Triple J Hottest 100 - 2020

[ye olde mole]

I’ve found another mad roughie for top ten (and I admit these are mad...but I’m looking for something at odds here).

righteous by JuiceWrld might go better than expected, and is $10 for top ten. Fits the Bill for the sort of song that is under represented on warm tunas, and my kids and their friends talk about him frequently.

the search for value is a struggle though - I won’t lie to you

 

[Sportsbet]

It’s not the customers fault if you offer misjudged odds

I know that but do you expect us to just keep offering these misjudged odds and eating the cost? Eventually we cottoned on and all good things come to an end, but at least you guys enjoyed a good few years. Like I said earlier, I would have liked less restrictions on multis but maybe next year.

 

[Frankth3tank]

I'm not so certain that it'd be Cherub at #2 however. I know this is BPM's biggest shot at taking it out, but their songs have been typically overrated on Warm Tunas in the past.

Can anyone who has an idea of total vote numbers at this stage (based on that Warm Tunas graph) perhaps calculate what 350 votes means right now in terms of percentage and how significant it is?

Somewhere between 0.1% and 0.15% assuming total votes similar to 2029 count. So stuff all. Will be the biggest incorrect prediction on WTs ever if they’re not just trying to drum up interest.

 

[Frankth3tank]

Somewhere between 0.1% and 0.15% assuming total votes similar to 2029 count. So stuff all. Will be the biggest incorrect prediction on WTs ever if they’re not just trying to drum up interest.

2019*

 

[RedmanWasHere]

Votes closing on Monday.

I better get my arse into gear.

And I’m only at B.

 

[jack1231]

Today’s news is a bit of a game changer.... pretty significant. Will hedge a lot of my larger profits out now sadly.

I read into it as follows -

- 2nd is gaining on 1st. Because last week they announced 5th and 6th were kinda close which was a bit of a nothing announcement. Surely they would’ve mentioned this

- They haven’t swapped positions yet or that would’ve been announced, they’ve announced that in the past.

- if 2nd has caught up to 1st with this long left it’s likely it will overtake it IMO only. Still probably 30% of all votes to come in over the final 3 days.

just my thoughts.

so what 2 songs are they? To me heatwaves has to be one of them.... the second song I don’t know but have 3 suspects

 

[Syd Sydneyson]

I know that but do you expect us to just keep offering these misjudged odds and eating the cost?

Yes. Sportsbet makes close to $1 billion revenue a year. I’m sure they will survive if Syd makes $50 profit on a highly restricted head to head market that they got the wrong way around.

 

[ronpingwins]

That information is surprising, tough to know what to make of it. I think Heat Waves has to be one of the 2 songs, but I can see realistic scenarios with Cherub, Booster Seat and The Difference as well, I think Cherub is the most likely but not with any confidence. Booster Seat may have had all the early votes to establish a massive lead and is only now just being closed in, and Flume obviously underpolls publicly. Last year Billie overtook Flume and Mallrat overtook Dance Monkey, so it might not be a casual listener voting in late necessarily.

Not sure if it means anything, but Glass Animals are advertising for votes as much as the others and are specifically encouraging votes for Heat Waves which are getting a lot of reactions on Facebook. Heat Waves has also kept spiking each week in the aria charts and hit #22 last week, looking at the Spotify top 50 it's probably going higher this week, if that means anything.

 

[jack1231]

Is it possible flume had an early lead again and heatwaves is Finally reeling it in?

Spacey Jane won the album poll, is it possible they posted a huge lead early from die hard fans and are being reeled in now by heatwaves? Or vice versa.

Very unexpected anyway given the lead heatwaves had on warm tunas. 35% more votes than the next song.....

 

[Liljam]

Don't forget to vote for heatwaves... bring it home

 

[Sportsbet]

Yes. Sportsbet makes close to $1 billion revenue a year. I’m sure they will survive if Syd makes $50 profit on a highly restricted head to head market that they got the wrong way around.

It's not just you though Syd. There are some dedicated groups online that prey on this market and do a number on us when we stuff up - we don't take kindly to that. As I said, this year is a bit of an overreaction from our end just to wrestle back some control but I reckon next year we will offer more carrot to the punter.

 

[ronpingwins]

I’ve found another mad roughie for top ten (and I admit these are mad...but I’m looking for something at odds here).

righteous by JuiceWrld might go better than expected, and is $10 for top ten. Fits the Bill for the sort of song that is under represented on warm tunas, and my kids and their friends talk about him frequently.

the search for value is a struggle though - I won’t lie to you

This isn't a bad shout actually, he's been super popular this year and as you said, this kind of hip hop is what the kids are into and mass voting for, like Asap rocky nearly making top 10 a couple of years ago from about 50 and Travis Scott always jumping. It's in striking distance.

