UFC Betting

Red Dog Styles

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Feb 13, 2017
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UFC 234
0.75U Whittaker to win via KO/TKO -Pointsbet @4
0.75U Whittaker via unanimous decision - SB @3.50

I think Whittaker takes this. Can’t see him getting a sub, see him getting a late round KO or decision win.
Wouldn't it be better straight up win, rather than splitting like this? Especially using that already mentioned sportsbet promo?

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NonPhixion

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Wouldn't it be better straight up win, rather than splitting like this? Especially using that already mentioned sportsbet promo?

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If you can't see value with your winnings doubled you should probably give up the punt
This way is still more profitable than taking H2H with double winnings promo, I am willing to take the risk that he won’t win via sub.
 

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NonPhixion

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Velasquez vs Ngannou
1u Velasquez via T/KO or sub @1.91
Considering his ML is 1.65 and there is almost no chance this fight goes the distance I’ll take the odds.
 

NonPhixion

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UFC 235:
1u multi on:
Zabit
Garbrandt
Jones @2.51
0.5u Cirkunov @2.31
0.25 Cirkunov via sub @3.60
0.5u Jones via sub @4.20 - should have hit this gold mine harder. now 2.63
One of the best cards the UFC has put together in recent times.
 

NonPhixion

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Well been a little while.. couldn’t help myself to bet on what I think will be fight of the year contender. Ferguson vs Cerrone.
Siding with Ferg @1.48. His style is cowboys weakness. Having said that this will be a cracking fight, cerrone is hard to finish so I will look to play Fergs dec odds.
 

burge13

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Well been a little while.. couldn’t help myself to bet on what I think will be fight of the year contender. Ferguson vs Cerrone.
Siding with Ferg @1.48. His style is cowboys weakness. Having said that this will be a cracking fight, cerrone is hard to finish so I will look to play Fergs dec odds.
I think you'll get better than 1.48 if you wait.

Tony had a breakdown last month while Cerrone won in impressive fashion. Recency bias is big for casual bettors, they will bet Cowboy down IMO. I'm hoping to get Tony at 1.70 or better but I'm more than happy passing to just watch this fight as a fan.
 

NonPhixion

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I think you'll get better than 1.48 if you wait.

Tony had a breakdown last month while Cerrone won in impressive fashion. Recency bias is big for casual bettors, they will bet Cowboy down IMO. I'm hoping to get Tony at 1.70 or better but I'm more than happy passing to just watch this fight as a fan.
Yeh I’m a huge Tony fan. So hope he is back in the right mental state. You could be right, Tony opened around 1.30ish. And he’s always so under-rated, so he could finish 1.50-1.60. I’m still happy to take the current value. It already is for MMA fans but this should be the main event
 

burge13

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Yeh I’m a huge Tony fan. So hope he is back in the right mental state. You could be right, Tony opened around 1.30ish. And he’s always so under-rated, so he could finish 1.50-1.60. I’m still happy to take the current value. It already is for MMA fans but this should be the main event
I like the Marlon/Cejudo title fight but I'd far prefer this be 5 rounds than the rubbish wmma co-main.
 

NonPhixion

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Tony @1.62 with lads. If the line moves any further out its straight up disrespectful. Markets under-rating him hard, people like to cling to the idea that Tony is 'hittable', but there's a reason he's never been KO'd, dude has a granite chin and insane recovery. The only way I see Cowboy Ko'ing him is with a set-up combo head kick. But Tony's constant pressure and stance changing will make it really hard for Cowboy to set combos up. It should be a stand-up fight, but im interested to see what happens on the ground, Tony has some of the very best jiu-jitsu and if he has Cowboy in trouble he can lock in a D'arce very swiftly. Still think he wins a decisive 30-27 decision. Anything over @3 for dec and ill be hitting for 2u
 

burge13

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Marlon in the main event.
Ivanov at $2.47 was huge value but that's come in.
Agree on Ferguson. Actually got 1.67
Think Wineland is decent odds.
Sterling/Munhoz stay away from
WMMA sucks so who cares but KK and Hill not bad odds
 

NonPhixion

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Marlon in the main event.
Ivanov at $2.47 was huge value but that's come in.
Agree on Ferguson. Actually got 1.67
Think Wineland is decent odds.
Sterling/Munhoz stay away from
WMMA sucks so who cares but KK and Hill not bad odds
Damn 2.47, that’s a great price. Tuivasa is over-rated definitely. Style wise could also be a bad match-up. Ivanovo should man-handle him with his grappling.Having said that he still has dangerous power.
 

