Mega Thread Trade and List Management discussion

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Pannalstaroz

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The last 3 drafts excluding Stringer, Macrae and Bont look at who we have taken.


Hrovat, Hunter, Prudden, Fuller, Honeychurch, McLean, Webb, Hamilton, Dale, Daniel and Cordy.

Only Webb and Cordy will fill a crucial void in our team in the future imo. The rest are battling with others to be the 20th, 21st and 22nd players picked in our team most weeks with Hunter as the only one who has well and truly emerged above that pack of later picks whom most of are similar players.

11 players there, 1 is a utility/HB, 1 is a slightly undersized KP, the rest are mids/small forwards. 9 picks of the same sort of player FFS.

I just don't get why we need to add more of these types to our list creating an even more unhealhier balance to the list and when half a dozen of these guys end up not getting a run in the team and want to leave, what do we get for them? Absolute peanuts or are delisted....... See Tutt, Howard, Fuller as examples

When you take 11 players with late picks in a developing team with time on your side that is short on quality KPP prospects what do you do? Oh lets just take more of the same, can't have enough class #Bulldogslogic

We are setting ourselves up for future finals failure if we continue to pick the same old smalls at the draft. Reminds me of what we did under Clayton/Eade and what Freo are going through currently.
Now list the guys over 6'5" we've drafted in the last 10 years. I'd rather 20 Caleb Daniel's before I draft another James Mulligan or Lukas Markovic. I agree that list profiling is important but you don't draft a tall for the sake of it. Get the best talent to the club and use any means at your disposal, even if that is the draft, to smooth out the list. With more trading, free agency and the gulf between the VFL and the AFL smaller than it has ever been (although it is still a gulf), there are many ways to fix your list, but drafting a tall who is most likely shit, for the sake of it, is crazy list management.
 

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Yojimbo

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For the Tall Vs Small protagonists, i did some research on KPF's
drafted from 2000 to 2014 back at the start of the year. I stuck
mainly to the players of note.

2014- Paddy McCartin (1), Peter Wright (8), Darcy Moore F/S (9)
Jayden Foster (63), Reece (the beast) McKenzie (77)
2013- Tom Boyd (1), Cameron McCarthy (14), Daniel McStay (25)
2012- Joe Daniher F/S (10), Spencer White (25), James
Stewart (27), Tim O'Brien (28), Mason Shaw (30), Michael
Close (32)
2011- Jonathon Patton (1), Adam Tomlinson (9)
2010- Sam Day (3), Thomas Lynch (11)
2009- John Butcher (8), Ben Griffiths (19), Sam Reid (38)
2008- Jack Watts (1), Tyrone Vickery (8), Liam Jones (32)
2007- Tom Hawkins F/S (41)
2006- Scott Gumbleton (2), Mitch Thorpe (6), Jack Riewoldt (13)
Chris Dawes (28), Kurt Tippett (32), Jesse White (79)
2005- Josh Kennedy (4), John Anthony (37)
2004- Jarryd Roughead (2), Lance Franklin (5), Travis Cloke F/S (39)
2003- None of note
2002- None of note
2001- None of note
2000- Nick Riewoldt (1), Justin Kosi (2), Drew Petrie (23).

What a list of greatness and quite a few of our trade targets from
recent history, i think there is something in that for all of us.Some
set the competition on fire and then others should probably have
set themselves on fire, but such is life.;)
 
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go you pups

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Now list the guys over 6'5" we've drafted in the last 10 years. I'd rather 20 Caleb Daniel's before I draft another James Mulligan or Lukas Markovic. I agree that list profiling is important but you don't draft a tall for the sake of it. Get the best talent to the club and use any means at your disposal, even if that is the draft, to smooth out the list.
Disagree

He has overdone it the last 3 years with later picks

If all you draft inside/outside mids, rebounders and small/medium forwards you create list deficiencies by taking too many of the one player

With more trading, free agency and the gulf between the VFL and the AFL smaller than it has ever been (although it is still a gulf), there are many ways to fix your list, but drafting a tall who is most likely shit, for the sake of it, is crazy list management.
That is the problem, like what me and BRWB and Mattdougie ramble on about all the time but no one else is game to criticise Dal here, that's basically saying every tall outside of the 1st round is shit so lets avoid them and take the safe option who will be "good" players, players like Honeychurch and Hrovat etc who are now on the outer with others knocking on the door who were drafted in 2014. If you keep taking the same safe types year after year after year then you end up losing 3-4-5 years of development in problem areas you have failed to previously identify and choose to not identify.



