UFC Betting

[NonPhixion]

Wasn't sure if there was a thread for this, so thought id make one. UFC 225 this weekend, Whittaker Vs Romero main event. Anyone betting on this?
There are two fights on the under card I really like
Holly Holm and Claudia Gadelha to both win. They are clearly more skillful then there opponents
3u on multi here 1.70

I reckon Whittaker wins this fight, Romero never really troubled him in the first fight, whittaker has far superior cardio and is a very skillful fighter. taking 1u on him. also having a crack Whittaker 4th round KO @17. 0.25u

 

[NonPhixion]

3-1
Happy with that, Whittaker almost got knocked out in the 5th round, but survived and got the decision win, craziest fight ive ever seen.Will post up my punts for UFC 226 here soon

 

[NonPhixion]

Ok so UFC 226:
Main event is Stipe miocic (HW champ) VS Daniel Cormier (LHW champ). This is a very interesting fight given that both are champions of their respective divisions. My money is on Stipe to win this - short odds at 1.35. I just cant see Cormier winning this fight. DC usually relies on his elite wrestling and strength to manhandle his opponents, which he wont be able to use as an advantage against someone like Stipe who is very strong & also has great wrestling. While Cormier hasn't been beaten when moving up to HW he has never fought someone of the calibre of Stipe who also possess' an iron chin. Given Ngannou, Hunt and JDS couldn't knock him out I cant see DC. To me this seems like a big money fight for DC just before his retirement so he can go out with $$.
Miocic is the best in the world right now and will be too much for DC. having said that I cant see him finishing DC, DC is a tough guy. So im also taking Stipe to win on points @3.10. It seems like the most likely outcome to me.

So theres my break-down of the main event, from a betting POV I don't really like any other fights on the main card. Ortega might be good odds against Holloway but they will need to drift further for me to get on. I will post up anything I like on the prelim card after I watch some tapes and the odds are posted.

 

[NonPhixion]

Now that footy season is over, ill be punting on every UFC card. Not sure why there aren't any others on here, its a really fun sport to bet on imo, but maybe that's just cause I love MMA.

UFC 229 Preview:
This card sees the return of the Notorious Conor Mcgregor who has not fought in MMA since Nov 2016, when he KO'd Eddie Alvarez. He is taking on the Eagle Khabib Nurmagomedov. This fight sees two completely different fighting styles meeting each other. Conor having the advantage on the feet and Khabib having the advantage on the ground and in the clinch. Khabib also has a significant cardio advantage, possessing some of the best in the division and is constantly pressing forward looking for a take down. I think this fight pans out much similar to Khabib's fight with Edson Barboza. Being able to absorb the punches and kicks from Barboza who is an elite striker and then taking him down and having his way on the ground.
I am really big on Khabib here, I think his pressure will be too much and he will grind Conor down. Conor's only chance is to win via ko/tko in the first 2 rounds. Otherwise he is in for a long night.
Khabib is currently 1.60, but im expecting this to drift out as money from 'casuals' comes in last couple days for Mcgregor.
Im taking Mcgregor 0.3u KO- 1ST Rnd @5.50 and Mcgregor 0.2u KO -2nd Rnd @7.50
Adding 3u on Khabib H2H at closing odds.
Got a 3 leg 2u multi on:
Ferguson
Khabib
Kunitskaya @3.00 - if Khabibs odds rise before the fight this will ^
the other bet I fancy is Ferguson to win via submission in the 3rd round @15. He has the best cardio in the division and often finishes guys in the later rounds as a result. He also possess' the best jiu-jitsu skills in the division, in his last 7 wins, 5 of them have come via submission.

 

[Red Dog Styles]

Now that footy season is over, ill be punting on every UFC card. Not sure why there aren't any others on here, its a really fun sport to bet on imo, but maybe that's just cause I love MMA.

UFC 229 Preview:
This card sees the return of the Notorious Conor Mcgregor who has not fought in MMA since Nov 2016, when he KO'd Eddie Alvarez. He is taking on the Eagle Khabib Nurmagomedov. This fight sees two completely different fighting styles meeting each other. Conor having the advantage on the feet and Khabib having the advantage on the ground and in the clinch. Khabib also has a significant cardio advantage, possessing some of the best in the division and is constantly pressing forward looking for a take down. I think this fight pans out much similar to Khabib's fight with Edson Barboza. Being able to absorb the punches and kicks from Barboza who is an elite striker and then taking him down and having his way on the ground.
I am really big on Khabib here, I think his pressure will be too much and he will grind Conor down. Conor's only chance is to win via ko/tko in the first 2 rounds. Otherwise he is in for a long night.
Khabib is currently 1.60, but im expecting this to drift out as money from 'casuals' comes in last couple days for Mcgregor.
Im taking Mcgregor 0.3u KO- 1ST Rnd @5.50 and Mcgregor 0.2u KO -2nd Rnd @7.50
Adding 3u on Khabib H2H at closing odds.
Got a 3 leg 2u multi on:
Ferguson
Khabib
Kunitskaya @3.00 - if Khabibs odds rise before the fight this will ^
the other bet I fancy is Ferguson to win via submission in the 3rd round @15. He has the best cardio in the division and often finishes guys in the later rounds as a result. He also possess' the best jiu-jitsu skills in the division, in his last 7 wins, 5 of them have come via submission.

Good start so far.
You think Main Event will make it into the 2nd round?

On [device_name] using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[NonPhixion]

UFC 230:
Lewis (21-5) vs Cormier (21-1-1)
I think Lewis is fighting too early after a previous bout here, even though he won his last fight he was 10 seconds away from losing too. Cormier is a much more technical fighter. He will be able to take him down multiple times and this is where he will do damage. DC has only had 4 wins via submission. However 2 of those submission wins were both against Anthony Johnson a similar matchup to Lewis. Lewis has a durable chin so he will be hard to put away think he gets caught on the ground here, 1u on DC via sub @2.88. Odds have gone down to 2.70. Still a good play here imo this is the most likely outcome of the fight, even though DC via ko/tko is 2.00.

