UFC Betting

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4THAWN

Club Legend
Mar 25, 2019
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Had a good event despite some judging obstacles.

Jacoby Cutelaba GTD 4s was a big result as was Luana Carolina at 3s (you could've actually gotten 3.40 fixed, absurd)

Giga/Loma/Strick and Giga/Loma multis cashed.

Sanders/Reyes/Kamaka bets all lost but I'd make all of those bets again. Sanders finishes in r1 and everyone is sitting here talking about how that was a mismatch. Reyes landed countless left straights, Jiri's chin was just way too durable. Kamaka won the fight.


I think Philipe Lins looks a bet this week. Going to be the faster, cleaner striker with better footwork against an old Rothwell. Rothwell was making Marcin Tybura look like Tyson Fury in his last fight. I think Lins should handle him.
 

burge13

Norm Smith Medallist
Jan 25, 2019
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Canelo decision or late stoppage tomorrow. If the prop becomes available anywhere to win 'unanimous decision' thats good. He should sweep the cards if it gets there. Late stop 9-12 as a minor hedge

Cissokho rounds 6-10 around $7 is decent.
Sanchez 1-4 at 1.70ish too

UFC - another light card. Dont like anything alot. Lins should get by an old Rothwell, Gillespe pace and wrestling to win a decision, Hill as underdog? Might be worth a stab and im fading Hawes.

Bellator

3 leg multi of Pitbull/Rumble/Archuleta at 2.50

Liked last weeks action more than this one so keeping smaller. See how we go
 

4THAWN

Club Legend
Mar 25, 2019
2,396
2,675
AFL Club
Hawthorn
Canelo decision or late stoppage tomorrow. If the prop becomes available anywhere to win 'unanimous decision' thats good. He should sweep the cards if it gets there. Late stop 9-12 as a minor hedge

Cissokho rounds 6-10 around $7 is decent.
Sanchez 1-4 at 1.70ish too

UFC - another light card. Dont like anything alot. Lins should get by an old Rothwell, Gillespe pace and wrestling to win a decision, Hill as underdog? Might be worth a stab and im fading Hawes.

Bellator

3 leg multi of Pitbull/Rumble/Archuleta at 2.50

Liked last weeks action more than this one so keeping smaller. See how we go

UFC bets are dropping like flies.

Got Ludovit Klein, Hill KO, Greene v Lima goes to decision and some Cerrone v Morono doesn't go to decision.

Got some queally in bellator main event tonight, Patricky Pitbull doesn't deserve his price tag.
 

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burge13

Norm Smith Medallist
Jan 25, 2019
7,877
16,974
AFL Club
Adelaide
UFC bets are dropping like flies.

Got Ludovit Klein, Hill KO, Greene v Lima goes to decision and some Cerrone v Morono doesn't go to decision.

Got some queally in bellator main event tonight, Patricky Pitbull doesn't deserve his price tag.
Didnt realise Lins was canceled. Annoying
 

4THAWN

Club Legend
Mar 25, 2019
2,396
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Hawthorn
Got some queally in bellator main event tonight, Patricky Pitbull doesn't deserve his price tag.
Lol, some BS went my way this time.

Queally appeared to be being comfortably handled and then opened up a cut above Pitbul's eye which caused a soft doctor stoppage before r3.
 

4THAWN

Club Legend
Mar 25, 2019
2,396
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Hawthorn
Lol, some BS went my way this time.

Queally appeared to be being comfortably handled and then opened up a cut above Pitbul's eye which caused a soft doctor stoppage before r3.
LOL judges had Queally up 20-18, 19-19x2 after 2 rounds when he was imo clearly down 18-20
 

4THAWN

Club Legend
Mar 25, 2019
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Also got late Daukaus props like ko3, ko2 and r3 finish.

And some gillespie dec 2.50 on b365. Seems to overwhelmingly likely outcome.
 

burge13

Norm Smith Medallist
Jan 25, 2019
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I was small on Daukaus KO also, had it in the 2nd and fell into the clinch allowing Hawes to recover. He takes half a step back instead of forward there, it probably cashes. Hawes cardio much improved but still a bad chin

Daukaus isnt good
 

mouncey2franklin

Norm Smith Medallist
Jun 16, 2018
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And I get robbed again FFS.

Klein clearly wins r1 and r2 and one judge scores fight 30-27 for Trizano. Can't believe these judges. Corrupt as fu**.
The commentators' response said it all. Bad luck brother, you've been stooged too many times in a row lately.
 

burge13

Norm Smith Medallist
Jan 25, 2019
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I do believe that evens out over time but we as gamblers remember the losses as they sting more than the wins feel good, if that makes sense...

I need Canelo decision to salvage this weekend. Cant all be as good as last but nothing has been good this time around
 

burge13

Norm Smith Medallist
Jan 25, 2019
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Chandler 2.20 (emotional hedge against the lightweight king who hopefully chokes him dead in the first)
Edson 2.10
Dariush Dec 2.50
Ferg R3 (0.1u) 11.00
Chook 1.72
Bontorin 2.30
Jacare 1.85

Maybe Wright 1.90

Looking ahead. I had Font circled ages ago v Cody but odds arent where i thought theyd be. Cody is a great boxer but cant protect his chin. Unsure if ill bet as big as i wanted as odds are about 0.50 off what i thought itd be. Maybe people bet Cody down midweek

Boxing
Figueroa 3.45 - I see Nery as a bit of a weight bully but hes going up here. Fig has inches of height and reach and while he doesnt fight tall its still a noticeable advantage. See how we go
 

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mouncey2franklin

Norm Smith Medallist
Jun 16, 2018
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Am I crazy for liking Lee vs budget Shevchenko?

On a three loss skid but two of those were split decisions.
 

mouncey2franklin

Norm Smith Medallist
Jun 16, 2018
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damn what else you like?

great call!
Seriously I'm on a crazy roll, have called the last four fights, including method of victory for each one.

But I've only put on small bets for each one, rather than just letting it ride and putting the winnings on the next fight.

I'll stick to that strategy because the run is bound to end eventually.

For the next fight I like Grundy, and I like via submission. Will put a small bet on Grundy SU at evens, and sub @ 7s.
 

mouncey2franklin

Norm Smith Medallist
Jun 16, 2018
7,140
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For this one I like 'will fight go distance? - no" @ 1.80.

Can't see 41yo Souza going 15, and in front of fans, the fights seem to finish more than behind closed doors.
 

burge13

Norm Smith Medallist
Jan 25, 2019
7,877
16,974
AFL Club
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For this one I like 'will fight go distance? - no" @ 1.80.

Can't see 41yo Souza going 15, and in front of fans, the fights seem to finish more than behind closed doors.
I didnt check goes distance odds. Surprised it was 1.80 tbh, good get

Im on Edson next. Anything that could go wrong the last week on the punt, has. Apologies in advance for jinxing anyones edson plays!
 

mouncey2franklin

Norm Smith Medallist
Jun 16, 2018
7,140
12,176
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Lads have a main card special: no fights go to judges @ $40

If you multi the 'no' for each fight on sb, it comes out to $20

Obviously the main concern is the girls' fight, but I reckon the rest are all likely to be finishes.

It is almost (not quite) a 40-1 on the girls fight having a stoppage imo. I like those odds. I'm on it.
 

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