We have had multiple picks from the late first/early 2nd range to the 3rd/4th round over the last 3 years and we have only taken 1 KP and he was a FS.

No point listing Mulligan a rookie and Markovic a 4th rounder as examples Pann, they were picked where they were and performed to the probabilities of where they were picked. Talia stands as his highest picked KPP at 39 in 6 years on the job, FACT. We have had enough high picks in the 20-50 range recently to find and identify KPPs but your friend chooses to avoid them (only 4 KPPs taken in the ND in 6 years as the main man), there has been enough KPPs over the years taken in the 2nd/3rd rounds who come good and our recruiter imo does not do enough when it comes to these types of players

These are the list of talls taken by other clubs that are still in the AFL system that I believe were overlooked in 2012-13 when we had the opportunity to take and develop a tall considering the other talls who have been delisted or were traded recently such as Williams, Cordy, Talia, Markovic, Austin, Jones, Young. We only have had 3 blokes in Boyd, Hamling and Z Cordy replace them, while Morris and Minson are on their last legs too, we have minimal depth.

James Stewart, Tim O'Brien, Michael Close, Liam McBean, Mason Wood, Daniel Currie, Jack Hannath, Matt Tabener, Callum Sinclair, Kyle Hartigan, Jon Ceglar, Xavier Richards, Jack Frost, Sam Naismith, Tom Barrass, Alir Alir, Ben Brown, Jonathon Marsh, Joel Tippett, Dallas Willsmore, Max King, Cam Wood.

I've bolded players who probably will be good AFL players


As we have seen this year, good talls do not come cheaply, all of Carlisle, Dixon and Henderson were OOC this season and all demanded 1st rounders, us, Hawthorn and Carlton were in for Carlisle and missed out, half the clubs linked to good talls missed out. The probability of fixing a list problem through trade is a long and complicated expensive process and most likely there will be competition from other clubs that won't help your situation. If you take them at the draft then yeah only 1 in 3 may come good, but as we have seen with smalls like Tutt, Howard, Fuller, Schofield etc, they didn't come good either and I'm sure there will be more who won't come good from the surplus we have taken over the last 3 years, particularly 2012 and 2014.


These are crucial lost years in development we are going through and if we don't rectify list issues through the draft now then we may blow it come crunch time in a few years like we did under Eade, particularly in 08-09 when our players were fit and not carrying injuries.


No point having the best midfield in the comp but lose because of deficiencies in your big guys stocks say a Fremantle.
 

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For the Tall Vs Small protagonists, i did some research on KPF's
drafted from 2000 to 2014 back at the start of the year. I stuck
mainly to the players of note.

2014- Paddy McCartin (1), Peter Wright (8), Darcy Moore F/S (9)
Jayden Foster (63), Reece (the beast) McKenzie (77)
2013- Tom Boyd (1), Cameron McCarthy (14), Daniel McStay (25)
2012- Joe Daniher F/S (10), Spencer White (25), James
Stewart (27), Tim O'Brien (28), Mason Shaw (30), Michael
Close (32)
2011- Jonathon Patton (1), Adam Tomlinson (9)
2010- Sam Day (3), Thomas Lynch (11)
2009- John Butcher (8), Ben Griffiths (19)
2008- Jack Watts (1), Tyrone Vickery (8), Liam Jones (32)
2007- Tom Hawkins F/S (41)
2006- Scott Gumbleton (2), Mitch Thorpe (6), Jack Riewoldt (13)
Chris Dawes (28), Kurt Tippett (32), Jesse White (79)
2005- Josh Kennedy (4), John Anthony (37)
2004- Jarryd Roughead (2), Lance Franklin (5), Travis Cloke F/S (39)
2003- None of note
2002- None of note
2001- None of note
2000- Nick Riewoldt (1), Justin Kosi (2), Drew Petrie (23).

What a list of greatness and quite a few of our trade targets from
recent history, i think there is something in that for all of us.Some
set the competition on fire and then others should probably have
set themselves on fire, but such is life.;)
How do you rate players like Sam Reid?

