Triple J Hottest 100 - 2019

(Log in to remove this ad.)

Joined
Apr 1, 2013
Posts
1,325
Likes
2,342
AFL Club
West Coast
#77
Any value in the 2 new markets on Sportsbet?
No crazy odds, think they are protecting themselves better this year, but might have the favourites wrong though. LAV probably two locks with Ocean Alley/NBT, doesn't seem to be a third in the mix so not sure why that is fav, would get on two at $4.50. Aus songs possibly value for 8 or 9 at $6.50 and $10, currently 8 but you'd say TIA is the only lock and Mantra looks vulnerable while Dean Lewis has to come back in. Plenty of variables still but enough Aus songs around that 8 should be favourite and 9 a sneaky chance.
 

Gibbsy

Moderator
Joined
Oct 12, 2009
Posts
21,735
Likes
22,495
Location
Geelong
AFL Club
Collingwood
Other Teams
Manchester City, Victory, Cavs
Moderator #79
Hopefully there’s some decent BYO odds otherwise they’re making it very appealing to just sit it all out. Crummy odds so far.

If I had to pick one it would be Like People (DZ Deathrays) to finish between #11-20 at $2.75. I don’t see it holding top 10
 

jack 23

Senior List
Joined
Apr 22, 2017
Posts
248
Likes
89
AFL Club
Geelong
#80
No crazy odds, think they are protecting themselves better this year, but might have the favourites wrong though. LAV probably two locks with Ocean Alley/NBT, doesn't seem to be a third in the mix so not sure why that is fav, would get on two at $4.50. Aus songs possibly value for 8 or 9 at $6.50 and $10, currently 8 but you'd say TIA is the only lock and Mantra looks vulnerable while Dean Lewis has to come back in. Plenty of variables still but enough Aus songs around that 8 should be favourite and 9 a sneaky chance.
2 LAV's was great value at $4.50 as it should have been the favourite outcome. its into $2.25 now which to me is about right.

Theres currently 2 LAV's in the top 100 and none in the 100-200 range (based on current data) so no great threat of a 3rd song entering the 100. If one does it will probably be Odette - Magnolia but for $4.50 Im more than happy to take that risk.

IMO a couple more LAV's should still make the 100-200 countdown.
 

jack 23

Senior List
Joined
Apr 22, 2017
Posts
248
Likes
89
AFL Club
Geelong
#81
Hopefully there’s some decent BYO odds otherwise they’re making it very appealing to just sit it all out. Crummy odds so far.

If I had to pick one it would be Like People (DZ Deathrays) to finish between #11-20 at $2.75. I don’t see it holding top 10

most of us getting Confidence @ $16 for the whole first week, which is now at $1.60 has given this year plenty of upside.

agree not as good odds as last year.

the head to heads on sportsbet arent even worth looking at.

Ive got $2000 on this so far. Will put as much as I can on it. Dont see this event as gambling, more like an investment due to knowledge of the statistics.
 

NotAMagpieBogan

Premiership Player
Joined
Mar 17, 2014
Posts
3,661
Likes
3,210
Location
Vic
AFL Club
Collingwood
#82
2 LAV's was great value at $4.50 as it should have been the favourite outcome. its into $2.25 now which to me is about right.

Theres currently 2 LAV's in the top 100 and none in the 100-200 range (based on current data) so no great threat of a 3rd song entering the 100. If one does it will probably be Odette - Magnolia but for $4.50 Im more than happy to take that risk.

IMO a couple more LAV's should still make the 100-200 countdown.
Where are you getting 101-200 data from? Is it your own?

I don’t really have that much faith in Warmtunas this year. A lot of songs at the top end that I can’t really see finishing so well. WAAX, Trophy Eyes and Luca Brasi will drop a bit I imagine (Anything Near Conviction dropped around 60 spots from its prediction a couple of years ago). I can’t really see DZ Deathrays doing so well, and I think Ruby Fields won’t be top 3 by the end. Post Malone and Drake will jump pretty high their current spots I think.

