Trades and draft selections

[The Boy From Brasil]

The other thing this Walker discussion brings to mind is how shallow the 2003 draft was. The only genuine gun in the top 10 from that year was Cooney. Look who came next:
2 - Walker
3 - Sylvia
4 - Ray
5 - McLean
6 - Bradley
7 - Tenace
8 - R.Clarke
9 - Trotter
10 - Dunn

True, it was a pretty weak draft looking at it. Sylvia is a good player, and McLean pre injuries was good. It falls away after number 5.

On a different topic, that is why I have mentioned before that luck plays a part in trying to win a premiership. There is an amount of luck with the timing of when you get your early draft picks and your priority picks. The two years we had priority picks, we had two other clubs that had them as well. So our picks were 1 & 4 in a weak draft and 3 & 6 in a draft where the star quality cut out at 5(buddy Franklin). You look at St Kilda when they had their priority picks and had 1 & 2, Riewoldt and Kosi. And that is the difference between us winning a premiership and making prelims every year. We havn't been able to get the match winning champions that usually comes from the first picks.

 

[chef]

True, but that is the same as every other trade possibility that has been raised on our board so far. Sherman, Tambling, Rosa, McKinley, Nahas. No one of them would ever make a premiership 22. Well, a Williamstown one maybe, but not an AFL one. The standard is dropping daily.

I am not a huge Walker fan(mainly because he is too injury prone) but he is the only player mentioned that I think would make our 22. And he is a champion compared to some of the other players mentioned. He is 24, has had injuries, off field issues and hasn't been consistent. On the other side, he has talent and can play that outside mid role that we need. If we are looking at 2012-13 as our year of intent, then he will be 26-27 so that is still at on okay age.

So, some plus for him but also some risk factor. Personally I would keep our draft choices, or if we have to lose Hill and Everitt, would try and get as high a draft pick as we can. But if we have to trade a player for player, Walker is probably the best of the bad bunch IMO.

Was injury prone, since he's had his shoulders tighten injuries haven't been a problem. It's more the lack of faith from Ratten that has cost him games.

Of that lot, Nahas fits the role of genuinely quick crumbing forward. So why not, and he will come cheap? He is 22yo off the rookie list, so could have a fair bit of improvement in him. Stats not much to look at except he lays over 5 tackles a game.

We really lack that player that causes fan excitement and opposition defenders to shit themselves when the ball hits the ground in the forward line.

I wouldn't mind Nahas, as long as he's cheap.

 

[The Boy From Brasil]

Of that lot, Nahas fits the role of genuinely quick crumbing forward. So why not, and he will come cheap? He is 22yo off the rookie list, so could have a fair bit of improvement in him. Stats not much to look at except he lays over 5 tackles a game.

We really lack that player that causes fan excitement and opposition defenders to shit themselves when the ball hits the ground in the forward line.

Agree, that we need a goal kicking forward and small forward to tackle and lock the ball in.

But most importantly we need players to win us a premiership when our next window is? Can you see Nahas ever becoming a premiership player? I just don't rate him as a quality player. He is an okay average player. But I can't see the point of wasting draft picks on average standard players.

 

[The_Bulldogs_Bite]

True, but that is the same as every other trade possibility that has been raised on our board so far. Sherman, Tambling, Rosa, McKinley, Nahas. No one of them would ever make a premiership 22. Well, a Williamstown one maybe, but not an AFL one. The standard is dropping daily.

Huh?

There's plenty of absolute hacks with premiership medals, some much worse than the players you listed. Hell - Rosa is a premiership player, isn't he? Guaranteed by next Saturday afternoon there will be a couple more.

No side has 22 'guns' running around. Players fill roles. Players like Walker, Sherman, Tambling, Rosa and Nahas could be all part of that.

Bit of a strange comment to make, you're usually on the mark TBFB.

 

[chef]

Agree, that we need a goal kicking forward and small forward to tackle and lock the ball in.

But most importantly we need players to win us a premiership when our next window is? Can you see Nahas ever becoming a premiership player? I just don't rate him as a quality player. He is an okay average player. But I can't see the point of wasting draft picks on average standard players.

