yep we made the same conclusion as you with that tally room information.
Triple J Hottest 100 - 2020
- Thread starter NotAMagpieBogan
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Frankth3tank
Rookie
- Jan 20, 2020
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1%+ is still statistically significant so I think the concern should still be on the bias, not on the decreasing sample size. In the past where we’ve seen upsets, 1 and 2 have been <2% apart. Heat Waves is heading to >4%. I think the fat lady is singing and it’ll start <$1.50...
ye olde mole
Senior List
- Oct 2, 2013
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I can no longer place bets with sportsbet, but it looks like the window has closed on that golden period where you could make some fair coin out of this event.
The top ten market is particularly bad. It's still interesting though.
The top ten market is particularly bad. It's still interesting though.
- Moderator
- #155
RIP to the good old days. 2018, what a year it was. Stupidly good odds on nearly every market; here is just a few examples. $61! They learnt their lesson to not offer BYO bets once they realised the punters knew more than the traders. Fun while it lasted.
- Apr 1, 2013
- 2,138
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- West Coast
Those odds were insane, they really rated Big Shaq for some reason. I remember being on realistic top 10 bets at massive odds, I think it was a Vera Blue song that was still $51 days out from the count despite being #11 on tunas. There was also one where it was for 4 or 5 songs to finish 'lower than #10' that was never going to happen but was still at $20. There were a few I had to argue hard on the livechat afterwards to actually get paid out.
ye olde mole
Senior List
- Oct 2, 2013
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Nice memories Gibbsy...I backed those three myself, and from memory I think they also paid out on 6 Australian artists in the top ten (because Gang of Youths had 3 in the top ten).
I fondly recall cracking a beer when Mans Not Hot bobbed up at number 51.
And a few more more beers when Mended by Vera Blue made the top 30.
I also remember dancing like I'd had too many beers when Young, Dumb and Broke bobbed up at 13 - it was the last song in a list of songs I needed to miss the top ten at some truly ridiculous price like $81.
What a time to be alive
- Moderator
- #158
Yeah that was "Regular Touch" I think, I'm pretty sure I was on it as well, got fairly close from memory but just missed. But it should have been a $2.50 shout not a $51 shout. That was the funny thing.
The Vera Blue one had firmed into $2.20 by the day of the count. They had no idea, early days.
Great memories. probably what made me keep coming back year after year.
in Brownlow medal this year we had a few mistake odd BYOS that were $20+ that hit so there’s still some hope in other events
But looks like they’ve clued on for hottest 100.
still have neds and pointsbet and others to offer some more markets yet so still some hope remains
in Brownlow medal this year we had a few mistake odd BYOS that were $20+ that hit so there’s still some hope in other events
But looks like they’ve clued on for hottest 100.
still have neds and pointsbet and others to offer some more markets yet so still some hope remains
- Thread starter
- #161
Are the top 3, top 5 and top 10 same market multis new for this year? Don’t recall them in the last few. I assume the multi aspect is why they’ve cut the prices so much.
- Moderator
- #162
Correct. But even if you were to multi up their predicted top 10 all in a row you would get the stunning odds of $3.93.
- Thread starter
- #163
The only decent chance for top 10 outside of the $1 to $2 range is Therefore I Am but even then it’s only at $2.50 so hardly worth it.
ye olde mole
Senior List
- Oct 2, 2013
- 171
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You Should be Sad by Halsey is a 'surprise' candidate for top ten. It's not a song I like, but I can see it getting more votes than it deserves.
$3 for top ten isn't terrible.
$3 for top ten isn't terrible.
I think "On Our Own" @$2.75 is a good chance to sneak into the back end of the Top 10.
- Moderator
- #166
Agreed, particularly given how much "Robbery" exceeded expectations last year. I just can't get excited about $2.75 odds though, it means the outlays have to be pretty significant to have any chance of making decent coin and then the risk becomes too great.
Sportsbet
Australia's Favourite Bookie
- Oct 12, 2020
- 287
- 203
- AFL Club
- Sydney
- Banned
- #167
Even I'm disappointed at these markets. Not sure why the multis for top 3/5/10 are separated - so you can't multi a top 3 selection with a top 10 selection. That's why the total multi odds are so disappointing. Also cannot multi head to heads or group betting. It's cowardly I admit but you only have yourselves to blame.
Sportsbet
Australia's Favourite Bookie
- Oct 12, 2020
- 287
- 203
- AFL Club
- Sydney
- Banned
- #170
You guys can't just continue to fleece us for years and keep expecting us to cop it on the chin. We probably went too far overcorrecting this year but something had to be done as we don't take kindly to punters making easy money from badly misjudged odds on our part. Most of you should have got good value for Heat Waves a while ago so it should all hopefully work out well for you.
Syd Sydneyson
Draftee
- Sep 27, 2016
- 10
- 13
- AFL Club
- Sydney
It’s not the customers fault if you offer misjudged odds
- Moderator
- #172
“Sportsbet” also aren’t posting on bigfooty in monthly racing threads either. It’s an amusing idea but this poster can’t be a representative of the business.
- Moderator
- #173
This count is no foregone conclusion.
Less than 350 votes between #1 and #2 currently.
www.abc.net.au
Less than 350 votes between #1 and #2 currently.
Hottest 100 goss: only a few votes separate #1 & #2 in the countdown! - triple j
Looks like we've got an insider tiebreaker on our hands ahead of voting closing Monday.
Schulzenfest
TheBrownDog
This count is no foregone conclusion.
Less than 350 votes between #1 and #2 currently.
Hottest 100 goss: only a few votes separate #1 & #2 in the countdown! - triple j
Looks like we've got an insider tiebreaker on our hands ahead of voting closing Monday.
Interesting.
Almost makes me think it's worth throwing some money on Cherub. Sitting 2nd on Warm Tunas but $7 odds on Sportsbet.
- Moderator
- #175
I'm not so certain that it'd be Cherub at #2 however. I know this is BPM's biggest shot at taking it out, but their songs have been typically overrated on Warm Tunas in the past.
Can anyone who has an idea of total vote numbers at this stage (based on that Warm Tunas graph) perhaps calculate what 350 votes means right now in terms of percentage and how significant it is?
