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4THAWN

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welcome.
Nice work there, you are ahead of lines on all 3 bets.
Unibet have Woodley to win via KO $4. Pretty healthy boost. Personally don't see any spots on this card for me.
Sportsbet have tightened those prop markets in rounds, they use to have very loose odds on markets like Fighter X to win via Ko/Sub in Rd X
Yeah $4 for the KO on Woodley and you could almost play Burns @ 2.50 too. Dont see Woodley submitting Burns so only losing outcome would be a Woodley decision (which is pretty possible).

Really like Jamahal Hill. He'd be my Best bet of the card.
 

NonPhixion

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Yeah $4 for the KO on Woodley and you could almost play Burns @ 2.50 too. Dont see Woodley submitting Burns so only losing outcome would be a Woodley decision (which is pretty possible).

Really like Jamahal Hill. He'd be my Best bet of the card.
you can lay Woodley on BetFair for free money, albeit a small amount
 

NonPhixion

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Time to have some fun:
0.05U - Atleast 8 fights on card to end via SUB $2001 (Ill retire from punting if this gets up)
0.1U - Atleast 7 fights on card to end via SUB $251
0.1U - Atleast 6 fights on card to end via SUB $41
BetEasy
(11 fights)
1st time trying this out, but this card really stands out as one where there is potential for lots of submission wins. Of course I could look stupid and no fight ends in a sub, but willing to take a stab on a card that has more sub potential than most do.
 

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NonPhixion

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really needed that Chookagian SUB... how the fk did she not get it lol.
 

4THAWN

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live-bet Quarantillo at the end of R1 $2.20
great punting my man.

I watched the first round (spyke's a fu*kwit) and then had a multi with Quarantillo decision (paying $4 after round 1, no idea how they let me get these odds, mackenzie dern to win @ 1.25 and Burns to win @ 2.50). Managed to make the most out of a bad situation where spyke was gassing without being able to get the finish.
 

NonPhixion

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great punting my man.

I watched the first round (spyke's a fu*kwit) and then had a multi with Quarantillo decision (paying $4 after round 1, no idea how they let me get these odds, mackenzie dern to win @ 1.25 and Burns to win @ 2.50). Managed to make the most out of a bad situation where spyke was gassing without being able to get the finish.
yeh, will admit I felt pretty lucky getting that decision. I would have scored that fight a draw. but after being on the wrong end of the Barboza/Ige DEC last weekend ill take it.
Looking ahead to this weekend, I really like Felicia Spencer DEC - $15. I think there is some really nice value here, if I had to price it myself id have her around $7.50-8.
I cant really say too many bad things about Nunes, but I think she is just a little bit over-rated by most in the UFC media & thus prices reflect this. If she starts to gas, Spencer could control this fight from the ground & i see her squeaking a decision atleast 10% of the time. Stylistically, Spencer is the type of fighter to pose the most problems for Nunes IMO.
 

burge13

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yeh, will admit I felt pretty lucky getting that decision. I would have scored that fight a draw. but after being on the wrong end of the Barboza/Ige DEC last weekend ill take it.
Looking ahead to this weekend, I really like Felicia Spencer DEC - $15. I think there is some really nice value here, if I had to price it myself id have her around $7.50-8.
I cant really say too many bad things about Nunes, but I think she is just a little bit over-rated by most in the UFC media & thus prices reflect this. If she starts to gas, Spencer could control this fight from the ground & i see her squeaking a decision atleast 10% of the time. Stylistically, Spencer is the type of fighter to pose the most problems for Nunes IMO.
I like Hooper this weekend. Caceres is a flake
Shame odds have come in a bit but look for ITD markets too. Think there's value down to $1.55

Edit: sub is 5.50 and ITD is 2.50 - on both.

Wineland $4.70 probably has a better chance than odds indicate. Big step up from Soukemtath, Quinones and Ware.
 
Last edited:

4THAWN

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yeh, will admit I felt pretty lucky getting that decision. I would have scored that fight a draw. but after being on the wrong end of the Barboza/Ige DEC last weekend ill take it.
hahah that's funny because I was on the "right" end of that Barboza/Ige decision and now here I am on the wrong end of the carlyle one lmao
 

4THAWN

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2U - Sandhagen/Burns Multi($2.80)
0.5U saver play on Dunham by decision/Sandhagen multi paying $9.80
1.5U - Neil Magny ($1.66)
1.5U - Raphael Assuncao ($2.25)
0.5 U - Magny by KO/TKO ($7)
 

NonPhixion

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I just re-watched the Cyborg/Spencer fight.
I really think the odds on Nunes/Spencer are too wide. Initially I was going to play Spencer DEC at $15. But now I think about it and it will be extremely hard for her to win a decision, she will have to win atleast 4 rounds because any close decision will go to Nunes. The politics and all. So now Im going to look at Spencer ITD. or even just take the ML.

Things that stood out from the Cyborg fight:
Spencer was so much stronger in the clinch and she manhandled Cyborg, I see no reason why she cant do this to Nunes, in fact im sure she will be able to. Cyborg threw some deadly knees in a lot of exchanges that threw her off, I don't think Nunes poses this particular threat. She almost took Cyborg down in both rounds 1 & 2 and kept coming forward the whole fight looking for the TD. Over 5 rounds I think she can get Nunes down on the mat a couple times and from there she can go to work.
The issue with Spencer is her low volume on the feet, but she took some bombs from Cyborg, i think her chin can hold up here and she surprisingly has pretty good cardio for a 5 round fight.
 

