Strategy Trade and List management Thread Part 2 (opposition supporters - READ posting rules before posting)

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fronkalicious

Brownlow Medallist
Apr 10, 2008
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I’ve always thought Reid would make a gun CHB. Not sure of the fit with Keath coming in as well.

I’d have Keath and Reid ahead of Cordy and Lewi young however.
 

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JTCWBFC

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Jul 27, 2009
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I’ve always thought Reid would make a gun CHB. Not sure of the fit with Keath coming in as well.

I’d have Keath and Reid ahead of Cordy and Lewi young however.
Agreed - Cordy could play 3rd tall or not at all if out of form. He shouldn’t be a lock I don’t think.
 

Dog 36

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Oct 4, 2004
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Agreed - Cordy could play 3rd tall or not at all if out of form. He shouldn’t be a lock I don’t think.
You get Keath in only and Cordy will be a completely different player.

He is a footballer that could play in any era.

Cordy will be a premiership CHF and a premiership back man.
 

coxman

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Sep 5, 2012
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You get Keath in only and Cordy will be a completely different player.

He is a footballer that could play in any era.

Cordy will be a premiership CHF and a premiership back man.
Just remember people, Zaine is already the better brother we have had on our list, you have to give him credit for that
 

dergert

Norm Smith Medallist
Jun 17, 2014
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Reid, keath, young, cordy.

Damn good tall back line up.

I dont see cordy as a backman long term and would the addition of Reid stunt the development of lewy young?
 

Dry Rot

My hat is better than yours
Feb 21, 2002
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Hey DR

I guess so. Has there been speculation that he may not??

You keen for us to pounce if Carlton can’t make it happen?

Dunno. Have hardly seen him and Suns play, but the Dogs were chasing him.

Assuming Blues give their first rounder for Papley and they don't have a second rounder.

Dont think the Suns will accept Blues 2020 second round pick and I doubt Blues will give their 2020 first round pick for Martin.

So then what happens?
 

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Braybrook Son

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Jul 4, 2016
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Just remember people, Zaine is already the better brother we have had on our list, you have to give him credit for that
Only because we got both lol. Cordy is a good spoiler I think he could be a good 3rd tall defender, but then we’ve got a few decisions who gets the other 3 defender spots. Maybe play JJ on a wing or HFF
 

WallyStringhaus

All Australian
Aug 27, 2015
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The last five years is too close - when years 1-3 are usually development seasons, an analysis needs players to have been in the system at least 7, probably closer to 10 years to get a full picture of what players can achieve.
Sorry but I just don't agree with this. You go back that far and you find yourself;

a) in the middle of the most compromised drafts since it's inception and

b) back to a time when the bidding system for father/sons had completely different parameters and therefore implications.

When a data set becomes convoluted and shows inconsistencies it simply isn't worth analysing.

I maintain my position that the gap between picks in the early 20's and early to mid 40's is minimal at best and more importantly, not worth the drama that Club officials attach to them.

If the difference between pick 32 and pick 25 is so massive and a potential roadblock to completing trades, then why do clubs give out future picks when they literally have no idea where these picks will land? It's preposterous.

List Manager A: "G'day B. We think player x is worth our 2nd Rnd pick, pick #34"

List Manager B: "That's ridiculous! We have come up with a formula that projects his value at #29 and we won't accept anything less"

List Manager A: "But we only have pick #34"

List Manager B: "Well you're just gonna have to move some things around. You know if you gave us your pick #10 and we give you pick #62 back it actually values him at around #24, which is only 5 spots away from his projected value but hey let's not let a few spots here or there stop us from getting this deal done."

List Manager A: "Uhh..."

List Manager B: "Hold that thought, List Manager C just walked in."

List Manager C: "Hey, we hear you're interested in player z"

List Manager B: "Oh yeah, he's really gonna add some value to our team. Future 2nd get the job done?"

List Manager C: "But that could fall anywhere from 19 to 40 depending on compo picks"

List Manager B: "Look, I know we finished the year off strong, our youth look promising and we've had 4 blokes nominate us but we've crunched some numbers and we reckon that pick is gonna land at about #23. We actually anticipate that we are gonna go backwards a bit next year. It's actually a great time to get our future pick, I swear."

