List Mgmt. Trade and F/A - Part 3

[Seedsfan]

How convenient to set the bar arbitrarily at 15 points when we had a few wins by around 1 goal higher than that.

Because if you finish outside of 2 and a half goals you aren’t really in the game.

 

[snagbreac]

Sanderson was a leading cause for concern with coaching. He initiated a disjointed game plan and was known to butt heads with other coaches at Collingwood except Bucks, who sided with him. It's good that Fly has worked with Lippa and Bolton seems to be a genuine sort.

 

[The Royal Sampler]

At the risk of being to late already and just sounding salty. Was anyone else underwhelmed by available footage of Stephens? Could be more to the reason that he’s one of 2 players who hasn’t really played from the top 10 of his draft year

One that I’d be pretty happy slipping through to the keeper

I thought it underwhelming for a top 5 pick, certainly, but he has pace and we wouldn’t have been paying a top 5 pick for him. Happy to back the club either way on Stephens.

 

[Countrypie]

Regardless, even if we turn those two games into wins we are finishing ahead of Hawthorn and probably ahead of Carlton, as our % would have been improved. Leaving us 13th, behind Richmond, while debuting the most players in the competition. Not a bad spot to be in.

One of the variables that is rarely taken into account is the comparative difficulty of the draw. It's something that is a bit of a moveable feast during the year and may affect ladder position by several rungs one way or the other. I CBF doing that analysis but suspect a team like Essendon probably had an easier run than St Kilda for example. I'd reckon our draw was perhaps a bit more difficult than teams around us. Conversely it will probably work in our favour this season

 

[Scodog10]

Regardless, even if we turn those two games into wins we are finishing ahead of Hawthorn and probably ahead of Carlton, as our % would have been improved. Leaving us 13th, behind Richmond, while debuting the most players in the competition. Not a bad spot to be in.

Precisely we’re not in a good spot either so that feels like a good way of putting it. Results flipping is something I was pondering the other day (that Brisbane one feels like the real sliding doors result) and what the ramifications were for that trade last year…

Perhaps I erred with my earlier post as well because the thrust of it should have been our good injury run being played down. I’m almost certain it unfortunately won’t be repeated in 2022 and it concerns me that some on here consider 2021 a bad year on the injury front…

 

[Scodog10]

One of the variables that is rarely taken into account is the comparative difficulty of the draw. It's something that is a bit of a moveable feast during the year and may affect ladder position by several rungs one way or the other. I CBF doing that analysis but suspect a team like Essendon probably had an easier run than St Kilda for example. I'd reckon our draw was perhaps a bit more difficult than teams around us. Conversely it will probably work in our favour this season

Timing of you’re matchups plays a part as well. If you’re a team that starts seasons slowly and hit a bunch of good teams you’re expected to lose too early the losses aren’t as significant as those against teams you should beat. A practical example for us was the GC and Hawthorn matches if they were flipped I think they’re two more likely wins than on the basis of player availability.

 

[Apex36]

How convenient to set the bar arbitrarily at 15 points when we had a few wins by around 1 goal higher than that.

Would you really count a 20+ point margin as a close win/loss? I wouldn’t tbh…

 

[snagbreac]

2022 shouldn't be a write off before it begins. Be realistic–it won't be a flag–but our list isn't anywhere near as bad as what people think it is. We won a lot more games than most 17th placed teams of the past decade.

 

[manicpie]

Timing of you’re matchups plays a part as well. If you’re a team that starts seasons slowly and hit a bunch of good teams you’re expected to lose too early the losses aren’t as significant as those against teams you should beat. A practical example for us was the GC and Hawthorn matches if they were flipped I think they’re two more likely wins than on the basis of player availability.

I'm not sure what you're trying to say. But didn't GC and Hawthorn both smash us?

 

[jathanas]

Moore was a massive loss, he makes us better, more drive from defense, blunts opposition attacks. When you couple that with what Howe brings to the table the sum of the two is greater than each individually. I am more bullish than most that we can rebound quickly, I believe we will be knocking on the door of the eight next year.

+ 1 on Moore.

This is not to underplay the holes in our KPF stocks or our midfield issues but we should fairly recognise that our position on the ladder reflected our crap circumstances more than it did our best potential.

 

[stormskye]

One of the variables that is rarely taken into account is the comparative difficulty of the draw. It's something that is a bit of a moveable feast during the year and may affect ladder position by several rungs one way or the other. I CBF doing that analysis but suspect a team like Essendon probably had an easier run than St Kilda for example. I'd reckon our draw was perhaps a bit more difficult than teams around us. Conversely it will probably work in our favour this season

This is true. However it does depend on the “8”. Last years top 8 teams in rich, eagles, saints and us fell off pretty hard. So any team playing them twice benefited. Then conversely melb, syd, ess etc all improved so any team playing melb twice last year seemed easy, this year...

 

[sr36]

Because if you finish outside of 2 and a half goals you aren’t really in the game.

It's not that simple. An 18 point win can be smashing where the other team gets some goals back after the game is over, or it can be a ripping contest where one team kicks the last 3 goals in the last 5 minutes.

 

[Chrispiesssss]

Brock Smith from the Lions likely to be delisted this year. Hasn’t debuted yet. However, I remember posters being keen during his draft year.

