List Mgmt. Trade & Draft UltraThread- Warning, May Contain Speculation #combinethethreads

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amazingjoshy

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By 'better' do you mean a 50-100% increase?


His numbers for 2016 were the same as 2014-15. He was nothing special just your typical WAFL mid.

He had a massive breakout year in 2017 and got drafted (in the 2nd round mind you) accordingly.

Just don't like this revisionist history where suddenly every poster in claiming Kelly was an obvious get years before he was drafted. No he was not.
My point was he didn't look like a "plodder with poor skills", which is why I quoted your original post.

I happened to see lot of live WAFL in 16&17 which is why I mentioned those two years. If you watched him during those years he looked the exact opposite of your description. The jump in numbers and consistency is no doubt what got him drafted, but he was never a plodder and the poor skills things is a complete fallacy.
 

Max zero

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My point was he didn't look like a "plodder with poor skills", which is why I quoted your original post.

I happened to see lot of live WAFL in 16&17 which is why I mentioned those two years. If you watched him during those years he looked the exact opposite of your description. The jump in numbers and consistency is no doubt what got him drafted, but he was never a plodder and the poor skills things is a complete fallacy.
Well guys who job it is to decide these things obviously didn't see all that potential.

Do you think if he had maintained his 2016 level would he still would of been drafted?
 

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squashface

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No doubt we wanted a mid with the first pick and I melted for not taking Higgins (I thought he projected as a mid :rolleyes:) but whether we took Allen or Brander first was going to appear equally reachy. I think a few people expected us to take Allen and people were generally open to that as there was a silly assumption that he was going to be the BBIMWBLF

So whether we took Allen first or Brander, wouldn’t have made any real difference. I still don’t really get why we took two KPFs with our first two picks given we were never going to have the space to develop them (we still had Waterman to squeeze in somewhere and had traded in Vardy).

It’s hindsight 101 of course but if it’s all looking more and more likely that we will ultimately pay a lot for Kelly
I don’t think Brander with our first was that reachy, he was probably rated around that range at draft time. But I agree, I was annoyed that we took two KPP with our first 2 picks then and I still am now. It should have been a choice between Brander and Allen.
 

Keys

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Nobody, not even Geelong, foresaw or thought that Kelly would have the impact he’s had so far

He was taken with pick 24. Plenty of clubs passed him over before then including Geelong who took Lachlan Fogarty with pick 22. If any recruiter had an inkling he be this good he would have gone well before 24 and with hindsight in a revised draft he’d be top 5

I get why we took Brander and Allen when we did. If you want to do a revisionist take ponder why we selected Gorter in the 2016 rookie draft when Kelly was on our radar. Every club that isn’t Geelong will be looking at that rookie draft as well
 

Max zero

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did u read the post you just quoted at all?
I did.

You say he decent in 2016. A whole lot of people disagreed. Hence why he wasn't drafted for the 4th year in a row when he got the same numbers as the previous few years.

Now I am asking you if you think his 2017 was at the same level as 2016 would he still be drafted?

Because I reckon he wouldn't be.

Another 'good for WAFL level' dime a dozen player.
 

amazingjoshy

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I did.

You say he decent in 2016. A whole lot of people disagreed. Hence why he wasn't drafted for the 4th year in a row when he got the same numbers as the previous few years.

Now I am asking you if you think his 2017 was at the same level as 2016 would he still be drafted?

Because I reckon he wouldn't be.

Another 'good for WAFL level' dime a dozen player.
you realise you're arguing against something I've never said. My only claim was that he was never "a plodder with poor skills".... that's it.

In fact, in my post you quoted that you claim you've read I said "The jump in numbers and consistency is no doubt what got him drafted,"
 

Sloane4brownlow

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Why do I get the feeling this trade period is going to be unbearable.

I hope we go about our business and don't let the Kelly move hold up any other moves we have planned.

Cats will milk it till the final 10mins again if we don't be firm and stump up a good offer early.

I'm not overly confidence a deal can get done anymore. Particular when Kelly polls well in the Brownlow. Imagine the articles and the outcry of him returning to WA.

Our first rounder + future 1st won't be enough and probably rightly so too.