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burge13

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Damn 2.47, that’s a great price. Tuivasa is over-rated definitely. Style wise could also be a bad match-up. Ivanovo should man-handle him with his grappling.Having said that he still has dangerous power.
Yeah Tai can crack and it's heavyweight so anything can happen but he isn't very good outside the power variance of being big...
scraped by Arlovski, been KO'd 3x already at such a young age. Not good signs IMO.

Pretty large on Marlon. Biggest bet in a while. He's made me quite a bit so hopefully this continues!
 

NonPhixion

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im going to follow you on Moraes.
Couldn't help myself to play this prop - Ferg via sub R3 @31 PB
 

NonPhixion

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Tony gets it done. All the casuals in the crowd booing have no respect for the sport, really annoying. The Late hit wasn’t intentional, just one of those in the moment things. He was piecing him up badly anyway and probably would have finished cowboy had it gone into R3
 

burge13

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Tony gets it done. All the casuals in the crowd booing have no respect for the sport, really annoying. The Late hit wasn’t intentional, just one of those in the moment things. He was piecing him up badly anyway and probably would have finished cowboy had it gone into R3
How'd you go on the card? I did really well in the end other than having too much on Marlon. Haven't seen it but sounds like he gassed in the 2nd which is very early on to be gassing

One thing I should have considered more, Marlon only had about 5 mins of cage time in ages due to quick finishes. Bit of an oversight by me

With any luck, Ferg v Gaethje can be made!
 

NonPhixion

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How'd you go on the card? I did really well in the end other than having too much on Marlon. Haven't seen it but sounds like he gassed in the 2nd which is very early on to be gassing

One thing I should have considered more, Marlon only had about 5 mins of cage time in ages due to quick finishes. Bit of an oversight by me

With any luck, Ferg v Gaethje can be made!
Took away a small profit, had 5u on Ferg SU, 2U on DEC which was probably too much, tailed Marlon SU for 1U. And had 1U Shev via ko/sub. Should have taken Ivanov at early price.
Look that would be a pretty sweet fight but Tony can only fight for the title next, 12 wins in a row in the toughest decision it would be criminal to not let him fight for the belt. I really think he’s the best/most well-rounded Mixed Martial Artist on the planet. I will be waiting for his odds assuming he fights Khabib, I know there will be some nice value. Khabib has to put Tony away early otherwise Tony will monster him in the championship rounds. Khabib’s cardio is over-rated imo. But then again DP could win. I think both fighters will try to somehow duck Tony If they win, khabibs manager constantly talks about a fight with GSP, just bs, the fans need Khabib vs Tony
 

burge13

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Took away a small profit, had 5u on Ferg SU, 2U on DEC which was probably too much, tailed Marlon SU for 1U. And had 1U Shev via ko/sub. Should have taken Ivanov at early price.
Look that would be a pretty sweet fight but Tony can only fight for the title next, 12 wins in a row in the toughest decision it would be criminal to not let him fight for the belt. I really think he’s the best/most well-rounded Mixed Martial Artist on the planet. I will be waiting for his odds assuming he fights Khabib, I know there will be some nice value. Khabib has to put Tony away early otherwise Tony will monster him in the championship rounds. Khabib’s cardio is over-rated imo. But then again DP could win. I think both fighters will try to somehow duck Tony If they win, khabibs manager constantly talks about a fight with GSP, just bs, the fans need Khabib vs Tony
Nice. Yeah I won on Ivanov, Wineland, Ferg, Yan in a multi with a PFL fight. Lost on Marlon and Munhoz

Ferg would be $3+ v Khabib. I think he has value down to $2.50 but Khabib rightful favourite IMO. Youd have to play Ferg rounds 4 & 5 though