A hell of a lot of average(and a few crap ones) players have played in premierships. It's all about whether he can play a role in the team.

Do you think our windows shut now, or with a little bit of a rejig we are still a chance next season?

 

[The Boy From Brasil]

Did Mundy go to freo for the pick we used trading for .. forget his name, aboriginal flanker.

You are correct. We traded for Steven Koops with our pick 19, and they drafted Mundy with that pick.

That should be a lesson.Don't waste your draft picks, especially early ones.

That 2003 year under Rhode, was an absolute disaster regarding our trading.

 

[StringyDog]

Huh?

There's plenty of absolute hacks with premiership medals, some much worse than the players you listed. Hell - Rosa is a premiership player, isn't he? Guaranteed by next Saturday afternoon there will be a couple more.

Yep, by next week a group some of Dawson, Ray, McQualter, Eddy, Peake, Davis, Macaffer, Dawes, Blair will become premiership players, Davis might become a 4 time grand finalist and premiership player with under 20 touches and 2 goals combined for his 4 grand finals, being a premiership player has no reflection on being a good player, it just means you were in a good team at the right time.

 

[The Boy From Brasil]

Huh?

There's plenty of absolute hacks with premiership medals, some much worse than the players you listed. Hell - Rosa is a premiership player, isn't he? Guaranteed by next Saturday afternoon there will be a couple more.

No side has 22 'guns' running around. Players fill roles. Players like Walker, Sherman, Tambling, Rosa and Nahas could be all part of that.

Bit of a strange comment to make, you're usually on the mark TBFB.

Rosa was an emergency in both West Coast grand final sides. But I take your point, he could have played in a premiership.

My point isn't so much a slight on the players, it just that posters can be cavalier about giving up draft picks for average players. And that short term strategy can come back to bite clubs year after year. And it is especially relevant for our club because we have got so much value out of mid to lower picks.

I will give you an example. If those players were available say two years ago. Posters would be saying, hey lets give up pick 31 for Rosa or Sherman. That is a great deal. And we would have missed out on Jones or Roughhead.

 

[The Boy From Brasil]

A hell of a lot of average(and a few crap ones) players have played in premierships. It's all about whether he can play a role in the team.

Do you think our windows shut now, or with a little bit of a rejig we are still a chance next season?

That is probably where I am off centre to most posters thoughts. Most posters are thinking we are in premiership mode and thinking what trades will help us next year.

For me, next year is only important to get games into our young talent. If we finish top four or are a premiership chance great, but I am thinking mid term 2 years to build a premiership side, because that is when players like Grant, Cordy, Roughhead, Jones, etc will have played over 50 games.

No right or wrong line of thinking though. Just a different way of approaching things.

 

[Bulldog Joe]

Agree, that we need a goal kicking forward and small forward to tackle and lock the ball in.

But most importantly we need players to win us a premiership when our next window is? Can you see Nahas ever becoming a premiership player? I just don't rate him as a quality player. He is an okay average player. But I can't see the point of wasting draft picks on average standard players.

Plenty of average footballers play in premierships

Dempster
Buchanan
Shane Ellen
Aaron Keating
Josh Mahoney

Pretty easy to find

 

[Mofra]

Plenty of average footballers play in premierships

Dempster
Buchanan
Shane Ellen
Aaron Keating
Josh Mahoney

Pretty easy to find

Agree - the Saints have made an artform of getting guys who can just play their role in the team. McQualter/Dempster/Eddy don't really strike many people as premiership players either but they were a whisker away from it a few days ago.

 

[The Boy From Brasil]

Plenty of average footballers play in premierships

Dempster
Buchanan
Shane Ellen
Aaron Keating
Josh Mahoney

Pretty easy to find

Agree 100% with this and the other posters who made that point.

But specifically about our team, do you think Rosa or Tambling or McKinley or whoever is going to help us win a premiership?

That is what posters have to think about. What do we need to win a premiership? And then you work back from there. Everyone will have different opinions depending upon how and when we can achieve this.

 

[bulldogsman]

Agree, that we need a goal kicking forward and small forward to tackle and lock the ball in.

But most importantly we need players to win us a premiership when our next window is? Can you see Nahas ever becoming a premiership player? I just don't rate him as a quality player. He is an okay average player. But I can't see the point of wasting draft picks on average standard players.

