List Mgmt. Trade & Free Agency talk Pt 3

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Rioli2Rioli

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More just about the strong draft hand that we have this year, they showed Duursma in the article because it’s a similar situation to the draft that landed port Duurs, Roze and Butters saying we could do similar with a group of young guns impacting together
Also used Essendons draft haul from last year as an example
Yes. It's a real opportunity to establish a long-term dynasty with elite new draft choices, not decline like the Hawks did with lousy stop-gap readymades.
Would like to see a key defender, forward and two future mids this year, the core of the team.
We need to develop a key defender to augment Balta in future.
100% correct
We have a great hand at the draft and their appears to be the types of players available at our selections that we are looking for
KPP. Starting to look similar in that range to 2017 where Balta Allen Taylor Cj were all available from 18-30

Just load up on picks
We have 2 already and could possibly acquire the doggies pick with our later picks having good points attached and if CJ leaves that could be 4 picks inside 20 and the nucleus of the next premiership group.

GO TO THE DRAFT TIGGIES
 

Sir_Loin

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The other thing mentioned in that q&a that piqued my interest was that there was ill feeling from Jeremy Cameron towards the Cats over his latest injury, how it all went down and was handled in the aftermath. Poster claimed a source within the cats they were close to said Cameron was even considering if there was a way to break his contract. Interestingly, Morris responded by saying he'd heard similar.

Sadly it hasn't looked like becoming a distraction and derailing the Cats season... Yet!

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would seem a slight overreaction by Cameron on a hammy. If he is thinking of getting out of dodge (sounds like BS to me) there would have to be more to it than that.

Maybe Rohan’s snake has escaped the cage again
 

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Dr Tigris

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We've got six picks in the first three rounds and a few guys with the premiership tag who will attract interest (e.g. George). Then something has to be done with the Cholster and CCJ; we can probably trade one of them for overs. It's a really good hand to be holding so I don't wanna waste it on drafting in midfielders with question marks. That's a Frawley-era mistake.

Dynasties are built on nailing the draft so that's the strategy I want to use this year.

We may end up with too many picks if we trade away some premiership players, so if that happens either trade up our picks for better ones, or accumulate future picks and repeat the process next year.

If there's established players to be had, get them as free agents, not by trading away first round picks.
Only issue is if we can get some 20 - 21 year olds talented players. They are close to a new draftee in age, but proven in capability. Smooths out the transition from our older guys to a new squad. I reckon if we can get Green for a first then take it and run. Cerra is in there somewhere too. Although I place Green higher than Cerra.

See how we can go this off season. Get it right and we're neck deep into a another period as contenders.
 

RJK Tiger

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1.Naughton
2.Brayshaw
3.Allen
4.Kelly
5.Balta
6.Taylor
7.Bailey
8.LDU
9.Fritsch
10.McCartin

Next 10 in any order

Raynor , Cerra , Stephenson ,Ryan , De Koning ,Starcevich , Higgins , Clarke , Coffield , Powell
To put that list into context though - a re-draft always looks very different as sleepers rise up.

If you were to do this list to only include players who actually were drafted "top 10", based on your own analysis it would be

1.Naughton
2.Braysaw
3. LDU
4. Raynor
5. Cerra
6. Stephenson

So Cerra basically holds his spot at 5.

Even when drafting from a top 10 position, the success rate of those players actually being in the top 10 of a re-draft is 30%. For Cerra to be taken 5 and finish 12 on your list (which i still think is probably a bit low, I would have had him around 8-10 i think, finishing exactly behind the real #1 pick, who is definitely not considered a bust in anyones reports) - it shows he was worth a pick 5. You rarely get it "smack on" but if you can get to getting the best player at your draft pick - you are doing amazingly well.

Any club if offered a chance to insure their top 5 pick to ensure they get a player that ends up being a top 15 player in the draft would take it, just to ensure they don't end up with Aaron Fiora, Richard Tambling etc. The main point is that if you are trading for a bloke who was taken with pick 5 and 4 years later he is still considered to be a top 10 or 15 talent from that draft - you are getting a very good player. Even first round picks only end up being 50/50 to be worth their selection. If you can guarantee yourself a top 10-15 talent in that draft by using pick 12 & 27 to obtain it - most clubs would probably take that in an instant. If we can possibly get another pick back around 35-40 too - its a no brainer for me..... unless there is still someone available we really really believe in

Add to that he is 22 & has 70 games of experience already, a luxury we have not been able to afford our own young talent - that makes him incredibly valuable a prospect to us. Far more valuable to us than Freo or even Carlton etc.

