Triple J Hottest 100 betting

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Didak_attack

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Sep 27, 2005
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Markets are starting to appear and can always try nab some sneaky value.

Have taken my first early spec bet on Feels like we only go backwards by tame impala $19 on sportsbet. Seems overs to me and would probably have it closer to elephant (~$8).

Little Talks could win but not interested in it at $1.70

Thrift shop is a lock for top 5 (Perfect release time, catchy/rude chorus) $2.75 is probably a good cover price and will be into equal favourite IMO.

Sweet nothing is another value pick for mine, hoping it may get out into double figures. Calvin Harris has been high in the countdown before and has not converted into an even bigger commercial presence (featuring Florence will only help)

Still waiting for top 3/5/10 etc to open before making many moves though.

Any one fancy anything at this stage?

Edit: If people could post as new markets get added it would be great help for everyone!
 
Thrift Shop will take #1. Popularity on mainstream here in Sydney at least (Nova, 2DayFM) will mean it will get plenty of fluff votes as well. Other songs don't have the mainstream popularity that Thift Shop has had.
 
Its Thrift Shop's to lose, but the betting market will sort that, stack everything into it's right order, and THEN open the exotic bets, leaving bugger all value in the market. Every year!
 

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Hey guys

I think this is the first year since knights of cydonia won that it really could be a number of songs to win. Thrift shop is getting a lot of commercial play but number ones usually have a good mix votes from music lovers and also commercial idiots. Gotye, Angus and Julia, Kings of Leon and Mumford and Sons have voters in both categories. Not sure how many triple j fans will be rushing out to vote for Thrift Shop. Not to say it won't win but i think it is way under the odds at 2.20 on Sportsbet (in from 2.70).

Don't count out Mumford and Sons again. Big supporter base here in Aus and a recent tour with many dates will help them with a lot of votes. Again the song played on both the J's and also commercial stations. Think $12 is very good odds for this.

As Dids said above Calvin Harris is also a very good chance. Recent countdowns show he has form to go high.

One I have backed at odds and think it is way way overs is Gold On The Ceiling by the Black Keys. Was $23 when markets came out and now in to $21. My rationale is:
- number 2 last year with lonely boy shows how popular the keys are out here
- a recent sell out tour with fantastic reviews will only strengthen this with voters keen to show their support
- the song has been played everywhere - J's, commercial, and even advertisements - it is well known
- will get J's voters and commercial voters
- in my opinion it is very similar in standard to lonely boy and the field this year isnt the quality of last year

I think Gold on the Ceiling should be around the 5-10 dollar mark rather than where it is at.
 
Juddy Blue Blue said:
Don't count out Mumford and Sons again. Big supporter base here in Aus and a recent tour with many dates will help them with a lot of votes. Again the song played on both the J's and also commercial stations. Think $12 is very good odds for this.
Click to expand...

Just had a little bit on this at $34 on Sportingbet if you're interested
 
loving the top 100, value everywhere. thrift shop wont win surely. Good song, but i'm taking a liking to tame impalas songs.
 
just saw this on facebook;

thought i'd give you guys a heads up!

Triple J Hottest 100 Betting​


Here is the analysis and below I will tell you how to make the most of it! ;)

Market: Group B
Pick: Feels Like We Only Go Backwards (Tame Impala)
Odds: $4.50
Agency: Sportingbet/Centrebet
Stake: 6

Market: On Top Down Under
Pick: Feels Like We Only Go Backwards - Tame Impala
Odds: $6.50
Agency: Sportingbet / Centrebet
Stake: 4

Market: Outright Winner
Pick: Feels Like We Only Go Backwards - Tame Impala
Odds: $15
Agency: Sportingbet/Centrebet
Stake: 2
Analysis:

Tame Impala have had this song out for just over 2 months now and its already a hit. Sportsbet have the song @ $7 to win. $4.50 to win the group without pretty much the top 6 favourites, this bet is of the highest quality. There is a danger in Icona Pop - who plays at Summadayze. However Tame Impala are playing at Pyramid rock!​
 
no point betting on this market now.. odds have been crunched for this song and theyre would be atleast 40 people on it
 

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Ended up betting on this market with sportingbet.com.au. Took Frank Ocean @ $5.50 because i reckon a lot of people will be voting for him and whilst i've never heard pyramids get airtime on jjj (because it goes for about 10 minutes) his album is extremly popular and anyone that listens to it enough times seems to have it as one of their 2 or 3 favourites (clear favourite for mine).
Also, whilst i dont think it is any certainty i reckon Genisis will be the major Grimes song, Sleepless or Holding on for Flume, obviously Thrift Shop for Macklemore and i dont think Brother or Follow the Sun will feature highly. I see promises as a real threat and will therfore will put something on that too especially @ $10, and i have absolutely no idea at all on the Django Django song.
Any opinions on this bet? I'm just hoping i'm not being biased as it's been my pick of the songs for this year.
  • Oblivion - Grimes
  • 2.50
  • Default - Django Django
  • 4.50
  • On Top - Flume
  • 5.50
  • Pyramids - Frank Ocean
  • 5.50
  • Brother - Thundamentals
  • 9.00
  • Follow The Sun - Xavier Rudd
  • 10.00
  • Promises - The Presets
  • 10.00
  • Cant Hold Us - Macklemore
  • 12.00
 
1. Oblivion
2. Defult
3. Promises

Wouldn't take Grimes at $2.50 personally but I would have taken the $4.50 when opened. Defult is a big danger but from what I've seen Grimes should get up.
 
