Strategy Trade and List management Thread Part 3 (opposition supporters - READ posting rules before posting)

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dogwatch

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On a separate note, I am going to be so pissed if GWS draft Hayden Young with Pick 4 as well as getting Green. Ridiculous how long they've been able to stretch those initial draft concessions out through trading surplus talent for more picks
Don’t stress. Young can join his older brother at the Lost Giants Home in a couple of years.

On a more serious note you’ve got to hand it to GWS’ brains trust. They have cannily worked the draft and special concessions since day 1 of their brief existence.

We’re just lucky that a number of their higher picks have turned out to be duds but they’ve certainly given themselves plenty of draft ammunition over the years.
 

Dogs_R_Us

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The irony would be special. GWS elected not to bid on Viney allowing the Demons to take another player in the first round before having to use a pick to get Viney. A comment at the time was that “GWS didn’t owe the other teams any favours “. Melbourne not returning the favour would be just desserts for GWS.
( what are “just desserts “ anyway?)
It’s actually “just deserts” , one s, means that which is deserved.

You’re welcome 😉
 

Mojorisin

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Unless Melbourne think that they can get Ash at 8 to play half back and want to go something different at 3
I have them taking both..

Pick 1 Sun's - Rowell
Pick 2 Sun's - anderson
Pick 3 Melb - young
Pick 4 gws - Jackson
Pick 5 gws - green (match bid)
Pick 6 swans - Kemp
Pick 7 Crows - Flanders
Pick 8 Freo - d. Stephens
Pick 9 Melb - ash
Pick 10 Freo - Henry (match bid)
Pick 11 blues - weightman
Pick 12 hawks - Mcasey
Pick 13 port - serong
Pick 14 dogs - bergman
Pick 15 cats - Robertson
Pick 16 suns - rantall
Pick 17 port - pickett
Pick 18 cats - Worrell
Pick 19 port - day
Pick 20 hawks - maginness (match bid)
Pick 21 tigers - rivers
 

Triple Baileys

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They have done it well but credit to the AFL architects they made it almost idiot proof. If you look back over all the GWS selections in the 1 to 20 range they have had more than their fare share if misses


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They got so many it didn't matter if half were fails. But that was probably all part of the plan.
 

Bro_Pro

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What would it cost us to get a pick in the top 10 before the hawks..? As I really like Mcasey. Our pick 13 and 2020 Adelaides 3rd for freos pick 10...?
 

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Mojorisin

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What would it cost us to get a pick in the top 10 before the hawks..? As I really like Mcasey. Our pick 13 and 2020 Adelaides 3rd for freos pick 10...?
It would definitely be a premium price.
I think 13 is a great position anyway, happily pick who slides or if not go for a bolter (bergman, rantall, pickett)
 

bobs head soup

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What would it cost us to get a pick in the top 10 before the hawks..? As I really like Mcasey. Our pick 13 and 2020 Adelaides 3rd for freos pick 10...?
If Henry gets bid on before 10, the pick will be on the table to the highest bidder. As a few clubs have multiple picks in the late first/2nd rounds, not sure we'll have the ammunition to be that bidder
 

Mofra

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What would it cost us to get a pick in the top 10 before the hawks..? As I really like Mcasey. Our pick 13 and 2020 Adelaides 3rd for freos pick 10...?
Trading up is dangerous.
Posters here were very keen to trade up from pick 4 to pick 1 to get Boyd (missing out on Bontempelli) and also two years ago to make sure we got Coffield (ahead of pick 9, we took Naughton).

I say no silly trading up or down this year - just take 13 to the draft and use it.
 

Testekill

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Trading up is dangerous.
Posters here were very keen to trade up from pick 4 to pick 1 to get Boyd (missing out on Bontempelli) and also two years ago to make sure we got Coffield (ahead of pick 9, we took Naughton).

I say no silly trading up or down this year - just take 13 to the draft and use it.
Yup, if Melbourne bids on Greene (which I would personally do out of spite) then GWS will have played silly buggers for nothing. Trying to be too cute to get a slightly stronger draft hand is playing a dangerous game
 

Virgin Dog

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Yup, if Melbourne bids on Greene (which I would personally do out of spite) then GWS will have played silly buggers for nothing. Trying to be too cute to get a slightly stronger draft hand is playing a dangerous game
I'd imagine GWS must have a contingency plan in place - something like swapping that Pick 4 for Gold Coast's future 1st. This is way too high-risk for them to not have an out. I really do hope Melbourne bids on Green. He's clearly in that top 3 bracket, so passing on him means either Melbourne stand out as the contrary opinion on his ranking, or they're intentionally avoiding the bid.

