UFC Betting

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4THAWN

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Mar 25, 2019
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Prop heavy betting card, had Lins straight out but fight got cancelled

Ray Rodriguez late ko props hoping he can survive the early onslaught
JJ Aldrich KO
Jin Yu Frey KO
topsport got some tasty odds for Tucker v Ige, Tucker Dec 3.95 and Ige KO 9.25 last time i checked would recommend betting those
Also got nasrat in a couple of parlays, think he's probably a good thing and should be winning.
Probs will make more bets tomorrow morning
 

4THAWN

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Got Gillespie @ 1.48 arguably the safest bet on the entire program
Bruno Silva @ 2.85 too, he's around 2.30 now and most of the value has been sucked out of that.
Played Nasrat/Brunson multi @ 3 last week, biggest advantage in the fight is Brunson's wrestling. Holland either needs to drastically improve his takedown defense in a short period of time or find a quick finish which i find unlikely.
Small play yanez dec as well @ 4.5
 

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burge13

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Easier than i thought. Giles/Brunson wins, covers my disaster on Geelong yesterday.

Hope Frankie muders odds keep climbing. Stipe is the HW goat but hes older now, Frankie is landing a bomb in R1 imo
 

burge13

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Like Ngannou
Got the unibet special for R1 @ $5
On him at 1.83 also
Barriault
Theres no thread for boxing but

Whyte 1-6 at 3.10
Tischenko ITD at 2.00
 

NonPhixion

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have also taken the Unibet special
Can lay on Betfair at average odds of $3.70 to lock in free cash.
 

mouncey2franklin

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have also taken the Unibet special
Can lay on Betfair at average odds of $3.70 to lock in free cash.
I too have taken the unibet special.

Thanks to burge for pointing it out. Good odds for what seems to me a 30/70 or even 40/60 outcome.

Still think Stipe will probably win. Haven't decided if I will bet on it or not.

As for NP locking in free cash, how much is it? No offense but are we talking like $15 or something?
 

NonPhixion

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I too have taken the unibet special.

Thanks to burge for pointing it out. Good odds for what seems to me a 30/70 or even 40/60 outcome.

Still think Stipe will probably win. Haven't decided if I will bet on it or not.

As for NP locking in free cash, how much is it? No offense but are we talking like $15 or something?
Ye, not much. But a free meal is a free meal
 

4THAWN

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Unibet restricted me, that sounds like a pretty decent promo. They seem to have pretty good ones from what I can recall, Israel KO $5 vs Costa probably been others.

Got stipe dec 6.20 earlier on nothing too big.

Shane Young ko/dec 3.0 and a poke young ko rd 3

also got Mullarkey v Worthy goes the distance at 2.60 or so.

Omalley dec 4.20 pointsbet

not a great betting card but some okay spots.
 

burge13

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Big upset with Tischenko losing but Dillian Whyte 1-6!! Easy money and o/u 8.5 rounds was even hung out there. Easy under, bad line

Ngannou makes this a tremendous weekend. Having a go on Luque KO with some whyte profits
 

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4THAWN

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Nina Ansaroff is my biggest bet of the card, slight queries on her after pregnancy and a layoff but far more proven than Mackenzie, will have a big striking advantage. Think her takedown defense should hold up fine, Mackenzie only has 5% takedown accuracy in the UFC and is extremely reliant on getting TD's and working from top position here. The 2.80 for decision prop looks overs too.

Kyle Daukaus at 2.10-even money is a decent bet I think. Can win the fight in any way really, KO, Sub or dec. Path to victory is stuffing takedowns and smashing him on the feet. Backed Daukaus KO at 11s too.

Arnold allen dec @ 4 and Alvey dec at 5 on b365 also look fairly good.
 

burge13

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Ansaroff for me as well at 1.95 - long had Dern circled for a fade spot. Trains with the womens goat, should have a big striking advantage and saw that stat re Derns TD%.

I'd go as far to say Dern has some quit in her, if she's standing the full 15 mins a stop wouldn't surprise. Also has lacked good training and cardio previously, old habits return and anything is possible...

Impa Kasanganay was also on that list. Palatnikov is nothing special but he'll fight for your money

Think D-Rod pieces Perry. Really unsure how he's still got a job after losing and multiple troubles outside the cage. Needs help, not more brain damage.
 
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4THAWN

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If you aren't on Impa Kasanganay KO currently $9 on sportsbet idk what you are doing. Might not cash but big overs.
 

burge13

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If you aren't on Impa Kasanganay KO currently $9 on sportsbet idk what you are doing. Might not cash but big overs.
He's never stopped anyone with strikes, even in his early fights against sh*t tier opposition
Sasha has been TKO'd twice though.

Impa doesn't exactly throw with bad intentions. $9 is a big price (into $7 now) but I don't think that's an awesome bet either. I'd price it about there and decision is far and away the most likely outcome
 

4THAWN

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He's never stopped anyone with strikes, even in his early fights against sh*t tier opposition
Sasha has been TKO'd twice though.

Impa doesn't exactly throw with bad intentions. $9 is a big price (into $7 now) but I don't think that's an awesome bet either. I'd price it about there and decision is far and away the most likely outcome
Sasha was getting absolutely wrecked by Cosce before he gassed out. Striking isn't gonna be close here I don't think unless Impa has issues cutting down to WW.

Impa can crack, doesn't gas out historically and is moving down to WW. I'd say the 7s around now is still a good bet, main worry is Impa trying for a sub when he has Sasha rocked. Either standing ko/tko or takedowns into GnP both quite live for Impa.

Agree dec is more likely but I'd be a bit surprised if Impa KO doesn't SP about 5s. Shouldn't be that much of a difference. If it does shorten like I expect, i'll probably hedge on Impa sub.
 

burge13

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Only just saw the cards on at 430am. Not that interesting a card to begin with but that's ensured I don't watch it and therefore won't bother looking at any more bets...

Weak weekend of boxing too.
 

burge13

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Hindsight is great but Nina should have been a "fade the public" spot. Everyone i saw on twitter was on her. Bad weekend so far as i bet the over in the Benn fight (boxing) which ended in R1.

On Anderson R1-2 and R1 (also boxing) to salvage most of the losses. Worst weekend of the year if that misses
 

4THAWN

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Haven't watched most of the card yet, was up about 3.75 units heading into the Dern v Nunes fight and lost it all there. Finished about even although overall i'm happy with the bets.

No one expected 5% TD accuracy dern to get her down easily and make it look like that.
 

mouncey2franklin

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I guess this is the best place to post this.

How is Paul paying $1.70 vs Askren?

I was expecting it to be more like $1.20 vs $4.50, something like that.

Especially after seeing this:



Somebody talk me out of making a 20u or 30u bet on Paul.
 

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