Strategy Trade and List management Thread Part 4 (opposition supporters - READ posting rules before posting)

[Pugz89]

Looking a bit forward, which is a bit fraught at this time of year, currently we only have a 1st and 4th round pick (as it stands 17 and 72).

Pick 17 - 1025 points
Pick 72 - 19 points

We are going to need 2021 second and third round pick(s) to be able to do anything.

Potential F/S or NGA targets

• F/S: Sam Darcy, Ewan MacPherson, Billy Kolynuik. It seems the West twins aren't on the radar
• NGA: Cody Raak, Sam Chatfield, Siddharth Rajesh, Joshua Carlyle-Marks, Loris Bayly, Ethan Councillor, Kento Dobell, Blake Scott

Out of contract:

• Cavarra, Khamis, Weightman, Richards, Sweet, McNeil, Vandermeer, Jong UFA, Butler, Bontempelli, Wallis UFA, Lipinski, Garcia, R Smith, Gardner, Duryea, Liberatore UFA, Hayes, Cordy, Young, Martin, Scott

Priority areas of need:

• KPD
• Future ruckman (depending on how Martin goes it might an immediate need)
• Goal kicking small forward

Scenarios:
1. If Sam Darcy is indeed a top 20 pick (let's say he is for sake of argument). Then trade pick 17 to Geelong in exchange for pick 26 and 34. Turns 1025 points into into 729 + 542 = 1271 points. Darcy at pick 17 is 1025 at 20% discount = 820 points which is equivalent to pick 22.

2. Assume Adelaide re-signed McAsey to ensure they get maximum value for him and we are indeed interested in him. 2 second round picks are required to get it done - see Josh Schache, Jake Stringer, Marcus Adams. Trade pick 26 and 2022 second round to Adelaide for him.

3. Mitch Wallis signs at Gold Coast as an UFA. We get mid 3rd round compo, pick 47 at 316 points. Pick 34 and 47 = 858 points, enough to cover Darcy.

4. Trade McLean to Collingwood for pick 47 becomes pick 48 = 302 points because of Wallis compo. We have picks 34, 47, 48, 72 and McAsey traded in.

5. Alternative is that we trade Richards for a 2nd and 3rd round pick. Say pick 23 and 56 to the Hawks.


Other things to consider:
If we target a ready made A grade KPD (e.g. Darcy Moore), then we are going to be giving up a lot (the equivalent of 2 first rounders). This could be 2022 1st round, Richards or McLean and pick 26 (or a lower pick). However, we keep our 2022 second rounder. That might be unders / overs, but you get the point.

The point of all the above is that all is not lost with no 2nd or 3rd round pick, but we are definitely going to be losing some players in order to get what we need in the door.

In my opinion we should do what it takes to keep Dunkley. Bains said Essendung are coming again and maybe others, but we should not be weakening our greatest strength. However, if we are forced into, perhaps a straight swap for Darcy Moore.

No doubt Sam Power has a plan.

I'd burn VUWO down if we traded McLean for pick 47.

 

[Philthy1]

I'd burn VUWO down if we traded McLean for pick 47.

Coming off a knee reco and not a lot of playing time in 2020 before that his value is diminished in the market regardless of how much we value him.

 

[Pugz89]

Coming off a knee reco and not a lot of playing time in 2020 before that his value is diminished in the market regardless of how much we value him.

Then keep him. He is obviously more valuable to us than pick 47.

 

[Philthy1]

Then keep him. He is obviously more valuable to us than pick 47.

No problem with that, my original post was more illustrative than proscriptive. That is, we need to lose some players we would rather not if we could. Who those players are and what value we get is a Sam Power question.

 

[Pugz89]

No problem with that, my original post was more illustrative than proscriptive. That is, we need to lose some players we would rather not if we could. Who those players are and what value we get is a Sam Power question.

It is also a profit-loss thing. Which players can we 'profit' off and which would we 'lose' off and McLean is very much in the latter category.

JJ, Schache, Wallis would all be profits, or at least *not losses*. They should be top of the lost of tradeables.

 

[dergert]

So we are going to need to trade some fringe players to get trade/draft capital. Interesting times.

 

[dergert]

After the weekend, I think Lipinski would be trade worthy. Shame.

 

[Philthy1]

It is also a profit-loss thing. Which players can we 'profit' off and which would we 'lose' off and McLean is very much in the latter category.

JJ, Schache, Wallis would all be profits, or at least *not losses*. They should be top of the lost of tradeables.

Agree that McLean would be a loss. However, we ain't getting even a set of steak knives for Schache. JJ not much better at current form.

 

[Pugz89]

Agree that McLean would be a loss. However, we ain't getting even a set of steak knives for Schache. JJ not much better at current form.

Agree on Schache, except maybe from Pies.
JJ could get us a second rounder though, given the way the game has gone and half backs being so important.

 

[Philthy1]

Agree on Schache, except maybe from Pies.
JJ could get us a second rounder though, given the way the game has gone and half backs being so important.

