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Nuwanda

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Knightmare does good very research, clearly understands football and is articulate. He is a favoured poster of mine around here.
His call on Lyons was a very good one, reflecting that knowledge.

His call on 'drastic decline' on Pendlebury and Sidebottom and possibly Beams is a poor choice of phrase in my opinion.
Pendlebury clearly had a better season in 2019 than 2018. He came second in the Copeland and made All Australian. He also sacrificed himself for the team in the roles that he played this season. It's simply erroneous to argue that he's in drastic decline.
I also think that one season is too early to make a call on a player. It wasn't until Pendlebury disclosed his back problems that people realised why his output had dropped off so much. I had expected that it was due to his hospitalisation last season that his finals performances were down.
As for statistics, Pendlebury had more kicks on average this season (14.4 per game) than any other season of the past 7 seasons (bar 2015).
When he's kicking the ball, he's usually damaging. It just doesn't hold that he is in drastic decline.
He had >27 disposals per game in 2019 and had not averaged over 30 disposals in any single season of football that he has played, so in 2019 he was within 10% of his average disposals per game of any season that he has played. It's not in any way justifiable to declare that he's in drastic decline.

Steele made All Australian last season and shared the Copeland. It was his single best season.
His output was down this season versus last and more work was probably put into him by other teams because of his success in 2018.
He did still average more disposals than his 2016 and 2013 seasons for instance. Again, it's hardly evidence of a drastic decline. But no doubt a weaker season than previous. Was there a contributing reason for this that we were unaware?

I don't see Knightmare admit to being wrong too often and when he does he typically laments second guessing himself and blaming others for talking him out of his original thought process. It takes maturity to admit when you are wrong. This 'drastic decline' call on Pendles is such a time in my opinion.

And Sidey was runner up in the Brownlow last year! Yes, he has regressed. He needed to win the Brownlow this year to prove otherwise.
 
Knighter is a stats man through and through - and in general that will flow through to most players as being a reliable guide.

Stats don't help with the intangibles however.

Where is the stat for lifting a team to victory?

What numbers indicate the consistent ability to inspire your team mates to herioics they shouldn't - by all known stats - be capable of?

There are none.

We need look no further than our past two premiership captains.

Tony Shaw and Nick Maxwell.

Both players scorned as 3rd raters by all the 'experts'.

Both players lived and breathed Collingwood and inspired their teams to the ultimate prize.

I respect Knighters peerless knowlege and thorough research but there are lies, damn lies and . . . statistics.
Im even more anti using stats to compare different players from different teams. Take intercept marks, a blokes numbers in this regard are as much about his placement in a particular teams structure. Change a guys team or role and his stats will skew in a different direction.
 

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Knighter is a stats man through and through - and in general that will flow through to most players as being a reliable guide.

Stats don't help with the intangibles however.

Where is the stat for lifting a team to victory?

What numbers indicate the consistent ability to inspire your team mates to herioics they shouldn't - by all known stats - be capable of?

There are none.

We need look no further than our past two premiership captains.

Tony Shaw and Nick Maxwell.

Both players scorned as 3rd raters by all the 'experts'.

Both players lived and breathed Collingwood and inspired their teams to the ultimate prize.

I respect Knighters peerless knowlege and thorough research but there are lies, damn lies and . . . statistics.

Great post jonbe54
Stats can be so confusing.
 
Sep 22, 2010
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I don’t really understand the friction to getting a guy like Walker in. Every year competition for KPP spots seem to fall to whoever we can get on the park. I’d also prefer Walker to Jenkins in terms of list needs.

Knightmare, how pleased would you be if we managed to get:

Gould - would probably need to trade next years 1st to get into the top 15
Riccardi
Lowson
Walker

I wouldn't trade up to get Gould. I like him, but I don't feel any urgency to get him.

Riccardi/Lowson/Walker I'd endorse. Riccardi/Lowson I'd like to get with the club's second and third picks. With the first pick, coming in the second round, I'd be interested to see what value can be had.