Look at the two Grand Final teams

St Kilda - McQualter, Dempster, Eddy, Dawson, Blake, Peake
Collingwood - Davis, Brown, Toovey, Johnson

There not really quality either, but each of them can play a role in the side. Someone like Nahas could fix a major hole like Peake did for St Kilda this year and what Leigh Brown did for Collingwood.

 

[The Boy From Brasil]

Agree - the Saints have made an artform of getting guys who can just play their role in the team. McQualter/Dempster/Eddy don't really strike many people as premiership players either but they were a whisker away from it a few days ago.

It's a good point, but I think Collingwood is a better comparison.

St Kilda have many average players as you mentioned, but their A graders, elite matchwinners are better in quality and in numbers than ours. When you have Riewoldt and Hayes and Goodard etc, you can afford to carry a few at the bottom end. Then you add the fact(which is the point you are making) that Lyon has an ability to transform ordinary players into important ones because they carry out a role for their team.

Collingwood is comparible to us, because they have less A graders than we do. And yet, they have leapfrogged us this year, simply though game plan, intensity, etc.

 

[The Boy From Brasil]

Look at the two Grand Final teams

St Kilda - McQualter, Dempster, Eddy, Dawson, Blake, Peake
Collingwood - Davis, Brown, Toovey, Johnson

There not really quality either, but each of them can play a role in the side. Someone like Nahas could fix a major hole like Peake did for St Kilda this year and what Leigh Brown did for Collingwood.

Okay, so I will ask a question to you and all the other posters wanting us to recruit these players.

Do you still think our premiership window is next year? What is your aim in recruiting these players?

No right or wrong answer, just interested to hear the purpose behind why posters want to have players from other clubs rather than draft picks?

 

[Kramer1]

I know it's an unsubstantiated source but the last thing we need now is another player who won't go in hard or put his head over the ball. On this board that was the recurrent criticism of Hill, Stack and Eagleton and possibly one or two others still on the list.

Can anyone comment on whether Walker is a bit soft in this regard?

I'll have a crack.

I think AW actually has a pretty decent hunger for the contest...if anything he has been prone for giving away some avoidable frees for being a bit too keen to impact a contest, a bit like Waite does. So I wouldn't say timid or soft.

The shoulder injuries must leave some mental scarring though. He is a ferocious trainer, and has worked hard to get himself back in the mix ahead of time on each occasion, just to go down when the real stuff starts and the crunches gets harder. This has to modify the approach one would think.

Post shoulder surgery (where bone was grafted to his sockets to provide more support) everything seems to be in order, as evidenced by his collar bone giving way before his shoulders when crunched earlier in the year. It may take another season to regain full confidence, but he was certainly hard at the contest in the final against Sydney.

I'll add I don't think he is a natural defender, and occasionaly gets caught out in terms of positioning...being played out of position, and subsequently dropped a couple of times for not performing in that position I can understand him considering a change of scenery.

 

[chef]

Okay, so I will ask a question to you and all the other posters wanting us to recruit these players.

Do you still think our premiership window is next year? What is your aim in recruiting these players?

No right or wrong answer, just interested to hear the purpose behind why posters want to have players from other clubs rather than draft picks?

I say yes, we have a 2-4 year premiership window in front of us in which if things go our way we could win a flag.

We have a core of players - Hall, Hudson, Hahn, Gilbee, Hargrave, Lake, Gia, Murphy, Boyd, Morris and Cross who have between 1 and 4 years left in them. They make up half our team ATM so it's really go for the flag now or cut the list deep(especially this group of players) and aim for going again in 3-4 seasons.

Our side IMO really only lacks some outside run and a small crumbing forward, which we can fill easily in the trade period. these players don't need to be stars they just have to be able to fill a role in the team. We have depth and talent in all other areas.

 

[The_Bulldogs_Bite]

Rosa was an emergency in both West Coast grand final sides. But I take your point, he could have played in a premiership.

My point isn't so much a slight on the players, it just that posters can be cavalier about giving up draft picks for average players. And that short term strategy can come back to bite clubs year after year. And it is especially relevant for our club because we have got so much value out of mid to lower picks.

