MMA-UFC UFC 245 Discussion - 3 Belts on the line

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4THAWN

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Don't have a super strong opinion on the main event. Can't really say who I think will win the wrestling battle. Usman absolutely mauled, smothered and smashed Woodley in a way that no one could've predicted. But Colby kind of does that to everyone. If it comes down to striking I'm not sure who wins either. Usman might have the power to flatten Colby on the feet. But Colby might have the volume and pressure to beat Kamaru on the feet as well.

I'm fairly confident that Holloway will get the job done against Volkanovski. More or less see it going like most of Max's fights, where he picks Alexander apart with the jab before turning it on rounds 3/4/5. Don't really see Volkanovski's power being an issue, Max stood toe-to-toe with Poirier for 5 rounds at 155. Max should be able to defend the takedown as well imo, and will be comfortable on the ground if the fight goes there.
 

burge13

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He shouldn't ever feel comfortable on the mat. His priority should be springing straight back up...

Alex will need to make huge improvements to win here. Max Decision
Nunes/GDR - who cares
Usman for mine but I hope Colby wins so twitter melts
Marlon smashes Aldo
Yan smashes Faber badly. No idea why this fight was made, dangerous fight. Yan will win the title eventually
Neal/Perry will be a banger. FOTN
 

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JG22

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So excited for this one, it’s been one of those stretches without many good fights since the Garden so the anticipation is large.

Looking forward to the main event mostly, Colby winning the belt would be amazing.
 

mouncey2franklin

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Looking forward to this one.

Don't have any real insight to share in terms of predictions, and I also don't have any preferred winners or losers.

Going to enjoy sitting back and appreciating the spectacle, the sport, the art.
 

00Stinger

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As long as Colby wins I will be happy. I can't stand Usman, Colby at least makes me laugh

Nunes you can't back against
You have to favour Max but a Volkanovski win won't shock me

Moraes v Aldo is going to be a cracking fight. be interesting to see if Aldo can take a punch moving down a weight class. Moraes beats Aldo I think
Yan v Faber is another cracking fight especially after Fabers last win. I reckon Faber gets this done


Perry and Neal has the potential to be a great fight too
 
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Nickos66

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My tips

Colby
Max
GDR - coz imma be edgy. The last contender for Amanda that could be considered any sort of threat. After this weekend the division is officially cleaned out IMO.
Moraes - Aldo to miss weight and get his dehydrated brain KO'd
Yan - wtf even is this a match up.
Neal/Perry - Everyone wins.
 

4THAWN

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-Usman(decision)
-Max(decision)
-Nunes(TKO)
-Moraes(TKO) - very confusing decision by Aldo to drop down a weight class after he was already looking weak at 145. Can't see him being healthy at 135 and therefore going Moraes.
-Yan(Decision) - should be too sharp overall and especially on the feet for Faber, but Faber's shown he's still dangerous with his 1st punch KO last fight. Yan could brutalise Faber here, although would be interesting to see Faber in a dominant position on the ground.
 

NonPhixion

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spewing im going to miss this card, some really good fights on. ME is very hard to get a read on. Juiceman & Colby are stylistically very similar. Colby definitely has a bigger gas tank so I think he can probably squeak out the later rounds with high volume. Close to 50/50 imo. Think Max pieces up Volka on the feet and finishes him in the later rounds. Nunes to flatline GDR inside 1 round & then hopefuly set up a trilogy with my girl Shev
 

Guy Threepwood

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Usman to win the main event. Hopefully by face altering KO, but more likely decision. He's the bigger, stronger guy with a similar skill set and I think he'll be able to keep Colby's back to the cage and grind out a comfortable decision. Colby is about as legit a contender as there is in the UFC, I just think it's a bad match up for him.

I'm expecting Max to win, but not in his usual dominant fashion. Alex has great cardio and the mindset of a champ, I just think Max will be too rangy for him to get much done. I expect a 5 round war with Alex swinging to the end, but likely losing a 50-45 type decision.

Nunes took de Randemie down last time they fought and beat the living suitcase out of her. I hope she chooses to strike this time because that would lead to fireworks. I expect Amanda will eventually take her down and finish the fight, but it should be fun while it lasts.

It's hard to tell if Aldo has lost a step or whether the young guys have just surpassed him. He's not old, but has been around forever. I'd like to see him go on a run at 135, but think Moraes might be too much for him.

Agree with the consensus that Yan should win this easily. No idea why Faber is getting a relevant fight as he's a long way past his prime. Yan by early KO with Faber retiring again soon after.
 

NonPhixion

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Colby is actually growing on me lol. At least he has the balls to call out Dana on his bullshit. His Fugazi persona can be annoying but he’s only doing it to build his name, which is working. And he doesn’t strike me as a scumbag that would chin an old man in a pub...
 