Weidman (14-3) vs Souza (25-6)
This will be a tough fight, They both are pretty evenly matched, Souza is a bit older but just as strong and probably has more ko power. Weidman is very durable, took some tough knockouts recently but I think the only way he loses here is if he gets caught on the ground. Souza has only been knocked out once in his UFC fights against Whittaker, and lost a split decision to Romero. 1u on fight going the distance @2.20

They are my only plays. taking some risks but I think theres value.

 

[NonPhixion]

UFN 141 Blaydes vs Ngannou
1u on Ngannou @2.78
Sportsbet are so slow on releasing other markets for these fights.. waiting for KO line.

 

[NonPhixion]

UFN 142 Dos Santos vs Tuivasa
2u on Dos Santos @1.67
These are great odds, I think he dominates this fight.

 

[Daniltchenko You Beauty]

UFN 142 Dos Santos vs Tuivasa
2u on Dos Santos @1.67
These are great odds, I think he dominates this fight.

Brave betting on these two. HWs are hard enough to pick, then JDS has a dodgy chin and Tai has seven 1st round KOs.

 

[NonPhixion]

Brave betting on these two. HWs are hard enough to pick, then JDS has a dodgy chin and Tai has seven 1st round KOs.

HW is definitely the most unpredictable division. Lewis is a walking example of that. I might hedge the bet with Tuivasa RD 1 KO @5.50, he definitely has the power to knockout JDS but after RD 1 his chances diminish significantly. I just think this is an overwhelming step up in competition for Tai. I don’t like betting against aussies but In his last fight he just got over the line against an inferior fighter with a more suspect chin than JDS. If you look at JDS, 4/5 of his loses have been to top tier fighters who are very technical and have good cardio, Tai doesn’t possess these attributes.now JDS might have slowed a bit from his prime but he still has world-class striking and I think his experience will be another factor. I see him being very patient in the first round, using his jabs to keep range and then opening up on Tuivasa as the fight progresses. He rarely takes people down because of his strong stand-up but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him take Tai down and finish him with GnP. I cap JDS’ odds around the 1.40 mark for this fight

 

[Daniltchenko You Beauty]

HW is definitely the most unpredictable division. Lewis is a walking example of that. I might hedge the bet with Tuivasa RD 1 KO @5.50, he definitely has the power to knockout JDS but after RD 1 his chances diminish significantly. I just think this is an overwhelming step up in competition for Tai. I don’t like betting against aussies but In his last fight he just got over the line against an inferior fighter with a more suspect chin than JDS. If you look at JDS, 4/5 of his loses have been to top tier fighters who are very technical and have good cardio, Tai doesn’t possess these attributes.now JDS might have slowed a bit from his prime but he still has world-class striking and I think his experience will be another factor. I see him being very patient in the first round, using his jabs to keep range and then opening up on Tuivasa as the fight progresses. He rarely takes people down because of his strong stand-up but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him take Tai down and finish him with GnP. I cap JDS’ odds around the 1.40 mark for this fight

You definitely make a good case for JDS. I just hate betting on heavyweights. Been burnt too often.

 

[NonPhixion]

UFC 231 Holloway vs Ortega
Wasn't going to bet this card but Pointsbet had some crazy odds.
0.2U Shevchenko to win by sub @26. This line is way out imo. Most likely goes to a decision, but I see a lot of value here

 

[adammania9]

Gunnar Nelson easy money

 

[NonPhixion]

UFC on Fox 31
Dan Hooker vs Edson Barboza - 1U Fight to go the distance @2.34

 

[checkraiseulite]

think the ref had the same bet

 

[NonPhixion]

think the ref had the same bet

Barboza’s spinning kicks are something else

 

[NonPhixion]

UFC 232 Jones vs Gustafsson 2
3u on Jones @1.35
0.2u via submission @5
Putting the nuts on the line here. But Jones really is the GOAT. PED’s or not I don’t see anybody beating him

 

[NonPhixion]

UFC FN 143
Dillashaw vs Cejudo
2u on Dillashaw @1.49
Pretty confident on this play. He’s bigger, stronger, on PED’s and should be able to nullify his opponents biggest strength.

 

[NonPhixion]

UFC FN 143
Dillashaw vs Cejudo
2u on Dillashaw @1.49
Pretty confident on this play. He’s bigger, stronger, on PED’s and should be able to nullify his opponents biggest strength.

Well that was the quickest 2U’s I’ve ever lost

 

[onebillsdrive]

Just noticed on WA tab their results were Greg hardy winner by decision in method of victory at $8.75 and also same fight under how will the fight end by decision at $5.50

 

[NonPhixion]

Just noticed on WA tab their results were Greg hardy winner by decision in method of victory at $8.75 and also same fight under how will the fight end by decision at $5.50

Hmm they’ve made a big mistake there. Hardy definitely got what he deserved

 

[NonPhixion]

UFC 234
0.75U Whittaker to win via KO/TKO -Pointsbet @4
0.75U Whittaker via unanimous decision - SB @3.50

I think Whittaker takes this. Can’t see him getting a sub, see him getting a late round KO or decision win.

 

[iluvparis]

Sports have double your winnings H2H on the fight

 

[NonPhixion]

Sports have double your winnings H2H on the fight

Hmm. I don’t see any value in the ML tbh. Odds are probably on the mark imo

 

[iluvparis]

Hmm. I don’t see any value in the ML tbh. Odds are probably on the mark imo

If you can't see value with your winnings doubled you should probably give up the punt