Analysis - Trading future picks | BigFooty

Analysis Trading future picks

Discussion in 'St Kilda' started by goodie23, Dec 1, 2018.

  1. goodie23

    goodie23 Premium Platinum

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    Note: Aiming for more of a statistical analysis than an opinion piece but read this how you will.

    Anyone else a little concerned at how willing we've been to go full Sonny Weaver Jnr. and leverage our future picks? Since trading future picks came in we've developed a great fondness for parting with future 2nds but looking at the aftermath of the live trading this year left me worried. Let's look at our record so far, future trades only and the pick number they wound up being:

    2015 - Nathan Freeman for our 2016 2nd round pick (33)
    2016 - Jack Steele for our 2017 2nd round pick (27), the Koby Stevens deal saw us received North Melbourne's 2017 4th round pick (59) and concede our 2017 5th round pick (74), Hawthorn's future 1st (7), 23 and 36 for picks 10 and 68
    2017 - Logan Austin and Port's 2018 4th round pick for our 2018 3rd round pick (42), pick 34 and Adelaide's 2018 4th round pick (from Port) for our 2018 2nd round pick (27) plus picks 59 and 63
    2018 - Our 2019 2nd round pick went to Sydney in the Hanneberry deal, we traded 2019 fourth rounders with West Coast in the Hickey deal, we traded our 2019 3rd round pick to North for pick 51 and our 2019 4th round pick to Carlton for pick 67

    Now there's some absolutely fantastic trades there, some that didn't go our way and some still in the balance. But the fact remains that we're entering 2019 without our own 2nd, 3rd and 4th round picks. We keep having to make trades to have any say in the draft, the Port Adelaide deals last year are why we gave up 28, so brilliantly earned in the Hanneberry trade, for 36 and 46. We've traded our 2nd round pick 4 years straight. We went absolutely berserk during the live trading on draft day 2, the draft strikes back.

    Interestingly enough the one time we've gone after another team's future pick worked brilliantly.

    We may ultimately be doing the smart thing, trading future picks to get players into our system 12 months early. Alternatively we're borrowing against the draft credit card and that bill's going to hit us hard.

    Thoughts?
     

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  2. Nutsngum

    Nutsngum Premiership Player

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    If we continue to trade our 2nd rounder up until the league falls apart then we come out ahead. Its simply a matter of attrition.
     
  3. Impatient Saint

    Impatient Saint Club Legend

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    We have been chasing our tail in recent years because our list was so unbalanced and we so desperately needed talent. I do agree however its like we have been living in over draft. I read the other day with the inception of 'live trading' that 2nd round picks will become like gold.

    I think the club feel next year they will have a NGA selection and possibly a couple of Father Sons, so perhaps they have considered those picks as a priority over next years draft group.

    It seems they tried to get back into the
    bottom end of this years first round, as they were apparently keen on Collier-Dawkins. Perhaps after next year the club will retain the 2nd and other picks. But I think given how young etc our list is/was they have taken the right path.
     
    Last edited: Dec 2, 2018
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  4. Kildonan

    Kildonan Moderator

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    I was trying to do a reckoning of where we stand with future draft picks.

    Before the 2018 draft we had already traded away our future Rd 2 pick (Sydney) and our future Rd 4 pick (WCE) and we held a future Rd 4 pick tied to WCE.

    During the draft we traded out our future Rd 3 pick to NM and received 2 x Rd 4 picks from GWS (tied to GWS and GC - I believe)

    We were holding Rd 1, 3 x Rd 4, and our 5th or later round picks, but I believe one of those 4th round picks went to Carlton

    So by my calculations we hold our own first round pick, 2 x 4th round picks (not tied to us), and our own 5th and later round picks
     
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  5. Sir Skid

    Sir Skid Just one of the boys!

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    Yes i think thats right Kildonan
    Looks a bit sparse though.

    I think we'll see a player or two traded out for picks depending on who the club has in their sights.
    1 or 2 FS's and it all could make sense.
     
    Last edited: Dec 2, 2018
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  6. Kildonan

    Kildonan Moderator

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    This outcome reflects the situation the club found itself in. After a poor performance in 2018, the club, the fans and the media alike were aware that changes needed to be made. We went about revamping our coaching and other off-field personnel and then set about doing something about our on-field personnel. I was a bit concerned that they would overreact and throw the Pick #3 away chasing a trade that would allow them to "be seen" to be doing something but may not have been in our long term interest.