 

[JJJason]

It's not just you though Syd. There are some dedicated groups online that prey on this market and do a number on us when we stuff up - we don't take kindly to that. As I said, this year is a bit of an overreaction from our end just to wrestle back some control but I reckon next year we will offer more carrot to the punter.

This has got to be a joke haha. Imagine being a bookie and playing the victim..


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[thewitness]

Somewhere between 0.1% and 0.15% assuming total votes similar to 2029 count. So stuff all. Will be the biggest incorrect prediction on WTs ever if they’re not just trying to drum up interest.

2019 has to be the worst prediction ever. Bulls on Parade falling to 5th.

 

[Schulzenfest]

Not sure if it means anything, but Glass Animals are advertising for votes as much as the others and are specifically encouraging votes for Heat Waves which are getting a lot of reactions on Facebook.

Dave from Glass Animals posted on FB that he'll get a tattoo of Australia on his arse if Heat Waves finishes #1, so they definitely want it.

 

[Frankth3tank]

2019 has to be the worst prediction ever. Bulls on Parade falling to 5th.

yes, but it ended up <2% between 1 and 2 which we have seen in the past is too close to rely upon. Quite a few on here called Bad Guy on that basis. Never has a WT predicted 1st place with a lead greater than 2% failed to win, even if you go back to warmest100 site. So if it doesn’t win with what is heading toward a 5% lead it will be the death of relying on the site as an accurate #1 prediction for sure

 

[thewitness]

yes, but it ended up <2% between 1 and 2 which we have seen in the past is too close to rely upon. Quite a few on here called Bad Guy on that basis. Never has a WT predicted 1st place with a lead greater than 2% failed to win, even if you go back to warmest100 site. So if it doesn’t win with what is heading toward a 5% lead it will be the death of relying on the site as an accurate #1 prediction for sure

Dropping to 5th is the equivalent of being out by more than 5%. 16% to 11%.

 

[anabac]

It's not just you though Syd. There are some dedicated groups online that prey on this market and do a number on us when we stuff up - we don't take kindly to that. As I said, this year is a bit of an overreaction from our end just to wrestle back some control but I reckon next year we will offer more carrot to the punter.

How old are you? 15?

 

[Sportsbet]

How old are you? 15?

Did something I say upset you or are you just having a bad time on the punt? Don't take your frustration out on me...

 

[Leftyitis]

Any hope Olivia Rodrigo gets a mention. Have never bet on Triple J hottest 100 but feel this could poll well. Im gathering songs out for a longer period of time have a greater chance of being up there, or are they sort of forgotten?

 

[JJJason]

Any hope Olivia Rodrigo gets a mention. Have never bet on Triple J hottest 100 but feel this could poll well. Im gathering songs out for a longer period of time have a greater chance of being up there, or are they sort of forgotten?

Ineligible, released this month. Not a triple J sort anyway (Taylor Swift esque)


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Syd Sydneyson]

It's not just you though Syd. There are some dedicated groups online that prey on this market and do a number on us when we stuff up - we don't take kindly to that. As I said, this year is a bit of an overreaction from our end just to wrestle back some control but I reckon next year we will offer more carrot to the punter.

Will those carrots include removing restrictions from punters who can currently only bet 50 cent maximums on the markets?

 

[Sportsbet]

Will those carrots include removing restrictions from punters who can currently only bet 50 cent maximums on the markets?

50 cent maximums you say? It's hilarious how people overexaggerate how much they are limited just to show what a successful punter they are. Most of the people who claim they are severely restricted are probably just mugs who lose a lot.

 

[Schulzenfest]

50 cent maximums you say? It's hilarious how people overexaggerate how much they are limited just to show what a successful punter they are. Most of the people who claim they are severely restricted are probably just mugs who lose a lot.

m8 you're having a go at people for purportedly pretending to be slightly better gamblers than they are while you're literally sitting here pretending to be Sportsbet. Carn.

 

[Syd Sydneyson]

50 cent maximums you say? It's hilarious how people overexaggerate how much they are limited just to show what a successful punter they are. Most of the people who claim they are severely restricted are probably just mugs who lose a lot.

Not exaggerating anything. I just want to gamble on the hottest 100. If Sportsbet can’t handle people betting on these markets, they shouldn’t put them up.