Tai has no worries of wrestling, jiu jitsui or a takedown against Lewis. Can just stand and bang.
Tai’s leg kicks will be a problem for Lewis. He will destroy his legs and then take his head.
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Tai has no worries of wrestling, jiu jitsui or a takedown against Lewis. Can just stand and bang.
Tai’s leg kicks will be a problem for Lewis. He will destroy his legs and then take his head.
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I would hardly call that rocked.
Lewis is one dimensional and only has heavy hands.
If Tai can stay technical, and ensure it doesn't become a slugfest, then he takes it.
- May 5, 2014
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Yeah, think Tuivasa should be the favourite for sure, but both men can win.
Lewis has not fared well against guys who are specialist strikers, having been beaten down by all of Gane, JDS and Hunt.
The only two who he's beaten who meet the criteria would be Ngannou (anomalous fight - doesn't count) and Volkov - one of the most lopsided beat downs in the division's history prior to the hail mary finish.
I don't think either guy has particularly good durability, Tuivasa has also been rocked by JDS off what was not a massaive shot initially, and rocked by Ivanov who is largely regarded as a pillow fist; but gotta take the guy with the best kicks and elbows in the division in what is largely otherwise a mirror match-up.
Lewis has not fared well against guys who are specialist strikers, having been beaten down by all of Gane, JDS and Hunt.
The only two who he's beaten who meet the criteria would be Ngannou (anomalous fight - doesn't count) and Volkov - one of the most lopsided beat downs in the division's history prior to the hail mary finish.
I don't think either guy has particularly good durability, Tuivasa has also been rocked by JDS off what was not a massaive shot initially, and rocked by Ivanov who is largely regarded as a pillow fist; but gotta take the guy with the best kicks and elbows in the division in what is largely otherwise a mirror match-up.
Thoughts here? Just Cherant survives to the end? He's pretty trash tier IMO
Ulberg threw 100+ punches last fight and gassed but I doubt Cherant survives that onslaught to get to that point...
Bobby Green line I'm watching. He's a level above and would appear he's learned from his inactivity in fights
6.50 implies Ulberg dec only 15% outcome
sub out of the picture, is 60%+ Ulberg KO really justified?
Not expecting ulberg to make the same mistake he did last time and blast out early. Could see this one being a cruisy early range striking tempo.
I expect ulberg to take an early lead in this style of fight and think he's about 20-25% for a dec win here.
I've definitely not been high on Cherant, but by same token being taken out by a freakish check hook from William Knight doesn't exactly make you chinny. He ate some hard body kicks from Knight who also kicks like a mule and didn't seem overly phased. Just thinking 15% for a ulberg dec is relying a bit too much on him going ape shxt early.
I lean bobby but not paying the juice on him against nasrat at dog money. I've been high on nasrat in previous fights and not willing to get burned betting against him here, especially with Bobby who pretty much never wins a clean/clear striking decision with his style.
Bobby was a great bet and easy money against Iaquinta, who was badly washed and has disgusting striking. Nasrat younger/tougher/better. Although he's been underwhelming against hooker and dropped a round to Garcia, I still think he's got enough potential and is good enough to make this sweaty and even win at a decent clip.
Bobby was a great bet and easy money against Iaquinta, who was badly washed and has disgusting striking. Nasrat younger/tougher/better. Although he's been underwhelming against hooker and dropped a round to Garcia, I still think he's got enough potential and is good enough to make this sweaty and even win at a decent clip.
don't agree he should have gotten the nod but certainly won r3 and it was a competitive fight. Good showing from bobby there.
Fair play if you think nasrat is overrated. Not a heap of evidence to dispute that.
FWIW i don't think ill be betting but if i was forced to make a bet in that fight it might be on Green by dec at +170. That way you're covering bobby's most likely PTV and getting a decent price rather than laying the juice.
0.75u Tuivasa ML 2.62 (365)
0.25u Tuivasa r3 26s (365)
Essentially think this is close to a 50/50 and think tai has the upside from there with his volume/leg kicks/toughness
Derrick wilting late is also on the table. Of course none of this will matter if somebody is instantly decapitated. The key for derrick could be getting himself on the front foot and controlling the cage. If he can do that effectively like he did against Daukaus he gives himself better opportunities to take people's heads off.
0.25u Tuivasa r3 26s (365)
Essentially think this is close to a 50/50 and think tai has the upside from there with his volume/leg kicks/toughness
Derrick wilting late is also on the table. Of course none of this will matter if somebody is instantly decapitated. The key for derrick could be getting himself on the front foot and controlling the cage. If he can do that effectively like he did against Daukaus he gives himself better opportunities to take people's heads off.
- Jun 16, 2018
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Between Derek and Tai, 49 fights, only one win by submission.
It was Derek about 12 years ago.
At odds of 46-1, I'll take a nibble.
It was Derek about 12 years ago.
At odds of 46-1, I'll take a nibble.
toxic
Premium Gold
Goosebumps
toxic
Premium Gold
Kaboom!
Boom. Went hard on this and it paid off.
I actually think it gets pretty tough for Tai now. Needs to tighten up his game if he wants to beat the more technical guys above him like Gane, Stipe, Blaydes, Volkov etc. He's very young for a heavyweight though so has plenty of time.
yeah tai may reach the end of his run soon unfortunately. Gane nightmare matchup for tuivasa. Blaydes probably destroys him if he's not taken out early. Volkov not sure, looked bad against tybura but his best is a lot better. Stipe who knows, could be shot or could have more in the tank.
0.75u Masvidal ML 3.75 (lads) + 0.25u Masvidal Dec 10s (Uni) (edit - lads opened 13s, im taking that)
Can't really see how Colby covers his big favourite price here unless Jorge happens to be cooked and well past his best.
Can't really see how Colby covers his big favourite price here unless Jorge happens to be cooked and well past his best.
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I really liked Bryce Mitchell when that fight was announced but big step up in competition and if Edson can keep the first round upright to eat the legs thatll go a very long way. Hes tough to take down. May even take Edson at dog odds now.
Fully expect a Colby decision. Hes relentless and Mas has more quit in him than Colby does... alot if juice on his moneyline though. Not looked at too much more yet
Fully expect a Colby decision. Hes relentless and Mas has more quit in him than Colby does... alot if juice on his moneyline though. Not looked at too much more yet
RDA isn't the worst bet at long odds
Fiziev is one of my favs but he slows down in R3 and whilst RDA loses to grapplers he fares ok when he's the aggressor with the grappling. I think he might be able to wear Fiz down and if I'm not mistaken this is a 5 round co-main? RDA could well be washed, but Chiesa is big so hard to tell from that. might have a crack at this one
Holland is a scrub but Cowboy is an idiot. Cowboy could win but will probably do stupid s**t instead
Fiziev is one of my favs but he slows down in R3 and whilst RDA loses to grapplers he fares ok when he's the aggressor with the grappling. I think he might be able to wear Fiz down and if I'm not mistaken this is a 5 round co-main? RDA could well be washed, but Chiesa is big so hard to tell from that. might have a crack at this one
Holland is a scrub but Cowboy is an idiot. Cowboy could win but will probably do stupid s**t instead
