Strategy Trade and List management Thread Part 2 (opposition supporters - READ posting rules before posting)

[Doggies_13]

Lethlean never said 32 wouldn’t be accepted he said it didn’t feel quite right at the moment but time will tell and that these deals normally involve more picks or pick swaps.

 

[Doggy]

Well that is some serious low balling. Not what I'd call fair trades at all.

Doubt either clubs agree there. Time will tell.

Low balling is the only way the saints get all their targets

 

[compact72]

Bit disappointing

Not really. We have the right players already, just filling in some holes

No biggy imo

 

[Dry Rot]

SP won't be giving up pick 13 under any circumstances, not even worth discussing, it's not happening.
Saints didn't offer Bruce a contract extension so have made it clear they don't want him. They have Howard which will soften the blow of losing Bruce. Pick 32 is all they will get - they will take it.
We'll get Keath for a later pick.
That's it

OK, thanks for the intel.

So who will likely be available at pick #13 in the draft that we really want?

 

[RedWhite&Blue]

We tried for another two KPD but didn’t get a “get me here”.
Recruitment team like the pick 13, as there will be a good non-midfielder available.
Trying to turn a third rounder into next years picks.
Is that pretty spot on?

Not sure about those specifics but all I know is that we will only consider trading our first round picks in any year for something incredible.
SP's drafting model aims to always bring in at least one top young talent every year.

Last year when we almost got Wingard we were never going to give up pick 7.
Looking at that now who would you rather out of Wingard or Smith.
Smith every day of the week for mine.

We've nailed every first round pick since the flag in 2016.
2016 - English
2017 - Naughton
2018 - Smith

 

[RedWhite&Blue]

OK, thanks for the intel.

So who will likely be available at pick #13 in the draft that we really want?

No idea sorry

 

[Doggies_13]

Billings - Pick 3
Max King - Pick 4
Hunter Clark - Pick 7
Nick Coffield - Pick 8
McCartin - Pick 1

They have hit the top end of the draft, no less than the Bulldogs flag team have. It’s just that their players are yet to turn out as good, and probably won’t.

Massive question marks on McCartin ever playing a meaningful role unfortunately.
I like hunter Clark and billing’s took big steps this year, also Gresham is another that could be considered.
King has massive wraps on him.
Coffield is unknown so far.

How many of them are on the following levels or showing signs of being on the following levels.

Hawks - franklin Roughead Mitchell hodge Lewis Rioli
Geelong - Bartel Ablett Corey Scarlett ling Hawkins Enright

Dogs likely have - Bont macrae Dunkley English naughton Smith? Jj? (Would also have lipinski Richards and McLean in the next level down)

Saints - king Gresham billings Clark?

 

[Smiley Boy]

SP won't be giving up pick 13 under any circumstances, not even worth discussing, it's not happening.
Saints didn't offer Bruce a contract extension so have made it clear they don't want him. They have Howard which will soften the blow of losing Bruce. Pick 32 is all they will get - they will take it.
We'll get Keath for a later pick.
That's it

Loving the intel

 

[TiAn_]

There is more Saints talk on here than the Saints board. I like it.

Everyone has a good look when they see a car crash.

 

[Triple Baileys]

Might as well be .. they're making all the plays ...

I agree. Situation, folks, is that we are engaged with them over a trade deal, that's why we're talking the Saints. In addition, they are bemusing everyone who follows AFL with having virtually no cards in the hand this year but are talking multiple recruitments by offloading players they don't in reality rate for overs while preserving next years picks for a dream coup.

Maybe they will use one of next years earlier picks for this year. Then next year they use one of the following year's early draft picks for their dream coup.

Maybe...all interesting but what I want to see is that we walk away from the Bruce deal if we have to pay overs in one form or another. Likewise, Keath.

Call the other clubs' bluff. Be prepared to say "see you later, no thanks."

 

[bresker]

I think we should stick with lucky pick 13:

National Draft Pick #13 - Draftguru

www.draftguru.com.au

Bob Murphy, Shane Crawford, Paddy Cripps, Shannon Hurn, Nick Del Santo etc...