I know they have way too many inside mids as it is, but Jones is basically done and Brayshaw could end up in Perth at some stage in the near future. Just like us drafting Bailey Smith when we already had quality young mids sitting on the fringe (Lipinski and McLean especially), you just have to go with best available, and I fail to see how anyone could consider Jackson better than Green
 

Virgin Dog

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Think Adelaide is going to make a play for Jack Lukosius with their extra first round pick next year?
They might as well. Commit to a full rebuild, and they'll be looking at a fairly low pick. I'm not as convinced as others that Adelaide will be that bad next year though considering they really didn't lose as much as you might think. The only significant loss was Keath, but they'll get Doedee back to replace him so it's not as bad as it seems. The rest of the players they lost were pretty average, while their elite talent stayed.

Either way, they should end up with some pick combination like 7 + 14, which you'd think would be way more than enough to snag Lukosius
 

Bulldogs Legend

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Trading up is dangerous.
Posters here were very keen to trade up from pick 4 to pick 1 to get Boyd (missing out on Bontempelli) and also two years ago to make sure we got Coffield (ahead of pick 9, we took Naughton).

I say no silly trading up or down this year - just take 13 to the draft and use it.
Someone on Twitter put Dan Lonegrans tweet from 2013 imploring the Dogs to pick Aish not Bont. Lucky he is not in charge of our recruiting!


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Philthy1

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They have done it well but credit to the AFL architects they made it almost idiot proof. If you look back over all the GWS selections in the 1 to 20 range they have had more than their fare share if misses


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And with JMac in charge of list management now there is a good chance they will have even more misses in the future.

And back it up with contracting duds to long term contracts and opening the door for good players to leave by not signing keepers up soon enough...
 

dogwatch

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So true, my friend, so true. It's THE difference between GWS and GCS. GCS must be so bitter. What did they do wrong? Potential TV audience reach not as big?
One thing that worked strongly in GWS’ favour was coming in a year after GCS. They had the benefit of seeing how the entry concessions worked (without knowing at that stage whether GC would be successful) and so it seems they sat down and worked out a slightly more sophisticated strategy.

Not saying they developed it all on the spot - it has probably evolved and been refined over the years - but it seems their intent was less of a once-off shopping splurge than that of GCS. One obvious benefit of trying to spread their high level picks over many years is that you don’t waste valuable picks on non-elite players, once the top half dozen or so have gone.

Much as I dislike the club I admire their tactical approach to list building. It’s just a shame from their perspective that they’ve wasted a lot of carefully cultivated picks on dud players.

It’d be interesting to read a summary from an insider on the whole process, and to compare it to the way GCS went about the building of their own foundation playing list. I’d like to know whether all their moves have been deliberately crafted - or have some just been made up as they go along?
 

Mattdougie

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One thing that worked strongly in GWS’ favour was coming in a year after GCS. They had the benefit of seeing how the entry concessions worked (without knowing at that stage whether GC would be successful) and so it seems they sat down and worked out a slightly more sophisticated strategy.

Not saying they developed it all on the spot - it has probably evolved and been refined over the years - but it seems their intent was less of a once-off shopping splurge than that of GCS. One obvious benefit of trying to spread their high level picks over many years is that you don’t waste valuable picks on non-elite players, once the top half dozen or so have gone.

Much as I dislike the club I admire their tactical approach to list building. It’s just a shame from their perspective that they’ve wasted a lot of carefully cultivated picks on dud players.

It’d be interesting to read a summary from an insider on the whole process, and to compare it to the way GCS went about the building of their own foundation playing list. I’d like to know whether all their moves have been deliberately crafted - or have some just been made up as they go along?
With the amount of picks they have had their dud picks have become irrelevant because if they had hit on every pick they would have lost players due to salary cap restraint.

The way they used their concessions picks basically guaranteed them success even with SOS at the helm. They only had to hit 1 in 4-5 to build an elite core as they have.

Can’t wait til they start to struggle, they will be in dire peril after 3 bad years. No one will care
 
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