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NonPhixion

Shevchenko's Bullet
Mar 27, 2018
2,881
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Cleveland Browns, Tony Ferguson
So I’ve taken a 3U multi on
Mousasi, Jones & Nunes @1.85
I just can’t see any of the three losing.
I haven’t done any tape on Mousasi’s opponent which is never a good idea, but he is by far the best fighter outside of the UFC with DJ. I think he’s probably the best middleweight in the world along with Whittaker. Would love to see him fight stylebender, but he won’t return to the ufc. One of few fighters that actually stuck it up Dana’s ass which I respect haha
 

burge13

Club Legend
Jan 25, 2019
1,998
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Adelaide
Dos Santos cost me yesterday. Opened at 3.20 then came into 1.85 fav (I got 2.76 I think) who lost a decision then Artem won a decision over Paulie. Bad weekend, onto the next
 

NonPhixion

Shevchenko's Bullet
Mar 27, 2018
2,881
3,075
AFL Club
Collingwood
Other Teams
Cleveland Browns, Tony Ferguson
Dos Santos cost me yesterday. Opened at 3.20 then came into 1.85 fav (I got 2.76 I think) who lost a decision then Artem won a decision over Paulie. Bad weekend, onto the next
Wow yeh surprised Artem won, kind of happy for him Paulie’s a bit of a pr*ck.i payed the price for not doing tape on mousasis opponent. Bad, bad mistake, never again. Do you see any odds for Ngannou KO yet?
 

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burge13

Club Legend
Jan 25, 2019
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Wow yeh surprised Artem won, kind of happy for him Paulie’s a bit of a pr*ck.i payed the price for not doing tape on mousasis opponent. Bad, bad mistake, never again. Do you see any odds for Ngannou KO yet?
Nope but it won't be much better than his moneyline. I do think Ngannou sparks him out though. JDS has better boxing but he's going to get hit at some point and not recover

Didn't bet bellator as it was all such heavy favs which I don't usually like playing. Did think Moose would win though
 

NonPhixion

Shevchenko's Bullet
Mar 27, 2018
2,881
3,075
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Collingwood
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Cleveland Browns, Tony Ferguson
Ngannou Rd 1 ko @2.55 is certainly tempting. I rekon it’s close to a 50/50.
Watching JDS against Tuivasa, there were moments when Tai had him backed up against the cage and was landing heavy shots, you just can’t take those shots from a monster like Ngannou, and at this point I don’t trust JDS’s chin for him to survive past Rd 1.
Bones sub line out to @5 now. Seems kind of crazy for the goat’s most likely path to victory.
Would love to see Jon move up and fight Ngannou or Stipe. Stipe would probably be his toughest fight imo.
 

NonPhixion

Shevchenko's Bullet
Mar 27, 2018
2,881
3,075
AFL Club
Collingwood
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Cleveland Browns, Tony Ferguson
Note to self: don’t bet on Jones to win ITD. He deliberately challenges himself in fights for some reason, legitimately no idea why he didn’t take Santos down
 

burge13

Club Legend
Jan 25, 2019
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That was pathetic from Jones. He's either lost a step (I think this is the case) or he was injured.

Didn't go for a single TD against a 1 legged 185er who got subbed by Spicely in the first
Didn't throw a single jab in 25 minutes

He may be the goat but his reign is soon over. That was an insipid performance, little wonder he won't fight DC again or go up to HW...
 

NonPhixion

Shevchenko's Bullet
Mar 27, 2018
2,881
3,075
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Cleveland Browns, Tony Ferguson
That was pathetic from Jones. He's either lost a step (I think this is the case) or he was injured.

Didn't go for a single TD against a 1 legged 185er who got subbed by Spicely in the first
Didn't throw a single jab in 25 minutes

He may be the goat but his reign is soon over. That was an insipid performance, little wonder he won't fight DC again or go up to HW...
Yeh it was a strange fight he fought. My boy Masvidal with the wild KO, probably could have done without the follow up though. Masvidal vs Colby would be interesting
 

burge13

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Jan 25, 2019
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Think Mas is getting title shot off that tbh. If Colby was getting one they'd have done it by now

Got a feeling Askren will fight Till & Jones v Brock will get made. Think they wanted Rockhold/Bones for MSG but now they're left with little to do for November and ESPN will offer Brock a top up on his UFC deal (ESPN pay UFC a guarantee so if they want really big fights, they'll need to pay. Makes no difference to UFC atm). Just a gut feel on Brock
 

