List Mgmt. Trade & Free Agency talk Pt 6

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Nov 23, 2015
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Because Essendon don't get a band 1 compo pick if he was only getting $750k in guaranteed money on his original deal. AFL media has as much idea about a players actual wage as you and I have. They guess as much as we do.

However if you look at the table I posted, which breaks down all the players contracts for the 2021 season, to be among the top 15 players, he'd need to be earning at least $800k. It's that simple.
Your table is 2021
The table you need to use is 2020

There is no way the AFL can determine what the players will earn 1 year before they earn it and there are too many variables with players salaries and bonuses - But you keep using this as your argument

I have not seen any where where it states the player must be in the top 5 % of earners in their 1st year and that would be impossible to determine 1 year out specially with all the tricks and bonuses in players contracts as well as clubs deciding to front load contracts along the way.

Only way to determine is with facts they have from the year the contract is signed
If it falls into the 5% bracket then the compo is provided in november to be used or traded in the draft

Impossible to determine 12 months ahead where that would fall
Unless you find something that says that the player must be in the top 5% earners in the first year of his contract
I will still hold my position
 

Sphynx

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Your table is 2021
The table you need to use is 2020

There is no way the AFL can determine what the players will earn 1 year before they earn it and there are too many variables with players salaries and bonuses - But you keep using this as your argument

I have not seen any where where it states the player must be in the top 5 % of earners in their 1st year and that would be impossible to determine 1 year out specially with all the tricks and bonuses in players contracts as well as clubs deciding to front load contracts along the way.

Only way to determine is with facts they have from the year the contract is signed
If it falls into the 5% bracket then the compo is provided in november to be used or traded in the draft

Impossible to determine 12 months ahead where that would fall
Unless you find something that says that the player must be in the top 5% earners in the first year of his contract
I will still hold my position

Has absolutely nothing to do with how their payments are structured and front and end loading.

It's simply total remuneration package of the contract (excluding performance bonus') / number of years of contract.
 
Nov 23, 2015
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Has absolutely nothing to do with how their payments are structured and front and end loading.

It's simply total remuneration package of the contract (excluding performance bonus') / number of years of contract.
My front ending comment is not about the compo pick provided .

it was about what the following years top 5% of players would be to see if the player fell into a band 1 compo range
 

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Your table is 2021
The table you need to use is 2020

There is no way the AFL can determine what the players will earn 1 year before they earn it and there are too many variables with players salaries and bonuses - But you keep using this as your argument

I have not seen any where where it states the player must be in the top 5 % of earners in their 1st year and that would be impossible to determine 1 year out specially with all the tricks and bonuses in players contracts as well as clubs deciding to front load contracts along the way.

Only way to determine is with facts they have from the year the contract is signed
If it falls into the 5% bracket then the compo is provided in november to be used or traded in the draft

Impossible to determine 12 months ahead where that would fall
Unless you find something that says that the player must be in the top 5% earners in the first year of his contract
I will still hold my position
The compo is based on a players guaranteed money, so the AFL knows 100% what a player will earn in terms of guaranteed money in the following year.
 
Nov 23, 2015
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The compo is based on a players guaranteed money, so the AFL knows 100% what a player will earn in terms of guaranteed money in the following year.
LOL are you deliberately ignoring the point im making ?

How does the AFL know exactly what the 5% earners are the year after they award the compo pick - Its impossible
They have to provide the compo based on the top 5% of earners of the season that had just been completed

Not sure what you dont understand about the question mate
 

Lsta062

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What about gibcus
I think your missing perspective
we haven’t had the early picks until last 12m and then we have used them to address a hole in the midfield , earlier on we used higher selections which didn’t come off
its a balancing act when you got a winning side with limited openings , players just won’t hang around , we tabled a contract to ccj but why would he stay with uncertainty over a game , read same for Higgins and butler . Coll will experience a bit of this in off season as they have several qty players not getting a game , they won’t hang around
so moral of the story , don’t carp on the list manager
Hmmm, I’m not convinced if I am to be honest. We’re probably going to have to agree to disagree because even if the youngsters in key positions leave, you can anticipate that as the list manager/recruiter. If we as supporters can, then they certainly can too. It was obvious that CCJ and Chol were leaving, so a proactive list manager/recruiter would make moves in advance to ensure a seamless transition (well, as seamless as possible). Don’t think we did that as we’d make moves once it’s already become a problem.