I’m still unconvinced. He has 14-16 votes each year for the past 6 years in the Brownlow (including 2017 where he missed the last 6 games). Always in AA (and 2019 AA) talk even if it’s fringe there are many top midfielders out there.
Apart from 2018, Sidebottom has always been a poor Brownlow vote getter. I think Sidey has been crucified for 1 average year (still with 25 disposals a game). He was runner up in the Brownlow last year! I’m unsure what we expect from Sidey. Isn’t he just a winger who has great stamina he goes all day just running up and down the wing?
Personally, I think Treloar is the weakest in that midfield. He has lost his explosiveness and is ineffective with his possessions. I’m not sure what his role is now and whether it’s ‘balanced’ with him in there. Maybe if Sier can get back into it it releases Treloar.

Again, I think the term ‘regressed significantly’ in one season is overly dramatic.

Prime Pendlebury in my view after Ablett was outright the second best midfielder. I no longer view Pendlebury as a top-15 mid in the comp.

Treloar I view as the club's number one mid, but not by much ahead of Pendlebury. He is losing some pace, hopefully he can get that back, but his kicking has never been great and that's what keeps him out of that top-10 conversation. I would have been fine with moving Treloar in a trade to secure Lukosius and I'd be looking at some kind of three way trade to do the same again next year if there is some third part looking for a high level mid to plug in, in the hope of contending.

Sidebottom was ineffective this year. 2018 he was elite, this year he was productive but looked like just another component and was far from a star.

My problem with Collingwood's midfield is there is no star first possession winner. That Cripps needs to be found and added. Even beyond that, I would have loved a Jack Martin added as someone who has the attributes to play the circa 2011 Dale Thomas game as that gut running, pressure specialist who can fly.
 

partypie

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Knightmare

If Callum Moore happened to become available would you look at him as a potential addition via DFA?

From what I remember he had top level speed and leaping ability in his combine tests and has developed his contested marking to a solid level, if what I saw in the VFL prelim where he took a number of strong contested grabs later in the game is any indication.
 
Sep 22, 2010
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Knighter is a stats man through and through - and in general that will flow through to most players as being a reliable guide.

Stats don't help with the intangibles however.

Where is the stat for lifting a team to victory?

What numbers indicate the consistent ability to inspire your team mates to herioics they shouldn't - by all known stats - be capable of?

There are none.

We need look no further than our past two premiership captains.

Tony Shaw and Nick Maxwell.

Both players scorned as 3rd raters by all the 'experts'.

Both players lived and breathed Collingwood and inspired their teams to the ultimate prize.

I respect Knighters peerless knowlege and thorough research but there are lies, damn lies and . . . statistics.

It sounds like you haven't read my piece on Gold Coast and why they've been a failure to date: https://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/id/27626778/the-struggling-suns-where-all-went-wrong-how-fix-it

Leadership is an essential ingredient no successful team can be created without. That's why for a long time I've always been consistent in saying that rebuilding isn't an effective strategy and clubs who get rid of veteran leadership and veterans who are still productive are going about things the wrong way, needing more of these players to help promote the growth and development of their players.

I can't say I'm old enough to have seen Tony Shaw beyond watching replays of a small few significant games he was involved in that I've come across footage of, but my view of Nick Maxwell is he is the best 'captain' Collingwood has had in my time and that his captaincy played a significant role in the development of the broader group, with the supplementary leaders and veterans were similarly of substantial value for the same reasons.

I'd also add of Maxwell's play. Even aside from his leadership more broadly. I valued him highly for his play on field. He is one of the best defenders Collingwood has had. Had his limitations. But his impact on winning was substantial, even beyond his on and off-field leadership.

This piece by Alex Witherden is essential reading for any who don't understand the value of veteran leadership and how much value it brings to team success: https://www.athletesvoice.com.au/alex-witherden-how-hodgey-changed-club/#rCeTxryQXG0U2Led.97

My view on leadership and it's correlation to winning is of such an extent that my view is if I was to re-do the 2001 draft. If I can have my choice of Ablett/Judd/Hodge, I'm taking Hodge because of the sheer leadership value he brings to the table and how much of an impact he has on the team around him, beyond simply what he individually did.
 
