That's the crux of it really. His worth isn't in the top 10, but Brisbane will demand it despite knowing full well it's not his worth as is their right because we'd all hope Collingwood would do the same.
Then it becomes a case of how badly we want him. Say we have pick 7 (what we've had the previous two years) I'm not offering that for him and I'd take my chances in the draft. You then weigh up what's available at that pick and if he's the best KPF available then happy days take him, but if he's gone it also increases our odds of landing an U18 KPF.
Looking at it objectively at pick 7 you'd have Brisbane, GC, Sydney, North, St Kilda & Carlton selecting ahead of us with 3-4 KPF's in the mix at the pointy end of the draft (Brander, Hayes, Fogarty and Ballenden) plus Schache. Of those clubs only Sydney and Brisbane would be prioritising talls, IMO, with the others in reasonable shape with their spines so there's really a limited need for us to offer anything inside the top 10, IMO.
Despite it being a shit shute it's a numbers game and I'm not keen to see us giving our opposition a leg up because a top 5 pick almost guarantees them a second live pick before Ballenden is bid on...