Surely worth a mention
 

bobs head soup

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I have generally been a supporter of the 'draft for best available, trade for specific needs' motto. Last year, trading in a Hamling/Boyd then drafting talented small/mids a good example of the philosophy in work.

The idea falls down, though, when trades don't come through. This year, we clearly identified Rucks and KPDs as specific needs (Kruezer, Carlisle, Martin, Lobbe, Z.Clarke, May, Haynes all being targets), however for various reasons all failed to eventuate.

The question is, when the trades don't get done, how much do drafting priorities need to be modified?
 

Metal

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I have generally been a supporter of the 'draft for best available, trade for specific needs' motto. Last year, trading in a Hamling/Boyd then drafting talented small/mids a good example of the philosophy in work.

The idea falls down, though, when trades don't come through. This year, we clearly identified Rucks and KPDs as specific needs (Kruezer, Carlisle, Martin, Lobbe, Z.Clarke, May, Haynes all being targets), however for various reasons all failed to eventuate.

The question is, when the trades don't get done, how much do drafting priorities need to be modified?
So you are saying that if we do not get the targeted players to the club, it's okay to take 2nd best on unknowns in a draft.

Here's a revolutionary proposal for you. Let's spend 2016 developing our youngsters and modifying the system we have such that it does not become predictable.

Then let us target our key preferences at the end of 2016 for the following year. That way we will get quality and improve our list.

In the meantime we select best available at this year's draft. And if that means they all turn out to be smaller or mid range types, then so be it. The idea being that as we draft in players, we may be getting BETTER players than those already in the side....and that may mean your current favourite small or mid may have to go because they have been overtaken by a newbie.....which in turn means we may have a quality player available for trading for a KPP. Ruthless but that's one way of getting better players into our side to fill a specific need.

I have faith in the SYSTEM that Bevo will implement. Just look at how we went this year without Talia being a major factor or Roughhead being injured.

It's not ideal to be short of talls, but it isn't the end of the world. At least, not in the way Bevo coaches, who it has been said, develops his plan according to what he has at his disposal.
 

flipper83

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Now list the guys over 6'5" we've drafted in the last 10 years. I'd rather 20 Caleb Daniel's before I draft another James Mulligan or Lukas Markovic. I agree that list profiling is important but you don't draft a tall for the sake of it. Get the best talent to the club and use any means at your disposal, even if that is the draft, to smooth out the list. With more trading, free agency and the gulf between the VFL and the AFL smaller than it has ever been (although it is still a gulf), there are many ways to fix your list, but drafting a tall who is most likely shit, for the sake of it, is crazy list management.
Stop comparing good smalls to tall spuds. A better example would be Fletcher Roberts who went in the preseason draft.
Is no world beater but fills a role.
A team of Caleb Daniels would get slaughtered. You need to have players to fill the key position posts which it does seem we have neglected a little of late.

I don't think anyone is saying overlook a gun midfielder to take a speculative tall. It's more about not taking a player like Honeychurch who will provide depth and competition for spots but never be elite instead of someone like Roberts who could fill a key post.

Talls are harder to pick which is why you have to roll the dice more. That's why a lot of teams have a number of developing talls on their list. Many won't make it but those who do are extremely important.
 

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So you are saying that if we do not get the targeted players to the club, it's okay to take 2nd best on unknowns in a draft.

Here's a revolutionary proposal for you. Let's spend 2016 developing our youngsters and modifying the system we have such that it does not become predictable.

Then let us target our key preferences at the end of 2016 for the following year. That way we will get quality and improve our list.

In the meantime we select best available at this year's draft. And if that means they all turn out to be smaller or mid range types, then so be it. The idea being that as we draft in players, we may be getting BETTER players than those already in the side....and that may mean your current favourite small or mid may have to go because they have been overtaken by a newbie.....which in turn means we may have a quality player available for trading for a KPP. Ruthless but that's one way of getting better players into our side to fill a specific need.

I have faith in the SYSTEM that Bevo will implement. Just look at how we went this year without Talia being a major factor or Roughhead being injured.

It's not ideal to be short of talls, but it isn't the end of the world. At least, not in the way Bevo coaches, who it has been said, develops his plan according to what he has at his disposal.
I am not saying take 2nd best on an unknown in a draft (that's a weird slant to take), I'm pretty sure our List Managers are going to have a pretty good idea of the candidates they will take.