We got pick 75 in exchange for Roughead from the Pies, so don't hold your breath on Schache.

JJs form would need to improve to get a second. More likely a 3rd rounder.

 

[CDBulldog]

Darcy Moore just had 5 kicks, 4 marks and 1 behind from 87% TOG. And this is against Gold Coast, whose ruck/KPD stocks are just about in crisis mode.

Last year, he was the All Australian CHB. It is beyond me why Collingwood insists on wasting the best defender in the competition up forward. He kicked 5 goals in a game (against us) back in 2015 at the age of 19, but since then has not kicked more than 3 in a game despite spending all of 2015 - 2017 as a forward.

The Pies have a dude who could be one of the best defenders of this generation, or could be an average key forward, and they opt for the latter. He should absolutely be exploring his options at the end of this year

And option 1 should be the dogs.

I’d cough up whatever it took to bring Darcy Moore over.



Hayes is also being played off half back

Agree. Throw the kitchen sink at him.
He would be PERFECT for us.

 

[Philthy1]

And option 1 should be the dogs.

Agree. Throw the kitchen sink at him.
He would be PERFECT for us.

Keath and Moore would be an ideal KPD combo.

 

[BrunswickDog]

Is lipinski the next coming of Gia?

Good skills, smooth mover, not super athletic, well liked and a good teamate, but when the pressure is on goes missing or isn't quite up to it.

Hard to fault the kid though after being out of the team and being brought back against the tiges, with pressure and atmosphere at finals like intensity in April.

I think all inclusions against the tiges were going to struggle this week, because the step up from vfl to afl was harder than normal, more like 2 to 3 steps.

 

[Northernsoul74]

Keath and Moore would be an ideal KPD combo.

Isn’t Moore reportedly on $800k plus?

 

[iambrilliant]

Wouldn’t mind having a look at Ambrose from Essendon.

 

[Philthy1]

Isn’t Moore reportedly on $800k plus?

Possibly, so we may need to re-negotiate the deal on a longer term at less money. However, with Bont signing on again shortly, we may not be able to do it at all. Hence McAsey might be plan A.

 

[ossie_21]

My plan for the trade period is to get a gun FB and solid 2nd/3rd defender - upgrades on both Gardner & Cordy, but still having them for depth

Takes the list spots of any of Hayes/Rmith/Jong

edit - I am not Sam Power

 

[ScragCity]

You wouldn't get a fourth rounder for JJ and Schache combined. Most teams would rather take a risk on a kid late in the draft who might become something.

 

[VogonProsthetnic]

Why does everyone want to give McLean away for steak knives?

Last Friday demonstrated clearly the importance of midfield depth- which is not as good as it seems. If we lose Dunkley we are going to need another competitive mid as there is no guarantee Treloar and Libba are going to last more than another 2-3 years.

I would use our 2021 first to draft the best kpd available. Hopefully we can also pick up a cheap state league kpd. We should be an attractive destination atm.

Let’s leave it to Collingwood to give away best 22 players for steak knives.

 

[Mattdougie]

I think all these pipe dream KPD are ridiculous.

More chance my missus bringing Margot Robbie home for me than us getting Moore.

so we have to look at options that we can get and with Gardner and Young developing the 3 I would chase are .

Suns - Collins, lone the way he plays

Freo - Hamling - straight swap for JJ

Geelong - Henderson - far from their worst player and a short gap filler.

These three are most likely gettable a d make us better

 

[Philthy1]

I think all these pipe dream KPD are ridiculous.

More chance my missus bringing Margot Robbie home for me than us getting Moore.

so we have to look at options that we can get and with Gardner and Young developing the 3 I would chase are .

Suns - Collins, lone the way he plays

Freo - Hamling - straight swap for JJ

Geelong - Henderson - far from their worst player and a short gap filler.

These three are most likely gettable a d make us better

What about getting Roughead back for a year or two?

 

[VogonProsthetnic]

I think all these pipe dream KPD are ridiculous.

More chance my missus bringing Margot Robbie home for me than us getting Moore.

so we have to look at options that we can get and with Gardner and Young developing the 3 I would chase are .

Suns - Collins, lone the way he plays

Freo - Hamling - straight swap for JJ

Geelong - Henderson - far from their worst player and a short gap filler.

These three are most likely gettable a d make us better

Apart from Collins, I reckon these guys are too old. There must be a few 19 or 20 year olds who missed being drafted flying under the radar.

 

[Mattdougie]

What about getting Roughead back for a year or two?

If I was chasing anyone at the Pies we could actually get it would be Howe. Suits our style more

 

[Mattdougie]

Apart from Collins, I reckon these guys are too old. There must be a few 19 or 20 year olds who missed being drafted flying under the radar.

We don’t need developing kids we need someone to step in and perform NOW.

Its our glaring weakness that will cost us a flag this year imo

 

[Virgin Dog]

If I was chasing anyone at the Pies we could actually get it would be Howe. Suits our style more

Calls Moore a pipe dream, reckons we could get Howe. Righto