Strategy Trade and List Management Thread Part 8 (opposition supporters - READ posting rules before posting)

[_Mike_]

Opposition supporters coming to troll , you have been warned

 

[Mojorisin]

If we are trading out our first i can't see it being for any other scenario then to move it to next year. The hardest part will be finding a buyer.

 

[iambrilliant]

I don’t think a player will ever get traded for four+ first rounders. It’s just way too much.

I get it happens in the nba, but that’s a totally different set of circumstances. 1/5 of your starting team compared to 1/18.

Just funny seeing all this talk from Cornes etc saying how certain clubs will be ruled out of the butters trade due to trade currency

 

[Lindsay_Gilbee]

Just funny seeing all this talk from Cornes etc saying how certain clubs will be ruled out of the butters trade due to trade currency

Cornes is the only person I’ve seen not have us in the picture. The bloke is just a bitter loser, can’t hide his hate for certain teams.

 

[stevieg1969]

Cornes is the only person I’ve seen not have us in the picture. The bloke is just a bitter loser, can’t hide his hate for certain teams.

His brother then went on to say he thinks Butters will leave and that he was a hardcore Doggies fan - which younger Cornes didn’t refute.

 

[Libbaaaa]

Just funny seeing all this talk from Cornes etc saying how certain clubs will be ruled out of the butters trade due to trade currency

They just deliberately ignore decades of evidence that shows a player will ultimately get to the club he nominates 99% of the time. Once he nominates Port's hands are tied.

 

[iambrilliant]

They just deliberately ignore decades of evidence that shows a player will ultimately get to the club he nominates 99% of the time. Once he nominates Port's hands are tied.

I feel a lot of it is clickbait aswell.

 

[JohnnySteel]

One thing in our favour. If port finishes outside of the 8. They may consider not matching if they’re getting a top pick in next years draft instead of a bunch of potentially late first rounders in the following drafts that will be even more compromised with Tassie.

Unlikely but still possible. What an absolute gift that would be…

 

[Distinctive_]

On Gettable - Callum Twomey said we'd be reluctant to trade our future first in anticipation we'd need it as trade assets for butters next year

 

[Libbaaaa]

One thing in our favour. If port finishes outside of the 8. They may consider not matching if they’re getting a top pick in next years draft instead of a bunch of potentially late first rounders in the following drafts that will be even more compromised with Tassie.

Unlikely but still possible. What an absolute gift that would be…

Would need Port to finish in the bottom 6 at a minimum to start considering the free agent compo for Butters, probably bottom 3.

 

[BigFloppa]

Players were instructed not to share any photos from Bont's wedding in which you could see Butters but this one slipped through

 

[Mantis Toboggan]

Players were instructed not to share any photos from Bont's wedding in which you could see Butters but this one slipped through

View attachment 2466704

If he wanted to be inconspicuous why on earth would he sit next to those giant arrows?

 

[Boyd oh Boyd]

If we are trading out our first i can't see it being for any other scenario then to move it to next year. The hardest part will be finding a buyer.

I can see us trading for a 2027 pick. There might be a club that views a pick in a weak draft worth more than a pick two years in the future. If our aim is to use it as part of the Butters package it's all the same to us.

 

[DueWest]

Would need Port to finish in the bottom 6 at a minimum to start considering the free agent compo for Butters, probably bottom 3.

If he nominates us it is all relative to where we finish vs where Port finish

Port finish 13th (bottom 6) and we finish sixth the only currency we have is pick 13 plus future firsts in heavily compromised 2027/8 drafts which may end up in 20s vs their compo pick for Butters of 7

Their compo Pick 7 might look the best option for them

If they finish 10th and us 9th then it is more likely they will match and ask for our first plus other picks

They also need the salary cap to be able to match, which they probably will have

 

[Dogs Rule]

I feel a lot of it is clickbait aswell.

Exactly. Kornholio doesn't mention us as a contender for Butters because he knows it'll p*** us off and p****** us off, equals more clicks which is what his whole schtick is all about. No substance, just outrage and clicks.

