Strategy Trade and List management Thread Part 2 (opposition supporters - READ posting rules before posting)

[Snarls Barkley]

Examples of why posturing over draft picks is an exercise in futility:

2013:
#3 - Billings, #26 - Merrett
#5 - Kolodjashnij, #56 - Sicily

2014:
#4 - Pickett, #46 - Daniel
#6 - Marchbank, #56 - Dougal Howard

2015:
#3 - Mills, #67 - Broad
#5 - Parish, #25 - Dunkley

2016:
#1 - McGrath, #40 -Tom Stewart
#5 - Setterfield, #28 - Lipinski, #53 - Jack Graham

2017:
#3 - Dow, #4 - LDU, #45 - Worpel

Moral of the story, the draft is an absolute crapshoot. There are no guarantees, regardless of what lottery numbers you hold. If only Clubs put as much effort into evaluating young talent as they did into "winning" trades.

Another day goes by and one lousy deal gets done. The Bruce deal continues to be delayed because pick 32 is not ok but pick 25 is...FMD!

In 2015 we had pick 26 and pick 35. 26 went on Kieran Collins and 35 went on Marcus Adams. 4 years later and pick 26 is playing local footy whilst pick 35 was playing meaningful games in September.

I'll say it again, there are no guarantees when it comes to the draft! Just back your bloody recruiters in and start getting some ******* deals done!

It’s all a lottery, plenty of examples of lower picks that end up being better players than those selected early in the draft. But over a long period it’s shown that it’s the higher picks that are a better chance of having good careers.



Someone did a fair bit of research last year.

Getting Bruce and Keath are probably the highest priority at the moment and if we have to give up pick 13 it’s not the end of the world. Think we’ve got enough assets with the second round pick and three third round picks to get a package done without using pick 13 in the deal. Not always the case but pick 13 is more likely to be a good player than pick 32.

 

[Snarls Barkley]

Is blake acres any good?

Sort of. Really good size, really athletic, has some really good moments. Had a good 2017 and it looked like he was going to make the jump (bit like Elliot Yeo did) but it didn’t happen in 2018 or 2019. Had injuries in 2018. He’s 24 now so maybe he never takes the next level in his game, has all the physical attributes though.

Seems to be rumours every year that he is going back to WA.

 

[ManOfClay]

Acres is ordinary. St kilda fans build him up but like most of their players he’s nowhere near as good as they say

 

[Dogs Rule]

I cannot see how we go into next year without trading in a small and speedy forward. Our ground ball spillages will be at an all time high.
At times this year we played Libba up forward and he looked so out of place.

We can draft a few but we need immediate impact imo.

Who would you suggest? I hear there’s a Saints bloke who used to play at Footscray...

 

[dergert]

Brett ratten is already trying to save his job with these new recruits

 

[footyfan000001]

Melbourne have pick 3, 22 (Langdon) and 42. They aren’t joining the race for Bruce.

 

[Snarls Barkley]

Does Howard play back for them? Or forward?

Back surely. Seems like they want to play two rucks (Ryder and Marshall) and two key forwards (Membrey and Max King). Howard apparently wants to leave because Port are making him play forward so guessing he’ll replace Brown down back and partner with Carlisle.

Don’t mind what the Saints are doing, think it’s worth the risk. Been in nowhere land for a while. Think they’ve had a decent-ish squad for a while, they’ve got a lot of B-grade talent but they just don’t have any A-grade talent and A-grade talent wins games. All the players they’re linked too are quite decent (Hill’s easily the best) but they sort of need Billings, Gresham, Acres and some of their current players to make the leap to AA40 quality to get out of the 7-10 win bracket. They’ve essentially been a poor mans North the last few years.

 

[dergert]

Who would you suggest? I hear there’s a Saints bloke who used to play at Footscray...

Obviously im not privvy to the inside of walls of clubs so we may have had a big swing at few that just havent come off (jack martin).

I guess i was half expecting us to be nominated by a player in that position as we are young and on the rise.

Tbh i just dont see it with Ben Long. I am sure he is a lovely person and i hope he proves me wrong. I hope we look at Anthony Scott from our vfl side.

 

[dergert]

No idea sorry

Do you know if there is any truth to the rumours that clubs have shown interest in Billy Gowers?

 

[_M_16_]

Melbourne have pick 3, 22 (Langdon) and 42. They aren’t joining the race for Bruce.

Likely not. But many on here seem to forget that future picks can be used. No doubts Saints will be desperate for more picks this year to fill in that massive hole they have. But if Demons struggle again, a 2020 second round pick would probably fall around the range where the Saints are hoping to let him go for.

Demons may not have every pick this year. But they do have some next year to play with as well.

 

[CaptainMurphy]

Not sure about those specifics but all I know is that we will only consider trading our first round picks in any year for something incredible.
SP's drafting model aims to always bring in at least one top young talent every year.

Last year when we almost got Wingard we were never going to give up pick 7.
Looking at that now who would you rather out of Wingard or Smith.
Smith every day of the week for mine.