I will give you an example. If those players were available say two years ago. Posters would be saying, hey lets give up pick 31 for Rosa or Sherman. That is a great deal. And we would have missed out on Jones or Roughhead.

Yep - I knew this was where you were more coming from.

There's never a risk free trade and I personally would stay away from Rosa. I'd be interested in Sherman and Walker if we aren't over paying. They are the perfect age (23 or 24) and have their best football still ahead of them. These are the types we need to recruit for - not the 28 to 30 year olds with only a few seasons left to give.

I don't think we'll be good enough to challenge next year, but we should be in 2-3 years time once Roughead, Grant, Jones, Howard, Wallis, Libba etc. have come through. Having said that, things can change quickly. Luck with injuries and one or two smart trades, we could be around the mark again. Sherman/Walker offer both a need for the now and the future. Both have qualities we severely lack (Pace, run/carry) and are versatile (Sherman plays HFF/Mid and Walker HBF/Mid/HFF). They aren't the best by foot but I think their strengths outweigh the negatives.

In regards to mid-lower picks, I am sure we'll still have a couple of picks to play with. With Harbrow's compensation pick, Hill, Stack and possibly Everitt leaving - we have a few options. The three above players have had opportunities with us, but haven't taken them. Andrejs is harshly marked though.

Another thing is that small to medium types are easier to find. In the last 3-4 years we've recruited quality talls (Roughead, Jones, Cordy, Grant) so our rucks/KPF's look pretty solid. We desperately require a young key back but that aside, we should be able to fill the rest of the holes in the next 1-2 years regardless of trading in Sherman and/or Walker.

 

[bulldogsman]

Okay, so I will ask a question to you and all the other posters wanting us to recruit these players.

Do you still think our premiership window is next year? What is your aim in recruiting these players?

No right or wrong answer, just interested to hear the purpose behind why posters want to have players from other clubs rather than draft picks?

Yes I believe it is still open. We have a number of youngsters coming through, that can take another step up next year. When fit we have a quality midfield and backline still, but I do think our forward line is the main issue. If we can increase our forward line pressure by say 10% and our tackling, it could go a long way to getting us a premiership. I don't think we are that far away, forward line pressure is really our only major hole IMO.

A small crumbing forward and someone who can replace Harbrow (like a Sherman maybe) is what I'd be looking for.

 

[The Boy From Brasil]

I say yes, we have a 2-4 year premiership window in front of us in which if things go our way we could win a flag.

We have a core of players - Hall, Hudson, Hahn, Gilbee, Hargrave, Lake, Gia, Murphy, Boyd, Morris and Cross who have between 1 and 4 years left in them. They make up half our team ATM so it's really go for the flag now or cut the list deep(especially this group of players) and aim for going again in 3-4 seasons.

Our side IMO really only lacks some outside run and a small crumbing forward, which we can fill easily in the trade period. these players don't need to be stars they just have to be able to fill a role in the team. We have depth and talent in all other areas.

Okay, you argued your case well. I would say that the majority of posters on this board have the same theory as you. I have a different point of view(mainly because I think we lack match winners and A graders who can influence games now) which is why my views on trading/draft selections will be different to most on the board. We are looking at different periods of time.

How high are you willing to go as far as trade picks go to get one of the players mentioned? Our first two are locked in, but if the club trades out, it is unknown how high our draft picks will be that we get in. For example, if we traded out a player for a pick 20, or a 25, would you keep that pick or use it for one of the players mentioned?

 

[stefoid]

Agree, that we need a goal kicking forward and small forward to tackle and lock the ball in.

But most importantly we need players to win us a premiership when our next window is? Can you see Nahas ever becoming a premiership player? I just don't rate him as a quality player. He is an okay average player. But I can't see the point of wasting draft picks on average standard players.

Depends if he has scope for improvement. I wouldnt know. I cant see us giving much for him, maybe a 3rd rounder at best, which is pretty late in the piece this year.

Someone on the richmond board said they would take everitt and our 3rd rounder for nahas and their 2nd round (pick 33ish?). would improve our drafting position and fill a hole on the list. I reckon thats the type of trade we should look at - try to get better draft picks, not just more of them.

