Strategy Trade and List Management Thread Part 8 (opposition supporters - READ posting rules before posting)

[_Mike_]

Opposition supporters coming to troll , you have been warned

 

[Proffessor]

All this doom and gloom, can I remind everyone that our premiership backline comprised of a Geelong and Sydney rookie rejects and two rookies picks in Boyd and Morris. Saints got Wilkie, who we were prepared to pay over for as a rookie pick.

I like the look of both Selwood and Walker, and natural development in JOD, Buss doing his first full preseason.

Let’s not forget we didn’t lose to any bottom 10 teams, we in fact systematically smashed them, and our biggest loss was a paltry 22 points.

Selwood currently looks a little small for a KPD; Walker is tall enough but still very slight; Buss lacks a bit in size and in self-confidence plus has been in the system so long that it would be a surprise to see a major improvement jump.

In terms of 2026 prospects Buss looks the most advanced but he still needs a quantum leap in the off season. Hence the club's interest in getting a ready-made performer, with Buss as a backup option.

FWIW I think Buss needs to become really offensively minded and go for the ball in an Easton Wood style fashion, because he isn't strong enough defensively to make it without adding a strong rebounding aspect to his game.

 

[TMoney22]

If the AFL has a hand in making JUH and gold coast a thing, we should be biting their heels to work some magic and some sort of compensation come out way. Make it public like all the other clubs do and then get some bullshit FA compensation. Sick of everyone getting the most out of situations.

 

[doggiesin08]

Were North not also interested in Jordan Butts? Two clubs couldn’t even shake him loose

I totally get Adelaide wanting to keep him, but I don’t think he’ll be in the best 22 for most of the year and is a break glass in case of emergency player

Even if he only plays the same amount as this year he probably gets a Draper level contract offer given the lack of ready made KPDs and nets Crows a 2026 end of 1R pick.

As you say, it’s entirely reasonable of Adelaide to keep him unless they get that same value now. I hope we do the same with Buku.

 

[doggiesin08]

My understanding is that if Port matches, he can't move as a free agent. There are 3 options. 1) Butters signs with Port. 2) We trade for him. 3) He goes into the draft as an uncontracted player.

Under option (3) what would be his status 12 months later if he signed a 1-year deal through the draft? Has he become a delisted free agent and can go wherever he wants in 12 months? Does he have FA status but restrictions depend on if he’s in top 25% of paid players. Or is he just a vanilla OOC player like Smith last year - presumably this?

 

[threenewpadlocks]

No, it isn't.

He may decline quickly, he may not. No one can guarantee what the future holds. However May has been a pretty durable performer and the chances are reasonable that he will be able to maintain an appropriate level of performance for us if we get him.

And for the record, Jones didn't exactly drop off, we didn't give him the chance. We took a gamble on Buss and\or JOD replacing him adequately and they came up short at senior level at the business end of the season, not Jones. JOD had a decent season and earned his spot, but Buss was selected in front of Jones, in a strange decision that backfired.

I think you need a better response to me suggesting that a 34 year old will suffer to the aging curve that hits a lot of players at that age to be "no, he won't", especially as May has had a gradual but clear decline as a player in his 30s, with his Coaches Votes per season declining from 48 to 34 to 23 to 13 since 2022, combined with this AFL Player Ratings Points (not a good metric for key defenders but as good as any all-in one stat across an entire season, and at least it's a like for like comparison for the same player year to year) also declining from 10.98 to 10.84 to 9.71 to 8.62 over the same time. He's also missed games (see, age) due to injury over the last two years. His one-on-one loss percentage was 28% this year, not above 16% over the last three years. Although he still takes kick ins, it has declined from 77% four years to ago to 49% of kick ins when he's on the field (so even Melbourne see declining value in trying to get him to take most kick-ins, there's less need as he's becoming less good over it over time). Even his raw spoil and pressure act numbers were lower this year than any of the years before it. He did increase his intercept marks from 2.5 to 2.8 so I suppose you can hang your hat on that.

