List Mgmt. Trade/Draft/Targets Part II

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Maybe RFC get involved in GWS Hawks Patton trade?

RFC get pick 11, GWS get pick 40 or similar Hawks get picks 38 and 41 with another pick to balance it out

So we give up a heap of late picks for 11?

Yeah na that won't be happening


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Sep 24, 2017
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It’s freakin outrageous that that older guy from the WAFL got drafted in the mid year draft.

He was primed to go in the draft now.

Whatever happened to him? Didn’t even play in the home and away games? Whoever picked him up was just trying to pull a swiftly on the preseason draft so we couldn’t get him.

El bastardo’s


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Stitch

All Australian
Jul 30, 2013
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Not sure it has been mentioned, but Ollie Wines has asked if a trade could be facilitated to the blues. Is this something we could get in on?


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Mentioned it back when Blues were interviewing Voss. He's been wanting to leave Port for a while now.
 
Hawks need picks for father son

They would get better value for 11 than what you were suggesting and if their father son falls after 11 they will be laughing. Clubs don't trade top 10-15 picks for scraps. Hawks will be doing all they can to keep 11 and get later picks other ways. Especially with how cut throat they are I wouldn't be surprised to see a player or two let go for picks


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Feb 4, 2008
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feels like St Kilda are really trying to force success and wins by overpaying a heap of players to come to the club.

they want to keep the masses happy, not sure how it will pan out for them though.

Since the retirements of Riewoldt and Montagna the Saints seem to have suffered badly for lack of on field leadership. I suspect they are trying to let go some decent mature players who are not necessarily strong leadership wise(Steven and Bruce,) and bringing in players from clubs with strong cultures on their CV’s, Hill(Hawks) Hanneberry and Jones(Sydney) Butler(Richmond) Paddy Ryder is very experienced and has been at quite strong clubs and Dougal Howard seems to have some leadership credentials. There is also a good mix of athletic ability in all of those players they are trying to bring in.

If that is what they are doing in overpaying players based purely on their footy ability I quite like the strategy because the average casual observer under-rates on field leadership by far. If that isn’t the reason they are getting these players then maybe it is not a great strategy.
 

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JR82

Norm Smith Medallist
Nov 13, 2011
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hate them all
feels like St Kilda are really trying to force success and wins by overpaying a heap of players to come to the club.

they want to keep the masses happy, not sure how it will pan out for them though.
Prob the same as it did for us back in the times when we were doing that.
 
Nov 24, 2008
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I don't mind what saints are doing. Their depth is terrible. They'll see an immediate boost by adding 5 or 6 best 22 players next season. Their development of talent has also been poor and I reckon Ratts will help that. They had a shocking run of injuries last year to key players and were still in the hunt for a finals birth until a couple weeks to go.
 

Martin#4

Club Legend
Apr 27, 2011
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Overall the trade period has been dead boring let's be honest, from our point of view it is fantastic seeing how desperate the other Clubs are, i don't miss waiting to see which C grade player we'll get to be the messiah or "Doozy" as other Clubs are doing atm. Some rather average players have become Superstars over the last week or so it seems...

This is grand final week for middling, nothing clubs like St Kilda, Carlton and Fremantle.
 
Oct 3, 2009
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To be honest your opening paragraph is slack. To make the case properly you would need to go to the pick in question, say 38, and look at its history. Or maybe the history of the pick and a few picks either side of it to get a better sample. Then you can get the real picture of the historical value of that pick and whether it might be worth giving up for an upgrade from 19 to 13.

Let me get you started...

Last 15 pick 38’s:

Irving Mosquito
Jack Petrucelle
Sean Darcy
Harley Balic
Jack Hiscox
Dayle Garlett
Jackson Ramsay
Jordan Kelly
Mitch Hallahan
Sam Reid(Swans)
Matthew Broadbent
Myke Cook
James Hawkesly
Travis Tuck
Damian McCormack

There is no undisputed stars on that list but the last few show promise and Reid and Broadbent have had decent careers. Overall though you are probably about a 20-25% chance to get a hundred gamer and a 10% chance to get a 200 gamer judging by that list.

A better sample may be Richmond’s last say 10 picks between about 35 and 45 or first pick after that.

2018 Jack Ross
2017 Partrick Naish
2016 Jack Graham
2015 Oleg Markov
2014 Connor Menadue & Nathan Drummond
2013 Nathan Gordon
2012 Matthew Mcdonough
2011 Matt Arnott
2010 Brad Helbig

So latterly some very promising types but jury still out on all of them. Longer term we are probably running similar to the above sample, about 20-25% chance of a 100 gamer and 10% chance of one of those becoming a 200 gamer. No genuine stars as yet.

Unsure whether you accept that assessment. If you do, would you trade a pick with that sort of profile(1 in 4-5 chance of a 100 gamer, 1 in 10 chance for a 200 gamer, no bona fide stars produced as yet) from relevant samples, to move from pick 19 to 13 in an average year.....given that of the pool of 200+ gamers produced by those two picks, it is at least twice as likely for that player to come from pick 13 than it is to come from pick 19...?

Good work with the stats and analysis. :thumbsu:

This is the thing I dont get with players like Ellis, everyone saying 20 odd is way overs and 39 is about right. Ellis will provide 150 games of best 10-15 players on the list, help improve training standards and general off field prefessionalism and attitudes. GC would be absoltuely rapt to get someone like that with a high 30's pick, and the odds of doing so as you point out are probably around 15%. yet somehow this equates to fair value in the trading landscape. I honestly just dont get it sometimes.
 
Jun 18, 2007
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#VICBIAS

Rocco sifreddi

Norm Smith Medallist
Aug 13, 2017
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Hang on, I thought they all loved each other and were brothers in arms, with their coach being a happy, loving father figure who isn't a narcissist at all.
Thats what trelol said on 360 weeks ago how much he loved the club , brotherhood, blah blah blah , next minnit the club he dearly loves are trying to back door him to the suns🤣🤣🤣🤣
 

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