 

[The Boy From Brasil]

Yep - I knew this was where you were more coming from.

There's never a risk free trade and I personally would stay away from Rosa. I'd be interested in Sherman and Walker if we aren't over paying. They are the perfect age (23 or 24) and have their best football still ahead of them. These are the types we need to recruit for - not the 28 to 30 year olds with only a few seasons left to give.

I don't think we'll be good enough to challenge next year, but we should be in 2-3 years time once Roughead, Grant, Jones, Howard, Wallis, Libba etc. have come through. Having said that, things can change quickly. Luck with injuries and one or two smart trades, we could be around the mark again. Sherman/Walker offer both a need for the now and the future. Both have qualities we severely lack (Pace, run/carry) and are versatile (Sherman plays HFF/Mid and Walker HBF/Mid/HFF). They aren't the best by foot but I think their strengths outweigh the negatives.

In regards to mid-lower picks, I am sure we'll still have a couple of picks to play with. With Harbrow's compensation pick, Hill, Stack and possibly Everitt leaving - we have a few options. The three above players have had opportunities with us, but haven't taken them. Andrejs is harshly marked though.

Another thing is that small to medium types are easier to find. In the last 3-4 years we've recruited quality talls (Roughead, Jones, Cordy, Grant) so our rucks/KPF's look pretty solid. We desperately require a young key back but that aside, we should be able to fill the rest of the holes in the next 1-2 years regardless of trading in Sherman and/or Walker.

Really good post. We agree on most things, and you made good points 1)about not over paying and 2)the age factor is important and 3)it takes less time to develop mids or smaller players than tall players, and we (touch wood) have a young spine already developing.

I am probably not as sold as Sherman as you, but no problem, it is not so much that we trade for him(or the other players) that worries me, it is more that we use a valuable draft pick on them. So, it probably all comes back to the point you made before about not overpaying. For example, my reaction to us getting Sherman, and using say pick 40 on him would be different to use pick 20 on him.

I would love to get another live draft pick around the 20 or under range. Probably over optimistic I know but the more high draft picks we can get, the greater the chance for a premiership in a couple of years time IMO.

 

[bulldogsman]

I would love to get another live draft pick around the 20 or under range. Probably over optimistic I know but the more high draft picks we can get, the greater the chance for a premiership in a couple of years time IMO.

Thats wishful thinking and if we could I would love a few players around this pick that would fit our needs. It won't happen unfortunately.

 

[chef]

Okay, you argued your case well. I would say that the majority of posters on this board have the same theory as you. I have a different point of view(mainly because I think we lack match winners and A graders who can influence games now) which is why my views on trading/draft selections will be different to most on the board. We are looking at different periods of time.

How high are you willing to go as far as trade picks go to get one of the players mentioned? Our first two are locked in, but if the club trades out, it is unknown how high our draft picks will be that we get in. For example, if we traded out a player for a pick 20, or a 25, would you keep that pick or use it for one of the players mentioned?

I would be happy to

Trade Everitt to Carlton for Walker in a straight swap
Trade our compo pick to Brisbane for Sherman
Trade Hill and Stack for draft picks
See what we can get for Minson
Pick up Nahas as cheaply as possible

 

[The_Bulldogs_Bite]

For example, my reaction to us getting Sherman, and using say pick 40 on him would be different to use pick 20 on him.

I would love to get another live draft pick around the 20 or under range. Probably over optimistic I know but the more high draft picks we can get, the greater the chance for a premiership in a couple of years time IMO.

Yeah, it definitely all comes down to a matter of cost. I wouldn't use pick 20 on Sherman either, but if Harbrow's compensation pick is around 28-30 then I'd consider that.

Agree with your second part too. Everitt is an interesting one. I wonder a) How interested Carlton are and b) If Clayton/Gold Coast will put in an offer. Minson is another that could draw a late teens/early 20's pick if the rumours are true about his name being thrown up. There's a few clubs with very weak ruck divisions.

Reading between the lines, the club appears to be doing the right thing in chasing a young 22-24 y.o player with pace and versatility. We haven't overpaid since Eade and co have been at the helm, so I highly doubt that would change.