Jones did decline, for example, his intercept possessions declined from 7.4 to 4.4 per game for the 5 games he did play this year, his spoils also decreased from 6.7 to 5.0. He was failing to get to contests (of all shapes and sizes) and influence them when he did. This continued his decline of form that was gradual in 2024, his 1st half of the year was certainly better than the second half. And posters here know I'm not fan of Buss. But I also don't agree that he wasn't our third best key defender by the end of the season.

I can't believe I just typed out that much to prove that old key defenders are clearly worse as they get older. I get that any given old player could find something out of their body and not decline (or even get slightly better) as a player but we're taking a educated calculation that that is highly unlikely that we're much more likely to find a flier KPD type, one that isn't over 30.

 

[doggiesin08]

If the AFL has a hand in making JUH and gold coast a thing, we should be biting their heels to work some magic and some sort of compensation come out way. Make it public like all the other clubs do and then get some bullshit FA compensation. Sick of everyone getting the most out of situations.

If I’m Gold Coast I’m offering him:

• $600k next year;
• Automatic trigger for a 2nd year at $600k again based on some achievable conditions like 10 games / 20 goals
• Club option 3rd year at the same value;
• Dogs cover 50% of his current $900k salary, fully applied in 2026

You don’t even need to then workshop all the conditions under which you could sack him. If he acts up again you just don’t select him and you’re (1) only down a list spot and net $150k salary - new draftees after pick 50 get $120k so it’s really just the list spot +$30k on the alternative; (2) the trigger doesn’t hit and so you’re off the hook in 2027. If he does turn it around, you get your 3rd year at great value before he’s back on the market.

If JUH (and Connors) isn’t prepared to sign up to that structure with a credible pathway to $1.8m over 3-years, and would rather risk another year out of the game with us and the risk we legally escalate our right to terminate for cause, then he’s both in la-la-land and it signals to Gold Coast that he’s not serious about hitting those triggers.

Now to your magic compensation: we negotiate with Gold Coast on those parameters, but then go to the AFL and say we’re only doing it if we get $900k back in the 2025 salary (can bank / front-load others) and if JUH doesn’t hit his triggers then we want the $450k cap in 2026 back too, otherwise we’re just going to explore the same legally. Net position is whatever we get in a trade - with Gold Coast paying a price that it’s close to risk free for them - and $1.35m to $1.8m off the books across 2025/2026.

 

[House_of_Dahl]

If I’m Gold Coast I’m offering him:

• $600k next year;
• Automatic trigger for a 2nd year at $600k again based on some achievable conditions like 10 games / 20 goals
• Club option 3rd year at the same value;
• Dogs cover 50% of his current $900k salary, fully applied in 2026

You don’t even need to then workshop all the conditions under which you could sack him. If he acts up again you just don’t select him and you’re (1) only down a list spot and net $150k salary - new draftees after pick 50 get $120k so it’s really just the list spot +$30k on the alternative; (2) the trigger doesn’t hit and so you’re off the hook in 2027. If he does turn it around, you get your 3rd year at great value before he’s back on the market.

If JUH (and Connors) isn’t prepared to sign up to that structure with a credible pathway to $1.8m over 3-years, and would rather risk another year out of the game with us and the risk we legally escalate our right to terminate for cause, then he’s both in la-la-land and it signals to Gold Coast that he’s not serious about hitting those triggers.

Now to your magic compensation: we negotiate with Gold Coast on those parameters, but then go to the AFL and say we’re only doing it if we get $900k back in the 2025 salary (can bank / front-load others) and if JUH doesn’t hit his triggers then we want the $450k cap in 2026 back too, otherwise we’re just going to explore the same legally. Net position is whatever we get in a trade - with Gold Coast paying a price that it’s close to risk free for them - and $1.35m to $1.8m off the books across 2025/2026.

If I were them I'd only be offering $1M spread over two years, with us paying his remaining $800K if we want something back.

 

[Pencil case]

If we don't use the salary to get Butters then no point offloading Jamarra. Ffs be ruthless, tell him he's staying and can rock up to training or sit out another year..

He wants to stay

 

[Pencil case]

Buss lacks a bit in size and in self-confidence plus has been in the system so long that it would be a surprise to see a major improvement jump.