    In the end we traded well (although WCE reamed us on Hickey) and we essentially gambled future picks to bring in mature aged players with qualities we definitely were deficient in. A review at some later date will disclose whether that was successful or not, but I and many others are happy with the club rolling the dice on these players.

    This draft was seen as very high in quality at the top end but not quite as deep as recent years, and next year's draft has a few good prospects but is not seen as anything special. So they were willing to sacrifice a few picks from next year in order to do what they needed to this year. I suspect we will be quiet next year - taking our first pick and possibly one or two F/S. If we perform well in 2019 we might be able to draw a FA but the list doesn't look all that impressive.

    We took two U18 draftees, both of whom were considered as top end talent but both drifted down the draft table due to injury.
    The club have backed their medical staff here and gone for the high end talent despite the injuries. Again rolling the dice - doing everything they can to wring out as much player for their draft pick. (Max King was touted as a strong chance to go #1 before his knee injury and Jack Bytel was touted as a probable top 10 pick before his series of back injuries saw him fall from calculations).

    Three of the mature age players we took have speed, evasiveness and tackling ferocity on their resume. All could end up being long term contributors to this club and we are all keen to see them get a run and show us their wares in our colours.
     
  7. gringo2011

    gringo2011 Premium Gold

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    To me trades that we win are god like the Steele trade, but Trout and co traded picks for Hickey, Longer and Freeman who were all fails. The Hunter Clarke one will be a win if he's a gun and some of those guys that came in the trade end up good players. It's high risk and you want to make sure you get them right.

    We all thought we'd bent Hawks over for Mc Evoy and traded our ruckman for Savage and Dunstan, in hindsight it hasn't quite ben the win we thought it was.
     
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  8. Coconut_twirl

    Coconut_twirl All Australian

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    I'm not too worried because I am confident the Saints can trade their way back into next year's draft. Maybe one of the tall forwards could be trade bait.
     
  9. Wintle

    Wintle Rookie

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    I believe we traded our pick 28 for picks 36 (ended up 41) and pick 46 (ended up 47) because we knew we were going to target some more mature players and this trade gave us an extra player to select.
    As it turned out, Jack Bytel was still there at pick 41 so we grabbed him and I think the club would be quite pleased with the fact that he was still there. And because we also now had pick 47, we were able to get Mathew Parker.
    From the initial trade with Sydney where we gave them our pick 39 plus our future second round pick in 2019, in return we ended up with Dan Hannebery, Jack Bytel and Mathew Parker.
    I would suggest we have done very well.
     
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  10. goodie23

    goodie23 Premium Platinum

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    We did it because

    http://www.saints.com.au/news/2018-10-17/saints-strengthen-draft-hand

    A position we were in because we'd sacrificed so many of this year's picks last year. We may have done really well but we also keep borrowing against our future to the tune of only having our first rounder, a couple of fourth rounders and picks after that for 2019.
     
  11. Diehard Saint

    Diehard Saint Norm Smith Medallist

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    So is there a problem continuing to borrow against our future every year? Quite clever really because if the competition ever stops we are one ahead if you know what I mean? We can just keep going every year ad nauseam.
     

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  12. Wintle

    Wintle Rookie

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    I wouldn't use the word "sacrificed". From memory we traded our future 3rd round selection for Logan Austin and I was at the game at Metricon Stadium when
    St Kilda got up to win in the last few minutes against the Gold Coast Suns. I thought Logan Austin had a great game this night. He was certainly very impressive in the second half in particular.
     
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  13. goodie23

    goodie23 Premium Platinum

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    Or one year when the music stops we're the ones left without a chair.

    We did two deals with Port last year, one of which involved giving up our 2018 2nd rounder. Giving up pick 2018 pick 27 for 2017 pick 34 (plus the other manoeuvrings within the deal involving 4th round picks) can be considered a sacrifice.
     
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  14. Coconut_twirl

    Coconut_twirl All Australian

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    That second round pick swap with Port last year was an absolute shocker. Everyone knew back then that 2018 was going to be a deep draft. And the player we got with that pick swap may never play an AFL game. We will just have to wait and see.
     
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  15. Diehard Saint

    Diehard Saint Norm Smith Medallist

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    Now that brings back memories! :rolleyes:

    Seriously though, they’re never going to stop future trading. It’s very hard to close the box once it’s been opened.
     
  16. Wintle

    Wintle Rookie

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    We selected Oscar Clavarino from that trade with Port Adelaide. True, Oscar hasn't played a senior game yet but it's only early in his career. He represented Vic Country in seven games over two years and made the U18 All Australian team in his junior years which is not a bad resume. Let's see how he goes before writing him off.
     
