Triple J Hottest 100 of the Decade

[jack 23]

Courtney Barnett with Pedestrian At Best and/or Avant Gardener.

90% hate her but she racked up votes with these songs because she has a niche market that love her.

Undoing could be vote splitting if people, like me, only put in one of her songs for variety in my top 10 even though I probably could have had 3.

did you choose your name after her song

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

Gooey - Glass Animals
Ocean Drive - Duke Dumont
Can’t Feel My Face - The Weeknd
Money - The Drums
Hayden James - Something About You

could make the top 100

 

[HeathySure]

Courtney Barnett with Pedestrian At Best and/or Avant Gardener.

90% hate her but she racked up votes with these songs because she has a niche market that love her.

Undoing could be vote splitting if people, like me, only put in one of her songs for variety in my top 10 even though I probably could have had 3.

bite your tongue! Courtney is great,,, is that where you got your name?

 

[notarobot]

Tunas numbers need shuffling but the list very strong, looks good to me.

Anyone want to have a crack at any songs not currently in the 100 a chance of making the top 30. Or sure things to make the count?

Songs not on the list the could jump up a lot:

When the party’s over

sunflower

rushing back

 

[AvantGardener]

did you choose your name after her song

bite your tongue! Courtney is great,,, is that where you got your name?

Yes

 

[iluvparis]

Not sure how others are voting but I really shortened it down to 1 vote per band, I think GoY will really get impacted there because hard to split LMDE and Magnolia.

Also would have had 212 50:1 to make the top 100.

This - I even went further down and voted Deepest Sighs as my GOY song for example.

 

[Frankth3tank]

so does that reason alone rule it out? Gonna be higher this year by the looks.

We have very limited historical data to work off, but in the 20 years in 2013 we can see two things:
7/10 come from top 5's in their respective years
1st was 1st in its year and 2nd was 3rd in its year
8/10 come from the first half of the period being voted on (saying something about the ageing of songs and reluctance to input from more recent years)

All of the top 10 on tunas are showing as the 1st half of the decade releases so that doesn't really rule any out, but only DIWK, TLIKTB, STIUTK, Let it happen and Breezeblocks were in the top 5 in their years of release, being 4th, 4th, 1st, 5th and 3rd respectively. The others were not in the top 10. Only one song made it into the 2013 count that was not in the top 10 in its respective year (that being Jeff Buckley Last Goodbye.

I agree that Tunas needs to be taken with a grain of salt and no one data point can be used conclusively, but in my opinion the winner will come from the top 5 of in its year of release and it will be in the top 10 on tunas. I struggle to see either data point being that far wrong or a change in popularity being that significant for a song. I'm waiting, watching and tracking for now, didn't get any crazy overs like others on here so would rather take the approach to make a call closer to the day.

I've also been running some analysis on past actual ranking vs predicted by artist and performance of artist on the day as a predictor of increase or decrease in votes for songs at the top end and there is definitely some strong correlation indicating you might be wise to to put bets on part way through the count. We saw Billie hold her early odds on the day right until Tones came in at 4th and this got me thinking...

 

[jack 23]

We have very limited historical data to work off, but in the 20 years in 2013 we can see two things:
7/10 come from top 5's in their respective years
1st was 1st in its year and 2nd was 3rd in its year
8/10 come from the first half of the period being voted on (saying something about the ageing of songs and reluctance to input from more recent years)

All of the top 10 on tunas are showing as the 1st half of the decade releases so that doesn't really rule any out, but only DIWK, TLIKTB, STIUTK, Let it happen and Breezeblocks were in the top 5 in their years of release, being 4th, 4th, 1st, 5th and 3rd respectively. The others were not in the top 10. Only one song made it into the 2013 count that was not in the top 10 in its respective year (that being Jeff Buckley Last Goodbye.

I agree that Tunas needs to be taken with a grain of salt and no one data point can be used conclusively, but in my opinion the winner will come from the top 5 of in its year of release and it will be in the top 10 on tunas. I struggle to see either data point being that far wrong or a change in popularity being that significant for a song. I'm waiting, watching and tracking for now, didn't get any crazy overs like others on here so would rather take the approach to make a call closer to the day.

I've also been running some analysis on past actual ranking vs predicted by artist and performance of artist on the day as a predictor of increase or decrease in votes for songs at the top end and there is definitely some strong correlation indicating you might be wise to to put bets on part way through the count. We saw Billie hold her early odds on the day right until Tones came in at 4th and this got me thinking...

agree the live count is very telling and you can use to your betting advantage.

the last 2 countdowns In hindsight -
When billie got her 5th song in the count you could tell she would probably win. When Denzel Ricky slid you could be even more confident.
When Ocean Alley had song 100 you could tell they would probably win.

id be keen to see more of you artist performance analysis and thoughts on the current WT top 10 if you are willing to share here or PM.

 

[Frankth3tank]

agree the live count is very telling and you can use to your betting advantage.

the last 2 countdowns In hindsight -
When billie got her 5th song in the count you could tell she would probably win. When Denzel Ricky slid you could be even more confident.
When Ocean Alley had song 100 you could tell they would probably win.

id be keen to see more of you artist performance analysis and thoughts on the current WT top 10 if you are willing to share here or PM.

