Strategy Trade and List management Thread Part 2 (opposition supporters - READ posting rules before posting)

[JJHunter]

I’d like to see Toby spend a bit more time forward.

He is actually one of our only mids with break away speed from a stoppage - have a feeling his fwd days are behind him outside of rotations there

 

[Yojimbo]

Has Bevo lost the players? Since 16 things have gone off the rails in a big way. I can’t understand why Bevo would change the game plan and recruit and select the way he has. Recruiting players to take the place of premiership players is stupid. Selecting premiership players in the 2s is stupid. You don’t get first form playing in the 2s. You just don’t get rid of premiership players just because its trendy, no other team has done this to the scale we have. Bevo has indeed lost the plot, its back to amateur hour. I’m not telling you guys anything new the writing is on the wall

Every coach loses the players, perhaps with us the real damage was done BB (Before Bevo) and I mean well before. Dahlhaus was
a premiership player with us, but he is going to have a hard time establishing himself at Geelong as a small player with poor
disposal. Geelong have plenty of young talent in his position that will challenge and surpass him very quickly.

 

[ExRoyboy]

It took me nearly a day but I finally managed to read/skim through this thread after getting over 500 posts behind. It was an interesting discussion, some of which was stimulating but most of which reflected poorly on our board. (IMO we should be focussing on the footy rather than beating each other up, but of course everybody is free to make their own choice about that.)

It might take a while for the full details of what happened with Wingard to filter out. Or we may never know. It seemed to me from reading the various interpretations and laments that most people would only focus on one or two aspects and no single account took all the reported facts into account.

Ultimately it won't matter too much in terms of Wingard (unless of course the Hawks deal falls through). It's obvious that what IS important to us is the light it might shine on the sort of club we are and the calibre of our list management team.

Here's one possible explanation which uses a lot of the points already made. I've tried to put them together to fit all the known facts (or likely "facts") and suppositions. Happy to be corrected if I've missed something.

• The WB had been nibbling away at Wingard since Trengove arrived and had hoped to prise him free this year or next.
• Hawthorn were also working on him for quite a while.
• Port regarded Wingard as disposable because he was expensive, underperforming, a poor role model and difficult to manage. His post season interview may have been "a shape up or look elsewhere" discussion.
• Both parties realised it was best for him to move on soon - before it results in a Stringer-like fire sale (or he becomes a UFA) and before his potential contract salary dropped (eg if he had another sub-par year at Port in 2019).
• Wingard always favoured Hawthorn, from way back. It was probably "other" factors - nothing to do with salary offers at that stage.
• Port's priority was to trade up into the top 7, preferably higher. They had made this requirement clear to Hawthorn in early talks.
• Wingard/Petroro knew this so they explored an acceptable alternative who could do a deal with Port (WB, pick #7) but were waiting to see whether a Hawks-Port deal could be done.
• This is why they said "believe nothing until you hear from us".
• It's also why the WB camp became quite confident - nothing was happening at Hawthorn (who were busy chasing Shiel) and Wingard/Petroro had given the WB strong verbal indications that their sales pitch looked pretty attractive (but no assurances yet).
• Port's public comments were simply "straight bat" statements - he's ours and he's contracted - while they waited for things to play out.

Then two things happened:

1. The Shiel deal fell through. He went to Essendon rather than Hawthorn. Hawthorn switched its attention and resources to Wingard.
2. Port got pick 6 from Freo in exchange for two later picks. They were now in the top 6 of the draft so they could afford to look at alternative offers from Hawthorn, e.g. Burton.

So the obstacles to going to Hawthorn were removed. The Hawks might even have increased Wingard's salary offer after missing out on Shiel. Wingard then declares for Hawthorn.

Perhaps that's not the only possible explanation of what happened but it's a likely one IMO.

If it played out like that we can hardly blame Sam Power for "failing" to land Wingard. We would always have been Wingard's handy Plan B, never his preference. We probably did well to even be in the running. Yes, Sam could have thrown more at both Port and Wingard to try to get them to change their mind but that would probably have been out of all proportion to Wingard's value to the Dogs and may have breached the WB's own principles on relative player payments. It might also have cruelled other yet to be disclosed plans if it burned up all our trade assets.

If this is what really happened it would also reinforce the point many have made that we aren't generally seen by star players in their prime as a destination club.

I dislike the term and the self-perpetuating concept of a "destination club" ... but we'd better get used to it. The only seismic shifts of power among Victorian clubs in the last 50 years have been Hawthorn's rise to power over the 70s and 80s and perhaps Melbourne's gradual decline from powerhouse of the 50s and 60s to become a low-to-middle ranked club due to its persistent lack of success since 1964.