189cms. He could be a replacement for Crisp & Maynard.

Welcome to the Den, Brock Smith

The Lions have selected Brock Smith at the 2019 NAB Draft

www.lions.com.au

 

[Scodog10]

It's not that simple. An 18 point win can be smashing where the other team gets some goals back after the game is over, or it can be a ripping contest where one team kicks the last 3 goals in the last 5 minutes.

Absolutely! The Bulldogs loss and Carlton win were both around that 3 goal mark, but neither result was remotely close or likely to flip.

 

[stormskye]

Brock Smith from the Lions likely to be delisted this year. Hasn’t debuted yet. However, I remember posters being keen during his draft year.

189cms. He could be a replacement for Crisp & Maynard.

Welcome to the Den, Brock Smith

The Lions have selected Brock Smith at the 2019 NAB Draft

www.lions.com.au

If he’s a capable replacement for either I doubt he gets delisted mate . No idea about him tbh

 

[Chrispiesssss]

If he’s a capable replacement for either I doubt get gets delisted mate

Obviously he needs a further development. I had a look on the Brisbane board and apparently he’s a great defender, mover and intercepter. However, his kicking is the only concern.

Maynard & Crisp will play more midfield over the next few years. We need to find potentially 4 replacements for our backline in the next 3 years for Roughead, Howe, Crisp & Maynard.

Unless, we plan to play Crisp & Maynard in the backline. Ruscoe to replace Howe.

 

[stormskye]

Obviously he needs a further development. I had a look on the Brisbane board and apparently he’s a great defender, mover and intercepter. However, his kicking is the only concern.

Maynard & Crisp will play more midfield over the next few years. We need to find potentially 4 replacements for our backline in the next 3 years for Roughead, Howe, Crisp & Maynard.

Unless, we plan to play Crisp & Maynard in the backline. Ruscoe to replace Howe.

I may be in the minority. But I’d prefer Maynard and crisp in our backline. It’s our only elite line with all them there. I don’t see the advantage of moving either permanent to mid, and then trying to plug holes in defence. When noble and madge are best 22 there’s no depth. Just keep them in defence and develop mids. We have more midfield options coming through than capable defenders like Maynard and crisp. Adding daicos, with macrae and reef in development, potentially lipinksi on wing.

 

[Capital Magpie]

Ah, so win by 15 is losable but win by 18 is not. Gotcha.

Stay true to your formline, Mr Negative

 

[gouki88]

Stay true to your formline, Mr Negative

Comes up with some truly insufferable posting, doesn't he?

 

[Countrypie]

This is true. However it does depend on the “8”. Last years top 8 teams in rich, eagles, saints and us fell off pretty hard. So any team playing them twice benefited. Then conversely melb, syd, ess etc all improved so any team playing melb twice last year seemed easy, this year...

Absolutely. It's a bit of a hobby horse of mine. The draw is compromised. It doesn't effect the best team being the best team but it does effect the margins. Pure win loss performance is hard to compare one team to another because nobody has the same draw. % is often a better indicator but even then that can be distorted when teams get to play a team like GCS twice in their 1st year. I'd much refer that the draw went to a conference based model but I can't see that happening

 

[Forethought]

Let’s just hope that Norf and Tigers negotiations fall over with Coleman Jones and they walk home through the PSD. This allowing us to have no competition in walking in either Lipinski or Weed through the PSD .

 

[Couch Coach]

Brock Smith from the Lions likely to be delisted this year. Hasn’t debuted yet. However, I remember posters being keen during his draft year.

189cms. He could be a replacement for Crisp & Maynard.

Welcome to the Den, Brock Smith

The Lions have selected Brock Smith at the 2019 NAB Draft

www.lions.com.au

I prefer Ely Smith but we could pick up some fringe young guys like these.
Hopefully Tapping is on board and has the inside view on both Smiths.

 

[tranquilli lace]

Obviously he needs a further development. I had a look on the Brisbane board and apparently he’s a great defender, mover and intercepter. However, his kicking is the only concern.

Maynard & Crisp will play more midfield over the next few years. We need to find potentially 4 replacements for our backline in the next 3 years for Roughead, Howe, Crisp & Maynard.

Unless, we plan to play Crisp & Maynard in the backline. Ruscoe to replace Howe.

Can't kick? Hard no.

 

[Apex36]

Precisely we’re not in a good spot either so that feels like a good way of putting it. Results flipping is something I was pondering the other day (that Brisbane one feels like the real sliding doors result) and what the ramifications were for that trade last year…

Perhaps I erred with my earlier post as well because the thrust of it should have been our good injury run being played down. I’m almost certain it unfortunately won’t be repeated in 2022 and it concerns me that some on here consider 2021 a bad year on the injury front…

Volume wise our injury run wasn’t bad, absolutely, but when you have 3 of your top 5 players in Moore, Howe and Adams out for extended periods during the year it’s difficult to class this year as good on the injury front either…

 

[Chrispiesssss]

Can't kick? Hard no.

I believe you can fix bad kicking. Teach them to kick within their ability and look for the easier options.

FWIW, even Maynard & Crisp usually cost us a goal or two each game due to their kicking.