And the worst take on Bigfooty award goes to:

 

[The Inbetweener]

The issue with backing in Buss and JOD is that neither of them are number 1 defenders. JOD could be an ok number 2 (although this year had a really bad % of one on ones lost) and Buss played most of his juniors as an interceptor. So we’d be going into the season without a number 1 defender.

If we don’t bring anyone else I’m and also lose JUH I would hold Buku to his contract. Obviously not a number 1 defender either and a better forward, but we’ll likely end up using him.

 

[0utsider]

All this doom and gloom, can I remind everyone that our premiership backline comprised of a Geelong and Sydney rookie rejects and two rookies picks in Boyd and Morris. Saints got Wilkie, who we were prepared to pay over for as a rookie pick.

I like the look of both Selwood and Walker, and natural development in JOD, Buss doing his first full preseason.

Let’s not forget we didn’t lose to any bottom 10 teams, we in fact systematically smashed them, and our biggest loss was a paltry 22 points.

I haven’t watched much VFL but is Sellwood really a a KPD prospect at 186cm?

 

[PressredforEd]

My understanding is that if Port matches, he can't move as a free agent. There are 3 options. 1) Butters signs with Port. 2) We trade for him. 3) He goes into the draft as an uncontracted player.

Yeah understood but my point is Port can’t just say oh we’ll match you better trade with us. They have to commit to paying him say 1.7 over 8 years with a signed legally binding contract, before they can trade him

 

[Hobdog]

Most debates on here are about as effective as two drunk people trying to resolve an argument at midnight. The Buss debate is no different. Who knows how things turn out for him but one thing I will say is that we know talls take longer to develop and that’s when they’ve actually had a good injury run and some solid preseason training. We know Buss has had injury hurdles to overcome from the very beginning, has not been able to build a solid preseason training base and is still young. In terms of his pace, if I recall correctly, Bont came into the system without great pace and was a bit of a loper, yet he worked on it and definitely improved his pace and running. Now, am I saying Buss will make it? None of us know the answer to that, but surely we afford him the opportunity to squeeze the sponge as much as he can before we declare him a flop?

 

[Philthy1]

Most debates on here are about as effective as two drunk people trying to resolve an argument at midnight. The Buss debate is no different. Who knows how things turn out for him but one thing I will say is that we know talls take longer to develop and that’s when they’ve actually had a good injury run and some solid preseason training. We know Buss has had injury hurdles to overcome from the very beginning, has not been able to build a solid preseason training base and is still young. In terms of his pace, if I recall correctly, Bont came into the system without great pace and was a bit of a loper, yet he worked on it and definitely improved his pace and running. Now, am I saying Buss will make it? None of us know the answer to that, but surely we afford him the opportunity to squeeze the sponge as much as he can before we declare him a flop?

Just take what Michael Regan said on the Danny Boyd podcast at face value.

 

[Pencil case]

Most debates on here are about as effective as two drunk people trying to resolve an argument at midnight. The Buss debate is no different. Who knows how things turn out for him but one thing I will say is that we know talls take longer to develop and that’s when they’ve actually had a good injury run and some solid preseason training. We know Buss has had injury hurdles to overcome from the very beginning, has not been able to build a solid preseason training base and is still young. In terms of his pace, if I recall correctly, Bont came into the system without great pace and was a bit of a loper, yet he worked on it and definitely improved his pace and running. Now, am I saying Buss will make it? None of us know the answer to that, but surely we afford him the opportunity to squeeze the sponge as much as he can before we declare him a flop?

Buss has not played a bad game. He has not set the world on fire but he’s generally been very solid, including the game against Freo before he was subbed off for a small & speedy player, he was statistically our best defender.

He’s highly rated within the four walls and you can see why, once he gets his first full pre season under his belt with natural improvement & experience, he’s going to be significantly better than anyone we bring in at this point. Michael Regan said they expect tall players to take around 5 years before they’re ready, and that checks out if you look at key defender trajectories around the comp.

I find it genuinely laughable people writing him off already, he’ll be a ️. (Especially suggesting plodders like May, Frost or McGovern to come in and play in front of him)

 

[VitalDread]

Sun's now have pick 51 &69
I'm expecting those to be part of the Marra deal

 

[Hobdog]

Just take what Michael Regan said on the Danny Boyd podcast at face value.