I am suggesting that if we have 2 similarly rated candidates (given our lack of success in obtaining talls at trade), our preference may be to go for the tall in the interests of long term list balance. My query is how heavy that weighting is.

The idea that you load up with a heap more undersized forward/mids, who can't get a regular game because they're 10th in line for limited spots on the field, then trade them (or whoever it is that can't get a game) for quality in a year of 2 just doesn't add up. It's really hard to trade non-best 22 smalls for quality talls. Loading up on a heap of similar types over successive years on a list can only lead to devaluing trade assets.
 

BRWB

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I am not saying take 2nd best on an unknown in a draft (that's a weird slant to take), I'm pretty sure our List Managers are going to have a pretty good idea of the candidates they will take.

I am suggesting that if we have 2 similarly rated candidates (given our lack of success in obtaining talls at trade), our preference may be to go for the tall in the interests of long term list balance. My query is how heavy that weighting is.

The idea that you load up with a heap more undersized forward/mids, who can't get a regular game because they're 10th in line for limited spots on the field, then trade them (or whoever it is that can't get a game) for quality in a year of 2 just doesn't add up. It's really hard to trade non-best 22 smalls for quality talls. Loading up on a heap of similar types over successive years on a list can only lead to devaluing trade assets.
Yep the uncontracted Hrovat looms as a prime eg at next years trade period. If he is opportunity starved next season we will likely lose him for bugger all even though he could well end up ok.

This potential problem will get worse if we keep recruiting tiny folk at the expense of list balance.

While at the same time we have too few (if any) quality talls which hurts performance and could force us to pay through the nose for a tall via trade or FA.
 
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I hope we are at least looking at Mason Shaw (delisted by PA).

Lots of talent, but injury hampered for his 3 years on their list.

198cm forward, kicked a bag of 6 last year in SANFL.

Would be worth considering, especially if he could potentially be turned into an effective KPD (as he knows the game and has great size)...
 

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go you pups

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I am not saying take 2nd best on an unknown in a draft (that's a weird slant to take), I'm pretty sure our List Managers are going to have a pretty good idea of the candidates they will take.

I am suggesting that if we have 2 similarly rated candidates (given our lack of success in obtaining talls at trade), our preference may be to go for the tall in the interests of long term list balance. My query is how heavy that weighting is.

The idea that you load up with a heap more undersized forward/mids, who can't get a regular game because they're 10th in line for limited spots on the field, then trade them (or whoever it is that can't get a game) for quality in a year of 2 just doesn't add up. It's really hard to trade non-best 22 smalls for quality talls. Loading up on a heap of similar types over successive years on a list can only lead to devaluing trade assets.
We got bugger all for Talia and Jones for etc when they left but we got something, got a bit more for Lake. When a player like Tutt wants out we get donuts, can see the same thing happening with a Hrovat or something in the future.
 

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Yep the uncontracted Hrovat looms as a prime eg at next years trade period. If he is opportunity starved next season we will likely lose him for bugger all even though he could well end up ok.

This potential problem will get worse if we keep recruiting tiny folk at the expense of list balance.

While at the same time we have too few (if any) quality talls which hurts performance and could force us to pay through the nose for a tall via trade or FA.
Come on BRWB it's not like the Bulldogs have gone out there to market to
buy a cow and come back with the magic beans.

Magic beans may be a metaphor for Tom Boyd, but sadly only time
will tell whether we have a champion footballer or a beanstalk.;)
 
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Metal

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Yep the uncontracted Hrovat looms as a prime eg at next years trade period. If he is opportunity starved next season we will likely lose him for bugger all even though he could well end up ok.

This potential problem will get worse if we keep recruiting tiny folk at the expense of list balance.

While at the same time we have too few (if any) quality talls which hurts performance and could force us to pay through the nose for a tall via trade or FA.
We are not going to recruit just tiny folk! Best available does not have to equal small.

It can be a taller mid in the shape of a Bonti or Stringer who we consider to have the potential to be a force in our system. Do we forgo such a player to select someone who we consider inferior but who is tall enough to be a KPP?
 