To go on the Gibcus point, he also came in after KPDs were already an issue. This is why my view is that we’re more reactionary than proactive.

Having said that, I don’t think we have the worst list managers/recruiters as we do eventually address it before it becomes a real problem (e.g., North Melbourne under Brad Scott). I have confidence that they will address our KPF issues now that it’s obvious it’s an issue. But we want the next Premiership/consistent prelim side soon (latest in 5-6 years after this season). That’s what good list managers would do. We’ll have to see if our list managers have what it takes to do that.
 
Every single player is ranked from 800-1 in the AFL.

The non-applicable players (u/25 and non FA eligible) are excluded.

A pivot table is refreshed with the eligible players and their relative ranking.

You are categorically wrong about it being an absolute number.

The line for band one changes with every single new contract in the AFL, it also changes year on year, as there's rise and fall and performance clause fluctuations in the top 40 age relative contracts.

It's a floating threshold that changes almost weekly with the re-signing of players and those contracts then being submitted formally to the AFL for approval.

The Band 1 threshold will not be the same today as what it will be during FA and the sequence in which some Free Agents paperwork is submitted can change the threshold and be the difference between Band 1 and Band 2 in some cases.

I.e if HH is on more than Ben McKay, and his paperwork is submitted first and is ranked #33 and achieves Band 1, the #40 ranked players threshold moves + .82 points from the previous position (as an example).

Which might be enough for when Ben McKay's paperwork to be submitted the following day to be ranked #41, 0.15 points below #40. Band 2.

It would have been Band 1 the day before.

It's not just "$800k+", as it's based on points, not salary. Age being even more important than salary.
I'm using this as the basis of my opinion

To receive a first-round pick, a free agent must sign a deal that places them in the top five per cent of the rankings.

The bands are as follows:

- Top five per cent = first-round pick

- Top 15 per cent = end-of-first-round pick

- Top 30 per cent = second-round pick

- Top 50 per cent = end-of-second-round pick

- Top 70 per cent = third-round pick

- Below that = no pick


Based on that and the table I posted earlier, my understanding is that to earn a band 1 pick a Daniher would have needed to be paid in excess of $800k a year across the 3 year deal. I don't see how a player could be getting paid $750k and be considered to be in the top 5% or 15 players based on the assertion made by Tom Browne, that there were 300 players that Danihers deal was compared to.
 
LOL are you deliberately ignoring the point im making ?

How does the AFL know exactly what the 5% earners are the year after they award the compo pick - Its impossible
They have to provide the compo based on the top 5% of earners of the season that had just been completed

Not sure what you dont understand about the question mate
Because the AFL knows the value of contracts for players who are already signed up for the following year/s and then use that to do their calculations for what band a player lands in, if I've understood what Sphynx posted earlier correctly.
 
May 22, 2014
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Actually I posted a few pages back that I dont care what the dollars are as like you, In trust the club, but yes I would have an issue with the term. Clearly unlike you, I dont agree on getting a player at all costs. Short sighted and dangerous is that plan.

FWIW I do the trust the club, but if we didnt express our opinions on here, what is the point? Just sit around jacking each other off at how great the club is?

Do you go to the casino and keep betting until you finally win something and then call that a successful night? I'm guessing you would ;)
First and foremost i don't gamble except when i cross roads after a heavy night on the turps.

