UFC Betting

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4THAWN

Club Legend
Mar 25, 2019
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Good betting card imo.

If your looking for faves that should win : emmers, spivak, blaydes

also on erosa and dobson smaller, and Kunitskaya dec

sprinkled a bunch of props too

Daukaus dec
Hawes dec
Spivak KO
Klose KO
Late Rosa KO props
Late Gordon KO props
 

NonPhixion

Bookie Assassin
Mar 27, 2018
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Blaydes score a TD in R1,R2 & R3. $2.50

Will be able to take down Lewis with complete ease, should score a TD in every round, so just need it to see 3 rounds imo.
 

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4THAWN

Club Legend
Mar 25, 2019
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Fill up today, on the end of a questionable decision in the Kunitskaya fight albeit.

Shame the Emmers fight was cancelled.

Beautiful uppercut by the black beast.
 

Bucking Bronco

Team Captain
May 5, 2014
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Taking Gane despite the odds. He's the greatest talent to ever enter HW MMA, and Rozenstruik is a bum as far as I'm concerned, only thing he has him for is power presumably, but when you mirror up power/ durability I don't think there's gonna be an edge there anyway.

Rate Gane as an 85% shot. Hopefully closes at ~$1.50 for some okay value. Barely bet faves, but have loved Gane since before he joined the UFC and going to keep riding the wave whenever there's favourable opportunities.
 

4THAWN

Club Legend
Mar 25, 2019
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Yeah i snapped up 1.46-1.44 on betfair for Gane earlier in the week, think those are good enough odds to take the risk on a heavyweight 5 rounded in small cage.


Maryra Beuno Silva by KO @ 15s another bet i like.
Got some Alex Caceres by KO too
last bet is Vince Cachero by KO/DEC @ 2.70

if Gane wins and another one of these props hit i'll be looking good.
 

burge13

Norm Smith Medallist
Jan 25, 2019
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Got Croom at 3.20 but that isnt to say i like him. Caceras just isnt good enough to be a big fav, odds moved now.

Jacoby at 1.56 but semi regret that
Davis 2.75 small
Gane Sub 6.00 small
Ankalaev ITD 1.95

Canelo (boxing) 1-6 at 1.57
Forest (boxing) at 5.30
 

burge13

Norm Smith Medallist
Jan 25, 2019
5,415
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Got Croom at 3.20 but that isnt to say i like him. Caceras just isnt good enough to be a big fav, odds moved now.

Jacoby at 1.56 but semi regret that
Davis 2.75 small
Gane Sub 6.00 small
Ankalaev ITD 1.95

Canelo (boxing) 1-6 at 1.57
Forest (boxing) at 5.30
Win
Win
Loss
Loss
Win
Half win

Couple units up. Forrest should have won though, majority draw could easily have been a late stop had he poured it on. Onto next week
 

4THAWN

Club Legend
Mar 25, 2019
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Gane was an easy watch lol Rozen sucks.

Beuno Silva ko at 15s was a great bet

Cachero lol that was embarrasing he should be cut.

Caceres could've probably finished if he'd tried harder in round 3 but decent bet on ko at 9s

tiny loss this week next weeks card should be grouse.
 

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burge13

Norm Smith Medallist
Jan 25, 2019
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Rozenstruik has now completed 11 rounds in the UFC and lost 10 of them. BUM.
Hes actually skilled. Very good when he actually goes forward

How or why he stays on the backfoot when hes 4 rounds down is beyond me. He didnt bite on feints, he doesnt panic but then he doesnt do anything. Him v Lewis would be a really bad fight
 

Bucking Bronco

Team Captain
May 5, 2014
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Hes actually skilled. Very good when he actually goes forward

How or why he stays on the backfoot when hes 4 rounds down is beyond me. He didnt bite on feints, he doesnt panic but then he doesnt do anything. Him v Lewis would be a really bad fight
Disagree.

My read on him going into this fight after doing his fights was that he is technically poor with his striking. He does have a decent-ish jab; and a decent variety of strikes, but the quality of them is not good. He is definitely one of the harder hitters in the division, but in saying that, even that may have been overstated. He's got KOs over the glass chin holy trinity in JDS, Reem and AA; and for all I know, Crowder and Alibini are chinny dudes too. They're records don't refute it.

He always fights passive. Only time he's applied forward pressure was in the final 30 seconds of the JDS fight where he did look good there, but we all know JDS crumbles once he starts getting backed up. Expected him to be backing up this fight due to Gane having a relatively aggressively approach (see Boser fight) with his footwork.

He's an Ivanov calibre of fighter and pretty much Bradburied his way into the top 5.

People think because he's a pro kick boxer, he's a good striker in MMA. Refer to Gokhan Saki against Roundtree, and I'm not talking about the part where he got KOed. Kickboxing striking is overrated/ not compatible with MMA.
 