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An excerpt from Emma Quayle's The Draftees, highlighting how getting desperate and selecting for needs can go wrong:

The Blues had prioritised midfield runners after trading for Kristian Jaksch and Liam Jones, and their list was ordered accordingly, pushing such players as Paddy McCartin, Peter Wright and some other taller prospects down into the teens. The club would have chosen only Angus Brayshaw, Liam Duggan and Christian Petracca ahead of Boekhorst at pick 17, with Caleb Marchbank, Jayden Laverde, Jordan de Goey, and Dillon Viojo-Rainbow next on their list.

...

They wanted pace, and they needed it, Boekhorst had it and when recruiting manager Shane Rogers packaged up highlights of the eight best options and showed them to the club's coaches they all liked the same player he did, making him feel even more confident that Boekhorst would be the right choice.
Now I think Boekhorst can be an ok player but the ordering above is ridiculous. This is obviously paired with numerous other factors such as general recruiter ineptitude however it highlights why you can never get desperate in recruiting. I'm not implying that anybody is suggesting we get desperate, just that there are real dangers when you start manipulating your talent list to fill holes. I thought it good to actually add a real example rather than just go over the same arguments for another month.
 

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We are not going to recruit just tiny folk! Best available does not have to equal small.

It can be a taller mid in the shape of a Bonti or Stringer who we consider to have the potential to be a force in our system. Do we forgo such a player to select someone who we consider inferior but who is tall enough to be a KPP?
Agree Metal, but Hrovat into Honeychurch into Daniel does tend to
suggest a little obsession with the tiny folk.;)
 

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I have generally been a supporter of the 'draft for best available, trade for specific needs' motto. Last year, trading in a Hamling/Boyd then drafting talented small/mids a good example of the philosophy in work.

The idea falls down, though, when trades don't come through. This year, we clearly identified Rucks and KPDs as specific needs (Kruezer, Carlisle, Martin, Lobbe, Z.Clarke, May, Haynes all being targets), however for various reasons all failed to eventuate.

The question is, when the trades don't get done, how much do drafting priorities need to be modified?
Really good post mate.
 
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We'll never know for sure, but it was widely reported we were into drafting Peter Wright at 6 had we not traded in in the Griffen saga last year.

So we wont always go small with our early picks!!
 

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We need to draft in main and rookie many player over 196cm fail to do that would be stupid cos their many hidden in past I.e Dean Cox,Sandland,Crammer,Morris ,Jarman every year we need to turn over rookie player unlike what the club did in 2012-14 by keep all those players for that period.
 

Testekill

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Crameri & Morris are barely 190cm and it's pretty widely believed that West Coast essentially hid Cox by having him play regional football in Western Australia where there is much less eyes on them and none of the Jarmans were rookie picks as they are considered some of the most talented players in SANFL history.
 

Pugz89

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Beveridge is no doubt a different coach to Macca, not sure how much influence a coach has on who we pick up but i would imagine Bev will have told Dal the kinda players he wants, given we had no coach when the draft was on last year, this is the first time they will have teamed up. New slate, new game plan, new coach. Let's see what comes of it before we jump the gun, yeah?
 

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Now I think Boekhorst can be an ok player but the ordering above is ridiculous. This is obviously paired with numerous other factors such as general recruiter ineptitude however it highlights why you can never get desperate in recruiting. I'm not implying that anybody is suggesting we get desperate, just that there are real dangers when you start manipulating your talent list to fill holes. I thought it good to actually add a real example rather than just go over the same arguments for another month.

I think a fundamental part of this issue is a positive attitude towards drafting that focuses on perceived strengths of players, rather than an evidence based approach (which will recognise that the strike rate of selecting an effective player is very low).

Using the best available approach as a foundation (while still being strategic relating to list needs) is important primarily because the strike rate for afl players is so low.
 

stefoid

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For the Tall Vs Small protagonists, i did some research on KPF's
drafted from 2000 to 2014 back at the start of the year. I stuck
mainly to the players of note.