If he gets the coaches association player of the year and polls well in the Brownlow (or even wins the damn thing *shudders*) then Cats will probably start asking for 2x top 10 picks (ie an impossibility for us).

Maybe 1st rounder, future 1st + a player with Kelly + decent pick maybe early 2nd rnd this year.
 

Turboman1994

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From vague memories hunter clark, O’Brien and Stephenson where the midfield types linked all before our first pick. There was small rumblings on Higgins and reaching for Allen whom a lot where unhappy with the idea of Allen at 13.

I reckon as soon as brander was still on the table at 13 like wise with Allen at 21 it was an instantaneous selection
 

flamingEMBERS

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Why do I get the feeling this trade period is going to be unbearable.

I hope we go about our business and don't let the Kelly move hold up any other moves we have planned.

Cats will milk it till the final 10mins again if we don't be firm and stump up a good offer early.

I'm not overly confidence a deal can get done anymore. Particular when Kelly polls well in the Brownlow. Imagine the articles and the outcry of him returning to WA.

Our first rounder + future 1st won't be enough and probably rightly so too.

If he gets the coaches association player of the year and polls well in the Brownlow (or even wins the damn thing *shudders*) then Cats will probably start asking for 2x top 10 picks (ie an impossibility for us).

Maybe 1st rounder, future 1st + a player with Kelly + decent pick maybe early 2nd rnd this year.
Especially if WCE beat Geelong in a final
 

amazingjoshy

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From vague memories hunter clark, O’Brien and Stephenson where the midfield types linked all before our first pick. There was small rumblings on Higgins and reaching for Allen whom a lot where unhappy with the idea of Allen at 13.

I reckon as soon as brander was still on the table at 13 like wise with Allen at 21 it was an instantaneous selection
yep exactly. And as much as i like Kelly, its still not been proved to be the wrong call. If we're going to play the hindsight game we have to take in all factors....

Let's just imagine Brander was gone at 13...we most likely go Allen at 13. And then probably Kelly at 21. I reckon Cats would almost definitely have then pounced on Ryan with the pick they used for Kelly

So last year, we have no Ryan, and most likely no Sheed in the GF, if we have Kelly taking up a mid spot.

I wouldn't change how last year turned out for anything
 

Godfather32

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Nobody, not even Geelong, foresaw or thought that Kelly would have the impact he’s had so far

He was taken with pick 24. Plenty of clubs passed him over before then including Geelong who took Lachlan Fogarty with pick 22. If any recruiter had an inkling he be this good he would have gone well before 24 and with hindsight in a revised draft he’d be top 5

I get why we took Brander and Allen when we did. If you want to do a revisionist take ponder why we selected Gorter in the 2016 rookie draft when Kelly was on our radar. Every club that isn’t Geelong will be looking at that rookie draft as well
I don't think it's revisionist to say Gorter was a poor pick, he was a poor pick before, during and after the draft. I think the only defense of the pick at the time was that he was a sort of key defender who knew our wafl system so if our backup to the backup key defender went down he might possibly get a game if we didn't just slot one of our other backup bigs like McInnes in back there. Which isn't really a defense because if we'd have exhausted all our other options and Gorter actually got a game the season would have already been shot.
 

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Luder

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Why do I get the feeling this trade period is going to be unbearable.

I hope we go about our business and don't let the Kelly move hold up any other moves we have planned.

Cats will milk it till the final 10mins again if we don't be firm and stump up a good offer early.

I'm not overly confidence a deal can get done anymore. Particular when Kelly polls well in the Brownlow. Imagine the articles and the outcry of him returning to WA.

Our first rounder + future 1st won't be enough and probably rightly so too.

If he gets the coaches association player of the year and polls well in the Brownlow (or even wins the damn thing *shudders*) then Cats will probably start asking for 2x top 10 picks (ie an impossibility for us).

Maybe 1st rounder, future 1st + a player with Kelly + decent pick maybe early 2nd rnd this year.
God I hope a Kelly decision is made early, whether it be to stay or leave, so it doesn't overshadow everything else. Same with Coniglio
 

Max zero

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Why do I get the feeling this trade period is going to be unbearable.

