Strategy Trade and List management Thread Part 4 (opposition supporters - READ posting rules before posting)

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doggies ftw

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What's the evidence that it does lead to a problem? Do we lose clearances more than other teams? Are other teams somehow more efficient in scoring from clearance wins than the league average against us?
We have the best midfield in the league by an absolute mile, yet still have to bring an extra to stoppages, affecting other parts of our game, to get that advantage in clearances when we really shouldn’t need to with the guys we have in there
 

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BIG_BONTS

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Aug 31, 2011
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For some outside perspective a Collingwood supporter friend today told me that Cox would be a waste of a list spot for us and not even an upgrade for English at ruck work. Obviously a big body but "useless around the ground at the basic fundamentals". Pretty clear why Bevo wouldn't be keen on any player that is one dimensional like that. I haven't seen much of him besides that great Richmond game where he clunked everything
 

TiAn_

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I posted this a couple of weeks ago but I thought with all the recent discussion it would be worth posting again.

45 players contested 200+ ruck contests in 2021. 4 of them were Bulldogs and all 4 ranked in the bottom 12 and all are well below the competition average for Hitout Win Percentage which is 42%...

View attachment 1260489
Jordon Sweet is 6 months older than Sean Darcy & Draper and the same age as Ladhams. I’m not sure how he makes up ground on those guys based on what I’ve seen. Fingers perpetually crossed, I guess.
 

glenashley

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Apr 26, 2013
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What happened to the rumour that two of our Grand Final best 22 would be leaving in the off season? As far as I can tell none of them left.
There were a few reliable posters who dropped hints before the gf.

Was hoping they'd open up by this point. People leaving, ruck in mind....

With respect to them, they may as well have not bothered.

"I've got a secret but I'm not going to tell you".

Edit: Apologies if they didn't know, but were passing on the rumour.
 

Deadly Dunkley

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I posted this a couple of weeks ago but I thought with all the recent discussion it would be worth posting again.

45 players contested 200+ ruck contests in 2021. 4 of them were Bulldogs and all 4 ranked in the bottom 12 and all are well below the competition average for Hitout Win Percentage which is 42%...

View attachment 1260489
This is just a horrendous looking list. Send it to Sammy P……
 

josh the gent

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We did address it we re-signed two ruckman and will draft another
Seriously?

We had a threadbare ruck team in 2021, of whom we lost Lewy Young (is he really a ruck?) and signed nobody to replace him.

The only thing i can think of is that they have confidence in Sweet being the #1 ruck in 2022.

If Sweet gets injured then it’s only Stef Martin in the shed as cover - highly doubtful he can string more than a few games together.

We easily could have hooked our 2022 second rounder as bait to land a serviceable ruck - but doesn’t appear that we even tried…
 

TedDougChris

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Seriously?

We had a threadbare ruck team in 2021, of whom we lost Lewy Young (is he really a ruck?) and signed nobody to replace him.

The only thing i can think of is that they have confidence in Sweet being the #1 ruck in 2022.

If Sweet gets injured then it’s only Stef Martin in the shed as cover - highly doubtful he can string more than a few games together.

We easily could have hooked our 2022 second rounder as bait to land a serviceable ruck - but doesn’t appear that we even tried…
Given our list is stacked with mids, HBF types, with a few small forwards coming through, has a few KPF's now (never thought I'd type that), our two deficiencies are KPD's and ruck. Given we are picking up a long term KPD (potentially with Darcy), where was the risk in a F2 or F3 pick to sure up the ruck area ??

What did we have to lose with this approach ?

Even if we didn't ever bloody play them, it's a ******* insurance policy to prevent another potentially wasted year....

It was worth the pick costs in 2022 to get someone in.
 

Munnez

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If the Eagles delist Brander would he be worth a look as a KPD option 6'4" mobile.
Has enough size shouldn't get massacred in 1 vs 1. With his mobility could see him slotting into our team defence.
And as a DFA would be a free hit think that he has been a player hurt by lack of opportunity . Has been behind some quality KPD at the Eagles, he wouldn't be a star but think he could be a solid citizen and good depth at worst
 

perro_loco

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I can’t believe that people are annoyed that we did not try for Ceglar, Lynch etc.

Ladhams was the one, but question marks on his attitude and not wanting to part with any draft collateral knocked this on the head.

We pick up OBrien and Darcy in the draft and a best available ruck option through the rookie draft and we are well placed.

Sweet will get his chance as no 1 ruckman, Keath and Gardiner as the tall defenders and OBrien keeps Wood and Cordy out to start with.

JUH and Schache fight it out for the 3rd tall forward role while Bruce is out.

Might need to find a new role forward for Crozier and some further improvement from West, Garcia and Richards.

Now we need a couple of complimentary assistant coaches and no reason not to be optimistic for 2022.
Too right. Those rucks are cooked. The thing people need to understand is that Bevo wants a style of ruck who is versatile. That is fast, mobile and can play both back and forward. In short, a new kind of player. One that covers a lot of ground. something like a Bontempelli or petraca but doing ruck work. very hard to find, but that is the next type of player that will emerge.
 

