Triple J Hottest 100 - 2019

FallingLiefs

Brownlow Medallist
Joined
Jan 30, 2013
Posts
10,624
Likes
11,346
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
no real surprise there, past polling history and indie turned pop songs always poll extremely well with the casual JJJ listener. Dean Lewis will also well outpoll the warmtunas.

Waves didn't go too well a few years back but took forever to get consistent plays on JJJ.
 

(Log in to remove this ad.)

Joined
Oct 2, 2013
Posts
42
Likes
21
AFL Club
Brisbane Lions
Dean Lewis is a riddle this year. He was short in early markets for 2017 and he wasn’t even close (lose my mind was 103 and need you know was 195). I don’t think Waves made the 200...maybe it wasn’t on the voting list. What you are saying actually
Makes sense .... but I’m not sure if it will play out that way.
 

NotAMagpieBogan

Premiership Player
Joined
Mar 17, 2014
Posts
3,661
Likes
3,210
Location
Vic
AFL Club
Collingwood
That might give those who were going big on God’s Plan V Mantra a little less confidence. Very interesting to see the differences.

Edit: It would be interesting to see where he gets his votes from compared to Warmtunas. This count is looking far more commercial radio than Warmtunas. A lot more Drake, Vance Joy and Amy Shark than what we’re seeing on Warmtunas.

Every year there seems to be one artist or group that hinder themselves by having their voting be so spread out over multiple songs. Brockhampton have taken that spot this year. A heap of songs in the 101-200 but only the one song looking likely to make it.
 
Last edited:

jack 23

Senior List
Joined
Apr 22, 2017
Posts
248
Likes
89
AFL Club
Geelong
where does his data come from? must use a different source. facebook? the swing in favour of some songs is incredible. Id still trust warm tunas over this though.

still happy with mantra to beat gods plan. free money $$$. Gods plan wont be top 20.
 

ronpingwins

Club Legend
Joined
Apr 1, 2013
Posts
1,325
Likes
2,342
AFL Club
West Coast
That might give those who were going big on God’s Plan V Mantra a little less confidence. Very interesting to see the differences.

Edit: It would be interesting to see where he gets his votes from compared to Warmtunas. This count is looking far more commercial radio than Warmtunas. A lot more Drake, Vance Joy and Amy Shark than what we’re seeing on Warmtunas.

Every year there seems to be one artist or group that hinder themselves by having their voting be so spread out over multiple songs. Brockhampton have taken that spot this year. A heap of songs in the 101-200 but only the one song looking likely to make it.
Dean Lewis a massive boost too. He's probably including Facebook. Surprised 1999 WILDFIRE isn't higher, genuinely thought that would be top 50
 

ronpingwins

Club Legend
Joined
Apr 1, 2013
Posts
1,325
Likes
2,342
AFL Club
West Coast
where does his data come from? must use a different source. facebook? the swing in favour of some songs is incredible. Id still trust warm tunas over this though.

still happy with mantra to beat gods plan. free money $$$. Gods plan wont be top 20.
Nice for What seemed to be polling a lot better than God's plan from what I'd seen, surprised to see it change in this count.
 

jack 23

Senior List
Joined
Apr 22, 2017
Posts
248
Likes
89
AFL Club
Geelong
Nice for What seemed to be polling a lot better than God's plan from what I'd seen, surprised to see it change in this count.
same, I hardly ever see any gods plan votes. I check instagram feeds more than Id like to admit in the lead up to this event. i dont believe it is in the 30s. or beating Vera Blue Pretty girls. happy to be proven wrong just dont think it will do this well.
 

(Log in to remove this ad.)

Joined
Oct 2, 2013
Posts
42
Likes
21
AFL Club
Brisbane Lions
Hilltop Hoods at 23 and 26 is interesting to me. I requested a head to head market for those two songs (Clark Griswold vs Leave me Lonely) and they politely turned me down. I was pretty confident they would have Clark Griswold as favourite, and I was pretty confident Leave me Lonely would be the winner.

