UFC Betting

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4THAWN

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Mar 25, 2019
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Bets today gents?

Given im home to watch this rubbish give me something to tail, ive not looked into it much at all.

Played Herm at 2.12
Dolidze sub 8.50

Thoughts on these

Smolka 1.80
Hill decision 3.60
O2.5 in the main 1.72

Spence Jr decision in boxing 1.80 also
smolka 1.80 i liked but after his weight cut issues decided to stay out.

Think that Hill decision price is fair. Although you'll be sweating because OSP's striking defense is meh plus OSP hits hard and also has a big grappling advantage.

Without having looked into main event I'd say thats a reasonable price for o2.5. Vettori not really a finisher, not much power and very unlikely to sub Herm. Hermannson low power too, essentially you just need Vettori not to get submitted early or some other freak stuff. Don't mind it.
 

burge13

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Bets today gents?

Given im home to watch this rubbish give me something to tail, ive not looked into it much at all.

Played Herm at 2.12
Dolidze sub 8.50
Smolka 1.80
Hill decision 3.60
O2.5 in the main 1.72
Spence Jr decision in boxing 1.80 also
Played Herm at 2.12 - loss
Dolidze sub 8.50 - came close in R1. Loss
Smolka 1.80 - win
Hill decision 3.60 - loss
O2.5 in the main 1.72 - win
Spence Jr decision in boxing 1.80 also - win

Not great.
 

4THAWN

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I did pretty decent, managed to snag some great odds for Topuria KO early which essentially made my card profitable. Was able to cover some of the loss on Allan by hitting the over 1.5.

Keen for next week. I'm already on Moreno at 3.60, but as long as corona doesn't ruin the card it should be a fun one.
 

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burge13

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Yep I think I'll bet Moreno too (3.85 this morning). Fig has a rough cut and doing it 2x in 3-4 weeks won't be easy
IF BM gets out of the first 7-8 minutes he's right in it...

Jacare as underdog against a guy who got taken down by Darren Stewart?! People quickly forget Jacare went to a split with the current LHW champ (in a fight as bad as Lewis/Ngannou). He isn't as washed as people think IMO (still washed though, just not as bad)

Billy Q. Fade on Tucker, I don't think he's very good. Small cage won't help him either
 

4THAWN

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Yep I think I'll bet Moreno too (3.85 this morning). Fig has a rough cut and doing it 2x in 3-4 weeks won't be easy
IF BM gets out of the first 7-8 minutes he's right in it...

Jacare as underdog against a guy who got taken down by Darren Stewart?! People quickly forget Jacare went to a split with the current LHW champ (in a fight as bad as Lewis/Ngannou). He isn't as washed as people think IMO (still washed though, just not as bad)

Billy Q. Fade on Tucker, I don't think he's very good. Small cage won't help him either
Yeah agree about Moreno, same as Perez really has better minute winning ability than Figueredo and needs to get out of the fire in rounds 1 and 2.
3.85 a great price.

I also am thinking about Souza, has that grappling path to victory all day every day, really comes down to how washed up he really is.

eh. Billy Q aint that good either. Even fight, lean tucker but probably won't bet either guy straight out. Might see some decent props available there.
 

4THAWN

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Neither was Rick Glenn when he mauled Tucker
i mean I could also say Spike Carlyle isn't very impressive and he arguably beat Billy Q.

Algeo who looked trash up until his fight with Lamas has since come out and make Billy's effort against Spike look pretty mediocre too.
 

burge13

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I can’t bet against the Fig.
He’s a straight up killer
I agree but this one is dog or pass for me. Weight cut is big for him and if someone does get into the championship rounds (or even out of round 1) we have a very different fight than what happens the first 3 mins
 

burge13

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Jacare sub $6
Fade Hooper $3.85
Moreno 4, 5 or Dec $6.50
If you still believe Oliveira is a flake against top competition, Ferg sub $8.50
Alternatively Olives TKO $8
JDS/Gane FGTD $3.25/JDS Decision $9

Seem big prices on some of these and semi surprised Cub is underdog despite being washed, he can strike. Pineda is 35 and the definition of journeyman though I cashed a good dog number on him over Burns last time out

Let's get some discussion going into the last PPV of the year
 

4THAWN

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Jacare sub $6
Fade Hooper $3.85
Moreno 4, 5 or Dec $6.50
If you still believe Oliveira is a flake against top competition, Ferg sub $8.50
Alternatively Olives TKO $8
JDS/Gane FGTD $3.25/JDS Decision $9

Seem big prices on some of these and semi surprised Cub is underdog despite being washed, he can strike. Pineda is 35 and the definition of journeyman though I cashed a good dog number on him over Burns last time out

Let's get some discussion going into the last PPV of the year
I like Jacare too, really the question is whether he's too washed to beat Holland. I'm on the fence.

eh I tried to find a reason why Hooper would lose but I can't bet Barrett. He's trash. Obvs Hooper not that great either but he should win.

Personally got some Moreno straight out and some moreno KO/Decision.

Love the oliviera v Ferg fight, I tried really hard to fade Ferg but I dont think I'll be able to. Don't think ferg will sub him. Oliviera KO is a decent price but Tony's chin is otherworldly.

