think we were going to finish that low but I’d say we knew we weren’t going to be able to trade it this year for an established star like a Cerra. And pushing it back again this year to next year would only hold our development back 2 years.

We needed to get talent back through the door to fasttrack the rebuild.


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Knightmare]

Thoughts on Krueger and Riccardi?

In a word, Riccardi yes, Kreuger no.

Riccardi is underutilised and would be a walk-up start in the best-22. In defence, there are better options than Kreuger this offseason with a simply incredible number of good options available - be it on opposition lists or state leaguers.

 

[Quicky]

In a word, Riccardi yes, Kreuger no.

Riccardi is underutilised and would be a walk-up start in the best-22. In defence, there are better options than Kreuger this offseason with a simply incredible number of good options available - be it on opposition lists or state leaguers.

What about as key forwards?

 

[jackcass]

That’s what we need to be reminding ourselves about. 5 top 30 kids in the country one year and the #1 kid of a lesser crop the year after.

6 total kids taken plus Dib this year hopefully so 7, and most of them getting games already which means development, is only a good thing in my opinion. We get pick 2 we don’t get either of Horne or Darcy, probably take a flier at pick 4 once it gets to us or we reach on a guy who’s probably not worthy of that pick. And we wouldn’t be trading pick 4 for a FA as our cap isn’t ready to take that on yet.

So why are most complaining? We have our first for next year at this stage and next year looking like a good year for KPF talls. Jump on and enjoy.

Nick, Dib, Reef, Fin, McCreery, Poulter, McMahon plus Begg, Ginnivan, Chugg and whomever we pick up this off-season, is a beautiful platform to build from with our kids. Out of the 10 you probably have a hit with 3 of them being very good AFL footballers, 3-4 of them are good serviceable footballers and maybe 2/3 don’t work out. That’s 6/7 first 22 players to go along with our current crop of 11-12 very good senior level players. We pick up a FA or two and some DFA and we are back where we want to be.

Yeah, I think some just seem anchored in the negatives. I'd have loved 5 of the top 20 last draft, Daic's and our 2021 1st this year. Didn't happen, but it's not all bad.

 

[Knightmare]

What about as key forwards?

Riccardi is the better key forward, and better at both ends for that matter. Kreuger has played forward in the past but has not shown the same level of aptitude before his move back.

If looking for a backup plan, a Levi Casboult would be adequate. Casboult I'm a lot more interested in as a key defender actually and see that as the way to extend his career, but as a stop gap up forward could be another serviceable alternative if he can get his body right next year and then from there we'll have the 2022 draft to get a good one for the long term.

 

[TradeDraft]

Reading on the Draft and Trade Board a few people think Lipinski will choose us

 

[The Royal Sampler]

How would you rate the Tom Mitchell trade?

 

[Quicky]

Riccardi is the better key forward, and better at both ends for that matter. Kreuger has played forward in the past but has not shown the same level of aptitude before his move back.

If looking for a backup plan, a Levi Casboult would be adequate. Casboult I'm a lot more interested in as a key defender actually and see that as the way to extend his career, but as a stop gap up forward could be another serviceable alternative if he can get his body right next year and then from there we'll have the 2022 draft to get a good one for the long term.

I'd like us to target two of Schlensog, Krueger and Riccardi this year.

Schlensog in particular is a no brainer as a DFA.

Whose the pick of the key forwards in 2022?

 

[Fruit]

That’s what we need to be reminding ourselves about. 5 top 30 kids in the country one year and the #1 kid of a lesser crop the year after.

6 total kids taken plus Dib this year hopefully so 7, and most of them getting games already which means development, is only a good thing in my opinion. We get pick 2 we don’t get either of Horne or Darcy, probably take a flier at pick 4 once it gets to us or we reach on a guy who’s probably not worthy of that pick. And we wouldn’t be trading pick 4 for a FA as our cap isn’t ready to take that on yet.

So why are most complaining? We have our first for next year at this stage and next year looking like a good year for KPF talls. Jump on and enjoy.

Nick, Dib, Reef, Fin, McCreery, Poulter, McMahon plus Begg, Ginnivan, Chugg and whomever we pick up this off-season, is a beautiful platform to build from with our kids. Out of the 10 you probably have a hit with 3 of them being very good AFL footballers, 3-4 of them are good serviceable footballers and maybe 2/3 don’t work out. That’s 6/7 first 22 players to go along with our current crop of 11-12 very good senior level players. We pick up a FA or two and some DFA and we are back where we want to be.

Who is Dib?

 

[legendstatus]

Riccardi is the better key forward, and better at both ends for that matter. Kreuger has played forward in the past but has not shown the same level of aptitude before his move back.

If looking for a backup plan, a Levi Casboult would be adequate. Casboult I'm a lot more interested in as a key defender actually and see that as the way to extend his career, but as a stop gap up forward could be another serviceable alternative if he can get his body right next year and then from there we'll have the 2022 draft to get a good one for the long term.

If Riccardi is a better key forward, then Kreuger must be really bad because Riccardi has done SFA so far!


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[CPH12]

If Riccardi is a better key forward, then Kreuger must be really bad because Riccardi has done SFA so far!


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

Is Riccardi injured, if not I am surprised he can't get a game in this gws team

 

[Ugene41]

Totally agree. When it comes to trading future picks, our list managers need to assume that we'll finish last and mentally value our picks on that basis, rather than assuming we'll rebound up the ladder, which leads to wrongly discounting their value.

Imagine what we could have traded our first rounder for this year on draft night if we'd held our nerve, rather than trading it away in a panic last year. We could have secured two first rounders for it, burned one on Daicos and landed a genuine first round level talent with the second one. Instead we got two picks in last year's second round and a big points deficit (or more forced trades) to secure Daicos.

One first rounder isn't enough for Daicos. Matching Daicos will burn one first rounder and push the other one back to pick 50+.

We also got 800-900 points to use this year from the future picks we got from trading our pick 2 into last year's draft. That's basically the equivalent of an early second and maybe 300 points less than if we traded back to a late first rounder to burn on Daicos.

GC have put their pick 3 on the table this year for some later picks. It will be interesting to see what they can get for them. Whatever they get, we would likely have gotten less given, as we clearly learnt last year, you get screwed when you have no leverage. Unlike GC we would've been forced to trade our pick 2 whereas they have the option of keeping it if they don't get a good enough offer.

 

[gouki88]

Who is Dib?

Youseff Dib, one of our NGA kids

 

[Jen2310]

Who is Dib?

 

[tranquilli lace]

Mitch Wallis to help plug a hole in our forward line and play a leadership role? High integrity bloke who would be a great addition. Thoughts?

 

[Fruit]

Youseff Dib, one of our NGA kids

Thanks. Is he going to be special? I’ve noticed his name come up a bit on this thread.