Strategy Trade and List Management Thread Part 8 (opposition supporters - READ posting rules before posting)

[_Mike_]

Opposition supporters coming to troll , you have been warned

 

[Dannnnnnnnnn]

Now i'm more confused haha.

Certainly a lot harder to figure out than it used to be.

 

[Mojorisin]

Certainly a lot harder to figure out than it used to be.

It makes it harder when they don't publicly announce who is getting upgraded.

 

[BigFloppa]

I wonder if we can prise Butters by cashing in on Sellwood’s potential? Obviously we would need to throw in steak knives (McNeill?), but we need possess such an all-in approach.

Tbh I'd rather have Sellwood than Butters. I also think that having a player like Sellwood at the kennel will attract more talent.. Especially given that we will be competing against Geelong for Butter's signature, and they no longer have a Sel(l)wood.

 

[BrisDog]

Tbh I'd rather have Sellwood than Butters. I also think that having a player like Sellwood at the kennel will attract more talent.. Especially given that we will be competing against Geelong for Butter's signature, and they no longer have a Sel(l)wood.

Isn’t our Sellwood a relative of the cats Sellwood? He was a really good player.

 

[weltschmerz]

Isn’t our Sellwood a relative of the cats Sellwood? He was a really good player.

Different spelling.

 

[threenewpadlocks]

Don't think it's a "plan" specifically as opposed to have flexibility for any possible draft day trades, in general.

 

[Munnez]

This could also be an indication that we have confidence that we can trade our 1st rounder into next year for a Butters raid and the extra late pick this year still gives us our 3 picks for this year.

I don’t think we will trade out our 1st this year. If we do land Butters and give up 3x 1st's for him don’t think we would want too have 4 years were we don't bring in a 1st round pick. That starts to put you at Norf level of rebuild when you inevitably bottom out.
And we aren't big enough to cover that as a concept spending multiple years uncompetitive.

 

[Munnez]

Yeah if this guy wasn't a Darcy would anyone even be talking about drafting him?

No but after what happened with Sam have they been holding Will back to cut the price down. Or is it a reflection of where he really is at?

 

[glenashley]

No but after what happened with Sam have they been holding Will back to cut the price down. Or is it a reflection of where he really is at?

It's been mentioned by some ITK that he's been 'hidden' in school footy.

Probably don't want the same thing as what happened with Sam who was rated 2/3 rounder then flew up the boards after some dominant games.

It's also been noted that many don't think he has anywhere near Sam's ceiling but I'll take half of that and be pretty happy.

 

[grassman75]

Isn’t our Sellwood a relative of the cats Sellwood? He was a really good player.

He’s got an extra “l” so he shoulld be better

 

[BomToydd]

It's been mentioned by some ITK that he's been 'hidden' in school footy.

Probably don't want the same thing as what happened with Sam who was rated 2/3 rounder then flew up the boards after some dominant games.

It's also been noted that many don't think he has anywhere near Sam's ceiling but I'll take half of that and be pretty happy.

Think this is wishful thinking tbh. How many kids would willingly halt their own development and earning potential just to get to the club they want? Like don't higher draft picks get higher pay? If they're good enough the club will just pay the price.

Sam, Daicos and the Ashcrofts weren't hiding in school footy

 

[JohnnySteel]

Think this is wishful thinking tbh. How many kids would willingly halt their own development and earning potential just to get to the club they want? Like don't higher draft picks get higher pay? If they're good enough the club will just pay the price.

Sam, Daicos and the Ashcrofts weren't hiding in school footy

Feel like I’ve read somewhere that Luke has mentioned that Will was focusing on his schooling / school footy. So he really hasn’t had the exposure as other draftees.

 

[BomToydd]

Feel like I’ve read somewhere that Luke has mentioned that Will was focusing on his schooling so hasn’t played much higher level footy. Which would hinder development.

Fair enough. Focusing on schooling just makes me think he knows he doesn't have the ability of those playing at a higher level or isn't as driven as those who will be drafted before him

 

[JohnnySteel]

Fair enough. Focusing on schooling just makes me think he knows he doesn't have the ability of those playing at a higher level or isn't as driven as those who will be drafted before him

That may well have been Will’s decision or a directive but focusing on schooling; knowing he’d likely get drafted by us anyway if he did pursue an AFL career, which he has now decided to do, doesn’t mean he isn’t backing his ability in.

 

[BomToydd]

That may well have been Will’s decision or a directive but focusing on schooling; knowing he’d likely get drafted by us anyway if he did pursue an AFL career, which he has now decided to do, doesn’t mean he isn’t backing his ability in.

Feels like an excuse tbh. Like what's the benefit of hiding in school footy and hindering his own development? Will he feel like he belongs if he's drafted or feel like he's just there through nepotism?

The list management team would also be putting their jobs on the line gambling on such a speculative pick. Like imagine if the next Freijah is drafted just after him

 

[Guido]

Fair enough. Focusing on schooling just makes me think he knows he doesn't have the ability of those playing at a higher level or isn't as driven as those who will be drafted before him

Patrick Dangerfield - after being drafted interstate - stayed an extra year in Victoria to concentrate on his schooling.

 

[BomToydd]

Patrick Dangerfield - after being drafted interstate - stayed an extra year in Victoria to concentrate on his schooling.

View attachment 2472628

Dangerfield got drafted off his own ability though

 

[JohnnySteel]

Feels like an excuse tbh. Like what's the benefit of hiding in school footy and hindering his own development? Will he feel like he belongs if he's drafted or feel like he's just there through nepotism?