Few duds in there but heaps of goods & greats.

 

[Triple Baileys]

There is more Saints talk on here than the Saints board. I like it.

Anyway, has anyone got any Intel on what the Dogs are planning to offer for Bruce yet?

Haven't heard anything for a while.

How about we compare notes after the trade period.

At the moment we have said we aren't trading 13 and only have pick 32 and 44, 50 and 52.

Maybe Bruce and Steven will be running around again for you next year.

 

[Yojimbo]

Examples of why posturing over draft picks is an exercise in futility:

2013:
#3 - Billings, #26 - Merrett
#5 - Kolodjashnij, #56 - Sicily

2014:
#4 - Pickett, #46 - Daniel
#6 - Marchbank, #56 - Dougal Howard

2015:
#3 - Mills, #67 - Broad
#5 - Parish, #25 - Dunkley

2016:
#1 - McGrath, #40 -Tom Stewart
#5 - Setterfield, #28 - Lipinski, #53 - Jack Graham

2017:
#3 - Dow, #4 - LDU, #45 - Worpel

Moral of the story, the draft is an absolute crapshoot. There are no guarantees, regardless of what lottery numbers you hold. If only Clubs put as much effort into evaluating young talent as they did into "winning" trades.

Another day goes by and one lousy deal gets done. The Bruce deal continues to be delayed because pick 32 is not ok but pick 25 is...FMD!

In 2015 we had pick 26 and pick 35. 26 went on Kieran Collins and 35 went on Marcus Adams. 4 years later and pick 26 is playing local footy whilst pick 35 was playing meaningful games in September.

I'll say it again, there are no guarantees when it comes to the draft! Just back your bloody recruiters in and start getting some ******* deals done!

Love it Wally, these are some of my favourites. (Hindsight Heroes)

2012: #5 Jake Stringer, #18 Brodie Grundy.
2011: #39 Michael Talia, #58 Lachie Neale.
2009: #15 Christian Howard, #20 Nat Fyfe, #28 Mitch Duncan, #29 Jack Gunston.
2007: #5 Jarrad Grant, #10 Patrick Dangerfield, #12 Cyril Rioli.
2006: #11 Andrejs Everitt, #13 Jack Riewoldt.
2006: #45 Brennan Stack, #55 Robbie Gray.
2006: #66 Malcolm Lynch, #71 Justin Westhoff.
2004: #6 Tom Williams, #7 Jordan Lewis.
2002: #4 Tim Walsh, #5 Jarrad McVeigh.
2001: #10 Sam Power, #13 Nick Dal Santo, #17 James Kelly, #24 Steve Johnson.

I had this dream about a full to the brim trophy cabinet and then it was gone, like magic.

 

[Bemoreboyddog]

I think we should stick with lucky pick 13:

National Draft Pick #13 - Draftguru

www.draftguru.com.au

Bob Murphy, Shane Crawford, Paddy Cripps, Shannon Hurn, Nick Del Santo etc...

Few duds in there but heaps of goods & greats.

What if 13 turns into 15? Christian Howard....shudders...

 

[Pugz89]

SP won't be giving up pick 13 under any circumstances, not even worth discussing, it's not happening.
Saints didn't offer Bruce a contract extension so have made it clear they don't want him. They have Howard which will soften the blow of losing Bruce. Pick 32 is all they will get - they will take it.
We'll get Keath for a later pick.
That's it

Our pick 13 being off the table completely is interesting. Wonder if there's a particular player they're keeping it for on draft night.

 

[Northernsoul74]

Our pick 13 being off the table completely is interesting. Wonder if there's a particular player they're keeping it for on draft night.

I genuinely think it’s because you can never have enough top end talent coming into your club. Draft best available in round 1. If you can’t decide than take whomever fits your list. We’ll have a couple we like but a slider might change things.

 

[Boyd oh Boyd]

Happy with the stance we're taking. 28 year olds aren't going to give us the years of service a first round pick could. People love to harp on about draft busts but for every trade that worked out there's half a dozen that struggled to every find their best form again, except these guys usually aren't on draftee wages.

