Triple J Hottest 100 - 2019

[ye olde mole]

DZ Deathrays remind me of Violent Soho....similar sound...same town.

Viceroy was predicted by Tuna at number 8 and ended up 14.

Smith St Band was always higher on Tunas than reality too.

 

[jack 23]

Confidence with 25% more votes than 2nd spot. can it be beaten from here?

Ocean Alley playing big pineapple this weekend too so it might be enough to seal the win.

 

[jack 23]

TIA now $3.75 on Beteasy.

If you think Confidence or TIA are sure to win then bet on both and lock in a 23% ROI. $1.23 for Confidence or TIA to win.

Otherwise back one only and just use the other to cover your losses. 35% ROI or break even. Not bad... ?

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

Musicfeeds has just run a story about Bean Counters and their method of counting votes.

https://musicfeeds.com.au/news/hottest-100-vote-tracker-bean-counters-100-predict-countdown/

 

[Liljam]

If anyone else maxed out wafia to beat Dean @3:30 you can lock in a safe win or cover bet with Dean @2:10 now.

 

[jack 23]

If anyone else maxed out wafia to beat Dean @3:30 you can lock in a safe win or cover bet with Dean @2:10 now.

Im sticking with Wafia. Dont think Dean Lewis is going well in polling.

 

[Liljam]

The Bean Counters top 200 after 27,000 votes counted.

View attachment 602918View attachment 602919View attachment 602920View attachment 602921View attachment 602922

Song 178, bring me the horizon was released 2015. Could be a sign of things being not too accurate idk.

 

[jack 23]

Song 178, bring me the horizon was released 2015. Could be a sign of things being not too accurate idk.

I think it will be full of errors and counting a lot of fake + repeated votes.

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

The guy at warmtunas must have gone through and deleted all the fake votes. Confidence was on 640 votes yesterday. A lot of other songs have jumped places as well in the top 20.

 

[jack 23]

bit of a reshuffle. doesnt change anything we already assumed but made things a lot tighter.

I think TIA odds will shorten again, may be last chance to get $3.50+

 

[jack 23]

Kian waiting $3.50 and DZ deathrays $5 11-20 look like OK bets after the reshuffle. worth a nibble.

 

[ronpingwins]

What we already suspected, about 60 fake votes to some songs. Confidence has been steadily outpolling TIA since regardless, but top 10 is pretty tight now.

Kian waiting $3.50 and DZ deathrays $5 11-20 look like OK bets after the reshuffle. worth a nibble.

DZ is still great value, think it's more likely to drop into 20's than stay in top 10. Kian is an interesting one, played a lot on commercial radio so will be lumped in with a lot of Amy Shark/Dean Lewis votes. $6 for top 10 on beteasy, 11-20 is more likely but would be surprised if it drops into 20's.

 

[ronpingwins]

Song 178, bring me the horizon was released 2015. Could be a sign of things being not too accurate idk.

I think it is an Alex the Astronaut song that was released this year. Seems a really odd mistake to make though if he's doing it manually.

 

[jack 23]

Why do these Dickheads post fake votes for the wrong songs every year. I'm almost certain it's a betting agenda but it hasn't helped from a betting perspective at all. Amateurs. I bet they don't even know where to put their money now. I hope it's no one on here because it's must be a lot of effort to fail again same as 2 years ago

 

[notarobot]

Why do these Dickheads post fake votes for the wrong songs every year. I'm almost certain it's a betting agenda but it hasn't helped from a betting perspective at all. Amateurs. I bet they don't even know where to put their money now. I hope it's no one on here because it's must be a lot of effort to fail again same as 2 years ago

I don’t think it’s punters. Just trolls trying to mess with warm tunas imo or boosting songs they like. The guy that runs it’s name is Whyte and the original batch of fake accounts had “white” type names such as Casper and Arian.

Anyone that had won big knows your account gets locked down and then you have to bet through someone else which is too much hassle to post fake votes for betting imo. All of the top songs had decent odds for betting anyway before “manipulation.” Or it could be someone at triple j .

 

[NotAMagpieBogan]

Scream Whole is a massive loser from the reshuffle, going from the 25-35 range, down to the 70s.

My other only song with a chance of polling, Talking Straight by Rolling Blackouts Coastal Fever, has dropped out

 

[jack 23]

the recent warm tuna update involved deleting facebook votes as there was a strong bias in them (bias compared to what control though?? not sure)
improving the de-duplicate algorithm
and adding some hashtags #tripplej #tripplejhottest100 with the typos etc.

 

[thewitness]

Hey all.
Checking out the betting page for the first time this year.
Just some stats that you might find interesting from last year to compare the benefits of Warm Tunas vs Bean Counters.

Predictions
Warm Tunas
83 out of 100 in.
45 correct within 10 places.
4 exactly correct.
8 out of the Top 10, missing "Lay It On Me" predicted #15 & "What Can I Do If The Fire Goes Out" predicted #13.

Bean Counters
85 out of 100 in.
48 correct within 10 places.
5 exactly correct.
8 out of the Top 10, missing "Lay It On Me" predicted #18 & "What Can I Do If The Fire Goes Out" predicted #15.