00Stinger

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Colby is actually growing on me lol. At least he has the balls to call out Dana on his bullshit. His Fugazi persona can be annoying but he’s only doing it to build his name, which is working. And he doesn’t strike me as a scumbag that would chin an old man in a pub...
and millions drool over that fool but dont like Colby

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GC2015

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I'll preface this by saying there's a decent chance I'm subconsciously being misled for patriotic reasons but I genuinely think Volkanovski is a big chance to beat Holloway tomorrow. We saw the blueprint on how you beat Max eight months ago when Poirier belted him around for five rounds. Completely outclassed Max from a striking perspective and that's supposed to be Holloway's strong point.

Now we know Alex's striking is solid from his kickboxing background and he possesses an impressive amount of power for a 145er but I think one aspect a lot of people overlook is the fact that Volkanovski actually got his start in wrestling and was a national champion at 12 years of age! Chad Mendes was known for his impressive wrestling and Alex made him look like an amateur in the octagon after being taken down three times and getting straight back up every time he was taken down. So that tells me Volkanovski's core strength is next level in the featherweight division. I also think Alex manages distance well which is where the two inch reach advantage plays in his favour. Alex's cardio is also elite which is crucial in a five round fight and he doesn't seem fazed by the big occasion.

Alex likes to bang but is that the most effective game plan against Max or should he go for the takedown? Look at the way he beat Aldo (who is an elite striker) by outclassing him on his feet as an example of what could happen tomorrow. I'm not sure if Alex is going to utilise his ground game but it's possible given that's not really Max's strong suit. If not, I believe a barrage of strikes similar to what Poirier did to Holloway could be Alex's ticket to the belt. I guess what I'm trying to say is Alex has multiple avenues he could explore to win this fight and may very well change tactics mid way through the fight if his initial game plan isn't effective.

I know I've kind of overlooked Max's strengths but what are your thoughts on my theories?
 

NonPhixion

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I'll preface this by saying there's a decent chance I'm subconsciously being misled for patriotic reasons but I genuinely think Volkanovski is a big chance to beat Holloway tomorrow. We saw the blueprint on how you beat Max eight months ago when Poirier belted him around for five rounds. Completely outclassed Max from a striking perspective and that's supposed to be Holloway's strong point.

Now we know Alex's striking is solid from his kickboxing background and he possesses an impressive amount of power for a 145er but I think one aspect a lot of people overlook is the fact that Volkanovski actually got his start in wrestling and was a national champion at 12 years of age! Chad Mendes was known for his impressive wrestling and Alex made him look like an amateur in the octagon after being taken down three times and getting straight back up every time he was taken down. So that tells me Volkanovski's core strength is next level in the featherweight division. I also think Alex manages distance well which is where the two inch reach advantage plays in his favour. Alex's cardio is also elite which is crucial in a five round fight and he doesn't seem fazed by the big occasion.

Alex likes to bang but is that the most effective game plan against Max or should he go for the takedown? Look at the way he beat Aldo (who is an elite striker) by outclassing him on his feet as an example of what could happen tomorrow. I'm not sure if Alex is going to utilise his ground game but it's possible given that's not really Max's strong suit. If not, I believe a barrage of strikes similar to what Poirier did to Holloway could be Alex's ticket to the belt. I guess what I'm trying to say is Alex has multiple avenues he could explore to win this fight and may very well change tactics mid way through the fight if his initial game plan isn't effective.

I know I've kind of overlooked Max's strengths but what are your thoughts on my theories?
You make some decent points. But Volk doesn’t have anywhere near the striking & power of the Diamond. Completely different levels. I trust Max’s TDD to hold up & even if he gets taken down, can Volk hold him there for multiple rounds? As an Aussie I obviously would like to see him win but I think Max is just a class above and will piece him up for 3-4 rounds & possibly finish him
 

GC2015

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You make some decent points. But Volk doesn’t have anywhere near the striking & power of the Diamond. Completely different levels. I trust Max’s TDD to hold up & even if he gets taken down, can Volk hold him there for multiple rounds? As an Aussie I obviously would like to see him win but I think Max is just a class above and will piece him up for 3-4 rounds & possibly finish him
It's a great question. When you watch the way Mendes struggled to control him on the ground you get an idea of Alex's core strength but does that translate to control or is he considerably better with defensive wrestling than he is with offensive wrestling? There isn't a whole lot of footage of Alex's UFC career available on YouTube but he seemed to control Yusuke Kasuya pretty well on the ground and really punished him with his ground and pound. Obviously there's a big difference in standard between Kasuya and Holloway but I can only base it on the footage I'm able to find. I wish I could find more footage to give you a proper answer.
 

Dan

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I think Usman gets a comfortable decision win over Covington.

Holloway will be too much for Volkanovski unfortunately.

Nunes with a submission win over Randemie.

Aldo gets an easy decision win over Moraes. I think Aldo will bully everyone at 135....providing he can keep cutting that weight.
 

DazalenkoUBewty

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I wouldn't be surprised if 4 upsets happened on main card. Probs not for the Cali Kid.
 