NonPhixion

Shevchenko's Bullet
Mar 27, 2018
2,881
3,075
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Cleveland Browns, Tony Ferguson
Think Mas is getting title shot off that tbh. If Colby was getting one they'd have done it by now

Got a feeling Askren will fight Till & Jones v Brock will get made. Think they wanted Rockhold/Bones for MSG but now they're left with little to do for November and ESPN will offer Brock a top up on his UFC deal (ESPN pay UFC a guarantee so if they want really big fights, they'll need to pay. Makes no difference to UFC atm). Just a gut feel on Brock
As a practitioner the Brock V Jones fight is a bit embarrassing, I get it’s a money fight, but it’s a Mayweather/McGregor situation. I’d be dumping half my bankroll on Jones if the price was right. Brock’s standup is legit garbage. Don’t mind Stipe against DC, think he will have improved & learned from the first fight. Could be DC’s last fight
 

NonPhixion

Shevchenko's Bullet
Mar 27, 2018
2,881
3,075
AFL Club
Collingwood
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Cleveland Browns, Tony Ferguson
I don’t have anything really. I’m bad at MMA betting so I kind of avoid it now haha.
pointsbet have a nice promo - Conor to win in Rd 1,2 or 3 $2.50 - max bet only $50 but it’s still nice. Although PB always engineer good promos like this that never win.
 

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burge13

Club Legend
Jan 25, 2019
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Cant believe CDF got as good as 1.47 pre fight. Absolute gift against one of the most overrated and finished guys in the division. Im not sure pettis beats anyone in the top 20 anymore...

Next week im irresponsibly big on RDA. I just cannot fathom a path to victory for Chiesa outside some meme, low % fluke or injury. RDA has every advantage here and is 1.48 - probably the best line available right now.

Jones odds keep climbing too, hes up to 1.23 which i think is too much. Easiest fight in his career just about...
 

Bucking Bronco

Team Captain
May 5, 2014
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So keen for this card. This might be the most stacked fight card ever assembled.
im going to live-bet Ferguson hard after round 1.
also have some cheeky bets on Ngannou to win via submission.
got any action mate ?
Yeah, I think Ngannou by submission is almost his most likely way to win.

I think Roz is going to school him, but we'll see.

Just don't rate Ngannou and never have. Think Gane, Pavlovich and Blaydes are the elite of the future of the current roster and will reign over the division for a long time to come unless others come through too.

Think Ferg and Gaethje is pretty close to a toss-up, but I'm leaning Gaethje enough to bet because of how sloppy and ungainly Ferguson can be, and with the power giving him the ability to make Ferguson pay, I think Gaethje's pretty good odds with the line going out to mid-to-high $2s.

Gaethje has been known to gas in his early fights in the UFC pretty quickly, but he did appear to be exercising a lot more caution in his most recent fight vs. Cowboy, and he did say on the one bit of media I've seen from him when he was on Schaub's hotdog show thing, that he feels he has the cardio to easily do 25 minutes fighting with his new approach, so I would be looking more like 3rd at the earliest to go for Ferguson, but what would I know.

I think Gaethje by early KO is most likely outcome - R1 my tip - and if not, then Ferguson sub from 3rd round onwards but we'll see what happens.
 

NonPhixion

Shevchenko's Bullet
Mar 27, 2018
2,881
3,075
AFL Club
Collingwood
Other Teams
Cleveland Browns, Tony Ferguson
Yeah, I think Ngannou by submission is almost his most likely way to win.

I think Roz is going to school him, but we'll see.

Just don't rate Ngannou and never have. Think Gane, Pavlovich and Blaydes are the elite of the future of the current roster and will reign over the division for a long time to come unless others come through too.

Think Ferg and Gaethje is pretty close to a toss-up, but I'm leaning Gaethje enough to bet because of how sloppy and ungainly Ferguson can be, and with the power giving him the ability to make Ferguson pay, I think Gaethje's pretty good odds with the line going out to mid-to-high $2s.

Gaethje has been known to gas in his early fights in the UFC pretty quickly, but he did appear to be exercising a lot more caution in his most recent fight vs. Cowboy, and he did say on the one bit of media I've seen from him when he was on Schaub's hotdog show thing, that he feels he has the cardio to easily do 25 minutes fighting with his new approach, so I would be looking more like 3rd at the earliest to go for Ferguson, but what would I know.