Bucking Bronco

Team Captain
May 5, 2014
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Fair enough, however what do you make of Adesanya's success?
I don't know, I'm no expert, one thing that does jump out though is that guys like Rozenstruik and Saki had been kickboxing for 15-20 years before attempting to pursue a career in MMA in their 30s, where as Adesanya only kickboxed exclusively for the first 3 years of his career before taking up full-scale MMA too, but continued kickboxing primarily for the next several years in order to give himself a real sharpened edge in the striking department when he finally entered MMA, but he always had the intention of using his striking in MMA in mind. Maybe helped with him developing a style in his formative years that was much more MMA compatible, idk.

His striking has always looked great in MMA though, the other guys just largely haven't. Saki got KOed by Roundtree off a horribly telegraphed naked leg kick, you would never have guessed he was a top kickboxer going off that fight. Maybe heavyweight kickboxing just has an insanely low bar standards wise compared to lighter weight classes, I mean it's kinda ridiculous that Overeem won K1 as a pretty much full-time MMA fighter when his striking wasn't even that special for an MMA fighter leading into him doing K1 (did look great there though).
 

burge13

Norm Smith Medallist
Jan 25, 2019
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This weekend

Dom Cruz - 2.20
A Cruz - 2.40
Sterling - 2.10
Askarov - 1.90

Want to see Rakic odds improve
Wouldn't begrudge anyone having a stab at Dober or Espinosa and I might yet play Brady ITD
 

4THAWN

Club Legend
Mar 25, 2019
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There are many reasons why Kickboxers/Muay Thai fighters can struggle to have the same effectiveness striking in MMA including
-Different gloves produce different fighting styles. Happy to shell up and bank that your two massive gloves will protect you vs needing to move your head in MMA because of the small gloves not being able to protect you properly.
-Your entire style/posture needs to fit a different purpose in MMA. A lower centre of gravity to defend takedowns is needed, footwork must be different because you need to be prepared for takedowns
-Kicks can be caught and used against you (this does happen in Muay Thai)
 

4THAWN

Club Legend
Mar 25, 2019
2,158
2,483
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Hawthorn
This weekend

Dom Cruz - 2.20
A Cruz - 2.40
Sterling - 2.10
Askarov - 1.90

Want to see Rakic odds improve
Wouldn't begrudge anyone having a stab at Dober or Espinosa and I might yet play Brady ITD
Currently got:
-Lemos - 1.60
-Rakic - 1.70 on betfair
-Sterling even money
-Nunes by decision - 11.50 on pointsbet

will almost certainly have more action by end of the week.

What a glorious card this could be.
 

burge13

Norm Smith Medallist
Jan 25, 2019
5,415
10,894
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Adelaide
Currently got:
-Lemos - 1.60
-Rakic - 1.70 on betfair
-Sterling even money
-Nunes by decision - 11.50 on pointsbet

will almost certainly have more action by end of the week.

What a glorious card this could be.
Nunes 'should' smash her within 5-7 mins. This is so one-sided it's not funny but Nunes has a habit of playing safe sometimes

I know nothing of Lemos but a mate said to back the dog there
 

4THAWN

Club Legend
Mar 25, 2019
2,158
2,483
AFL Club
Hawthorn
Nunes 'should' smash her within 5-7 mins. This is so one-sided it's not funny but Nunes has a habit of playing safe sometimes

I know nothing of Lemos but a mate said to back the dog there
I'm happy to take the punt at 11.50

Nah don't know about betting against Lemos personally, looks hard to beat there for mine.
 

4THAWN

Club Legend
Mar 25, 2019
2,158
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Hawthorn
Smashed it again, what a card.
winning bets:
trevin jones ko
lemos
KKF ko
kyler phillips
dom cruz dec
rakic
sterling (lucky asf)
blachowicz dec

losing bets:
israel dec
nunes dec
askarov ko
matthews ko
cruz v medic gtd
cruz dec
 

burge13

Norm Smith Medallist
Jan 25, 2019
5,415
10,894
AFL Club
Adelaide
Smashed it again, what a card.
winning bets:
trevin jones ko
lemos
KKF ko
kyler phillips
dom cruz dec
rakic
sterling (lucky asf)
blachowicz dec

losing bets:
israel dec
nunes dec
askarov ko
matthews ko
cruz v medic gtd
cruz dec
Jan decision i won on too, big odds at 950. Posted my main bets earlier in the week and yeah got lucky with Sterling. Added Ulberg KO which was a loss and Nunes sub at 3.10 so pretty good day

Only watched the izzy and nunes fights. Need to catch up on the others
 

4THAWN

Club Legend
Mar 25, 2019
2,158
2,483
AFL Club
Hawthorn
Jan decision i won on too, big odds at 950. Posted my main bets earlier in the week and yeah got lucky with Sterling. Added Ulberg KO which was a loss and Nunes sub at 3.10 so pretty good day

Only watched the izzy and nunes fights. Need to catch up on the others
prelims were banging you have to watch
 

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