4THAWN

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I'll preface this by saying there's a decent chance I'm subconsciously being misled for patriotic reasons but I genuinely think Volkanovski is a big chance to beat Holloway tomorrow. We saw the blueprint on how you beat Max eight months ago when Poirier belted him around for five rounds. Completely outclassed Max from a striking perspective and that's supposed to be Holloway's strong point.
The Poirier Holloway fight was actually much closer than many seem to recall, 2 rounds each(what most people scored the fight, not everyone) going into the 5th round where Dustin managed to keep his pace up to hold on. It was keeping Max on the back foot which was the major factor in Dustin's success, not letting Max fight in his usual way.

Volk wouldn't have the same level of power/striking as dustin. Dustin's got some super clean boxing, and I'd be surprised if Volkanovski's power was actually comparable.

Also need to note that Poirier had 10"+ reach advantage, which went a long way to stopping Max being on the front foot pressing with his jab as effectively as normal. Volkanovski won't have that luxury so will need to find a different method to get Max retreating on the back foot.

In terms of wrestling, Max dealt with Frankie's wrestling very easily, and I'm not super sure about Volk's wrestling credentials.
 

GC2015

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The Poirier Holloway fight was actually much closer than many seem to recall, 2 rounds each(what most people scored the fight, not everyone) going into the 5th round where Dustin managed to keep his pace up to hold on.
Not quite...


All three judges had Poirier up 3-1 going into the fifth round. Completely unfair to say Poirier 'held on' when he beat Max 4-1 in all three judge's eyes. It was one way traffic in eyes of the people whose opinions matter the most.

It was keeping Max on the back foot which was the major factor in Dustin's success, not letting Max fight in his usual way.

Volk wouldn't have the same level of power/striking as dustin. Dustin's got some super clean boxing, and I'd be surprised if Volkanovski's power was actually comparable.
Well Alex is definitely capable of fighting on the front foot so he can definitely put pressure on Max from that perspective. You're right that Dustin's boxing is better than Alex's but I'd like to think Volk's overall striking with kicks included is right up there with the best of them. Hard to compare power in the two fights because the extra 10 pounds does make a fair bit of difference.

Also need to note that Poirier had 10"+ reach advantage, which went a long way to stopping Max being on the front foot pressing with his jab as effectively as normal. Volkanovski won't have that luxury so will need to find a different method to get Max retreating on the back foot.

In terms of wrestling, Max dealt with Frankie's wrestling very easily, and I'm not super sure about Volk's wrestling credentials.
That's a good point. Having that kind of reach advantage clearly changes the dynamic when it comes to striking. However, if the striking isn't working for Alex, he can get to work on the ground so there are options for him. Multiple avenues to victory for Volk and that's why I like his chances. I want to see if he can control a longer body like Max's on the ground. I feel that will be a huge factor if the fight ends up on the canvas.
 

Guy Threepwood

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It's a great question. When you watch the way Mendes struggled to control him on the ground you get an idea of Alex's core strength but does that translate to control or is he considerably better with defensive wrestling than he is with offensive wrestling? There isn't a whole lot of footage of Alex's UFC career available on YouTube but he seemed to control Yusuke Kasuya pretty well on the ground and really punished him with his ground and pound. Obviously there's a big difference in standard between Kasuya and Holloway but I can only base it on the footage I'm able to find. I wish I could find more footage to give you a proper answer.
Alex has had good success taking guys down and beating them up. When I think of his offensive wrestling, I think about takedowns against the cage. At range, I don't remember him showing off a power double which is what I think he needs in his bag to win this fight. Max's reach is understated because his shoulders are so narrow and he does a great job switching stances or squaring up to control the range on his opponents. I think he will be too crafty on the feet to get trapped against the cage and taken down by Alex. Having said that, Alex has shown great control when he gets on top, so if he is able to get Max down I think he will do well.

In the stand up, what Poirier and McGregor did well against Max early on was hurt him. Alex needs to find a way to trap Max and force some heavy exchanges early on. If he can't, I think it's a long night for him.
 

Guy Threepwood

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Nice wins for Brown and Akhmedov so far on the prelims. Brown spent a ridiculous amount of time in a triangle and kept looking for takedowns even when it was clear that the ground was Saunders' best chance to get the win. Omari on the other hand looked great, but gassed badly again. He's a tank and very well rounded, but will get found out against the top guys with good gas tanks.
 

GC2015

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Alex has had good success taking guys down and beating them up. When I think of his offensive wrestling, I think about takedowns against the cage. At range, I don't remember him showing off a power double which is what I think he needs in his bag to win this fight. Max's reach is understated because his shoulders are so narrow and he does a great job switching stances or squaring up to control the range on his opponents. I think he will be too crafty on the feet to get trapped against the cage and taken down by Alex. Having said that, Alex has shown great control when he gets on top, so if he is able to get Max down I think he will do well.

In the stand up, what Poirier and McGregor did well against Max early on was hurt him. Alex needs to find a way to trap Max and force some heavy exchanges early on. If he can't, I think it's a long night for him.
Nice assessment. I agree with what you've said.

Alex's takedowns are definitely far more effective when the cage is involved.
 

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