Very little else has changed much apart from South Melbourne and Fitzroy disappearing. We narrowly avoided going the same way ourselves.

Our future probably lies in us being a boutique club that can identify and market its "points of difference" and leverage its supporter base. However if the history of smaller clubs is any guide we will be lucky to average a Grand Final appearance more than once every 15-20 years.

Don't expect us to become an AFL powerhouse in your lifetime. Even if you are a teenager. If we do happen to become a "destination club" my view is that it will only be for a brief window while we have a strong list together but it will almost certainly be short-lived.

I can live with that. Go Dogs!

I think this is probably a pretty good summary of both what happened with Wingard and where the Bulldogs sit in the current Victorian AFL landscape. I was a follower of Fitzroy back in the 70’s, 80’s & 90’s and they were a once strong club that was both mismanaged and fell into being a small club before finally being merged and disappearing altogether. Hawthorn conversely have been well managed and have been able to go from a small club to being a perennial powerhouse. It’s not impossible for the Bulldogs to do the same but probably unlikely. Sustained success is the key to doing this. It’s why most of us are so disappointed that we didn’t translate our 2016 Premiership into a more sustained run of success. Instead we let the celebration and success get to us and the players couldn’t hold it together. The bright side is that I believe we have still managed to build a good core of young players, many of whom have that Premiership and Finals experience. I believe we aren’t that far away from being able to get back to the top. The other thing I would say is that even the smaller clubs can have sustained periods of success where they make Grand Finals more than once every 15-20 years. When we get there we have to make the most of it and win like North Melb did in the nineties or StKilda about a decade ago (except we have to win the Premierships unlike StKilda who eventually squandered their opportunities). We will get another chance with this list and we have to make the most of it. Wingard won’t be the piece that makes or breaks it, but we do need to keep nailing our high draft picks. I personally would take pick 7 to the draft this year and get another gun young player to match with Rhylee West.

 

[0utsider]

Here's some fascinating, possibly pointless data. Here are the 8 teams that had the most games played in 2018 by guys they brought in through trade/free agency at the end of last year.

Club Games 2018 ladder Change from 2017
Essendon 64 11 -4
Port 48 10 -3
Dogs 46 13 -3
Gold Coast 44 17 0
Fremantle 39 14 0
Brisbane 30 15 3
Carlton 29 18 -2
Adelaide 27 12 -10

Yikes.

Richmond and North had awesome seasons. They brought in nobody at all. Collingwood and West Coast brought in 1 unknown each (Ah Chee and Murray), neither of which played many games, nor played in the finals.

Melbourne only had Lever, who only played 11 games, and their form spiked incredibly at the end of the season without him.

Make your own minds up as to what this all means.

This seems pretty significant to me, a person who knows nothing about statistics. Surely it can't be an anomaly that every one of those clubs either underachieved with the exception of maybe Brisbane.

 

[DognBones]

Several posters over on Collingwood board figuring Roughead is worth pick 57 at best. Might as well keep him for that. What do others think about that?

 

[Bonts4]

Several posters over on Collingwood board figuring Roughead is worth pick 57 at best. Might as well keep him for that. What do others think about that?

Take it and run

 

[Freshwater]

Has Bevo lost the players? Since 16 things have gone off the rails in a big way. I can’t understand why Bevo would change the game plan and recruit and select the way he has. Recruiting players to take the place of premiership players is stupid. Selecting premiership players in the 2s is stupid. You don’t get first form playing in the 2s. You just don’t get rid of premiership players just because its trendy, no other team has done this to the scale we have. Bevo has indeed lost the plot, its back to amateur hour. I’m not telling you guys anything new the writing is on the wall

No he hasn’t! It’s a new era of player movement. We had a lot of ‘cooked’ players after the flag. Biggs, Clay, M Boyd, Pickers??, and poor old Roughie. He just couldn’t play some of these guys, as well as Fletcher too. Things move quick in the AFL now, pity journos and fans too (me included) can’t fathom the rapid change. Just because players leave doesn’t mean things are bad. Doesn’t mean he is not accountable and that is the footy departments role as well as the board. They need to always keep things healthy.

 

[Brian Perrin]

Take it and run

If we lose Roughy do we need to keep Campbell? And if so is that the smart choice or are we just doing this to be kind to an outstanding clubman whose time has past?


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Philthy1]

Has Bevo lost the players? Since 16 things have gone off the rails in a big way. I can’t understand why Bevo would change the game plan and recruit and select the way he has. Recruiting players to take the place of premiership players is stupid. Selecting premiership players in the 2s is stupid. You don’t get first form playing in the 2s. You just don’t get rid of premiership players just because its trendy, no other team has done this to the scale we have. Bevo has indeed lost the plot, its back to amateur hour. I’m not telling you guys anything new the writing is on the wall

Are you Damian Barrett incognito by any chance?

