UFC Betting

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burge13

Premiership Player
Jan 25, 2019
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I guess this is the best place to post this.

How is Paul paying $1.70 vs Askren?

I was expecting it to be more like $1.20 vs $4.50, something like that.

Especially after seeing this:



Somebody talk me out of making a 20u or 30u bet on Paul.
Bens always looked like that. Cardio wont be an issue for him. The fact he cant box might be but i wouldnt judge physique alone, he will most likely be the fresher of the 2 if it goes late.

Paul has been training with BJ Flores for a long time so should show huge improvements. No bets for me on this one, just food for thought.
 

4THAWN

Club Legend
Mar 25, 2019
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Small betting card.

Bit of a play Chase Sherman decision @ 6s

juan espino 2.25
espino sub 5
hedge with romanov dec 6.5
can't see romanov finishing personally.
 

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burge13

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Jan 25, 2019
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Death, taxes and Usman by decision is historically safe to live by but why do i get the sense him by T/KO at 3.50 isnt too bad this time...

Pour it on late and have the ref step in. If he wants money fights he needs to start being more exciting. I think it gets to him he isnt popular so perhaps he will take a risk?

Flip side to that is he has never done so before, why start now i guess. Unsure

Brazil cowboy as underdog i like
 

4THAWN

Club Legend
Mar 25, 2019
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Death, taxes and Usman by decision is historically safe to live by but why do i get the sense him by T/KO at 3.50 isnt too bad this time...

Pour it on late and have the ref step in. If he wants money fights he needs to start being more exciting. I think it gets to him he isnt popular so perhaps he will take a risk?

Flip side to that is he has never done so before, why start now i guess. Unsure

Brazil cowboy as underdog i like
i backed usman r3/r4/r5 ko props last time and got burnt. Won't be playing them this time because odds will be worse and the matchup gives usman ko less chance of happening.
 

burge13

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Jan 25, 2019
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i backed usman r3/r4/r5 ko props last time and got burnt. Won't be playing them this time because odds will be worse and the matchup gives usman ko less chance of happening.
I dont think the finish odds are worse? I played decision at 2.20 last time and its 1.91 here.
 

mouncey2franklin

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Jun 16, 2018
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Death, taxes and Usman by decision is historically safe to live by but why do i get the sense him by T/KO at 3.50 isnt too bad this time...

Pour it on late and have the ref step in. If he wants money fights he needs to start being more exciting. I think it gets to him he isnt popular so perhaps he will take a risk?
I'm thinking the same thing.

Might go with Usman win (currently $1.25) and then put an amount equal to the potential winnings on win by T/KO (currently $3.70).

He wins via points and I break even, he wins via T/KO and I make a handy profit.

I don't see him losing.
 

4THAWN

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Mar 25, 2019
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On Rose at 2.62/2.70. Think her cardio issues are overblown, main problems i can see are Weili's leg kicks and the possibility that Rose's nose gets busted again. Happy to take the 2.70 in what i think is closer to a 50/50 fight.

Got Randy brown 1.64 but if i had my time again i'd probably bet the even money for Randy by ko/dec. Should possess the striking/wrestling advantages here.

Stefan Sekulic 2.95 earlier this week might be my favourite bet of the week, although some concerns with his leg injury and subsequent usada suspension.

Got Crute v Smith goes to judges at 3.11, still see value where it currently sits but if it gets to 2.50 i'd probably just pass.
 

burge13

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I think every underdog on the main card won at PFL today. Spewing as Pettis has been on my fade list a long time and i balked at Collard $4.50

Held also stood out near $4 but didnt bet either. Oh well
 

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mouncey2franklin

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Stefan Sekulic 2.95 earlier this week might be my favourite bet of the week, although some concerns with his leg injury and subsequent usada suspension.
Fair call on Sekulic. Lost by split decision, the commentators and crowd clearly had it for Sekulic.

I was on Sekulic for win by sub @ 8s which he was five seconds away from doing in the last round.

Beaten by the buzzer.
 

4THAWN

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Fair call on Sekulic. Lost by split decision, the commentators and crowd clearly had it for Sekulic.

I was on Sekulic for win by sub @ 8s which he was five seconds away from doing in the last round.

Beaten by the buzzer.
man that was BS.

Sekulic won that clearly 29-28 or 30-27 depending on if you give grant or sek r1. R2 and r3 clear sekulic rounds. Just got robbed bigtime.
 

mouncey2franklin

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I like Smith by submission in this one, paying $9 on betfair.

Guy has serious bjj skills, Crute's only loss in the UFC is via submission, I'll take it.

Only paying $1.61 'go the distance - no', and I'm still tempted to load up on that as well.
 

burge13

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Kind of like Reyes as underdog this week. More composed striker, should get plenty of openings. Ive always thought hes overrated AF though so not sure 😂

Think Cub loses, Strickland a decent multi leg and on Parker Decision at 2.70 (boxing)
 

burge13

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Some boxing stuff.

Lara KO @ 1.60
Lara 1-6 @ 3.50
Delboy/Parker goes distance @ 1.90
Parker decision @ 2.75 (added 0.5 to the above)
Ruis/Arreola under 6.5 @ 1.70

Next to nought on UFC for me. Come on degenerates, anything on?
 

4THAWN

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Yeah got Reyes as an underdog. Pretty stupid odds if you ask me. Jiri can win but how can he be the fave in this spot?

Got some Luke Sanders straight out, Colares is pretty horrible.

Also got some Luana Carolina straight out, think that fight will play out closer than odds indicate.

Got some mulits with Chikadze, Lookboome, Strickland and Kamaka. Agree Strickland is a good parlay piece.

Also got some Cutelaba v Jacoby goes to decision at 4s.
 

4THAWN

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Also got Kai Kamaka straight out at 1.67 on lads. Gaping chasm is his game is cardio but this is the first UFC fight where he will have a proper camp, expecting him to look vastly improved and smack TJ brown around.
 

burge13

Premiership Player
Jan 25, 2019
4,985
9,506
AFL Club
Adelaide
Some boxing stuff.

Lara KO @ 1.60
Lara 1-6 @ 3.50
Delboy/Parker goes distance @ 1.90
Parker decision @ 2.75 (added 0.5 to the above)
Ruis/Arreola under 6.5 @ 1.70

Next to nought on UFC for me. Come on degenerates, anything on?
Hope people tailed some of this. Top 4 all won, waiting on Ruis this arvo
 

mouncey2franklin

Norm Smith Medallist
Jun 16, 2018
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Also got Kai Kamaka straight out at 1.67 on lads. Gaping chasm is his game is cardio but this is the first UFC fight where he will have a proper camp, expecting him to look vastly improved and smack TJ brown around.
Kamaka stooged by the judges. One guy 30-27, two guys 28-29.

Second time in a couple of weeks I've tailed on your bets and we've been stooged by the judges.
 
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