Strategy Trade and List management Thread Part 3 (opposition supporters - READ posting rules before posting)

[Anja_Nees]

you evil man . The rumour I heard is that young Smith is a confident young man who is backing himself in to have another big year next year and command a big deal (with us!) and loves the idea of being a one-club player.

At least that is what I tell myself as I rock myself to sleep each night

Club keen on a deal, apparently it might happen soon but will be short term (ie two years) so he can back himself in for a big deal.

 

[Doggstats]

What do we think Power n co have planned to get enough points for next years NGA draft haul?

If Marra ends up going #1, how will we afford him after we win the flag and are left with pick 18.

As well as the other bids we may have to match...

 

[_M_16_]

What do we think Power n co have planned to get enough points for next years NGA draft haul?

If Marra ends up going #1, how will we afford him after we win the flag and are left with pick 18.

As well as the other bids we may have to match...

Worry about it next year. We have zero idea what the trajectory of our NGA kids will be between now and next draft. So pretty much hard to speculate what we need to do when we do not know their value. But have faith the club has it under control. Will likely see some picks or players shifted around to accommodate. May even take a hit and accept a points deficit in 2021, despite the paranoia of some about that. If Marra ends being a projected high end first round pick, then you have to cough up/make sacrifices.

 

[Bont2Bruce]

Ok, I had some idea that it is 4 rookie spots max, therefore, it is a given that one of them will be promoted because they are all contracted for 2020, the obvious choice being Lachie Young.

The total players that can be on the club's lists (senior + rookie) is capped at 44 until it gets extended to 45 at the mid-season draft. The maximum number of senior listed players is 40 and the minimum is 38. Most clubs take 40 senior listed players but those with salary cap issues often take less. Sydney and GWS I think have been doing this for a while now.

We currently have 37 senior listed players contracted for 2020 and beyond and 5 rookie listed players who are contracted for 2020 (I believe Khamis received a 2 year deal when he was drafted, not what is shown on the pinned Contract thread on this board though).

We have to take 3 selections in the draft, one of which could be a rookie upgrade. In our case, it has to be, unless we delist one of our existing rookies (and likely pay them out in advance for their 2020 wages) which seems unlikely. If we draft 3 players, we would end up with 45 contracted players which is one more than allowed. The only solution would be to upgrade a rookie and draft 2 players, leaving us with 44 in total.

We won't be participating in the rookie draft as we have no room to add Cat A rookies. We could add a Cat B rookie, if we wanted to, as they aren't counted within the overall list size cap of 44.

 

[stefoid]

What do we think Power n co have planned to get enough points for next years NGA draft haul?

If Marra ends up going #1, how will we afford him after we win the flag and are left with pick 18.

As well as the other bids we may have to match...

My wife worries about 'problems' like this

 

[TempletonTheRat]

The total players that can be on the club's lists (senior + rookie) is capped at 44 until it gets extended to 45 at the mid-season draft

I don't think that is quite right.

teams can have up to 44 senior and rookie listed players made up of anywhere from 38 + 6 to 40 + 4
on top of that a club can list up to "X" Category B rookies (i'm unsure what number we can actually have)

The Mid season draft only allows you to draft a player if one of your senior spots has been vacated by a retirement ( or perhaps a long term injury)

I don't believe you can extend from 44 to 45 in the mid season draft if you already have a full list of 44

 

[Bont2Bruce]

I don't think that is quite right.

teams can have up to 44 senior and rookie listed players made up of anywhere from 38 + 6 to 40 + 4
on top of that a club can list up to "X" Category B rookies (i'm unsure what number we can actually have)

The Mid season draft only allows you to draft a player if one of your senior spots has been vacated by a retirement ( or perhaps a long term injury)

I don't believe you can extend from 44 to 45 in the mid season draft if you already have a full list of 44

The mid-season draftee can come in for a retirement but also for a long-term injury. From a contractual perspective, the either retired or injured player is still getting paid under the salary cap for that year and hence the mid-season extra player effectively takes the total list size to 45.

 

[TempletonTheRat]

The mid-season draftee can come in for a retirement but also for a long-term injury. From a contractual perspective, the either retired or injured player is still getting paid under the salary cap for that year and hence the mid-season extra player effectively takes the total list size to 45.

yes but you cant go to 45 without a LTI or retirement

 

[Bont2Bruce]

teams can have up to 44 senior and rookie listed players made up of anywhere from 38 + 6 to 40 + 4
on top of that a club can list up to "X" Category B rookies (i'm unsure what number we can actually have)

A club can have up to 3 Category B rookies.