2014- Paddy McCartin (1), Peter Wright (8), Darcy Moore F/S (9)
Jayden Foster (63), Reece (the beast) McKenzie (77)
2013- Tom Boyd (1), Cameron McCarthy (14), Daniel McStay (25)
2012- Joe Daniher F/S (10), Spencer White (25), James
Stewart (27), Tim O'Brien (28), Mason Shaw (30), Michael
Close (32)
2011- Jonathon Patton (1), Adam Tomlinson (9)
2010- Sam Day (3), Thomas Lynch (11)
2009- John Butcher (8), Ben Griffiths (19), Sam Reid (38)
2008- Jack Watts (1), Tyrone Vickery (8), Liam Jones (32)
2007- Tom Hawkins F/S (41)
2006- Scott Gumbleton (2), Mitch Thorpe (6), Jack Riewoldt (13)
Chris Dawes (28), Kurt Tippett (32), Jesse White (79)
2005- Josh Kennedy (4), John Anthony (37)
2004- Jarryd Roughead (2), Lance Franklin (5), Travis Cloke F/S (39)
2003- None of note
2002- None of note
2001- None of note
2000- Nick Riewoldt (1), Justin Kosi (2), Drew Petrie (23).

What a list of greatness and quite a few of our trade targets from
recent history, i think there is something in that for all of us.Some
set the competition on fire and then others should probably have
set themselves on fire, but such is life.;)
D.Talia, Carlisile, Taylor, Hurley, Ryder, T.McDonald, M.Johnson, Frawley, S.Thompson, McKenzie, A.Carlile, Hansen, Lonergan, Gunston, T.Lynch, Westhoff, Darling, Walker, Cameron, Dixon, Schultz, Bruce, Tomlinson.

We need to get better at identifying key position players and drafting them.
 

Testekill

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D.Talia, Carlisile, Taylor, Hurley, Ryder, T.McDonald, M.Johnson, Frawley, S.Thompson, McKenzie, A.Carlile, Hansen, Lonergan, Gunston, T.Lynch, Westhoff, Darling, Walker, Cameron, Dixon, Schultz, Bruce, Tomlinson.

We need to get better at identifying key position players and drafting them.
How many of these players did we actually have a chance of selecting? I've bolded the ones that were avaliable that we could have taken. I'm not giving Thompson a note because we had a far superior full back on our list in Lake and I'm not giving McKenzie a nod when everyone passed on him multiple times which indicates that he isn't that good.
 

Yojimbo

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I posted KPF's earlier so i thought to add balance i may as well
post KPD's to from 2000 to 2014 along with their pick numbers.

2014- Caleb Marchbank (6), Jake Lever (14), Sam Durdin (16),
Hugh Goddard (21), Daniel Nielson (25), Oscar McDonald (53),
Zaine Cordy F/S (62), Logan Austin (69)
2013- Alex Pearce (37), Cameron Giles (39), Jonathon Marsh (77)
2012- Kristian Jaksch (12), Aidan Corr (14), Marco Paperone (23),
Tom Clurey (29), Tanner Smith (36), Sam Siggins (62)
2011- Henry Schade (24),Todd Elton (26), Joel Hamling (32),
Michael Talia (39), James Sellar (54)
2010- Matthew Watson (18), Tom McDonald (53), Matthew Spangher (73)
2009- Daniel Talia (13), Jake Carlisle (24), Lukas Markovic (63)
2008- Michael Hurley (5), Phil Davis (10), Ryan Schoenmakers (16),
Jackson Trengove (22)
2007- Lachlan Henderson (8), Robbie Tarrant (15), Harry Taylor (17),
Alex Rance (18), Tayte Pears (23), Scott Thompson (37),
Cale Hooker (54)
2006- Lachlan Hansen (3), Ben Reid (8), Nathan Brown (10),
James Frawley (12), Mitch Brown (16), Eric McKenzie (29),
Mark Austin (35), Justin Westhoff (71), James Sellar the 1st (14)
2005- Matthew Spangher the 1st (34), Alipate Carlile (44)
2004- Tom Williams (6), Lynden Dunn (15)
2003- Troy Chaplin (15), Zac Dawson (41), Sam Fisher (55)
2002- Stephen Gilham (16), Jared Rivers (26), Daniel Merrett (30),
Cameron Wight (49)
2001- Graham Polak (4), Matthew Maguire (21), Brian Lake (71)
2000- Jason Cloke F/S (19), Ted Richards (27)

Yes pups i left off Lewis Roberts-Thomson high pick hate the hyphen.
Notice the lack of really high picks compared with the KPF's, but
such is the lot of defenders. I left a few guys off who were part of
the original empire teams and a few spuds.
 
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