For a comparison, of the players we still have on our list since from the same 2017 NAB draft & beyond - below is the games count.....

CCJ - 6 games
Balta - 44 games
Naish - 9 games
Miller - 0 Games
RCD -8 games
Ross - 20 games (not including his unused or barely used sub games)
Dow - 4 games
Ralph-Smith - 4 games
Cumberland - 0 games
Martyn - 1 game
Bigoa - nil
Ryan - 1 game
MRJ - nil

TOTAL 12 players for 97 games combined

The saying "you cannot buy experience" rings true reading this - for us to add a bloke who is in this age group & almost had more AFL senior time than our all our drafted players over the last 4 years combined is completely invaluable to our situation i believe. To get it, you might have to overpay. Essentially, this is the same theory to why we all spend thousands of dollars a year on "insurance" and more often than not get zero return from the investment - its "safe"
 
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Pomsta

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Not sure how many list spots we will have at the end of year but I would be looking at the dfaft again unless something special comes up.
Trade CCJ to Gold Coast for swap of 1sts and next years 2nd.
Trade our 2 2nd rounders and later 3rd rounder to the Doggies for 17 and next years 2nd.
Take 3 1st rounders, including #5 to the draft along with 3rd rounder for someone who drops. Have an extra 2 2nd rounders next year when we should have a couple more players retiring.
 

Rioli2Rioli

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Not really and why would you only select from the top 10 selected as that doesnt truly indicate where he is placed in his draft year

I would base my top 10 as in who i would take in my team if all these players were available to select in order now
Cerra is not getting picked by me in the top 10 no chance. I dont worry about stats
Sam Taylor , Noah Balta , Aaron Naughton , Oscar Allen , McCartin are all KPP that get extra points and i would select every single 1 of them prior to Cerra 100%

The only thing i keep hearing about Cerra is his elite kicking !!
He is a good kick but still goes at 70% De with a 50/50 split in kicking/handball (where you would think most hand balls hit targets)

I would take LDU / Rayner / Brayshaw / Bailey all before Cerra and Kelly/Ryan/Fritsch miss out due to mature age
 

RJK Tiger

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Not really and why would you only select from the top 10 selected as that doesnt truly indicate where he is placed in his draft year

I would base my top 10 as in who i would take in my team if all these players were available to select in order now
Cerra is not getting picked by me in the top 10 no chance. I dont worry about stats
Sam Taylor , Noah Balta , Aaron Naughton , Oscar Allen , McCartin are all KPP that get extra points and i would select every single 1 of them prior to Cerra 100%

The only thing i keep hearing about Cerra is his elite kicking !!
He is a good kick but still goes at 70% De with a 50/50 split in kicking/handball (where you would think most hand balls hit targets)

I would take LDU / Rayner / Brayshaw / Bailey all before Cerra and Kelly/Ryan/Fritsch miss out due to mature age

Because you cannot retrospectively go back and critique selections that were unforseen

Cerra was projected as a top 10 pick. He went 5. Based on the other players that were expected to go top 10 in that draft, he turned out being the 5th best of that lot. Thats a good use of a high end pick, literally nailed the pick to us fullest value. You would expect the return on that pick being traded to, at least, be equal to that value.

If we have pick 12 and take a player who is expected to go between pick 10 -15 & he turns out to be the 15th best player of that draft - but half the players that went in front of him were projected and went with picks 25 and after - it doesn't mean we got the pick wrong.

For every Cerra taken at 5, you get an Aaron Fiora, Graham Polak, Lachie Hansenm Farren Ray. In generally only 3 out of 5 top 5 picks end up being a good selection. If you got Cerra at 12 & 27 and got a pick back at 35, I would probably do it, UNLESS the club has their eye on someone at 12 they really really rate
 

Keilor Tiger

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Not sure how many list spots we will have at the end of year but I would be looking at the dfaft again unless something special comes up.
Trade CCJ to Gold Coast for swap of 1sts and next years 2nd.
Trade our 2 2nd rounders and later 3rd rounder to the Doggies for 17 and next years 2nd.
Take 3 1st rounders, including #5 to the draft along with 3rd rounder for someone who drops. Have an extra 2 2nd rounders next year when we should have a couple more players retiring.
Thats not bad for you Pomsta. Clearly a bit too much time on your hands. If we take 3 players in the top 20 and add a FA (25-27 yo inside mid - Dunstan would be good or his mate Dumont), this should set us up for our next serious crack at it.
 