 

[Sentinel]

The mid-season draftee can come in for a retirement but also for a long-term injury. From a contractual perspective, the either retired or injured player is still getting paid under the salary cap for that year and hence the mid-season extra player effectively takes the total list size to 45.

Do you know how it would work if someone on the LTI returned later in the season? If their club has used a pick in the mid-season draft, do they then get to play with an additional player, or are there restrictions involved?

 

[Bont2Bruce]

Do you know how it would work if someone on the LTI returned later in the season? If their club has used a pick in the mid-season draft, do they then get to play with an additional player, or are there restrictions involved?

Short answer, no. This the AFL we are talking about, every chance they didn't necessarily think this through. If they did plan for this scenario, I would have expected the rules to be that the nominated LTI player was unavailable to return for the remainder of that year.

I do recall that under the old rookie-list rules, clubs could nominate a player on the LTI to be replaced by a rookie-upgrade and there was 8-week minimum duration during which that rookie could play senior AFL games. Those rules did allow substitution of the LTI player for another LTI player, but I've not seen anything about whether a similar arrangement is available for the current mid-season draft rules.

 

[Mofra]

Short answer, no. This the AFL we are talking about, every chance they didn't necessarily think this through. If they did plan for this scenario, I would have expected the rules to be that the nominated LTI player was unavailable to return for the remainder of that year.

I do recall that under the old rookie-list rules, clubs could nominate a player on the LTI to be replaced by a rookie-upgrade and there was 8-week minimum duration during which that rookie could play senior AFL games. Those rules did allow substitution of the LTI player for another LTI player, but I've not seen anything about whether a similar arrangement is available for the current mid-season draft rules.

I guess the other consideration is - what if Lachie Young has a cracking pre-season and winds up in the selected round 1 side? He played 6 AFL games as a skinny rookie and a late start to the pre-season. Stranger things have happened.
If we go in with two KPDs he's that tallish type that can chop out as the third man up, and can use the ball well.

 

[VitalDread]

What do we think Power n co have planned to get enough points for next years NGA draft haul?

If Marra ends up going #1, how will we afford him after we win the flag and are left with pick 18.

As well as the other bids we may have to match...

Reckon moving of 2021 picks

 

[Bont2Bruce]

I guess the other consideration is - what if Lachie Young has a cracking pre-season and winds up in the selected round 1 side? He played 6 AFL games as a skinny rookie and a late start to the pre-season. Stranger things have happened.
If we go in with two KPDs he's that tallish type that can chop out as the third man up, and can use the ball well.

I don't think I have followed you to the place that your post finished up at.

 

[VitalDread]

WESTERN BULLDOGS
Bailey Smith (out of contract)

There's little reason to believe Smith will leave the Kennel but eyebrows are always raised when a top-10 selection hasn't re-signed before his first season is over. That may change if players start delaying their second contracts. Smith was highly impressive this year and won't move interstate, so it's likely only a matter of time until the teenager agrees to extend his time at the Dogs.

 

[TBOW]

Reckon moving of 2021 picks

A bit of a confusing, technical question that I’m not sure anyone can answer –

With future pick trading and points deficits for Academy and FS picks, what happens if a club goes into points deficit for a player with a pick that they have traded out?

For instance if next year we traded out our 2021 first round pick prior to the draft – then when the draft came around (for some reason) we don’t have the points to match a bid on Marra – does the point deduction for the following year come from the pick we traded away (by the rules it is taken from the same round as the player is bid on) - or does it get taken from the next available pick we have in that draft (similar to how FS and academy points are deducted).

Does anyone know? Does anyone even understand what I am on about?

 

[VitalDread]

A bit of a confusing, technical question that I’m not sure anyone can answer –

With future pick trading and points deficits for Academy and FS picks, what happens if a club goes into points deficit for a player with a pick that they have traded out?

For instance if next year we traded out our 2021 first round pick prior to the draft – then when the draft came around (for some reason) we don’t have the points to match a bid on Marra – does the point deduction for the following year come from the pick we traded away (by the rules it is taken from the same round as the player is bid on) - or does it get taken from the next available pick we have in that draft (similar to how FS and academy points are deducted).

Does anyone know? Does anyone even understand what I am on about?

AFL has a new rule which allows a 5min trading window so teams can get more picks for their NGA/FS players

So teams will jump at the chance to get an extra pick if the team is desperate.