Beteasy have Leave me Lonely (top ten finish) at $26 and I nibbled that. I don't actually think it will get into the top ten but I do think it's a song that will outperform the expectations on Tuna....and its a song with timing and momentum heading into the voting weeks. It will probably finish 11th or 12th and make me spill my beer :)
 

jack 23

Senior List
Joined
Apr 22, 2017
Posts
248
Likes
89
AFL Club
Geelong
Hilltop Hoods at 23 and 26 is interesting to me. I requested a head to head market for those two songs (Clark Griswold vs Leave me Lonely) and they politely turned me down. I was pretty confident they would have Clark Griswold as favourite, and I was pretty confident Leave me Lonely would be the winner.

Beteasy have Leave me Lonely (top ten finish) at $26 and I nibbled that. I don't actually think it will get into the top ten but I do think it's a song that will outperform the expectations on Tuna....and its a song with timing and momentum heading into the voting weeks. It will probably finish 11th or 12th and make me spill my beer :)
did they actually turn you down? my requests were sent up for them to look at, dont know what happens next if anything
 
Joined
Oct 2, 2013
Posts
42
Likes
21
AFL Club
Brisbane Lions
d they actually turn you down? my requests were sent up for them to look at, dont know what happens next if anything
Their response is below:

Thanks mate - Appreciate it! We've heard back from our traders who have said that unfortunately we won't be offering any head-to-head markets for this, though they have added Leave Me Lonely to the Outright Winner market now if you'd like to have a bet on either selections. Enjoy your day! Cheers, SB
 
Joined
Oct 2, 2013
Posts
42
Likes
21
AFL Club
Brisbane Lions
It's worth looking at the discrepancies between Warm Tunas and the result from 2017....to see if you can glean any kind of patterns. I've listed a few where Tuna got it 'most wrong'. The further you go down the list the larger the error needs to be for me to consider it 'most wrong'.

* Deepest Sighs - Gang of Youths (Tuna 2: result 5)
* Chateau - The Stoners (Tuna 6: result 3)
* Go Bang - Pnau (Tuna 5: result 7)
* Sweet - Brockhampton (Tuna 7: result 11)
* Green Light - Lorde (Tuna 8: result 6)
* Young Dumb and Rich - Khalid (Tuna 24: result 13)
* Homemade Dynamite - Lorde (Tuna 30; result 14)
* Rockstar - Post Malone (Tuna 86: result 24)
* Feel it Still - Portugal the Country (Tuna 39: result 26)

It's a bit harsh to call these predictions wrong if they are the worst of them...he's not that far off really. But this is what I take from those results:

Popular crossover songs by international artists do much better than predicted (Khalid, Post Malone, Portugal the Man)
Popular JJJ songs by international artists that didn't crossover to the mainstream so much did slightly worse than predicted (ie Sweet)
Popular crossover songs by local artists do slightly better than predicted (Lorde claimed as a local, Angus and Julia....Pnau is the anomaly here that surprised me on the day)

Therefore...I'm leaping to the conclusion that Drake (Gods Plan, Sicko Mode, Nice for what) will be quite a bit higher, and that songs by Amy Shark, Dean Lewis and Hilltop Hoods will be a little bit higher.

Last year I was pretty confident that Let me Down Easy would beat The Deepest Sighs and backed it heavily in head to heads even though it was the outsider. My logic was that Let me Down Easy was the crossover hit that got airplay on other stations. Perhaps it was dumb luck...but I'll take it.
 
Last edited:
Joined
Apr 1, 2013
Posts
1,325
Likes
2,342
AFL Club
West Coast
It's worth looking at the discrepancies between Warm Tunas and the result from 2017....to see if you can glean any kind of patterns. I've listed a few where Tuna got it 'most wrong'. The further you go down the list the larger the error needs to be for me to consider it 'most wrong'.