I'm a fan so i'm allowed to be shortsighted, we need someone to partner Lynch and i reckon HH can be that player because if it's not him then it will be no one because we can't trade out a high pick due to not having one and please don't mention Bradtke, he will back playing country football in 2025 and that's only because Richmond won't chop him this year. Bauer, nope but he might boot Cumbo out the door ( oh that's a topic for discussion: Cumbo or Bauer who would you prefer ) and now we are left with Ryan, Soldo and Miller as partners for Lynch.

Getting HH not only helps us on field but also allows us to then put work into finding Lynch's replacement for when he retires instead of trying to find two.
 
Feb 14, 2014
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Because the AFL knows the value of contracts for players who are already signed up for the following year/s and then use that to do their calculations for what band a player lands in, if I've understood what Sphynx posted earlier cocorrectly.
To go on further with this, the clubs would have to submit paperwork to the AFL that would give them an accounting of the salary cap if the highest paid players played all H&A matches plus 4 finals.

If they didn't do those projections of known player payments + performance bonuses, then we would see clubs breach the salary cap annually
 
First and foremost i don't gamble except when i cross roads after a heavy night on the turps.

I'm a fan so i'm allowed to be shortsighted, we need someone to partner Lynch and i reckon HH can be that player because if it's not him then it will be no one because we can't trade out a high pick due to not having one and please don't mention Bradtke, he will back playing country football in 2025 and that's only because Richmond won't chop him this year. Bauer, nope but he might boot Cumbo out the door ( oh that's a topic for discussion: Cumbo or Bauer who would you prefer ) and now we are left with Ryan, Soldo and Miller as partners for Lynch.

Getting HH not only helps us on field but also allows us to then put work into finding Lynch's replacement for when he retires instead of trying to find two.
I actually think we agree for the most part, just not on the finer details.

I would still help you cross the road though.
 

tropicaltiger

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Ryan's not that slow for his size, not saying he's that quick either but he looks about half a yard quicker than Nank these days and is a positive speed demon compared to Soldo.
he has good pace and nimble for his size and good around his ankles and quick decision maker... how was that snap over his shoulder from 30m that nearly snuck through for a point in the dying seconds of the game, can anyone seriously imagine soldo being able to do that. that last few minutes when the kid was instrumental in our victory will do wonders for his confidence.
 

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Nov 23, 2015
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Because the AFL knows the value of contracts for players who are already signed up for the following year/s and then use that to do their calculations for what band a player lands in, if I've understood what Sphynx posted earlier correctly.
No Chance !!!

Your just making sh!t up as you go along now
How would the AFL know what triggers get reached B & F , Brownlow votes , Goals , Games played to activate players bonuses
 

Noidnadroj

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In 5 years' time 600 won't be that far off the average AFL salary. If McStay went for 600 x5, HH will be 700-800 x 5 without question.

Yes, and that’s the sort of coin where I think we should say pass. Use the money we save to Front end the TT, Bolton and Hopper deals and get a war chest ready for a really big fish down the track.

Carlton can’t ‘go shopping’ to improve their list because too much money is tied up in big contracts for B-graders like Williams, McGovern and Martin.
 
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Hmmm, I’m not convinced if I am to be honest. We’re probably going to have to agree to disagree because even if the youngsters in key positions leave, you can anticipate that as the list manager/recruiter. If we as supporters can, then they certainly can too. It was obvious that CCJ and Chol were leaving, so a proactive list manager/recruiter would make moves in advance to ensure a seamless transition (well, as seamless as possible). Don’t think we did that as we’d make moves once it’s already become a problem.

To go on the Gibcus point, he also came in after KPDs were already an issue. This is why my view is that we’re more reactionary than proactive.