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Have you lost the plot? Vlaustin is x10 the player Broad is or ever will be.
Depends on the situation, Vlossy is our best intercept player but in terms of just purely defending standpoint I would take Broad
Over the past two years his really improved on setting up counter attacks and become a extremely well rounded player
 

Chunky09

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From watching Ben Miller in the VFL this year I actually think he can be better than Astbury (his foot skills on the run are sublime) just wish he would stop getting soft tissue injury every time his AFL opportunity rolls around. Should he get the nod this week and we roll Short up onto the wing to replace McIntosh?
Don’t see any hurt in playing him right now, we’ve got to see which of these guys is worth preserving with, surprisingly Garth was actually pretty decent last week
 

Chunky09

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It's bemusing some people on here still want to replace Broad.

The guy is a proven vital cog in 3 time premiership winning backline.

No Jake Kelly is not an upgrade over Broad. The replacements we need to start looking for are guys like Astbury who is 30+, slowing down and continues to get injured. Broad has a bit more time left given he turned 28 a few months ago.
Love to see where he is in the band pre injury, I honestly reckon he could be top 5
 

Chunky09

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Chol is a free agent, and despite interest from other clubs, I doubt the sort of contract he'd be getting would net us anything of value. He's also the more versatile of the two, so I reckon sign up Chol, and try to get a pick around 15 to 25 for CJ.

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I’ve had my doubts on Chol as most of us have.
But when he plays with all of jack, lynch and most importantly nank he becomes a weapon.
Opposition is forced to man 3 bigs and Chol can move and is one of the best set shot kicks in the league.
I’ll be happy as long as we keep one of Chol/ccj, Chol may like you say be the more versatile option and suit us better
 

Damo80

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Don’t see any hurt in playing him right now, we’ve got to see which of these guys is worth preserving with, surprisingly Garth was actually pretty decent last week
I'd imagine and expect that until it's mathematically impossible for us to make the 8, we would play what is thought to be the strongest 22 with the best chance of winning every game. I'm all for rewarding VFL form, but I'm not sure bringing Miller in improves our chances of winning, as much as it would be great for the development of he and the team for the future.

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Rioli2Rioli

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Because you cannot retrospectively go back and critique selections that were unforseen

Cerra was projected as a top 10 pick. He went 5. Based on the other players that were expected to go top 10 in that draft, he turned out being the 5th best of that lot. Thats a good use of a high end pick, literally nailed the pick to us fullest value. You would expect the return on that pick being traded to, at least, be equal to that value.

If we have pick 12 and take a player who is expected to go between pick 10 -15 & he turns out to be the 15th best player of that draft - but half the players that went in front of him were projected and went with picks 25 and after - it doesn't mean we got the pick wrong.

For every Cerra taken at 5, you get an Aaron Fiora, Graham Polak, Lachie Hansenm Farren Ray. In generally only 3 out of 5 top 5 picks end up being a good selection. If you got Cerra at 12 & 27 and got a pick back at 35, I would probably do it, UNLESS the club has their eye on someone at 12 they really really rate
Think we are on 2 different wave lengths here

Im not criticizing fremantle for taking Cerra at pick #5 as based on his junior football he was expected to go that range
What i am saying is that he is no longer the 5th best player from his draft and his know quality at AFL level and is no longer at that value and we should not pay anywhere near that value for him.

Cerra has proven he is AFL quality but a player with not a great deal of hurt factor and more outside than a inside midfielder
Freo supporters like to talk up his elite kicking traits but when a player with these qualities is only kicking 13 goals 25 behinds in 4 years and with 50/50 split between his kicking handballing and running at 70% thats not screaming elite to me.

Inside mids like Cotchin and Neal do go at less but their games is mainly in traffic in close. Cerra is not

He is not a Prestia and we coughed up pick #7 with later pick swaps bringing that to pick #11
I would say Geelongs pick we hold is about his true value 'IF we trade for him which i am hoping we dont and he stays at Freo or selects Carlton)
 

Chunky09

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The other thing mentioned in that q&a that piqued my interest was that there was ill feeling from Jeremy Cameron towards the Cats over his latest injury, how it all went down and was handled in the aftermath. Poster claimed a source within the cats they were close to said Cameron was even considering if there was a way to break his contract. Interestingly, Morris responded by saying he'd heard similar.

Sadly it hasn't looked like becoming a distraction and derailing the Cats season... Yet!

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Put it on the main board and get that rumour rolling son
 
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