 

[ErnieSigley]

No, I think Lethlean made it pretty clear we wouldn't accept 32. Maybe with another decent pick.

You can keep him then just like you will with Stevens

 

[dogwatch]

Examples of why posturing over draft picks is an exercise in futility:

2013:
#3 - Billings, #26 - Merrett
#5 - Kolodjashnij, #56 - Sicily

2014:
#4 - Pickett, #46 - Daniel
#6 - Marchbank, #56 - Dougal Howard

2015:
#3 - Mills, #67 - Broad
#5 - Parish, #25 - Dunkley

2016:
#1 - McGrath, #40 -Tom Stewart
#5 - Setterfield, #28 - Lipinski, #53 - Jack Graham

2017:
#3 - Dow, #4 - LDU, #45 - Worpel

Moral of the story, the draft is an absolute crapshoot. There are no guarantees, regardless of what lottery numbers you hold. If only Clubs put as much effort into evaluating young talent as they did into "winning" trades.

Another day goes by and one lousy deal gets done. The Bruce deal continues to be delayed because pick 32 is not ok but pick 25 is...FMD!

In 2015 we had pick 26 and pick 35. 26 went on Kieran Collins and 35 went on Marcus Adams. 4 years later and pick 26 is playing local footy whilst pick 35 was playing meaningful games in September.

I'll say it again, there are no guarantees when it comes to the draft! Just back your bloody recruiters in and start getting some ******* deals done!

I agree with the general notion that in any given draft pick#50 can turn out to be a better version of the same type of player that pick#5 is. You've illustrated that well and it's something I like to ponder over too. I also agree that we need to back our recruiters and not anguish too much over a few spots up or down in the second or third round of the draft if it means we secure our trade targets, Bruce and Keath.

However you have greatly over-simplified it. The long term trend is clearly that picks 1-10 > picks 11-20 > picks 21-30 > picks 31-40 and so on up to 50 or thereabouts, even if in any given year you can pluck out some stunning exceptions. This is of course why list managers are always angling for the best pick they can get. If it wasn't so, they wouldn't care.

Just by way of example here is the difference between pick #3 and #26 for the last ten drafts:

�

Year	Pick 3	Pick 26
2009	Dustin Martin	Travis Colyer
2010	Sam Day	Jack Darling (PS)
2011	Dom Tyson	Todd Elton
2012	Lachie Plowman	Jack Viney (FS)
2013	Jack Billings	Zach Merrett
2014	Angus Brayshaw	Toby McLean
2015	Callum Mills	Kieran Colins
2016	Hugh McCluggage	Brandan Parfitt
2017	Paddy Dow	Liam Ryan
2018	Izak Rankine	Rhylee West (FS)

Some good players in both columns as you'd expect because they are all first or second round picks but give me the left hand column any day. Also it's compromised a bit because of the two FS picks and a PS pick, especially as Viney was regarded as a top 10 pick if he hadn't been a FS (and if not for some suspected jiggery pokery by the Demons).


Here's another decade using your next example:
�

Year	Pick 5	Pick 56
2009	Ben Cunnington	Josh Cowan
2010	Jared Polec	Josh Mellington
2011	Matt Buntine	Tom Downie
2012	Jake Stringer	Daniel Currie
2013	Kade Kolodjashnij	James Sicily
2014	Jordan de Goey	Dougal Howard (!)
2015	Darcy Parish	Jordan Dawson
2016	Will Setterfield (GA)	Ed Phillips
2017	Adam Cerra	Zac Langdon
2018	Connor Rozee	Marty Hore

James Sicily notwithstanding it's clearly a no-contest which column you'd take if given the choice.