Yeah Michael spoke really well overall and was particularly sanguine about Buss.

 

[Hobdog]

Buss has not played a bad game. He has not set the world on fire but he’s generally been very solid, including the game against Freo before he was subbed off for a small & speedy player, he was statistically our best defender.

He’s highly rated within the four walls and you can see why, once he gets his first full pre season under his belt with natural improvement & experience, he’s going to be significantly better than anyone we bring in at this point. Michael Regan said they expect tall players to take around 5 years before they’re ready, and that checks out if you look at key defender trajectories around the comp.

I find it genuinely laughable people writing him off already, he’ll be a ️. (Especially suggesting plodders like May, Frost or McGovern to come in and play in front of him)

Good points He is a victim of his high draft number and of AFL fan’s propensity for immediate satisfaction, unfortunately.

 

[Bulldog Brent]

Sun's now have pick 51 &69
I'm expecting those to be part of the Marra deal

If it’s 51 / 69 they had better be taking the entirety of his salary period.

 

[Proffessor]

I think you need a better response to me suggesting that a 34 year old will suffer to the aging curve that hits a lot of players at that age to be "no, he won't", especially as May has had a gradual but clear decline as a player in his 30s, with his Coaches Votes per season declining from 48 to 34 to 23 to 13 since 2022, combined with this AFL Player Ratings Points (not a good metric for key defenders but as good as any all-in one stat across an entire season, and at least it's a like for like comparison for the same player year to year) also declining from 10.98 to 10.84 to 9.71 to 8.62 over the same time. He's also missed games (see, age) due to injury over the last two years. His one-on-one loss percentage was 28% this year, not above 16% over the last three years. Although he still takes kick ins, it has declined from 77% four years to ago to 49% of kick ins when he's on the field (so even Melbourne see declining value in trying to get him to take most kick-ins, there's less need as he's becoming less good over it over time). Even his raw spoil and pressure act numbers were lower this year than any of the years before it. He did increase his intercept marks from 2.5 to 2.8 so I suppose you can hang your hat on that.

Jones did decline, for example, his intercept possessions declined from 7.4 to 4.4 per game for the 5 games he did play this year, his spoils also decreased from 6.7 to 5.0. He was failing to get to contests (of all shapes and sizes) and influence them when he did. This continued his decline of form that was gradual in 2024, his 1st half of the year was certainly better than the second half. And posters here know I'm not fan of Buss. But I also don't agree that he wasn't our third best key defender by the end of the season.

I can't believe I just typed out that much to prove that old key defenders are clearly worse as they get older. I get that any given old player could find something out of their body and not decline (or even get slightly better) as a player but we're taking a educated calculation that that is highly unlikely that we're much more likely to find a flier KPD type, one that isn't over 30.

You tried to intentionally misrepresent my argument and state that it was based on getting a 2025 version of May. Which it isn’t.

I pointed out this wasn’t true in the simplest way possible.

Now you proceed to suggest that I’m somehow claiming players don’t decline with age, which I haven’t.

Have you heard of the term ‘gaslighting’?

 

[Bulldogs85]

If it’s 51 / 69 they had better be taking the entirety of his salary period.

It was Reported a few times that the club won’t be paying a cent

 

[Mojorisin]

It was Reported a few times that the club won’t be paying a cent

Suns likely split it over 2 years but it needs to be ticked off by his management and the AFL.

 

[Bulldog Brent]

Suns likely split it over 2 years but it needs to be ticked off by his management and the AFL.

Effectively 50% reduction of his salary, fully paid for by the Suns?

 

[Foxman98]

You tried to intentionally misrepresent my argument and state that it was based on getting a 2025 version of May. Which it isn’t.

I pointed out this wasn’t true in the simplest way possible.

Now you proceed to suggest that I’m somehow claiming players don’t decline with age, which I haven’t.

Have you heard of the term ‘gaslighting’?

Steven May is cooked and can't bend down to pick up a ball,

His game was based on physicality which he has since lost

 

[Northern Dogs]

Sun's now have pick 51 &69
I'm expecting those to be part of the Marra deal

Plus Buderick i'd hope if we're paying most of salary.