 

[cecil]

If we lose Roughy do we need to keep Campbell? And if so is that the smart choice or are we just doing this to be kind to an outstanding clubman whose time has past?


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

I wouldn't be surprised if we had told Roughy that he would be behind Trengove, English and Boyd if he stayed, and therefore would probably have limited chances at senior level (similar to Campbell this year). He's then explored FA hoping to get a better chance of AFL games, rather than play that role. I'd say we will be keeping one, unless we decide to delist Campbell too and pick up a mature aged replacement.

 

[Bonts4]

If we lose Roughy do we need to keep Campbell? And if so is that the smart choice or are we just doing this to be kind to an outstanding clubman whose time has past?


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

Might be able to be ok without both of them , I have no idea what the club is thinking

 

[gordo2016]

The trade discussions are a long way from Brooklyn, New York. Bontempelli, Crozier and Dunkley have been working out at Gleasons gym. Liberatore has also been seen in the Western Bulldogs gym.

 

[Doggies_13]

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2015-11-...t-the-exciting-and-crafty-forward-ryan-burton

exciting craft midsized forward, 191cm with midfield possibilities.

hawks have played him back because they have more forward class than defensive class, and according to hawks forum, clarko tends to play his young future forwards in defence to teach them a bit about defensive nous. Im paraphrasing them here, I have no knowledge myself.

So a classy exciting midsized forward with presence and a mature body ready to go? yes please.

Pick 7 for pick 15 and burton, or some variant of that, I would be all over if burton is not un der a medical cloud

I just don’t see him being a forward from what I’ve seen of him but that’s just my opinion.

Either way he’s not worth giving up pick 7, if we downgrade 7 to 15 we are basically giving 7 for Burton and west. If he came for a second rounder sure but not downgrading 7

 

[King Harold]

Making love to my wife

Yeah that's 10 minutes gone , what else are you doing ?

 

[Doggies_13]

Pick 7 and What else for pick 4????

Probably takes 7 and next years first for 4 and saints future second. It’s the only way we could beat the sa teams.

But if we could turn that pick 4 into Rankine and a future second or Ports picks 6 and 10 I’d be happy with that.

Basically 7 and future first for 6 and 10 this year if we on send pick 4 to port.

 

[TedDougChris]

If we lose Roughy do we need to keep Campbell? And if so is that the smart choice or are we just doing this to be kind to an outstanding clubman whose time has past?


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

Perhaps with the new mid season draft, we will be ok without both ?

The AFL change the rules so often it’s hard to develop a short term plan and then execute it, let alone a long term one....

 

[topdog]

If we lose Roughy do we need to keep Campbell? And if so is that the smart choice or are we just doing this to be kind to an outstanding clubman whose time has past?


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

Believe it’s the only reason why they haven’t delisted Campbell already, just wanted to see what would happen with Roughead first. No way both would have been on our list in 2019

 

[Brian Perrin]

Believe it’s the only reason why they haven’t delisted Campbell already, just wanted to see what would happen with Roughead first. No way both would have been on our list in 2019

To my mind we would be better with Roughy than Campbell....so the reason we let Roughy walk is he either wants too much or we believe he is truly cooked


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Spiritof82]

Believe it’s the only reason why they haven’t delisted Campbell already, just wanted to see what would happen with Roughead first. No way both would have been on our list in 2019

More upside to Campbell than Roarke Smith and we kept him on

 

[gangsta deluxe]

Several posters over on Collingwood board figuring Roughead is worth pick 57 at best. Might as well keep him for that. What do others think about that?

Take that without a moment's hesitation and doubt very much we get it.

He's not in contract, we aren't interested and nobody else is. He's practically worthless.

 

[BallaratBulldog]

We could alway revive Zac Clarke for a backup

I remember when rumors we were after him.

 

[topdog]

More upside to Campbell than Roarke Smith and we kept him on

Campbell is purely insurance if all English, Boyd and Trengrove go down. Same would have applied if Roughead stayed but Campbell cheaper option.

 

[Yojimbo]

More upside to Campbell than Roarke Smith and we kept him on

Can he skate ? Did not think so !

 

[Chadley]

More upside to Campbell than Roarke Smith and we kept him on

Smith (22 years) played 10 games this year
Campbell (26 years) has played 10 games in the last 3 seasons

not sure you understand what upside means.

 

[Munnez]

And we

At the moment J-Mac seems to be running GWS like a crazy going out of business carpet and rug sale....

This is both strange and a truly magnificent outcome.

And we thought he was bad when he was with us