The elephant in the room for Moore going forward is that Forwards lead much more explosively than backs so if those hammies are at all suspect it is a poor decision.
Pretty sure defenders are not only required intercept, but close the gap on those explosive leads from forwards. Why do you think Reid doesn’t play defence anymore despite him playing career best footy in the position? The idea that forwards are more susceptible to injury because of their leading is a fallacy. If anything it’s far easier on their bodies as they can choose when to go instead of being led around.
 
Sep 22, 2010
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Knightmare

If Callum Moore happened to become available would you look at him as a potential addition via DFA?

From what I remember he had top level speed and leaping ability in his combine tests and has developed his contested marking to a solid level, if what I saw in the VFL prelim where he took a number of strong contested grabs later in the game is any indication.

I can't say I rate Callum Moore. He's 23 and is only average in the VFL. No more than 4 marks in any of his 9 games. 12 goals. It's not nearly enough for me to give him a second thought.
 
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Walker is appealing to me. Good age and flexibility to play either end.

For me, he is a depth player at best, but we don't have any depth for KPPs and he has proven on multiple occasions to be a capable AFL player. Could be a Jordan Roughead type selection for us.

I wouldn't have him best 22...But I really think we need one more depth KPP quite urgently. He looks the best of what is on offer.
 

jsdsgn

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Id love to get josh Walker. Absolute free hit. Potentially him and roughy down back, moore up forward and * Cox off.

Robertson I really rate as a tagger. Not as graceful or smart as someone like De Boer. He's more like Greenwood. Rough as guts and will smash into anyone and knock the s**t out of the bloke he's tagging.

Keays was meant to be good. Think he'll still be something, but pass for me.

Don't know much about Deluca.

Is there a way we can get jye Bolton back?
 
The elephant in the room for Moore going forward is that Forwards lead much more explosively than backs so if those hammies are at all suspect it is a poor decision.
The flip side is that forwards get to dictate when they go, whereas defenders need to suddenly react sometimes from a body position where they're off balance and putting their body under more strain. It'd be interesting to see which area of the ground statistically gets more soft tissue injuries.
 

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I can’t believe people still mention the Beams trade as a disaster ——without understanding the mechanics.

We would have had to use our first pick on Isaac Quaynor had we kept it meaning it would have gone to waste.

Effectively Beams really only cost us our first pick this year of which will most likely be almost pick 20 when it’s done.
Fremantle got pick 23 as compo for Mayne——let this sink in.

Beams’ Year was ruined with that hip injury.
At the end of 2020 we will know where we stand on the Beams deal but to say it’s failed without taking into account that we still ended up having essentially pick 11 in the same draft and pick 29...whilst adding a player who was coming off a brilliant season 2018—we’d do that deal again.
 

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How did you find pendles impact through the mid year? or vs teams who came after the team physically?


Whilst I think "drastic decline" is poor phrasing I don't agree that he had his best season in 7 years despite what the stats say. Overall a very good season but imo I didnt think he did enough to warrant AA and showed some "ageing" signs within parts of the season.
His impact in games was lesser than his younger days in many games through the year. He was also uncharacteristically fumbly in a few "hot" games which as we know is not like him, there was a flat patch in our run of losses which had people asking whether father time had caught up with him before he and subsequently the team came back into form. I think he had a purple patch end to the season and also started well which stuck in peoples minds.

I still think he has a lot to offer and is still one of our best, top 30 afl even, but he also at stages last season shown some signs of decline. Maybe KM is predicting more of those signs even if his overall performance is still of high quality due to age factor playing its role.
When the team loses, our better players are often down not surprisingly.
No, I don't think Pendlebury had his best season in the past 7 most likely.
I was arguing with the contention of 'drastic decline' and it being applied to all 3 players, Pendlebury most notably. I think it is premature to make that call.
All players form varies over time, mainly due to injury. Role changes also make a difference and I think that Pendlebury probably spent more time sacrificing his own game for the betterment of the team this season than he had previous.
People wrote Pendles off at the end of '18 and he responded with a very good season.
People are often quick to write players off. Doesn't make them correct.
 
How did you find pendles impact through the mid year? or vs teams who came after the team physically?