Having said that, I don’t think we have the worst list managers/recruiters as we do eventually address it before it becomes a real problem (e.g., North Melbourne under Brad Scott). I have confidence that they will address our KPF issues now that it’s obvious it’s an issue. But we want the next Premiership/consistent prelim side soon (latest in 5-6 years after this season). That’s what good list managers would do. We’ll have to see if our list managers have what it takes to do that.
Well it’s a lot easier said then done , only way we could have made an opening is sack jack 2 seasons ago , he went onto kick over 100g since cj and chol split
 

All Aust

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He has the potential to be. Key word is potential. He has a clear lack of speed and marking ability which are needed for someone his size. Good tap-work and skills are not enough for us to have a premiership quality forward/ruck. He will need to improve pace and marking ability/strength.
Look at Tim English at around 2018. Muscle bulk needed. I have not known of Ryan to miss a contest, I contest your slow comment.

Due to Gibcus not being able to disturb the grass most, if not all, this season, Tiges are likely to trade in a KPF. All history shows that this will be done within budget. End of season always gives players who want out, so while HH is bulls testicles obvious, I doubt he is the one and only choice.

My strong bias comes from that smarmy smirking self titled "scoop"; the Pumpkin Head. If he is parroting HH to the Tiges for x$ and x yr's , then I am convinced this is a lie on all fronts. I just cannot convince myself that that person will utter one truth.

Could Tiges benefit from HH? Yes surely, but not at all costs. I think Gary Lyon is right on the true value but someone will most likely offer a Sydney house auction price. 3-4 years is a reasonable contract length. Someone will offer more.

HH and management can go with money, with likely premiership success, or go with best fit / best lifestyle. HH will has these options.
 
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Feb 14, 2014
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No Chance !!!

Your just making sh!t up as you go along now
How would the AFL know what triggers get reached B & F , Brownlow votes , Goals , Games played to activate players bonuses
Refer to a post I made earlier but the salary cap is how.

It would be very easy to do forward projections in Excel based on player contracts. You can take variables (brownlow votes, goals, games etc) and do testing on "salary cap" worst case scenarios.

Under your version of the world, if a team ends up with half the AA players, wins the flag and has a brownlow, coleman and norm Smith medallist and has the rising star, that team would be fined in going over the salary cap.
 

domin8

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Heaps of questions really...

HH has had 8 years to secure and tie down a spot and be left there because he's the best option there for his team.

He hasn't done that once...

He is a victim of his own versatility. Able to play both ends of the game effectively is a rare commodity. Him not playing forward at the Giants is due to key injuries in the back half and the inability for others on the lineup to cover.
 
Nov 24, 2008
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Yes, and that’s the sort of coin where I think we should say pass. Use the money we save to Front end the TT, Bolton and Hopper deals and get a war chest ready for a really big fish down the track.

Carlton can’t ‘go shopping’ to improve their list because too much money is tied up in big contracts for B-graders like Williams, McGovern and Martin.
Carlton are a rabble though.
 
Nov 23, 2015
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Refer to a post I made earlier but the salary cap is how.

It would be very easy to do forward projections in Excel based on player contracts. You can take variables (brownlow votes, goals, games etc) and do testing on "salary cap" worst case scenarios.

Under your version of the world, if a team ends up with half the AA players, wins the flag and has a brownlow, coleman and norm Smith medallist and has the rising star, that team would be fined in going over the salary cap.
Why would they even consider projecting !!

There is nothing i can find that indicates that the 5% of top earners needs to be in the players first year so the argument is just pointless as the compo pick is given out soon as the paper work is lodged and most likely based on the year that its lodged not the following year.

That would also lead to so many more variables like if that was the case and the 1st year was to be the basis then the club that offers the deal front loads it into the 1st year and what happens in situations where its a 5 year deal ?
Does it need to be every year ?

basically the contract offer gets lodged and the AFL see if its in the 5 % earners range in the year its lodged and compo handed out in 2 hours.

Regarding your later comment about clubs being fined ever year if all parameters are met and exceed cap
Yes they should not sign cheques they cant honour as their is a salary cal which allows 5% over/under
 
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