If Butters nominates us and the trade goes through to us, he will call in sick for his radio shifts that day.

 

[Mojorisin]

I can see us trading for a 2027 pick. There might be a club that views a pick in a weak draft worth more than a pick two years in the future. If our aim is to use it as part of the Butters package it's all the same to us.

It won't be all the same to Port though.

 

[Proffessor]

SdK didn't have the injury issues Buss had and was more physically developed and he still took a couple of years to get going.

Worrell played most of his draft year as an intercept defender, not a forward.

Maybe you'll get your wish and Busslinger won't kick on, but it's far too early to write him off. Most talls take time.

My wishes for Buss are actually the opposite. I would love him to kick on and do well.

My issue is with everyone posting that his development is tracking well. His current path is such that the odds are now against him and hence he would be best advised to work very hard this preseason and next season.

 

[Pencil case]

My issue is with everyone posting that his development is tracking well. His current path is such that the odds are now against him and hence he would be best advised to work very hard this preseason and next season.

This is simply just not true

 

[HK_Bulldog]

If we are trading out our first i can't see it being for any other scenario then to move it to next year. The hardest part will be finding a buyer.

We have some good NGA’s and Father son next year as well don’t we?

 

[Proffessor]

Robbie Tarrant, Alex Rance, Phil Davis, Nick Haynes, Darcy Moore, Ben McKay. All top 20 picks from 2007-2017 who started very slowly and become guns besides McKay who is still an afl level full back.

Do you want to list your lot of players now?

5 definite misses that weren’t even close.

The only one with an early record remotely comparable is Ben McKay who was drafted at pick 21, after spending a chunk of his draft year playing as a forward, and was definitely recognised as a long term prospect when drafted.

He is still playing although not exactly considered to be in the top echelon of key defenders. He is also someone who has copped more than his fair share of criticism even though he has carved out a serviceable career playing with teams at the bottom end of the ladder.

 

[ReservoirDog]

Anyone got inside info on how Weightman's rehab is going?

 

[Spiritof82]

Anyone got inside info on how Weightman's rehab is going?

Weightman's been down the club training just about everyday since September (apart from heading to the US for Bont's wedding).

 

[Mojorisin]

We have some good NGA’s and Father son next year as well don’t we?

We do. El Souki (small/half forward) the best of them Marial is a KPP who could climb draft boards next year, both NGA. We also have Cooney and West as F/S aswell.

 

[Claudonious]

At risk of making this a "shitfight",

I'm going to make this strictly about footy:

I went through 2025 stats so you can see them below:

Spoiler: Spoiler: click drop down to see English stat rankings

Among all rucks (ie the Champion Data definition of players whose players primary position was ruck) with 10+ games played, which is 23 total players English was:

Rank 9 in Player Ratings Points
Rank 9 in total coaches votes
Rank 4 in raw disposals average
Rank 2 in metres gained
Rank 5 in "threat rating" and rank 6 in "retention rating", a couple of stats comprised that can be seen on Wheelostats that relate to quality of kicking better than kicking efficiency
Rank 12 for contested possessions
Rank 1 for uncontested possessions
Rank 3 for intercept possessions
Rank 2 for total centre bounce clearances, rank 7 for centre clearance rate per centre clearance attended
Rank 8 for contested marks
Rank 1 for marks inside 50
Rank 23 (dead last) for one-on-one win percentage
Rank 1 for shots on goal - equal first with Luke Jackson who is classified as a ruck but obviously played far more in the forward line
Rank 14 for pressure acts
Rank 3 for free kicks differential (frees for one minus frees for against)
Rank 7 for ruck contest attendances % attended of the games they did play (I'm including this because obviously it's a physical position and if a player was able to rest or rotate, we should in theory expect their capability to be more physical in the ruck itself if they're doing it less often). Rank 5 for total ruck contests attended. Availability is ability and "ranking" is not so much the point here rather that he was part of a select group of only about 10 rucks who managed to keep themselves fit for the entire year while attending 75+% ruck contests, while 13+ other rucks didn't.
Rank 19 hitout win rate
Rank 8 proportions of hitouts that were to advantage
Rank 15 proportion of ruck contests attended that led to a hitout to advantage
Rank 15 Ruck Hard Ball Gets ("take it out of the ruck")