Whilst I think "drastic decline" is poor phrasing I don't agree that he had his best season in 7 years despite what the stats say. Overall a very good season but imo I didnt think he did enough to warrant AA and showed some "ageing" signs within parts of the season.
His impact in games was lesser then his younger days in many games through the year. He was also uncharacteristically fumbly in a few "hot" games which as we know is not like him, there was a flat patch in our run of losses which had people asking whether father time had caught up with him before he and subsequently the team came back into form. I think he had a purple patch end to the season and also started well which stuck in peoples minds.

I still think he has a lot to offer and is still one of our best, top 30 afl even, but he also at stages last season shown some signs of decline. Maybe KM is predicting more of those signs even if his overall performance is still of high quality due to age factor playing its role.
He's lost a yard and I think his thinking may have slowed down a tad, as the matrix magic tricks have become few and far between. This has made him more susceptible to taggers. But like Sidey, if you don't tag him, he will cut you to ribbons.

Running two taggers though should make a team really exploiable in terms of positioning, WCE would exploit it. I just don't think our coaching group work on it enough. They just back our blokes in to break tags that theyre ill equipped to break.
 

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Lyons absolutely had a terrific season, it's his third successive really strong season and some would argue his best yet.

Pendlebury remains better than Lyons. But unlike Lyons, Pendlebury is on the downside of his career. And when you're 31 and have played more than 300 games, that's how the story goes.

Expectations and analysis of a player is based on past performance. Are they improving? Declining? Staying about the same?

There is also the layer when talking about players to add to the list, what is the cost both in what you give up and what you pay.

Beams obviously was a ridiculous decision last year giving up x2 first round picks for someone of his age, with his poor durability and persistent ongoing mental health battles. Lyons as a contrast you look at in the context of he could have been had without giving up any assets to acquire. When they're similar standard players at this age/stage of their careers, and this is what I was saying last year, it should be a no brainer who is the better recruiting decision.

I'm not traditionally a fan of delisted players. If it's someone who can slot straight into a best 22. That's when I'm interested. And in recent years both in the forms of veterans and established players, there have been more cut than should be the case. Keays is a rare exception this year where I'm just liking his talent and feeling he has had a rough go of it for Brisbane with too few senior opportunities to get his chance to establish himself as the player he has the game and work ethic to become.

Sorry Knighter nothing Pendles did in 2019 suggested to me he is in decline except his well below average Prelim......he wasn’t Robinson Crusoe in that respect.
 
I can’t believe people still mention the Beams trade as a disaster ——without understanding the mechanics.

We would have had to use our first pick on Isaac Quaynor had we kept it meaning it would have gone to waste.

Effectively Beams really only cost us our first pick this year of which will most likely be almost pick 20 when it’s done.
Fremantle got pick 23 as compo for Mayne——let this sink in.

Beams’ Year was ruined with that hip injury.
At the end of 2020 we will know where we stand on the Beams deal but to say it’s failed without taking into account that we still ended up having essentially pick 11 in the same draft and pick 29...whilst adding a player who was coming off a brilliant season 2018—we’d do that deal again.
With the Quaynor part. Draft picks are heavily traded. Most of them dont end up at the club they began at. Many of them are traded more than once. Regardless of whether we were going to take it to the draft, we still owned it and sold it for half of Beams. It doesn't become less valuable just because we were in an advantageous position with Quaynor.
 

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I can’t believe people still mention the Beams trade as a disaster ——without understanding the mechanics.

We would have had to use our first pick on Isaac Quaynor had we kept it meaning it would have gone to waste.

Effectively Beams really only cost us our first pick this year of which will most likely be almost pick 20 when it’s done.
Fremantle got pick 23 as compo for Mayne——let this sink in.

Beams’ Year was ruined with that hip injury.
At the end of 2020 we will know where we stand on the Beams deal but to say it’s failed without taking into account that we still ended up having essentially pick 11 in the same draft and pick 29...whilst adding a player who was coming off a brilliant season 2018—we’d do that deal again.

Beams trade is a disaster......the hip surgery is irrelevant.

In the words of Dave........more to follow.
 
