Strategy Trade and List management Thread Part 2 (opposition supporters - READ posting rules before posting)

[Mattdougie]

Whipping boy = shite footballer a small amount pray he does well coz they backed him in

 

[Fossie 32]

'Does'

 

[threenewpadlocks]

Apart from James Podsiadly, has a mature KPF ever been successful?

Not talking delisted/virtually delisted players like your Jay Schultz type. Actual state leaguers.

 

[webbo]

Apart from James Podsiadly, has a mature KPF ever been successful?

Not talking delisted/virtually delisted players like your Jay Schultz type. Actual state leaguers.

Redpath?

 

[Sentinel]

Apart from James Podsiadly, has a mature KPF ever been successful?

Not talking delisted/virtually delisted players like your Jay Schultz type. Actual state leaguers.

Ben Brown comes to mind.

They're rare though.

 

[Yojimbo]

Sounds like a potentially good prospect. Hopefully the team have had a chat to him to see where his heads at, could be another Gowers for us.
Is your mature TOTY posted anywhere?

Pays to remember that Hammelmann plays for the Redland Bombers who won the spoon this year so the supply has to be
questioned, my mature team of the year is posted in my book some of the names will not mean much so I don't post on
here, but from the backline B- Tom Highmore (Canberra) Sam Collins (Werribee) Marty Hore (Coll VFL) just to give you
a small taste. The full forward line is good too F- Shane McAdam (SANFL) Matt Hammelmann (Redland) and my favourite
Matthew Parker (WAFL). The Followers were Zac Clarke (WAFL) Chris Burgess (SANFL) and Michael Gibbons (Willy VFL)
needless to say from that brief snippet it is an excellent best 22.

 

[murphy2bedabest]

Think pick 7 will be very much still in play come draft night, both SA clubs will be trying their best to trade up to either pick 2 or 3 even both.

 

[VitalDread]

When was the last time we delisted 10 players?
Feels like ages

 

[Fossie 32]

Pays to remember that Hammelmann plays for the Redland Bombers who won the spoon this year so the supply has to be
questioned, my mature team of the year is posted in my book some of the names will not mean much so I don't post on
here, but from the backline B- Tom Highmore (Canberra) Sam Collins (Werribee) Marty Hore (Coll VFL) just to give you
a small taste. The full forward line is good too F- Shane McAdam (SANFL) Matt Hammelmann (Redland) and my favourite
Matthew Parker (WAFL). The Followers were Zac Clarke (WAFL) Chris Burgess (SANFL) and Michael Gibbons (Willy VFL)
needless to say from that brief snippet it is an excellent best 22.

Your book?

 

[Mofra]

Apart from James Podsiadly, has a mature KPF ever been successful?

Not talking delisted/virtually delisted players like your Jay Schultz type. Actual state leaguers.

Simon Beasley

 

[Yojimbo]

When was the last time we delisted 10 players?
Feels like ages

2018- 10 so far.
2017- 9
2016- 7
2015- 8
2104- 13
2013- 5
2012- 11

Not that long ago.

 

[Yojimbo]

Your book?

I am a bit of an anal statistics quasi guru I do those 128 page binder books and keep them in folders. (No life)

 

[murphy2bedabest]

2018- 10 so far.
2017- 9
2016- 7
2015- 8
2104- 13
2013- 5
2012- 11

Not that long ago.

2018-2104 is an extremely long time

 

[Mofra]

We've got a potential superstar on our book in a couple of years. This kid could be anything.

https://www.standard.net.au/story/5723317/afl-academy-picks-hampden-league-duo/

Jamarra Ugle-Hagan is one of our NGA kids, grown from 193 to 195cm over the year.

 

[TBOW]

With the added certainty around our list following these delistings, our current status ahead of the draft is:

33 players on the senior list (7 spots available)
3 players on the rookie list (2 spots available)

Draft Picks: 7, 27, 32, 45, 63, 75 & 82

Those with a bit of knowledge on the draft - would the following be likely/optimal?

7 (Smith/King/Rozee)
27 (West - likely used to match a bid around pick 15-21)
32 (Khamis - likely pushed back in draft as we'll probably need more points than just pick 27 to get West)
45 (Will Hayes)
63 (Ben Cavarra)
75 (Gowers upgrade)
82 (Lynch upgrade)

I'm no expert on the draftees but following the draft closely for a few years one thing that seems consistent is that under the new bidding system Academy and father son players always get nominated later in the draft than they are rated pre-draft.