The list management team would also be putting their jobs on the line gambling on such a speculative pick. Like imagine if the next Freijah is drafted just after him

Luckily, like most talls who are drafted based off a few exciting but raw attributes, he is going to have a good 6+ years at least to show us if he is or isn’t up to it. These types get drafted based not on what they’ve produced but what they could become after being in an elite environment. Darcy won’t be the only speculative tall that will get drafted.

 

[Norm De Guerre]

I don't know if Will Darcy has been hidden or isn't worthy of the brief hype bubble that appeared around him. But his rise out of nowhere to the feature articles extolling his virtues, only to quickly return to obscurity. All in the space of a week or so is one of the odder football narratives of recent years.

But I get a sense that there was a fair amount journalistic fomo after not really predicting the first Darcy freight train becoming what it has. So they jumped aboard Will Darcy before it was justified. That fomo will probably see a bid on Will and is why we seem to be accumulating a lot of junk picks in anticipation of such an event happening.

We shall see.

 

[threenewpadlocks]

I agree but have been told it's still weighed up as spreading the coaches and developement staff across more players. I can't see how one more player who takes no other capital is that much of a strain though.

Sure, but there is a tipping point where at Cat B player is so unlikely to make it though that any use of resources is not worth it. You also have to pay the player as well.

It's the same logic that e.g. Collingwood had when they recruited Senegalese basketballer Bassirou Faye. "Cat B", "Not part of the salary cap", etc. The bloke ran around in suburban footy - not good enough to even play VFL - bashing opposing players, and was never the remotest chance to play AFL other than just "athletic". He probably shouldn't have been recruited given the chance of him playing AFL was so remote that the effort of having a development coach teach him how to handball or where to stand on the field was entirely wasted.

Melbourne thought the same with Austin Bradtke - son of one of Australia's greatest ever basketballers - who despite being a 205cm ruck only ever got more than 20 hitouts once in three years at VFL level, and was described as being completely lost on the field to win the ball otherwise - again, three years of wasted development by Melbourne.

People say "well look at Mason Cox" well yeah sure but he's the tallest player in league history. There's a big difference to being 211cm and "merely" 200cm or whatever. I have no doubt that Cox most likely would have played 0 AFL games, holding everything about his commitment and improvement constant - if he was "merely" 200-205cm.

 

[Mojorisin]

Sure, but there is a tipping point where at Cat B player is so unlikely to make it though that any use of resources is not worth it. You also have to pay the player as well.

It's the same logic that e.g. Collingwood had when they recruited Senegalese basketballer Bassirou Faye. "Cat B", "Not part of the salary cap", etc. The bloke ran around in suburban footy - not good enough to even play VFL - bashing opposing players, and was never the remotest chance to play AFL other than just "athletic". He probably shouldn't have been recruited given the chance of him playing AFL was so remote that the effort of having a development coach teach him how to handball or where to stand on the field was entirely wasted.

Melbourne thought the same with Austin Bradtke - son of one of Australia's greatest ever basketballers - who despite being a 205cm ruck only ever got more than 20 hitouts once in three years at VFL level, and was described as being completely lost on the field to win the ball otherwise - again, three years of wasted development by Melbourne.

People say "well look at Mason Cox" well yeah sure but he's the tallest player in league history. There's a big difference to being 211cm and "merely" 200cm or whatever. I have no doubt that Cox most likely would have played 0 AFL games, holding everything about his commitment and improvement constant - if he was "merely" 200-205cm.

I agree there needs to be a point where it isn't worth it but considering the fact the salary is off the books and it doesn't affect someone else's list spot the leeway given is alot higher then that of even a standard rookie. The risk in an American who has never touched a football before is alot higher to that of a father/son or kid who has grown up in the sport and spent years in our NGA. I'd be happy handing the opportunity to Hicks or Williams.

 

[ossie_21]

I don’t want to seem overly dramatic, but Will Darcy will be the greatest player to ever play the game

 

[weltschmerz]

Libba focused mostly on school in his draft year, didn’t he?

 

[goodcop badcop]

I agree there needs to be a point where it isn't worth it but considering the fact the salary is off the books and it doesn't affect someone else's list spot the leeway given is alot higher then that of even a standard rookie. The risk in an American who has never touched a football before is alot higher to that of a father/son or kid who has grown up in the sport and spent years in our NGA. I'd be happy handing the opportunity to Hicks or Williams.

It's still money that could be used elsewhere at the club and there's no point putting them on the list if we think they won't make it or are a very low chance of making it. Maybe that money will gives a chance to high another recruiter or extra scouts or help with our development programs for example. We also have a coach spending time on that player when they could be spending time on other player's to fast track their development.

I can understand the decision on both players. I know I'm 100% certain Williams will never make it in the AFL. He doesn't have any AFL traits, even reading his coaches comments they struggle to list any traits which tells me a fair bit also. They list leadership, character and willingness to improve. All good things to have which I'm sure will get him far in life if he keeps that up and I'm more then happy to keep him in our VFL program. I just see no reason to put him on an AFL list.

Hicks I can also understand why. He has a bit more talent and I'd be more willing to take a punt on him. But he's hardly played at the same time and we may need to see him improve on some of his weaknesses like endurance/work ethic before committing to him. Maybe comes into calculations next year like Raak did as a 19 year old.

 

[Dogs_r_barking]

Why do we not explore Irish talent?