I also don't care about title shots anymore. Conor ruined that and 'money fights' are more important to the UFC now so I just want good match ups when they can happen. Ferg/Justin would be fight of the decade so let's see it (no doubt Ferg deserved a title shot 3-4 fights ago)
 

NonPhixion

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Nice. Yeah I won on Ivanov, Wineland, Ferg, Yan in a multi with a PFL fight. Lost on Marlon and Munhoz

Ferg would be $3+ v Khabib. I think he has value down to $2.50 but Khabib rightful favourite IMO. Youd have to play Ferg rounds 4 & 5 though

I also don't care about title shots anymore. Conor ruined that and 'money fights' are more important to the UFC now so I just want good match ups when they can happen. Ferg/Justin would be fight of the decade so let's see it (no doubt Ferg deserved a title shot 3-4 fights ago)
Yeah it’s true. Dana is such a scumbag, oh well. I quite like Jonny bones via sub @4.50. I rekon he will take him down, rag doll him and either GNP finish or sub. Don’t think Jonny will stand and bang with a guy like santos.
Ngannou vs Dos santos FDNGTD - odds will probably be short as f*ck, but if above 1.20 I’ll take it

Masvidal looks like value too, Askren is just a one-trick pony, very sloppy stand up. Masvidal is a dangerous match-up for him imo
 

burge13

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Yeah it’s true. Dana is such a scumbag, oh well. I quite like Jonny bones via sub @4.50. I rekon he will take him down, rag doll him and either GNP finish or sub. Don’t think Jonny will stand and bang with a guy like santos.
Ngannou vs Dos santos FDNGTD - odds will probably be short as f*ck, but if above 1.20 I’ll take it

Masvidal looks like value too, Askren is just a one-trick pony, very sloppy stand up. Masvidal is a dangerous match-up for him imo
I like Ngannou but want better odds. Agree on Bones sub but he didn't really go for much v Smith, this should be easier for the TD and sub though

Pass on Mas/Askren for me. Gun to head I pick Askren via decision.
 

burge13

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Pretty weak card. Got good odds on Dos Santos but that's probably about it for me unless Moicano odds get a little better

Artem/Paulie bare knuckle boxing is on Sunday. Paulie was 1.53 yesterday but they've pulled the odds now. That was a gift - an actual boxer with actual skills v a meme who has more losses than wins and trex arms...
 

NonPhixion

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Pretty weak card. Got good odds on Dos Santos but that's probably about it for me unless Moicano odds get a little better

Artem/Paulie bare knuckle boxing is on Sunday. Paulie was 1.53 yesterday but they've pulled the odds now. That was a gift - an actual boxer with actual skills v a meme who has more losses than wins and trex arms...
Hahaha wow that’s like a Mayweather v McGregor kind of gift. Artem is tough but a complete can, easy money for sure. I’ve been pretty busy with uni haven’t had the time to cap any fights. I’ll be looking at a few spots on the 239 card. I’ve already taken Bones via sub @4.50, absolutely love those odds, probably my favourite bet of the year tbh. If Masvidal pushes out to 2.70+ I’ll jump on board, think he will cause problems for Askren. Nunes + Bones seems a pretty safe 2-leg @1.52 to me, I think only Cyborg and Shev have a chance with Nunes. Holm And everyone else just ain’t on the level of those 3 killers.
 

burge13

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Holm decision at 7s isn't that bad as that is how she would win if she did. Bones sub for sure I like those odds.

Contender Series tomorrow so hope we get odds for that also. Loughnane and Pickett probably the ones to look at there if odds are good (2.00/4.50 respectively I'll bet). De Castro in the main event will be crazy odds but it's HW so anything can happen and Meeks has had next to no cage time in his short career whereas DeCastro has gone to decision and R2 so he has at least faced some adversity...
 

burge13

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De Castro in the main event will be crazy odds but it's HW so anything can happen and Meeks has had next to no cage time in his short career whereas DeCastro has gone to decision and R2 so he has at least faced some adversity...
It wasn't main event but huge underdog here cashes. Saw as high as 6.75 odds!
 

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