* Deepest Sighs - Gang of Youths (Tuna 2: result 5)
* Chateau - The Stoners (Tuna 6: result 3)
* Go Bang - Pnau (Tuna 5: result 7)
* Sweet - Brockhampton (Tuna 7: result 11)
* Green Light - Lorde (Tuna 8: result 6)
* Young Dumb and Rich - Khalid (Tuna 24: result 13)
* Homemade Dynamite - Lorde (Tuna 30; result 14)
* Rockstar - Post Malone (Tuna 86: result 24)
* Feel it Still - Portugal the Country (Tuna 39: result 26)

It's a bit harsh to call this predictions wrong if they are the worst of them...he's not that far off really. But this is what I take from those results:

Popular crossover songs by international artists do much better than predicted (Khalid, Post Malone, Portugal the Man)
Popular JJJ songs by international artists that didn't crossover to the mainstream so much did slightly worse than predicted (ie Sweet)
Popular crossover songs by local artists do slightly better than predicted (Lorde claimed as a local, Angus and Julia....Pnau is the anomaly here that surprised me on the day)

Therefore...I'm leaping to the conclusion that Drake (Gods Plan, Sicko Mode, Nice for what) will be quite a bit higher, and that songs by Amy Shark, Dean Lewis and Hilltop Hoods will be a little bit higher.

Last year I was pretty confident that Let me Down Easy would beat The Deepest Sighs and backed it heavily in head to heads even though it was the outsider. My logic was that Let me Down Easy was the crossover hit that got airplay on other stations. Perhaps it was dumb luck...but I'll take it.
Lol at Portugal the country. Good post, I've been looking at doing something based on this to remove the bias/outliers. Based on the last couple of years, in the top 70 you can give a boost of about 20-35% to the warm tuna votes of crossover artists depending on their popularity. A certain kind of rock song and other lower profile artists can drop about 10-30% as well, Camp Cope and Alex Lahey types dropped pretty significantly from the 20's last year. Based on the differences of the last few years, Amy Shark should be clear top 3 and Dean Lewis still makes top 5. The Rubens Never Ever is still a sneaky chance for top 10 as that was all over commercial radio, that's $6 at beteasy.
 

jack 23

Senior List
Joined
Apr 22, 2017
Posts
248
Likes
89
AFL Club
Geelong
so these songs like mallrat groceries, wafia im good, skeggs up in the clouds, are very likely to slide and maybe even out of the top 10...

I think position 4-18 are all very close and there will be a fair bit of movement between predicted and actual result.

What does this mean for This is America which could possibly poll +20-30% higher than predicted? and Confidence which is local but did not get much mainstream radio play -10-30%

interesting...
 
Joined
Oct 2, 2013
Posts
42
Likes
21
AFL Club
Brisbane Lions
The Rubens are interesting. There's a point where former JJJ darlings that have crossed over are deemed by the JJJliterati to have crossed too far. Example that springs to mind is Lanterns by Birds of Tokyo. That said, I don't think The Rubens are in Birds of Tokyo territory yet so you could be right.

As the only nutjob at my annual triple J party that thought Hoops would be number 1 back in the day I salute you. :)
 
Joined
Jan 7, 2019
Posts
21
Likes
9
AFL Club
Sydney
I've been recently capped a lot harder on sportsbet, haven't even made any money this year yet.. shame I'll have tiny max bets on byos. Has happened before but got lifted for some reason. Not sure if it'll crack down on you fellas too, keep an eye on it. Might be because I put a few k down triggering a red flag.
Looking at the bean counters, wouldn't surprise me if Amy cracks the top 2, a 40% increase because it's semi mainstream/local wouldn't shock me
 
Joined
Apr 1, 2013
Posts
1,325
Likes
2,342
AFL Club
West Coast
so these songs like mallrat groceries, wafia im good, skeggs up in the clouds, are very likely to slide and maybe even out of the top 10...

I think position 4-18 are all very close and there will be a fair bit of movement between predicted and actual result.

What does this mean for This is America which could possibly poll +20-30% higher than predicted? and Confidence which is local but did not get much mainstream radio play -10-30%

interesting...
Think Wafia is safe but some could slip out, I think Mantra and Like People are more vulnerable though so there may not be that many changes but it will be tight.

I don't think non-offensive stuff like Confidence loses votes necessarily, it's more females with guitars and some harder stuff like Mantra/The Amity Affliction/Architects that fare badly. Even Nothing but Thieves dropped about 30% last year. Hopefully Gambino doesn't poll too well, it's possibly a similar scenario to Hoops vs King Kunta? That was neck and neck heading into the day.
 
Top Bottom