We've nailed every first round pick since the flag in 2016.
2016 - English
2017 - Naughton
2018 - Smith

I really like this. As long as they nail it of course. Previous years was a different drafting team so we can't rely on history.

 

[Snarls Barkley]

I cannot see how we go into next year without trading in a small and speedy forward. Our ground ball spillages will be at an all time high.
At times this year we played Libba up forward and he looked so out of place.

We can draft a few but we need immediate impact imo.

Is our new head recruiter the guy from Richmond? Maybe the plan is to get our Rioli/Castagna/Bolton/Butler through the draft.

 

[RedWhite&Blue]

Do you know if there is any truth to the rumours that clubs have shown interest in Billy Gowers?

Haven't heard anything about that.
Next year we will lose a few if they're not getting a game...

 

[TiAn_]

Trying to do a best 22 with Bruce and Keath is a tough exercise.

Our 23-30 players on our list is a seriously strong group. Quite a few that would walk into the best 22 at many other clubs.

 

[CaptainMurphy]

Our pick 13 being off the table completely is interesting. Wonder if there's a particular player they're keeping it for on draft night.

My bet (and hope) is Dylan Williams

 

[CaptainMurphy]

I agree with the general notion that in any given draft pick#50 can turn out to be a better version of the same type of player that pick#5 is. You've illustrated that well and it's something I like to ponder over too. I also agree that we need to back our recruiters and not anguish too much over a few spots up or down in the second or third round of the draft if it means we secure our trade targets, Bruce and Keath.

However you have greatly over-simplified it. The long term trend is clearly that picks 1-10 > picks 11-20 > picks 21-30 > picks 31-40 and so on up to 50 or thereabouts, even if in any given year you can pluck out some stunning exceptions. This is of course why list managers are always angling for the best pick they can get. If it wasn't so, they wouldn't care.

Just by way of example here is the difference between pick #3 and #26 for the last ten drafts:

�

Year	Pick 3	Pick 26
2009	Dustin Martin	Travis Colyer
2010	Sam Day	Jack Darling (PS)
2011	Dom Tyson	Todd Elton
2012	Lachie Plowman	Jack Viney (FS)
2013	Jack Billings	Zach Merrett
2014	Angus Brayshaw	Toby McLean
2015	Callum Mills	Kieran Colins
2016	Hugh McCluggage	Brandan Parfitt
2017	Paddy Dow	Liam Ryan
2018	Izak Rankine	Rhylee West (FS)

Some good players in both columns as you'd expect because they are all first or second round picks but give me the left hand column any day. Also it's compromised a bit because of the two FS picks and a PS pick, especially as Viney was regarded as a top 10 pick if he hadn't been a FS (and if not for some suspected jiggery pokery by the Demons).



Here's another decade using your next example:
�

Year	Pick 5	Pick 56
2009	Ben Cunnington	Josh Cowan
2010	Jared Polec	Josh Mellington
2011	Matt Buntine	Tom Downie
2012	Jake Stringer	Daniel Currie
2013	Kade Kolodjashnij	James Sicily
2014	Jordan de Goey	Dougal Howard (!)
2015	Darcy Parish	Jordan Dawson
2016	Will Setterfield (GA)	Ed Phillips
2017	Adam Cerra	Zac Langdon
2018	Connor Rozee	Marty Hore

James Sicily notwithstanding it's clearly a no-contest which column you'd take if given the choice.



My point is this (and I'm sure you know where I'm heading):
Clubs DO put an awful lot of effort into evaluating young talent. The problem is it's nothing like an exact science. Recruiters rely on extensive research, tips, local knowledge, family interviews, junior coach interviews and in many cases have followed youngsters throughout their teenage years before the draft. Without doubt some will be better judges than others. Sometimes there are other factors at play too - e.g. pressure from the coach, expectation to take a FS, positional need vs best-available, and so on. However all recruiters need a fair slice of luck as well. Despite combines, U18 carnivals and ever-expanding networks of spotters some players just don't measure up to expectations and some develop unexpectedly into very good players a year or two after they've been drafted. Others have their careers cruelled by injury or illness.

The one constant in all this is that on average (say over 10 years) picks 1-10 do decidedly better than picks 11-20 and they in turn do better than picks 21-30 ... and so on. Another way to put it is that in any given draft year you'll end up with about 5-6 guns (elite players) from the top 10, about 3-4 guns from picks 11-20 and maybe only 1-2 from picks 21-30.

So rather than cherry-picking the exceptions - there are always quite a few to be found - I think a more interesting area of discussion would be to look at which recruiters or clubs consistently beat the odds, i.e. their selections generally perform better than the long term average for that number draft pick. It's very hard to measure of course, but we used to feel Simon Dalrymple did well in that regard. It's too early to assess Power/Austin but they haven't done too badly on the small sample so far.

When I know my club has a gun recruiter I'm happy to let him work his magic and not worry too much if we get shuffled down the draft a bit. However if I don't know how good he is (or if I know he's crap) then I'll be very keen to get the highest picks possible, even if it means quibbling over a difference of only 5-10 spots in the middle of the draft order. That's when the long term percentages might make a real difference to how well we do from the draft.