I hope we go about our business and don't let the Kelly move hold up any other moves we have planned.

Cats will milk it till the final 10mins again if we don't be firm and stump up a good offer early.

I'm not overly confidence a deal can get done anymore. Particular when Kelly polls well in the Brownlow. Imagine the articles and the outcry of him returning to WA.

Our first rounder + future 1st won't be enough and probably rightly so too.

If he gets the coaches association player of the year and polls well in the Brownlow (or even wins the damn thing *shudders*) then Cats will probably start asking for 2x top 10 picks (ie an impossibility for us).

Maybe 1st rounder, future 1st + a player with Kelly + decent pick maybe early 2nd rnd this year.
Thats the thing though the value going up does not makes our trade resources go up. They can always lose him in the PSD for nothing and we keep our picks.
 

WCEforeverman

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you realise you're arguing against something I've never said. My only claim was that he was never "a plodder with poor skills".... that's it.

In fact, in my post you quoted that you claim you've read I said "The jump in numbers and consistency is no doubt what got him drafted,"
So do you think it was a work rate thing for him?

I don't know anything about him pre AFL, so I am genuinely interested.
 

Max zero

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I just remember seeing him in the VFL-WAFL mid season match in the wet and looking about 3 classes above
That's the issue isn't it? 1 good game then 3 average ones. We have players like that in our WAFL side currently.

After his debut season where he made some waves he was coasting for 3 years at the same output level.

Suddenly he puts all together in 2017 and elevates himself from run of the mill WAFL player to potential AFL player and he got drafted.
 

FKASC

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That's the issue isn't it? 1 good game then 3 average ones. We have players like that in our WAFL side currently.

After his debut season where he made some waves he was coasting for 3 years at the same output level.

Suddenly he puts all together in 2017 and elevates himself from run of the mill WAFL player to potential AFL player and he got drafted.
Yeah i don’t really know, that state game was the only game I saw him play until 2018.

Haven’t really followed him at Geelong except when I’ve watched them on TV. He always has an impact when he’s near the ball, much like NN, which is what has been so eye catching.

Does seem a bit overrated overall and if he hadn’t have requested a trade home I doubt there’d be half as much interest.
 

PremiershipTigers

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Apr 20, 2018
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It will end up being at their detriment IMO - especially if they don’t win it this year.
Guys pushing through looking for a payday they feel they deserve will have to accept lesser deals to stay. That opens the door for the other vic clubs to start poaching. Or the interstate clubs for players of their state, as freo did with conca.

If they win more flags than it’s all worth it though. A great balancing act, is list management!
Richmond has far more room than people would believe, and Conca was always going to leave. He wasn't getting a game with us by then end of the season and probably wouldn't have this season - even with all the injuries.
 

Obeanie1

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No doubt we wanted a mid with the first pick and I melted for not taking Higgins (I thought he projected as a mid :rolleyes:) but whether we took Allen or Brander first was going to appear equally reachy. I think a few people expected us to take Allen and people were generally open to that as there was a silly assumption that he was going to be the BBIMWBLF

So whether we took Allen first or Brander, wouldn’t have made any real difference. I still don’t really get why we took two KPFs with our first two picks given we were never going to have the space to develop them (we still had Waterman to squeeze in somewhere and had traded in Vardy).

It’s hindsight 101 of course but if it’s all looking more and more likely that we will ultimately pay a lot for Kelly
Maybe Brander will become the BBIMWBLF!

Similar height to Cripps but a more smooth mover. Menagola and Bontempelli size!
 

Coasters7

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Couldn't agree more. We could've had Kelly on our list in both 2018 and 2019 for far less than what we will have to pay him now. This is unfortunate for Kelly as well - could've been a 2 time premiership player at the end of 2019.
Do we win the 2018 flag if we pick up Kelly though? Butterfly affect and all that.. Sheed wouldn’t have played a game all year, Hutch most likely not in the side either while Gaff and Kelly are both in. Pretty happy with the way it’s turned out regardless.. and now we’ve got the opportunity to add a top 5 Brownlow medalist to a premiership side (and currently 2nd in the flag defence).
 
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