With the amount of fake votes popping up on social media, I think they’ll be a fair difference between the prediction and the final count.
 

jack 23

Senior List
Joined
Apr 22, 2017
Posts
248
Likes
89
AFL Club
Geelong
#83
Where are you getting 101-200 data from? Is it your own?

I don’t really have that much faith in Warmtunas this year. A lot of songs at the top end that I can’t really see finishing so well. WAAX, Trophy Eyes and Luca Brasi will drop a bit I imagine (Anything Near Conviction dropped around 60 spots from its prediction a couple of years ago). I can’t really see DZ Deathrays doing so well, and I think Ruby Fields won’t be top 3 by the end. Post Malone and Drake will jump pretty high their current spots I think.

With the amount of fake votes popping up on social media, I think they’ll be a fair difference between the prediction and the final count.

the info was from someones count, not mine, but its not on internet

I think by the end warmtunas will be accurate (once 3-4% total votes counted) but I agree there seems to be more anomalies than usual that will be weeded out slowly. just need to be wary of that before dropping big money on anything.

That labrador Wax song I listened to it and thought maybe all their friends just posted votes at the start, dont know how that was top 5 at one stage. drifting down now...
 

NotAMagpieBogan

Premiership Player
Joined
Mar 17, 2014
Posts
3,661
Likes
3,210
Location
Vic
AFL Club
Collingwood
#84
the info was from someones count, not mine, but its not on internet

I think by the end warmtunas will be accurate (once 3-4% total votes counted) but I agree there seems to be more anomalies than usual that will be weeded out slowly. just need to be wary of that before dropping big money on anything.

That labrador Wax song I listened to it and thought maybe all their friends just posted votes at the start, dont know how that was top 5 at one stage. drifting down now...
Any chance for a link to the other count?
 

(Log in to remove this ad.)

TheJanuaryMan

All Australian
Joined
Jul 29, 2009
Posts
880
Likes
631
Location
Melbourne
AFL Club
Brisbane Lions
#92
ok thanks.

I have still been nibbling at Confidence @ $1.85. looks like it will trend into $1.50 with Beteasy leading the way in price shortening
At $1.80, the value is gone. I've taken 3 songs and will only add a fourth if there is a significant lead from another outlet apart from Warm Tunas
 

jack 23

Senior List
Joined
Apr 22, 2017
Posts
248
Likes
89
AFL Club
Geelong
#94
Where are you getting 101-200 data from? Is it your own?

I don’t really have that much faith in Warmtunas this year. A lot of songs at the top end that I can’t really see finishing so well. WAAX, Trophy Eyes and Luca Brasi will drop a bit I imagine (Anything Near Conviction dropped around 60 spots from its prediction a couple of years ago). I can’t really see DZ Deathrays doing so well, and I think Ruby Fields won’t be top 3 by the end. Post Malone and Drake will jump pretty high their current spots I think.

With the amount of fake votes popping up on social media, I think they’ll be a fair difference between the prediction and the final count.

I think the main reason for this now is direct message submission of votes to warm tunas. it creates a bias unlike other years. it will be the reason why this count is the least accurate. I think it was a bad idea.
 

jack 23

Senior List
Joined
Apr 22, 2017
Posts
248
Likes
89
AFL Club
Geelong
#96
This is at $5 now. I definitely think it will drop out of the 10, it's very good value.
even Losing it @$8 is value to me. I dont believe it will finish 11-20, but at those odds and based on the numbers its worth a nibble. threw $10 on it. makes the countdown more fun

anything from position 4-10 statistically isnt a lock in the top 10 as they're all so close.

Sportsbet BYO is up with 1 market. its good value too. Wafia @ $3.30 IMO this should be $1.90 odds, so its value.
 

NotAMagpieBogan

Premiership Player
Joined
Mar 17, 2014
Posts
3,661
Likes
3,210
Location
Vic
AFL Club
Collingwood
#97
Annoying that Boogie by Brockhampton isn’t a choice for the 11-20. New Orleans is available, and according to Warm Tunas, isn’t currently in the 100, while Boogie is in the low 30s.
 
Top Bottom