Come at me, Wal!

Excellent post. Very well said.

 

[Libba39]

According to saints supporters Melbourne is into Bruce now

I reckon a lot of people have been into Bruce over the years but it hasn't affected his commentary...

 

[Dogsman16]

Going to be pretty difficult for Melbourne to lure Bruce when a major reason he chose us is that he wants to play finals. Hard to do that when you finish 2nd bottom.

 

[footyfan000001]

Back surely. Seems like they want to play two rucks (Ryder and Marshall) and two key forwards (Membrey and Max King). Howard apparently wants to leave because Port are making him play forward so guessing he’ll replace Brown down back and partner with Carlisle.

Don’t mind what the Saints are doing, think it’s worth the risk. Been in nowhere land for a while. Think they’ve had a decent-ish squad for a while, they’ve got a lot of B-grade talent but they just don’t have any A-grade talent and A-grade talent wins games. All the players they’re linked too are quite decent (Hill’s easily the best) but they sort of need Billings, Gresham, Acres and some of their current players to make the leap to AA40 quality to get out of the 7-10 win bracket. They’ve essentially been a poor mans North the last few years.

Not sure how you fit Carlisle, Brown, Howard and Battle in a back 6. Brown probably loses spot.

 

[Doggy]

Not sure how you fit Carlisle, Brown, Howard and Battle in a back 6. Brown probably loses spot.

We need another key defender

Not Brown though

 

[cecil]

Howard nominating Saints is great for us, as now they likely NEED 13.
While they don't have a lot to play with now, they could maybe get something back in the Hill trade, will move to Steven, and also have a 2020 2nd. We should be trying to ream them for those.

Pick 13 and Pick 53 for Bruce, 26 (via Freo as a pick upgrade for Steven pick) and 2020 2nd rounder.

Then swap 32 and 51 for Keath, 2020 3rd.

That gives us Picks 26, 45, and 89 (Young upgrade). Plus 2020 1st, 2 x 2020 2nds and 2 x 2020 3rds.

OUT: Morris, Picken, Boyd, Roberts, Webb, Dickson (Gardner and Smith as rookie delistings)
IN: Bruce, Keath, Pick 26, Pick 45, Young, DFA (Menandue?), 2 rookies

2020 Line Up:
FB: Wood, Trengove, Crozier
HB: JJ, Keath, Daniel
C: Hunter, Bont, Richards
HF: Smith, Naughton, Mclean
FF: Dale, Bruce, Lloyd
R: English, Macrae, Dunkley
Int: Suckling, Libba, Duryea, Lipinski
Emerg: Wallis, Cordy, Schache, Williams

 

[Pugz89]

My bet (and hope) is Dylan Williams

Possie? Strengths? Weaknesses? Similar to which current player?

 

[Virgin Dog]

Possie? Strengths? Weaknesses? Similar to which current player?

He's been likened to a few players, including Stevie J and Robbie Gray.

Very good contested mark, great overhead, all around just good in the contest. Good skills.

His tank is a little poor and he applies little pressure. To be honest, I'm not sure he gets a game with Bailey Dale in the side, but I do like him and with his relatively poor year, he could slide a lot. Would definitely not touch him at Pick 13 though, but I would have jumped at that based on his 2018

 

[Virgin Dog]

Haven't heard anything about that.
Next year we will lose a few if they're not getting a game...

Any names in particular raised? I get the impression a few could be out the door if they're not regularly featuring in the 22, including some that are contracted beyond next year. Lewis Young, Toby McLean, Ed Richards and Bailey Williams are the main ones I'd worry about if they're not regulars (especially Young and Williams)

 

[X_box_X]

Love it Wally, these are some of my favourites. (Hindsight Heroes)

2012: #5 Jake Stringer, #18 Brodie Grundy.
2011: #39 Michael Talia, #58 Lachie Neale.
2009: #15 Christian Howard, #20 Nat Fyfe, #28 Mitch Duncan, #29 Jack Gunston.
2007: #5 Jarrad Grant, #10 Patrick Dangerfield, #12 Cyril Rioli.
2006: #11 Andrejs Everitt, #13 Jack Riewoldt.
2006: #45 Brennan Stack, #55 Robbie Gray.
2006: #66 Malcolm Lynch, #71 Justin Westhoff.
2004: #6 Tom Williams, #7 Jordan Lewis.
2002: #4 Tim Walsh, #5 Jarrad McVeigh.
2001: #10 Sam Power, #13 Nick Dal Santo, #17 James Kelly, #24 Steve Johnson.

I had this dream about a full to the brim trophy cabinet and then it was gone, like magic.

2003.

Bulldogs trade pick 19 to Fremantle in exchange for Steven Koops. Koops goes on to play 11 games before getting delisted.

Freo use the pick 19 they received from the Bulldogs to draft David Mundy who has played over 300 games.