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  17. majortinkle

    majortinkle Premium Platinum

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    While we're a young list I am absolutely fine with it - encourage it to be honest.

    There will come a time when we're satisfied with our group that we'll transition to spending picks on trades to make a run for the flag.

    Once we've done that we should cease to spend future picks and make sure we don't fall into the trap of the Lyon-era and leave ourselves with no talent coming through.
     
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  18. st_trav_ofWA

    st_trav_ofWA Premiership Player

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    i think we get to caught up in it ... we trade picks to get the deals done in the year infront of us .. come the end of 2019 we will see our draft hand and trade accordingly to strenghen our list be it either by bringing in established players or improving our draft hand ... i really dont see an issue with it when the max it involves is a second round pick at worst case a second round pick is a pick in the 20's meaning we are only looking at giving up a player 20 times has been overlooked by a club ..
     
  19. gringo2011

    gringo2011 Premium Gold

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    It's like living on credit though, you usually have to pay overs to get back in. We sold Hickey very cheaply and seem to have got to a point where we keep our round one pick and really late picks. If the rebuild ends up being a fail and we need to start again or if we are trying to attract high end outside talent it limits our flexibility.
     
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  20. st_trav_ofWA

    st_trav_ofWA Premiership Player

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    i think we saw the ladscape change a fair bit on the second day of the draft this year.. we are seeing teams working with each other more and helping eachother out more than previous years the WCE helping the Swans a big example i think there may have even been a bit of good faith shown in other deals that are not openly clear to see ... for example a possible agreement between WCE , Sydney and Us that saw WCE get Hickey cheap , us get Hannas cheap and the swans to get their NGA pick cheaper ...
     
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  21. Impatient Saint

    Impatient Saint Club Legend

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    I think the WCE - Sydney deal was an up yours to the AFL, but cant see that being allowed again. Its something the AFL Integrity Unit will have to keep a close eye on, as it has opened the process up for all sorts of shady dealings between clubs.
     
  22. st_trav_ofWA

    st_trav_ofWA Premiership Player

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    its a loop hole of the AFL's own making .. but i dont for one second believe there were not more deals going on behind the closed doors that influenced the draft position .. unlike normal years this year it seemed as though most clubs knew what the others were wanting to do and they tended to help eachother do it it was almost like a trade period of players no one owned
     
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  23. goodie23

    goodie23 Premium Platinum

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    At no point have I mentioned the players selected with the future picks because that's not the point I'm trying to make. Not going anywhere near writing Oscar off, I'm questioning the manoeuvre that brought him to us and the pattern that's emerging. It's not even like that trade happened during live trading, we just gambled our future because that's the habit we've gotten into. Given we keep parting with future picks and bringing only late ones in I see these as questions worth asking.
     
  24. Rors

    Rors Brownlow Medallist

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    In the last 3 years, we’ve traded just 1 player & that was Hickey just 1.5 months ago. This can be viewed 2 ways - we either have great kids that want to stay or we have an abundance of shit kickers that we’ve put up for trade & no one wants them.

    I believe we’ve been trying to stay ahead of the curve by picking up top end talent with 2-3 yrs development at a cheaper rate by trading the 2nd & 3rd rounders. The Hawthorn trade in 2016 will show its real value in the next 2 years as Long, Battle & Clark hit their straps & mature. Compare that to Hawthorn who technically gave up those 3 players & then another 2nd rounder just to get Jaeger O’Meara. I’m so so glad we didn’t head down that road

    Obviously Freeman was a bust, but Steele & Austin look pretty good, especially my boy Jack who looks like he’ll be a star.

    As for next year, I’m not so fussed with our picks as we could have some talented guys OOC that may want to leave which will give us picks. But on the other hand, we may be blessed by our academy kids being guns (Biggie looks a ripper) & we then aren’t so reliant on having top end picks, so we can trade them for lower picks - Sydney-esque.

    On face value:
    2016 2nd for Freeman - bust
    2016 picks 10 & 68 for Long, Battle & 2017 1st (Clark) - obscenely good
    2017 2nd for Steele - obscenely good
    2018 2nd & 3rd for Clav & Austin - good
    2019 2nd for Hanners - good

    We’re doing well with our futures trading & im stoked we finally addressed our primary weakness this year by bringing in a gun senior leader type in Hanners. I was a huge knocker on him at the start, but he’s an impressive speaker & believe the midfield group will really lift with him around
     
  25. Wintle

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    Spot on.
     
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