I have been saying to anyone and everyone 2012 has been the worst year for music in a very long time, just looked at the betting markets, confirmed.
 
Why is this Flume idiot so popular? I just had a listen to his two nominations on YouTube and they were both god awful.

Gold on the Ceiling top 5 @ $4.50 looks like great value for the reasons outlined above. Black Keys have definitely crossed over to the mainstream which like or not, helps out a lot with the votes as more idiots realise voting for then listening to the hottest 100 (while getting blind of course) is by far the best way to spend Australia Day. I also reckon it's a way better song than Lonely Boy.

I reckon the bookies are spot on with the favourites - Thrift Shop has been #1 song on Spotify for ages and that Little Talks song is right behind it while having the benefit of being a bit folky (Little Lion Man, Big Jet Plane spring to mind when I hear it - but then so does slitting my wrists....). Both have had a tonne of play on commercial radio as well. I actually think Little talks is the pick of the two as if you look at Hottest 100 history there have been extremely few rap/hip-hop songs in the top 10 and none have won.

In fact now that I think about it, Thrift Shop is way unders for this very reason. The only non-Australian hip-hop act that has cracked the top-10 is Eminem with "Lose Yourself" in 2002, which had the benefit of a friggin' movie tie-in and still didn't win. Oh and they stole the sax riff from a Jay-Z song didn't they?
 
Thrift shops a big hit in clubs, pubs in melbourne. I honestly think it'll come down to that, little talks and feels like we only go backwards. Need a quinella market, would smash Feels like we only go backwards/little talks
 
Yeah, my money is on Feels Like We only Go Backwards, followed by Little Talks.
 
I'm down on:
1U Feels Like We Only Go Backwards vs Elephant @ $2.05 (now out to $2.30 I think :mad:) - came out later in the year which should help
1U Frank Ocean most tracks @ $2.50 - should win it with 4
0.25U Temper Trap most tracks @ $17 - should have 3 so if Frank only gets three would get a nice split pot (although Tame Impala should get three in as well)
0.25U Sweet Nothing to win it's group @ $10 (vs FLWOGB but still good value I reckon)

Seriously considering Grimes - Oblivion to win group @ $2, only challenge is from Django Django - Default but indie synth-pop chicks seem to do exceedingly well in the countdown lately.
 
d3ft said:
1U Frank Ocean most tracks @ $2.50 - should win it with 4
0.25U Temper Trap most tracks @ $17 - should have 3 so if Frank only gets three would get a nice split pot (although Tame Impala should get three in as well)

Seriously considering Grimes - Oblivion to win group @ $2, only challenge is from Django Django - Default but indie synth-pop chicks seem to do exceedingly well in the countdown lately.
Click to expand...


Flume has to be a massive danger for the most tracks doesn't he (pending my response from sportingbet about if hyperparadise will be counted as his.) Sleepless, Holdin' On and (if counted) Hyperparadise are 3 locks for him IMO and he probably has a big enough following to snag one more in. I actually see flume being more likely to get 4 than frank ocean, as big as frank ocean has been this year, i think flume has topped the popularity list and has had the album as a recent release so it will be fresher on peoples minds.

I will post the response I get from sportingbet when i receive it.

Also the group market with grimes and django django. It is certainly a 2 horse race and my search through different sources of votes actually would have quite few more for default than oblivion, i personally think oblivion will still beat it but probably worth staking 2:1 on oblivion:default to guarantee money.

Also agree with sweet nothing being enormous value in that group with FLWOGB
 
Didak_attack said:
Flume has to be a massive danger for the most tracks doesn't he (pending my response from sportingbet about if hyperparadise will be counted as his.) Sleepless, Holdin' On and (if counted) Hyperparadise are 3 locks for him IMO and he probably has a big enough following to snag one more in. I actually see flume being more likely to get 4 than frank ocean, as big as frank ocean has been this year, i think flume has topped the popularity list and has had the album as a recent release so it will be fresher on peoples minds.

I will post the response I get from sportingbet when i receive it.

Also the group market with grimes and django django. It is certainly a 2 horse race and my search through different sources of votes actually would have quite few more for default than oblivion, i personally think oblivion will still beat it but probably worth staking 2:1 on oblivion:default to guarantee money.

Also agree with sweet nothing being enormous value in that group with FLWOGB
Click to expand...


EDIT:
  • HyperParadise (Flume Remix) - Hermitude

    Will be counted as a hermitude selection, there goes my thoughts down the frain
 
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