When the team loses, our better players are often down not surprisingly.
No, I don't think Pendlebury had his best season in the past 7 most likely.
I was arguing with the contention of 'drastic decline' and it being applied to all 3 players, Pendlebury most notably. I think it is premature to make that call.
All players form varies over time, mainly due to injury. Role changes also make a difference and I think that Pendlebury probably spent more time sacrificing his own game for the betterment of the team this season than he had previous.
People wrote Pendles off at the end of '18 and he responded with a very good season.
People are often quick to write players off. Doesn't make them correct.
Yep. A 28 year old dips below his previous year and he's said to be in decline. A 24 year old dips below his previous year and he's just in a temporary form slump.
 
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Sorry Knighter nothing Pendles did in 2019 suggested to me he is in decline except his well below average Prelim......he wasn’t Robinson Crusoe in that respect.

The relative drop-off from Pendlebury this year has been in his work at stoppages. He's no longer the same first possession winner he once was. He has been gradually regressing for a few years now. Not the fall off a cliff we saw from Sidebottom this year, or Beams early in the season. But he's not the player he was in 2011. Still Pendlebury is a consistent mid and still one of the Pies best 5 players. Has improved as a captain in recent years. So he's still of great value and someone the club should want around for as many years as possible. But on individual play, he is no longer a best 15 in the game mid, and since 2013 has slowly slid down that conversation, though still being around that 20 point as a 300+ gamer only speaks to his great consistency, durability and the continued quality of his play.
 

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I had to re-check the AfL final positions to the ladder and season.

Beyond stunned we even won a game.

Nothing we do seems remotely good.
No good players.
Terrible drafting and trading.

Oh well, just will front up next season hoping we win that elusive one game of football.
 
The relative drop-off from Pendlebury this year has been in his work at stoppages. He's no longer the same first possession winner he once was. He has been gradually regressing for a few years now. Not the fall off a cliff we saw from Sidebottom this year, or Beams early in the season. But he's not the player he was in 2011. Still Pendlebury is a consistent mid and still one of the Pies best 5 players. Has improved as a captain in recent years. So he's still of great value and someone the club should want around for as many years as possible. But on individual play, he is no longer a best 15 in the game mid, and since 2013 has slowly slid down that conversation, though still being around that 20 point as a 300+ gamer only speaks to his great consistency, durability and the continued quality of his play.
I'm curious about the call that he's improved as a captain. I really struggle to understand how any of us outsiders really have any idea about a player's leadership. Do we base it on the old fashioned Wayne Carey puffed chest great leader theory or the modern lots of pointing and directing great leader theory or is there another way we can see it?
 

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The relative drop-off from Pendlebury this year has been in his work at stoppages. He's no longer the same first possession winner he once was. He has been gradually regressing for a few years now. Not the fall off a cliff we saw from Sidebottom this year, or Beams early in the season. But he's not the player he was in 2011. Still Pendlebury is a consistent mid and still one of the Pies best 5 players. Has improved as a captain in recent years. So he's still of great value and someone the club should want around for as many years as possible. But on individual play, he is no longer a best 15 in the game mid, and since 2013 has slowly slid down that conversation, though still being around that 20 point as a 300+ gamer only speaks to his great consistency, durability and the continued quality of his play.

The reason IMO he isn’t the first possession player is all on our coaching panel.

I think they tried to make him neutralize the oppositions best on baller a priority this year and I don’t think that it worked often enough.

Don’t get me started on Steele in 2019........I already killed Bambi once not many here took it well.
 
The reason IMO he isn’t the first possession player is all on our coaching panel.

I think they tried to make him neutralize the oppositions best on baller a priority this year and I don’t think that it worked often enough.

Don’t get me started on Steele in 2019........I already killed Bambi once not many here took it well.

So the Club think he is not the Player he was Once so using him as a Tagger/Run With Player then?
 
I had to re-check the AfL final positions to the ladder and season.

Beyond stunned we even won a game.

Nothing we do seems remotely good.
No good players.
Terrible drafting and trading.

Oh well, just will front up next season hoping we win that elusive one game of football.
We really ****ed it by picking JDG over Wright. There'd be no salary cap crisis if our recruiters werw sensible and targeted mediocrity.
 
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