It's not really in a shareable format, but the clear downfall to it is if an artist does not have multiple songs making the count, you can't get a read on them. Also, Ricky predicted 64th, came in 45th so actually looked hopeful for Denzel at one stage. It is difficult to apply a 'boost' percentage to the songs of Billie's that were not in Tunas 200 but made the top 100.

 

[notarobot]

I just found my data I collected from Facebook votes for the 20 years countdown and bulls on parade was predicted at 20 and came in at 80 Haha. It does seem like online posting trends don’t change too much over the years.

 

[jack 23]

It's not really in a shareable format, but the clear downfall to it is if an artist does not have multiple songs making the count, you can't get a read on them. Also, Ricky predicted 64th, came in 45th so actually looked hopeful for Denzel at one stage. It is difficult to apply a 'boost' percentage to the songs of Billie's that were not in Tunas 200 but made the top 100.

my bad I thought Ricky slid.

 

[jack 23]

I just found my data I collected from Facebook votes for the 20 years countdown and bulls on parade was predicted at 20 and came in at 80 Haha. It does seem like online posting trends don’t change too much over the years.

wow props to you for doing it for this long.

Suppose we will always keep coming back to do this as long as we enjoy it and make money.

 

[FallingLiefs]

Songs not on the list the could jump up a lot:

When the party’s over

sunflower

rushing back

Solid list. I'm still a you should see me in a crown is Billie's best song group but this definitely big shout as is also that different type. Sunflower surprised not to be in the 100!

Does anyone give Smith St Band a chance. I ended up with a few in my top 30.

 

[notarobot]

wow props to you for doing it for this long.

Suppose we will always keep coming back to do this as long as we enjoy it and make money.

I’ve been doing it since 2006, but before warmest 100 the data was very small and didn’t take too long to count. First year I looked at it you couldn’t even place a bet on Augie March to win (they did have any other song at 7 though) so the following year I knew there was a chance to make big money as the bookies kinda had no idea. Got on knights at 67 odds for a big win...just. And whilst I was capped a bit after that they didn’t really kill my accounts till when the warmest100 happened in 2012.

Luckily new bookies have come and gone so I get the odd fresh account. Back in the day a small sample from fb was more accurate than a big sample from Instagram today. This years warm tunas decade is the worst data I have ever seen. Would bet against pretty much every aspect of it.

 

[ye olde mole]

First year I looked at it you couldn’t even place a bet on Augie March to win (they did have any other song at 7 though) so the following year I knew there was a chance to make big money as the bookies kinda had no idea. Got on knights at 67 odds for a big win...just.

That Augie March bet option opened at $34 that year...on the back of those overs I was able to create a book that meant I made a nice profit if any of four songs won - and those songs finished 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th. Ahhhh simpler times

As for that Muse bet.....wow!!!!!! Well done sir.

 

[jack 23]

Sportsbet with a couple more markets but nothing new.

Had to take DMA like a version $2 and No LAV $4 to hedge my way out of a silly BOP bet earlier.

Still anything could happen here.

Would love to see Blood GOY ($101 Neds) win it but no one has been voting for it.

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

Put your house on $1.25 Rufus - Innerbloom to beat the What So Not Remix

 

[jack 23]

whe

Put your house on $1.25 Rufus - Innerbloom to beat the What So Not Remix

wheres this please.

Also surely 2010-2014 has more songs than 2015-2019.

found it.

I would put my house if they let me. $50 max

 

[ye olde mole]

I would put my house if they let me. $50 max

$5 max for me....insert sad face emoji

 

[ye olde mole]

Also surely 2010-2014 has more songs than 2015-2019.

A very quick audit has me thinking 46 songs from 2010-2014 are almost definitely in the list, versus 26 definites from 2015-2019. So...if that's right, 2010-2014 is a very good bet and should be favourite.

 

[jack 23]

A very quick audit has me thinking 46 songs from 2010-2014 are almost definitely in the list, versus 26 definites from 2015-2019. So...if that's right, 2010-2014 is a very good bet and should be favourite.

yea agree i counted 20 songs = 14/20 from 2010-2014. so more than half, that was enough for me to bet on it. Max bet $50 again tho......

 

[anabac]

Sportsbet with a couple more markets but nothing new.

Had to take DMA like a version $2 and No LAV $4 to hedge my way out of a silly BOP bet earlier.

Still anything could happen here.

Would love to see Blood GOY ($101 Neds) win it but no one has been voting for it.

Agreed DMAs should be highest like a version, I got $4 on lads a few weeks ago. Although interesting to see AB original is $5.50 on sportsbet and $151 on lads to be highest like a version.. Could be worth a fiver with lads just in case sportsbet are on the money

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

M83 top 10 on SB $10 worth a bet. Let me on for $17.

 

[ye olde mole]

Sportsbet offering $15 about Robyn - Dancing on my own missing the 100. Since I'm on the same song to make the 100 at $10 I should probably be sensible and hedge that out.

 

[jack 23]

Sportsbet sharin the love! this is good. Beyonce $1.50 to miss?