I think Gaethje by early KO is most likely outcome - R1 my tip - and if not, then Ferguson sub from 3rd round onwards but we'll see what happens.
appreciate the write up. its good to get some MMA betting discussion on this board.
Im the biggest Tony fan you will ever meet, so what I say might be a little bias. But about 3-4 months ago when Ferg was scheduled to fight Khabib, I thought that Gaethje was the worst possible match-up for him, I still do, but im not so high on JG given these circumstances and after listening to his media talks with Okamoto ive lost all confidence in him. He says straight up that he is not confident about this fight, hes extremely open with his talks. Just thinking about the difference in training camps as well. This coronavirus situation has had no impact on Tony's training regime, hes been training like this for years and has been training hard for Khabib for the last 6 months. Justin on the other hand has had nowhere near the camp needed to be at his best, and imo he is ill-prepared for this fight. That being said I still give him a chance of a R1 KO, but even still I think that someone almost has to kill Tony to fully put him out. After R1 I give Justin about a 5% chance of winning, and from there I can see Tony winning via submission in either rounds 3 or 4. Ive asked Sportsbet for some BYO specific markets for the fight but I don't think they are going to put them up haha. Going very large on Tony live after R1, and to lurkers reading this if you watch the fight and get odds of anything better than $1.50 take it for as much as you can. thank me later ;)
 

NonPhixion

Shevchenko's Bullet
Mar 27, 2018
2,881
3,075
AFL Club
Collingwood
Other Teams
Cleveland Browns, Tony Ferguson
Ladbrokes:
Ngannou Rd 1 sub $26
Rd 2 sub $51
Rd 3 sub $101
Crazy odds
 

burge13

Club Legend
Jan 25, 2019
1,998
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Ferguson round 4, 5 or by decision is 3.20 which I don't mind.
Stephens decision 6.50
I've spoken about Pettis in the MMA thread. On him win 1.70, KO 4.60 & KO1 7.50

Sportsbet 3 leg multi and if 1 loses, cash back.
Luque, Hardy + whoever you like. I've done it with Stephens
 

NonPhixion

Shevchenko's Bullet
Mar 27, 2018
2,881
3,075
AFL Club
Collingwood
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Cleveland Browns, Tony Ferguson
theres some promos going around
Unibet have Ferguson to win via sub $6 which is amazing odds, but only a max bet of $25.. just take it though
BetEasy of all bookies actually have some promos worth a look too - Greg Hardy by KO $2.80, Cejudo DEC $3.20

Another interesting market on TopSport:
Fastest finish of the night - Greg Hardy $10. I really like this one, I think he should be at the top of the list. Hardy doesn't like to be in the octagon too long and I can see a lot of the other fights atleast going to round 2, the only one id be worried about is Werdum finishing Oleynik fast.
 

NonPhixion

Shevchenko's Bullet
Mar 27, 2018
2,881
3,075
AFL Club
Collingwood
Other Teams
Cleveland Browns, Tony Ferguson
SB bets on tap
Cejudo to win, have most takedowns & most significant strikes $5.
seems good to me, I don’t think there are many parallel universes where Cruz takes him down, so he should only need 1 takedown in what is a good chance to go to the scorecards
 

4THAWN

Club Legend
Mar 25, 2019
1,771
2,104
AFL Club
Hawthorn
Bets for the Woodley v Burns card

2U - Jamahal Hill to win @ 1.80

1U - Brandon Royval to win @2.50

1U- Spike Carlyle to win @2.25

1U on the multi with these 3 paying 10.12
 

NonPhixion

Shevchenko's Bullet
Mar 27, 2018
2,881
3,075
AFL Club
Collingwood
Other Teams
Cleveland Browns, Tony Ferguson
Bets for the Woodley v Burns card

2U - Jamahal Hill to win @ 1.80

1U - Brandon Royval to win @2.50

1U- Spike Carlyle to win @2.25

1U on the multi with these 3 paying 10.12
welcome.
Nice work there, you are ahead of lines on all 3 bets.
Unibet have Woodley to win via KO $4. Pretty healthy boost. Personally don't see any spots on this card for me.
Sportsbet have tightened those prop markets in rounds, they use to have very loose odds on markets like Fighter X to win via Ko/Sub in Rd X
 

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