Absolutely we can bounce back quickly. The last 12 months would be eating Bevo up on the inside.
The building blocks are there, we just need to fill some gaps (inevitable when you lose so much experience all at once) and recruit smartly (a few kids and the right mature ages) and we'll be contending again.
After the disappointment of the Freo game - not playing our game again - it can be hard to be positive but actually I don’t see us as far away at all but a couple of our bets have to come off and we can’t keep the injury list we have and play finals. Richmond and others have shown that keeping a healthy list is essential. Our GF glory was not normal considering injuries but to be fair with the break before the finals most of our Best were available - with Bob the major exception.
Of the guys injured - some will take is forward quickly
1.- Libba - still a star was back in form before the injury. Will be back in 2019 and we are immediately much stronger
2- Picken is absolutely a best few players and hugely valuable - concussion situation look ominous though
3- Trengrove should be back soon - he is very significant as he gives us maturity at either end
4- Crozier - is definitely best 22 and a much higher kicking efficiency from the HBF. He also allows JJ to play wing.
5- Williams is coming along very well as the Marty Boyd Back pocket but I also wonder if he moves into the midfield at some stage as a big bodied mid with a good kick (recruited as a high possession mid - remember 52 possessions)
6- Adams is a walk up start at Fullback but the longer he is injured the stronger Naughton is getting - for now Adams adds a lot but this position looks good going forward. Collins was starting really show something before he was injured and there is a real value if he can come through as a 100kg defender - be nice to not see our defenders rag dolled.
7. Morris is arguably our best player and of course makes us much better. It is not just his individual ability but his management of the Back line - he stands there barking orders and our positioning is way better - not sure who can do this? Should be Wood but in games he is not as bossy. Cordy is the successor and continues to improve - still a fair way behind but is showing growth. Interesting is if Williams does move forward and Cordy and Young keep their current development going - Morris could move to playing smaller?
8- Redpath is important at the moment but he either went into Freo injured or got injured early - he was hobbling and looked terrible. Ultimately we need a CHF who can run and tackle - Schache is our bet here and if this works we have an important missing cog - also a very good kick for goal.
9. Smith is in my best 22 if fit- a goal kicking forward, great tackler, big game player and genuine inside mid. He changes the way the way our forward line works. With Dickson, Picken and Smith in the forward line we are completely different and great a locking the ball in for repeats - they also all have good scoring efficiency- wouldn’t that be nice. We can still get the ball in but without these guys can get it through the big ones. Lipinski, Honey and Jong last week are a long way off this. Billy G has been a surprise and may be something but still is too low in production.
10 - Dickson was injured early against Freo and is now 4+ weeks away. His movement, accuracy and tackling are essential. He still has a couple of years but really only have Fergus coming through - he also has smarts and may (like Dickson) may take a bit longer to be a viable replacement. We are certainly light in natural smaller forwards. Bonti solves this in part but is playing as a genuine KPF and we lose a lot out of the middle. Honey tries but can’t kick under pressure and has no goal sense. Disappointed we didn’t get Long.
Get 8 out of these ten (we will always have some injuries) and we play finals NOW and are in the mix - this is not blind faith but pure moneyball analysis - they are simply better producers than the kids holding their spots now.
Hunter is suspended but is a star and sorely missed.
Other improvements that add to us now and make us formidable with the returns above.
- Naughton and English have been rays of light.
- Ed Richards looks a star - and is tough, fast and skilled
- Toby is quickly moving up the ratings - could be anything
- Bailey Dale has had a little dip but that follows a year of major improvement - he has Speed and skill and will only get better
- Cordy just seems to rise to the challenge - he is a slow burn like his Master Morris but each year he gets stronger and more Confident.
- Daniel has also slowly progressed - has quietly put on significant muscle tone to improve his inside work - this
May have effected his production but with his incredible endurance in the end will be a much better player for it
- Young will be hard to keep out if he keeps improving the way he has - great mark and a smart player who has benefited from increased muscle. 5 kegs more and we have our Barrass/McGovern combo of Young/Naughton
- Macrae has emerged as the elite player most of us thought he would be. With Bonti moving forward he has taken the top job in the middle and has improved - if we can release Bonti and/or Dunks back into the midfield then our midfield is finals quality: Bont, Macrae, Libba (Smith-rotating), McLean, Dunkley (Jong-rotation), Dalhaus (Daniel-rotation) - Hunter, JJ and Dale on wings. Lipinski, Webb and Porter are coming through and each have shown some signs.
Roughy and Campbell are now coming back but not sure they walk in to the side. Would seem at the moment that English and Boyd are the preferred two at the moment. But I reckon we will rotate English for Roughy and Boyd for Campbell to keep the development of English and Boyd and have a strong tree brigade. English is clearly a future star if he stays fit. Roughy is not a star - doesn’t get enough taps, marks or goals) but we just seem to play better with him in the team - not sure specifically why.
I am still very confident on Boyd getting much much better - he could easily have had 3 but don’t understand how his kicking has dropped off so much since he was a great kick as a U18. Can only be fitness and confidence and the first can drive the second. Also needs
Some mongrel - he gets annoyed when his arms are held down and his is blocked but umpires can determine success - he needs to engage is defender and throw him around - push in the side - hip check hard - crash back with the flight. He is also still carrying puppy fit and has endurance but no ability to repeat burst. (needs to watch Stefan Martin to see the benchmark). Otherwise the Ruck work can bring a bad habit of being a tractor with little ability to really crash contests (aka the lumbering Ruck). He has lots of other good attributes and these can all be addressed.
So all the above are my submissions Your Honours for why we should not panic and will be back in the mix soon.