Opposition stats (though we can't calculate only the ruck contests that English attended specifically, he did attend the majority, lets look at team stats but keep in mind that this includes league wide 2nd rucks so it's a bit of a messy stats)

Of 18 ranks
Opponents hitout to hitout to advantage rate rank 5 (5 being good ie fewer hitouts than below average)
However, opponents win hitouts rank 15 of the time
Rank 13 hitout to advantage differential
Rank 17 team ruck hard ball get wins
Rank 11 for opposition ruck supercoach score above average (at 1.69 points per average it's basically zero). English himself is rank 5. Given that supercoach incorporates the opposition hitouts/hard ball gets, it means that opposition rucks get below their season average stats in non-ruck situations when comping up against English, which tracks with the fact that English is above average in this area - e.g. every contested mark that English takes is somewhat correlated to being in a contest with the opposition ruck, a mark that they fail to take etc. etc.)

None of this is mentioning English' holistic contribution to the stoppage, ie the Dogs being rank 1 score from stoppages differential team by a huge margin, 17.5 more points in scoring chains from stoppages than the opposition, a mile above the rank 2 team of Geelong of 9.9. We can have a philosophical debate about how much is contributed by English vs. could this have been even higher with a better ruck but I would argue that hitout stats and ruck hardball get stats etc. only matter in the context that it eventually leads to scores out of the stoppage, which English clearly has an overall participation in essentially three quarters of all the stoppages we had in the season that led to that differential.

In fairness I also get that these season average stats are always going to look good by virtue of the fact that we had the 3rd best percentage, even though we weren't the 3rd best team. So the stats are the sub-part of an overall stats totality that leads us to the various stats that also have us rank 2, rank 3, rank 4 or whatever. English janked up his stats running up the margin against non-finals teams in the same way that everyone in our team did, by definition. But anyway, just a disclaimer if someone wants to argue against this)

Yes, footy is not explained by stats but I think any reasonable person can look at what I provided above and think of the 23 or so 1st rucks in the league (understanding that 5 or so out of 23 at any given time are going to be injured or split duties, if 23 doesn't fit into 18 teams = 18 1st ruck positions).

Utilising the above rankings and glancing over them and eyeballing how important each stat is, I would suggest that English was about the 3rd-4th best in the league outside of the ruck contest (only Gawn, Cameron and half counting Luke Jackson as the players that were better), and perhaps about the 12th-13th best in the league in the ruck contests, which I think is fair to value each about 50% of a ruck's overall value, nets out to being about the 8th best ruck in the league out of 23 first rucks in 2025. Even if you think the ruck contest itself is more important than 50%, that might drop him out of the top 10 but still comfortably inside the top 15.

All of this is to say that this is comfortably inside the idea of being an established 1st ruck in the league among the competition's 1st rucks, even if you argue that he is in the bottom half of the 18/23 (however you define) established 1st rucks, at least he is good enough to be part of this group in the first place, ie, higher than the threshold of being "gifted" games.

If you are to argue that this is wrong and he is being "gifted" games, I would love to hear an argument why, other than the fact "I remember that he lost a head-to-head matchup with one game out of the 23 that he played on the season".

You argue previous seasons which I'm not going to do the whole stats gamut again other than to say that the spread of statistics rankings is similar year-to-year from 2020 to 2022 and last year, and 2023 was an outlier of a season where his type of strengths were similar but basically every stat was about 5 places higher in the rankings.

English is blonde,pale, has no tatts,has all of his teeth and is quietly spoken. Therefore he is a bit soft and the all Australian Jacket was not a reflection of his true value. Yes, he has some deficiencies, but most other clubs would take him in a heartbeat.

 

[weltschmerz]

Anyone got inside info on how Weightman's rehab is going?

He'll be back at training with the first through fourth years.

 

[JohnnySteel]

He'll be back at training with the first through fourth years.

Was that mid November?