I'm on the fence about betting JDS/Gane GTD or JDS decision. Agree those prices look good.
 

burge13

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Hooper has no strength to wrestle so if it stands standing, anyone can beat him. I don't think he is a real fighter tbh

I've already bet Jacare at 2.40 but sub also might be worth a stab. Holland likes to scramble a bit mixed with his poor TDD should give an openings

Ferg/Olives you shouldn't need to bet on. It'll be a fantastic fight. If FOTN odds pop up this is a no brainer above $2 but I don't think we'll get odds
 

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4THAWN

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Hooper has no strength to wrestle so if it stands standing, anyone can beat him. I don't think he is a real fighter tbh

I've already bet Jacare at 2.40 but sub also might be worth a stab. Holland likes to scramble a bit mixed with his poor TDD should give an openings

Ferg/Olives you shouldn't need to bet on. It'll be a fantastic fight. If FOTN odds pop up this is a no brainer above $2 but I don't think we'll get odds
yeah hooper has a very empty game apart from his ground game, but seriously Peter Barrett is bad.

Yeah Souza sub certainly a prop you could look into, Holland can get himself into sticky situations.

I've never bet on a FOTN prop but Fiziev v Moicano would be one i'd nominate as a good chance for FOTN.

Generally not seeing too many spots to bet this card.
 

burge13

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Fiziev striking is legit but people forget Moicano was a top contender and had a good outing v Aldo, beat Swanson, Stephens and Kattar.

I think Fiziev decision is most likely but no bet. Should be a really good fight too
 

NonPhixion

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Sharp discussion here.
Don’t mind me I’m just a casual popping in.
TFerg is my boy. I think the ML prices are pretty spot on, but I do think there is value in the sub line. To compare from memory Fergs sub line was around $8-9 against Khabib...
if you are giving me $23 R2 & $34 R3, I’ll take it all day long.
 

burge13

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Sharp discussion here.
Don’t mind me I’m just a casual popping in.
TFerg is my boy. I think the ML prices are pretty spot on, but I do think there is value in the sub line. To compare from memory Fergs sub line was around $8-9 against Khabib...
if you are giving me $23 R2 & $34 R3, I’ll take it all day long.
Great way to play it given Olives historically hasnt got through this level before. Ferg is a giant step up from his win streak too.
 

4THAWN

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Fiziev striking is legit but people forget Moicano was a top contender and had a good outing v Aldo, beat Swanson, Stephens and Kattar.

I think Fiziev decision is most likely but no bet. Should be a really good fight too
Yeah i think Fiziev decision is most likely outcome as well.

Moicano is good, although we haven't seen too much of him at lightweight yet.

It's pretty amazing watching the Kattar fight, Moicano just outclasses him with his kicking game. If Moicano was still a FW and they fought again I'd say theres little to no chance of Moicano looking so good again.

This fight is going to be a banger.
 

4THAWN

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I've found an angle I like in the JDS/Gane fight.

Grab some Gane KO/Decision, and some JDS ML. Only way you can lose is essentially a Gane club and sub. Gane probably isn't taking him down either, JDS stuffed 6/6 takedowns against Curtis Blaydes 2 fights ago.
 

burge13

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I've found an angle I like in the JDS/Gane fight.

Grab some Gane KO/Decision, and some JDS ML. Only way you can lose is essentially a Gane club and sub. Gane probably isn't taking him down either, JDS stuffed 6/6 takedowns against Curtis Blaydes 2 fights ago.
The way I'd be looking at a bet like is would be to bet Gane then use that potential profits on JDS (or most of). Taking the risk mostly out of JDS. For example -

Gane Dec/TKO x $20 = $31.40
JDS ML x $11.40 = $49.02

Lose $31.40 on a Gane Sub
 

4THAWN

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The way I'd be looking at a bet like is would be to bet Gane then use that potential profits on JDS (or most of). Taking the risk mostly out of JDS. For example -

Gane Dec/TKO x $20 = $31.40
JDS ML x $11.40 = $49.02

Lose $31.40 on a Gane Sub
yeah could do it that way.

could also do it this way if you wanted

5 units Gane KO/DEC @ 1.57 returns 7.85 Units (+1 Unit on a Gane KO/DEC)

1.85 Units JDS @ 4.3 returns 7.955 units (+1.1U on a JDS win)

-6.85 Units on Gane Sub.

Upto personal preference, can take riskier option for a win on both sides or a less risky option for a win on only JDS side.
 

burge13

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yeah could do it that way.

could also do it this way if you wanted

5 units Gane KO/DEC @ 1.57 returns 7.85 Units (+1 Unit on a Gane KO/DEC)

1.85 Units JDS @ 4.3 returns 7.955 units (+1.1U on a JDS win)

-6.85 Units on Gane Sub.

Up to personal preference, can take riskier option for a win on both sides or a less risky option for a win on only JDS side.
Both make sense if you have a lean or are really confident the sub doesn't happen. Personally, I wouldn't outlay near 7 units on this fight...

Another way would be -
1U GTD at 3.25
1U JDS at 4.30

Gane ITD busts both but it's only 2U
 

burge13

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Fade Hooper was there, he is terrible and should not be 1.25 over anyone. He does have heart though and sometimes that matters more than skill
 

4THAWN

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Fade Hooper was there, he is terrible and should not be 1.25 over anyone. He does have heart though and sometimes that matters more than skill
yeah, like seriously Peter Barrett blew that. I didn't bet but would have been a shocking beat.

Chase has no good conventional takedowns and relies on wacky imanari rolls and stuff to get into grappling exchanges.
 

burge13

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Just one of those days. Starting with Anthony Joshua getting a tko in R3 but the ref not stopping it (cant turn your back, ref should stwp in). I was on 1-6 and he gets a stop in the 9th

Barrett sh*t the bed

Got Fiziev, oliveira, and Cub. Missed on just about everything else. Down for the day. Waiting on Canelo to close a multi and a decision for a different one
 

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