List Manager C: "I'll go get the paperwork"

List Manager B: "You're a bloody ripper C. If only it was this easy with everyone. I've gotta go back to A now, he is such a stubborn and unrealistic prick. Can you believe he's only offered #34 for player x?"
 

Guido

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Aug 18, 2004
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Sorry but I just don't agree with this. You go back that far and you find yourself;

a) in the middle of the most compromised drafts since it's inception and

b) back to a time when the bidding system for father/sons had completely different parameters and therefore implications.

When a data set becomes convoluted and shows inconsistencies it simply isn't worth analysing.

I maintain my position that the gap between picks in the early 20's and early to mid 40's is minimal at best and more importantly, not worth the drama that Club officials attach to them.

If the difference between pick 32 and pick 25 is so massive and a potential roadblock to completing trades, then why do clubs give out future picks when they literally have no idea where these picks will land? It's preposterous.

List Manager A: "G'day B. We think player x is worth our 2nd Rnd pick, pick #34"

List Manager B: "That's ridiculous! We have come up with a formula that projects his value at #29 and we won't accept anything less"

List Manager A: "But we only have pick #34"

List Manager B: "Well you're just gonna have to move some things around. You know if you gave us your pick #10 and we give you pick #62 back it actually values him at around #24, which is only 5 spots away from his projected value but hey let's not let a few spots here or there stop us from getting this deal done."

List Manager A: "Uhh..."

List Manager B: "Hold that thought, List Manager C just walked in."

List Manager C: "Hey, we hear you're interested in player z"

List Manager B: "Oh yeah, he's really gonna add some value to our team. Future 2nd get the job done?"

List Manager C: "But that could fall anywhere from 19 to 40 depending on compo picks"

List Manager B: "Look, I know we finished the year off strong, our youth look promising and we've had 4 blokes nominate us but we've crunched some numbers and we reckon that pick is gonna land at about #23. We actually anticipate that we are gonna go backwards a bit next year. It's actually a great time to get our future pick, I swear."

List Manager C: "I'll go get the paperwork"

List Manager B: "You're a bloody ripper C. If only it was this easy with everyone. I've gotta go back to A now, he is such a stubborn and unrealistic prick. Can you believe he's only offered #34 for player x?"
The compromised drafts are a valid point, and yes, future picks are an unknown.

But outside of that, I'll give you a guarantee that about half the players you're currently including in your 2013-2018 analysis will be delisted by the time they're 25. You, I, nor the clubs know which ones. To know which guys have truly made it, which picks ranges where the best to invest in, you need to know which players go on to be 100, 150, 200 gamers, see where they sit among their clubs best players, where they sit in the comp's top 50/100 players, and you can usually only really do that after 7-10 years. There's plenty of players who look great and get a few games under their belt initially but don't kick on with solid/good careers.

And regarding just getting deals done, I'm always for minimising outlay, maximising return, however obviously acting in good faith to get a deal done (i.e. not being a dodoro about it).

This attitude "ah well, overs is ok" - and doing so consistently, costs good players, which can cost a premiership. Missing the opportunity to get ONE great player unecessarily by giving, say, a pick 25 away when playing hardball might have got the deal done for a lesser pick, could potentially dictate whether we win a close final or two. We seem to always flinch, but I've been very impressed with Sam up until this point.

Once in a while when a premiership tilt is on the line and it's a key player and the deal is on a knife edge, I'm happy to pay above market, but having that attitude consistently with most trades will eventually undermine the list.

Personally being of a Greek background, your anecdote about being offered $200 and accepting a slab has almost given me a seizure. I would have got the $200 and the slab out of him.
 
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doggiesmrx

Premiership Player
Jun 8, 2006
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Does anyone know how it actually works between the clubs? Is there an external person in the middle who relays the messages or is it direct contact between clubs? Surely some discussions get Very heated? Eg today with Hill.
 

LukasTheGreat

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Sep 7, 2011
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Does anyone know how it actually works between the clubs? Is there an external person in the middle who relays the messages or is it direct contact between clubs? Surely some discussions get Very heated? Eg today with Hill.
They're all mates, most of them have worked together for years. They're all doing what's best for their clubs and it'd very rarely be personal.
 
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