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Golden_6

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If the Eagles delist Brander would he be worth a look as a KPD option 6'4" mobile.
Has enough size shouldn't get massacred in 1 vs 1. With his mobility could see him slotting into our team defence.
And as a DFA would be a free hit think that he has been a player hurt by lack of opportunity . Has been behind some quality KPD at the Eagles, he wouldn't be a star but think he could be a solid citizen and good depth at worst
He’s not a KPD in the slightest.
 

threenewpadlocks

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Our ruck situation is only "threadbare" insofar that we didn't consider English a ruck to start last season and we might consider him a ruck to start next season.

As I've posted a million times, I think the issue lies with the expectations of Schache and JUH starting 2022 in our best 22 when they're not guaranteed to be any good, than English in an of himself.
 

doggiesin08

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Callum Twomey reckons clubs are eyeing off our first pick for points in exchange. The benefit to us is that the points left over from Darcy will be a pick in the late 30s / early 40s instead of a pick at the end of the draft.

Say our pick 23 to Sydney in exchange for 31 and 39. Gives us an extra 237 points. Sydney move up to pick 23.
We don’t need more points in this draft though. I think all that trade achieves is to preserve our picks in the 40s/50s. I’d much rather live flip #23 into just enough points to cover the Darcy bid and receive the excess in 2022 picks. We can the easily trade that extra 2022 pick to get back into there 2nd or 3rd round this year.

the points system is so flawed.
Agree. Happy to be corrected but from memory the points value system was designed around the expected games played by pick and naturally smoothed out. The problem is this doesn’t capture (i) the expected quality of those games and (ii) wasn’t adjusted for the continued improvement in the recruiting caper.

Accordingly the relative values are all wrong which is evidenced by the repeated ability to extract 30-50% points premiums when downgrading picks. It’s ridiculous that teams (we have been the recent beneficiary) then get the extra 20% discount. I think the AFL has to either (i) scrap the discount entirely and say that it is effectively delivered via the dodgy “exchange rate” or (ii) commit to periodically updating the index to reflect the implied rates from previous years trades which only involvepicks.
 

Dogs Rule

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Could also be a deal for 23 with...

Cats 32 and 34 gives us an extra 311 points.

Eagles 29 and 35 gives us an extra 360 points.

Richmond 28 and 38 gives us an extra 327 points.

Sydney 31 and 39 gives us an extra 237 points.

Trust in Sammy. A deal can / will be done.
Remember when trades and the draft were simple?

'We'll swap this player for that player or that player for a draft pick'

Then on draft day or night you would get your selections and pick a bunch of new players and it was done. Simple and uncomplicated.

I'll be honest, the last three or four years of trades, free agents and drafts with the points and the downgrades and upgrades and weird complicated s*** that goes on has done my head in.
 
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Dogs Rule

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What's the evidence that it does lead to a problem? Do we lose clearances more than other teams? Are other teams somehow more efficient in scoring from clearance wins than the league average against us?
Just imagine if we had even a semi decent ruckman on the park for 22 games? We'll never know what difference it could make because it'll never happen (apologies to Martin, he won't be playing anywhere near 22 games. English is just OK a second ruck and jury is well and truly out on Sweet).
 

SweatOnMySkin

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I mean Grundy had 37 against Graham, Big O had 33. You can’t just completely write off Sweets game (31ho) because he was up against him, it was his debut game of AFL football after all and he only played 64% game time
you've missed the point that that one game swings his average hugely due top him playing such a small number of games. it would be largely irrelevant in a 22 game season, but the reaility is he's never made 20 hitouts against another ruck
 

Proffessor

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There are some major psychological impact considerations to list changes that a lot of posters seem to overlook when discussing bringing additional players in.
For every action there will be a reaction.

Hypothetically if we had done what so many posters have been calling for and some how miraculously traded in an A grade ruckman with plenty of gas left in the metaphorical tank without giving up a lot and not blowing the salary cap. What would be the likely impact on the existing rucks and the list in general of such an event?

Sweet would probably start desperately looking for the nearest exit to save his fledgling AFL career.
English would likely start planning to head back to WA asap, and in the meantime have to switch his focus to being mainly a key forward.
Martin, if he stayed on the list would likely just go through the motions waiting/hoping for injury opportunities before retirement at the end of the season if not earlier.

English's adjusted focus would then likely have detrimental implications for guys like Marra, Schache, Bruce (late in the season) and any other non-entrenched player trying to squeeze into or stay in our forward line.

So next year our existing Rucks would all likely be trying to leave and need to be replaced to assist the mid career person we hypothetically got in this trade period. Marra might also be looking for an early exit come seasons end.

To be worth risking such an outcome, this hypothetical player would want to be very bloody good and the sort of player you want to build around. Such players are very hard to find and don't tend to come cheap either.

The other more realistic option would have been to try to bring in a very short term mature player close to the end of his career, basically a like for like replacement for Stef Martin. However any player at that stage is a gamble fitness wise, plus they may not fit in well with the rest of the list.

Stef Martin is a known quantity, he obviously fitted in well with the playing group this year and still suits our needs.

In spite of all the protests, keeping our existing ruck division moving forward was a reasonable and relatively low risk list management strategy compared to any of the potential alternatives I saw being floated during the trade period.
 

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