 

[Yojimbo]

Does anyone know? Does anyone even understand what I am on about?

From this years draft:

"An adjustment to GWS recognising deficit points used in the 2018 NAB AFL Draft (Keiren Briggs), offset by
surplus points from the 2015 NAB AFL Draft (Jacob Hopper) moving GWS from the third round (55) to the
fourth round (57)"

A "Ralph Wiggum" meme seems appropriate right about now to explain what I just typed.

 

[David C]

yes but you cant go to 45 without a LTI or retirement

You can actually go even more if multiple retirements and/or LTI's, depending on salary cap constraints.

 

[Dogs Rule]

What do we think Power n co have planned to get enough points for next years NGA draft haul?

If Marra ends up going #1, how will we afford him after we win the flag and are left with pick 18.

As well as the other bids we may have to match...

If we win the flag next year, I reckon draft points will be a fair way down on the list of worries.

Just sayin’

 

[theBigB]

Worry about it next year. We have zero idea what the trajectory of our NGA kids will be between now and next draft. So pretty much hard to speculate what we need to do when we do not know their value. But have faith the club has it under control. Will likely see some picks or players shifted around to accommodate. May even take a hit and accept a points deficit in 2021, despite the paranoia of some about that. If Marra ends being a projected high end first round pick, then you have to cough up/make sacrifices.

This is the wrong attitude to have, and I hope it's not what our list management have in mind.

 

[threenewpadlocks]

This is the wrong attitude to have, and I hope it's not what our list management have in mind.

No, but not factoring in proper uncertainty in how much can change in the last year before being can also lead to other list management opportunities gone begging. And it's not as uncommon as you think, especially as players drift. James Aish had come off a SANFL flag as a 16 year old and was considered a sure number 1 for the year in advance given how rare and great an achievement that was for a 16 year old. Slipped to pick 6 in the draft, and since hasn't lived up to the quality of a pick 6 in the draft. Other names like Hugh Goddard were considered top 5 a year in advance and slipped to the teens (and also haven't lived up to that) and even others like Nick O'Kearney a few years back was a top 20 or so prospect a year in advance before slipping. There's probably countless others that I've forgotten.

No doubt we should understand that we have good talent as it lies, but "worry about it next year" is shorthand for not decisions about future list management with over-the-top certainty against the uncertainty about how our talent will be rated in next year's draft some 13 months away now.

 

[ScragCity]

WESTERN BULLDOGS
Bailey Smith (out of contract)

There's little reason to believe Smith will leave the Kennel but eyebrows are always raised when a top-10 selection hasn't re-signed before his first season is over. That may change if players start delaying their second contracts. Smith was highly impressive this year and won't move interstate, so it's likely only a matter of time until the teenager agrees to extend his time at the Dogs.

Richmond have expressed interest in him. They want someone who can replace Cotchin over the next few years.

 

[_M_16_]

This is the wrong attitude to have, and I hope it's not what our list management have in mind.

I was directing that part towards the poster, not implying that the club themselves shouldn't worry about it, because no doubt the club has some idea or plan ready in motion. You've read that the wrong way by miles. I was just saying that we should save the debate for, and worry about it next season when it comes around. Because even we don't know how many points we would need to use, we don't know the trajectory of any of our NGA kids. Whether we will bid on them all, one or none. Its impossible to predict future scenarios. Will save a year of pointless worrying and debate on here, healthier to worry about it when the time comes. People are asking for a answer to something we cannot be definitive about.

There are heaps of things we can do to address any points issues, such as trading players for picks, or the popular one, we will trade 2021 picks into 2020. Heck, the club may even decide to take a points deficit into 2021. Those are the answers. But which way out of those will the club go? We cannot tell until the end of next season when we know where our NGA kids are at in terms of list fits, and rankings amongst the draft crop, teams ladder positions, who has what pick, etc. Not even the club themselves will know for sure until the picture becomes clearer for them, then they will start to turn the wheels and come up with a plan on how to make things happen. We will be fine, I trust the club to know what they are doing and have a plan set aside.

If Jamarra gets bid on at pick 1, and we have 18, then we have to cough up and pay up for what a pick 1 is worth. There is no avoiding that. But is that seriously a bad thing? We'd be getting pick 1 as a defending premier if we had pick 18. We'd be laughing at that into the next decade at that.

 

[Virgin Dog]

Schache extended for 2 years