Loofrundry
87 out of 100 in.
51 correct within 10 places.
4 exactly correct.
9 out of the Top 10, missing "Lay It On Me" predicted #15.

DaRenegade
80 out of 100 in.
44 correct within 10 places.
9 exactly correct.
8 out of the Top 10, missing "Lay It On Me" predicted #18 & "Go Bang" predicted #11.

Me
81 out of 100 in.
37 correct within 10 places.
2 exactly correct.
9 out of the Top 10, missing "Lay It On Me" predicted #11.

 

[ronpingwins]

Hey all.
Checking out the betting page for the first time this year.
Just some stats that you might find interesting from last year to compare the benefits of Warm Tunas vs Bean Counters.

Predictions
Warm Tunas
83 out of 100 in.
45 correct within 10 places.
4 exactly correct.
8 out of the Top 10, missing "Lay It On Me" predicted #15 & "What Can I Do If The Fire Goes Out" predicted #13.

Bean Counters
85 out of 100 in.
48 correct within 10 places.
5 exactly correct.
8 out of the Top 10, missing "Lay It On Me" predicted #18 & "What Can I Do If The Fire Goes Out" predicted #15.

Loofrundry
87 out of 100 in.
51 correct within 10 places.
4 exactly correct.
9 out of the Top 10, missing "Lay It On Me" predicted #15.

DaRenegade
80 out of 100 in.
44 correct within 10 places.
9 exactly correct.
8 out of the Top 10, missing "Lay It On Me" predicted #18 & "Go Bang" predicted #11.

Me
81 out of 100 in.
37 correct within 10 places.
2 exactly correct.
9 out of the Top 10, missing "Lay It On Me" predicted #11.

Nice, all got reasonably similar results, you were the closest to getting the top 10 right. Are you doing a count this year? What's your opinion on Confidence vs TIA, does Confidence look the goods or are you expecting a large skew towards TIA? How much of a lead at the top does a top song need to be safe based on your past data?

 

[ronpingwins]

Sportsbet have taken head to heads down , could be offering more markets soon?

 

[Cuzz09]

Top 5

I said hi
Be alright

On [device_name] using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[thewitness]

Nice, all got reasonably similar results, you were the closest to getting the top 10 right. Are you doing a count this year? What's your opinion on Confidence vs TIA, does Confidence look the goods or are you expecting a large skew towards TIA? How much of a lead at the top does a top song need to be safe based on your past data?

I'm not doing my own count this year, I haven't actually done one for the last 2 years. I was just taking Loofrundry's data and applying my own bias records that I had built up over the past 10 countdowns.
As Loofrundry isn't doing a count this year, I probably won't bother with a prediction of my own either.

Today was the first time I've looked at anybodies counts (warm tunas) so I'm yet to form an opinion on TIA vs Confidence (and I'm biased towards Confidence because I like the song). I need to check my Ocean Alley and Childish Gambino bias stats that I don't have with me today. Also I don't know the percentage of vote numbers. I also worry about these huge numbers counted from a single platform. The bias caused by only tracking Instagram I feel is significant and the more votes they count the stronger that bias becomes.
As a pretty poor year with no distinct stand out songs, it feels a lot like the 2013 count, where my count had "Do You Wanna Know" coming out on top. So with that in mind I wouldn't be ruling out "I Said Hi" for #1.

 

[jack 23]

https://100warmtunas.com/news/

good info on warmtuna count changes and explains the bias from facebook votes which may not have been fake votes but he noticed a bias coming in from the data source.

 

[ronpingwins]

I'm not doing my own count this year, I haven't actually done one for the last 2 years. I was just taking Loofrundry's data and applying my own bias records that I had built up over the past 10 countdowns.
As Loofrundry isn't doing a count this year, I probably won't bother with a prediction of my own either.

Today was the first time I've looked at anybodies counts (warm tunas) so I'm yet to form an opinion on TIA vs Confidence (and I'm biased towards Confidence because I like the song). I need to check my Ocean Alley and Childish Gambino bias stats that I don't have with me today. Also I don't know the percentage of vote numbers. I also worry about these huge numbers counted from a single platform. The bias caused by only tracking Instagram I feel is significant and the more votes they count the stronger that bias becomes.
As a pretty poor year with no distinct stand out songs, it feels a lot like the 2013 count, where my count had "Do You Wanna Know" coming out on top. So with that in mind I wouldn't be ruling out "I Said Hi" for #1.

2013 had Royals, Get Lucky and even Riptide, along with AM. That sounds like a massive year. What are your bias stats exactly? I'm trying to do something similar in terms of adjusting votes, massive pop songs like I said hi and be alright should get about a 40% boost I think? Yeah wouldn't discount Amy Shark yet. Hard to tell whether Gambino will get that much of a boost as it wasn't played regularly on commercial radio.

 

[ronpingwins]

Scream Whole is a massive loser from the reshuffle, going from the 25-35 range, down to the 70s.

My other only song with a chance of polling, Talking Straight by Rolling Blackouts Coastal Fever, has dropped out

Loved Talking Straight, voted for Mainland as well, disappointing it looks like neither probably make it.