My point is this (and I'm sure you know where I'm heading):
Clubs DO put an awful lot of effort into evaluating young talent. The problem is it's nothing like an exact science. Recruiters rely on extensive research, tips, local knowledge, family interviews, junior coach interviews and in many cases have followed youngsters throughout their teenage years before the draft. Without doubt some will be better judges than others. Sometimes there are other factors at play too - e.g. pressure from the coach, expectation to take a FS, positional need vs best-available, and so on. However all recruiters need a fair slice of luck as well. Despite combines, U18 carnivals and ever-expanding networks of spotters some players just don't measure up to expectations and some develop unexpectedly into very good players a year or two after they've been drafted. Others have their careers cruelled by injury or illness.

The one constant in all this is that on average (say over 10 years) picks 1-10 do decidedly better than picks 11-20 and they in turn do better than picks 21-30 ... and so on. Another way to put it is that in any given draft year you'll end up with about 5-6 guns (elite players) from the top 10, about 3-4 guns from picks 11-20 and maybe only 1-2 from picks 21-30.

So rather than cherry-picking the exceptions - there are always quite a few to be found - I think a more interesting area of discussion would be to look at which recruiters or clubs consistently beat the odds, i.e. their selections generally perform better than the long term average for that number draft pick. It's very hard to measure of course, but we used to feel Simon Dalrymple did well in that regard. It's too early to assess Power/Austin but they haven't done too badly on the small sample so far.

When I know my club has a gun recruiter I'm happy to let him work his magic and not worry too much if we get shuffled down the draft a bit. However if I don't know how good he is (or if I know he's crap) then I'll be very keen to get the highest picks possible, even if it means quibbling over a difference of only 5-10 spots in the middle of the draft order. That's when the long term percentages might make a real difference to how well we do from the draft.

Come at me, Wal!

 

[bobs head soup]

Happy with the stance we're taking. 28 year olds aren't going to give us the years of service a first round pick could. People love to harp on about draft busts but for every trade that worked out there's half a dozen that struggled to every find their best form again, except these guys usually aren't on draftee wages.

Of late we seem to be finding that happy medium of finding value trade acquisitions whilst maintaining quality picks. It's a fine balance, but the last few years have been good and I like the way this year is shaping.

 

[Northernsoul74]

Happy with the stance we're taking. 28 year olds aren't going to give us the years of service a first round pick could. People love to harp on about draft busts but for every trade that worked out there's half a dozen that struggled to every find their best form again, except these guys usually aren't on draftee wages.

First round draftees are more of a certainty now than they were 5-10 years ago as well. Talent identification is better and kids are better prepared so its less of a lottery. I know lots of people say draft picks are overrated but I feel strongly that teams shouldn’t ignore the draft, especially the top end. Even more so for a smaller club like ours where top end mature talent don’t often nominate us for a trade.

 

[fronkalicious]

Happy with the stance we're taking. 28 year olds aren't going to give us the years of service a first round pick could. People love to harp on about draft busts but for every trade that worked out there's half a dozen that struggled to every find their best form again, except these guys usually aren't on draftee wages.

It’s also not as if we’re targeting any genuine elite players. Generally speaking I think draft picks are overvalued, but Bruce and Keath are hardly Tim Kelly, Adam treloar, Dylan shiel or Chad wingard.

 

[footyfan000001]

Saints fans - “bulldogs fans are idiots for believing the media”

.... reads a Facebook rumour about Melbourne chasing Bruce.

“Melbourne are into Bruce now- pay up dogs”.

 

[CDBulldog]

Not sure about those specifics but all I know is that we will only consider trading our first round picks in any year for something incredible.
SP's drafting model aims to always bring in at least one top young talent every year.

Last year when we almost got Wingard we were never going to give up pick 7.
Looking at that now who would you rather out of Wingard or Smith.
Smith every day of the week for mine.

We've nailed every first round pick since the flag in 2016.
2016 - English
2017 - Naughton
2018 - Smith

That’s more than nailed - nailed isn’t even close. That’s hung, dried and quartered. murdered!!!!! Let our snipers take aim at the draft with our first...

 

[dergert]

I cannot see how we go into next year without trading in a small and speedy forward. Our ground ball spillages will be at an all time high.
At times this year we played Libba up forward and he looked so out of place.

We can draft a few but we need immediate impact imo.