Based on this and if our draft order doesn't change I would expect a bid for Khamis to come later than 32, allowing us to pick another player in the second round. He may even be bid on after our 3rd rounder.

If I remember correctly Zaine was listed in Cal Twoomeys top 25 in his draft year and we picked him up in the 60's. Off the top of my head Stretch, Naish, Rice, Keayes and several others were all expected to go much higher than their final draft positions also.

 

[LittleG]

We've got a potential superstar on our book in a couple of years. This kid could be anything.

https://www.standard.net.au/story/5723317/afl-academy-picks-hampden-league-duo/

Jamarra Ugle-Hagan is one of our NGA kids, grown from 193 to 195cm over the year.

Has good hands and leap too.

Possible to end up as a true 1KPF at AFL but likely end up being 2kpf (more mobile, secondary option). Hope we help him develop and commit to taking him.

 

[F3000]

Apart from James Podsiadly, has a mature KPF ever been successful?

Michael Barlow.

 

[VitalDread]

We've got a potential superstar on our book in a couple of years. This kid could be anything.

https://www.standard.net.au/story/5723317/afl-academy-picks-hampden-league-duo/

Jamarra Ugle-Hagan is one of our NGA kids, grown from 193 to 195cm over the year.

played 3 games for Rebels this year at 15 years old

 

[dogwatch]

I am a bit of an anal statistics quasi guru I do those 128 page binder books and keep them in folders. (No life)

Impressive.
I don't remember Anal Statistics 101 being offered as a discipline ... but then I don't remember much of anything about my undergrad years. I did learn that shit happens but I didn't realise that people actually kept stats on it.

Or is it just a reference to people telling you where to shove your stats? BF can be so cruel.

 

[ossie_21]

Michael Barlow.

Not a KPF

 

[Mofra]

Has good hands and leap too.

Possible to end up as a true 1KPF at AFL but likely end up being 2kpf (more mobile, secondary option). Hope we help him develop and commit to taking him.

The 2kpf type is becoming more important. Mobile talls are the fashion, big hulking brute KPFs are on the way out. Hawkins is effective but is anyone else? Patton's cooked, Boyd is nowhere near elite, and Tom Lynch/Jeremy Cameron/Joe Daniher are beanpoles and mobile.
Josh Kennedy is probably a mix of the two.

 

[threenewpadlocks]

Ben Brown comes to mind.

They're rare though.

Point taken, although he's not really what I think of when I ask the question because he was one who had only really played the one year of VFL who had slipped through the normal talent pathways as a junior being from Tassie. Moreso that there's hardly anyone available from the state leagues across multiple years and who is a KPF who goes on to have a successful career. Redpath is as good as you're going to get, and in the end, despite all those years on the list he only played 36 games.

I just feel seeing that KPF's tend to go earlier in the draft and have a higher failure rate early in the draft, hardly every slip through the cracks as they do, say, a medium defender like Dale Morris or Dane Rampe, where it's harder to judge things like "ability to read the play behind the ball" as an u/18 player compared to judge something as easy as "does this bloke take strong marks and kick straight" as it is for a KPF

 

[Yojimbo]

Or is it just a reference to people telling you where to shove your stats? BF can be so cruel.

I just thought they were statistics until I came to BF, I added the anal after 2012. I never knew stats could be so annoying.

 

[Mofra]

Ben Brown comes to mind.

They're rare though.

Good get.

Pods wasn't strictly 'just' a state leaguer either. He spent time with both the Swans and Essendon as a rookie before going back to the VFL.

 

[Mofra]

I just feel seeing that KPF's tend to go earlier in the draft and have a higher failure rate early in the draft, hardly every slip through the cracks as they do, say, a medium defender like Dale Morris or Dane Rampe, where it's harder to judge things like "ability to read the play behind the ball" as an u/18 player compared to judge something as easy as "does this bloke take strong marks and kick straight" as it is for a KPF

The last genuinely dominant KPF to be taken 'late' would be Fev at 31 or 32, although Tom McDonald has broken the mould as a pick in the 50s who is now an excellent tall forward (after many years as a backman).

I guess that's the issue taking tall forwards late - the only ones who make it might be tall backmen for the first half of their career. Fraser Gehrig comes to mind too, FB at WCE then a gun KPF at St Kilda.