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NonPhixion

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0.1U on all of these:
Spencer KO R3 $91
KO R4 $126
KO R5 $201
SUB R3 $51
SUB R4 $61
SUB R5 $91

Pointsbet.
I know ive back tracked with the DEC bet, but after doing some tape, I give her a cardio advantage and she is more than capable of finishing the fight on the ground in the championship rounds, either GnP or club & sub. If it means anything she is forecasting a 4th round finish in her interview with Ariel, obviously im not basing that around my betting but I really like her mindset going into this fight.
 

burge13

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0.1U on all of these:
Spencer KO R3 $91
KO R4 $126
KO R5 $201
SUB R3 $51
SUB R4 $61
SUB R5 $91

Pointsbet.
I know ive back tracked with the DEC bet, but after doing some tape, I give her a cardio advantage and she is more than capable of finishing the fight on the ground in the championship rounds, either GnP or club & sub. If it means anything she is forecasting a 4th round finish in her interview with Ariel, obviously im not basing that around my betting but I really like her mindset going into this fight.
Has Spencer got a good record of takedowns and control time ion previous fights? I've only seen the Cyborg fight which was tremendously one sided despite Joe's biased commentary to discredit Cyborg on the last fight (I think) of her contract. I won't be rewatching to jig the memory though so maybe I remember wrong and it wasn't so bad

Has Nunes been taken down all that often? I don't remember this being the case. She shrugged off Holm and Rousey. Did Tate, Rocky etc have success?

If (big if IMO) both of these things favour Spencer you're probably onto something but Nunes is the wmma goat, I've no reason to fade her yet. She's fought the who's who too, not scrubs and soccer mums like Spencer. No bet for me but if you're confident really in her grappling I might blind tail if I'm home to watch the fight

Hooper odds have come right in, everyone is on him. I should cash out and bet Caceres, hate being on the same side as everyone.
Taking a lot to not bet Cody reasonably big too. Will ponder further

Byrd closes a multi for me too, bet Pitolo. I never win multi's LOL
 

NonPhixion

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Has Spencer got a good record of takedowns and control time ion previous fights? I've only seen the Cyborg fight which was tremendously one sided despite Joe's biased commentary to discredit Cyborg on the last fight (I think) of her contract. I won't be rewatching to jig the memory though so maybe I remember wrong and it wasn't so bad

Has Nunes been taken down all that often? I don't remember this being the case. She shrugged off Holm and Rousey. Did Tate, Rocky etc have success?

If (big if IMO) both of these things favour Spencer you're probably onto something but Nunes is the wmma goat, I've no reason to fade her yet. She's fought the who's who too, not scrubs and soccer mums like Spencer. No bet for me but if you're confident really in her grappling I might blind tail if I'm home to watch the fight

Hooper odds have come right in, everyone is on him. I should cash out and bet Caceres, hate being on the same side as everyone.
Taking a lot to not bet Cody reasonably big too. Will ponder further

Byrd closes a multi for me too, bet Pitolo. I never win multi's LOL
Look I still think Nunes will win this fight. But, to me there is value on Spencer. She has crazy strength & if Nunes can’t put her away early, this will be interesting. And to be fair we really haven’t seen Nunes grapple with someone like Spencer in a long time. Rousey couldn’t take her punches and got smoked before any grappling exchange, much the same with Tate. Her other fights have all been against primary strikers. Holm, GDR, Shev (she lost the 2nd fight).
Having said all this Nunes could find the chin and put her out, but at the price I’m keen to have a look.
 

4THAWN

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I just re-watched the Cyborg/Spencer fight.
I really think the odds on Nunes/Spencer are too wide. Initially I was going to play Spencer DEC at $15. But now I think about it and it will be extremely hard for her to win a decision, she will have to win atleast 4 rounds because any close decision will go to Nunes. The politics and all. So now Im going to look at Spencer ITD. or even just take the ML.

Things that stood out from the Cyborg fight:
Spencer was so much stronger in the clinch and she manhandled Cyborg, I see no reason why she cant do this to Nunes, in fact im sure she will be able to. Cyborg threw some deadly knees in a lot of exchanges that threw her off, I don't think Nunes poses this particular threat. She almost took Cyborg down in both rounds 1 & 2 and kept coming forward the whole fight looking for the TD. Over 5 rounds I think she can get Nunes down on the mat a couple times and from there she can go to work.
The issue with Spencer is her low volume on the feet, but she took some bombs from Cyborg, i think her chin can hold up here and she surprisingly has pretty good cardio for a 5 round fight.
I've watched the Cyborg fight twice and what stood out to me was Spencer being completely outclassed on the feet. I give her a punchers chance to KO Nunes, which is possible given Nunes does sometimes go in there and brawl (thinking of the Cyborg fight mainly). Don't see Spencer taking Nunes down, Cyborg is the only real good opposition she's faced and she didn't get a takedown through the entire 3 rounds.

She has a takedown on Megan Anderson - taken down in 3 of her 5 ufc fights

She has a takedown on Zarah Fairn - Taken down and finished in the first round of both UFC fights

I personally don't like her chances of taking the goat down, and even if she does the smaller cage will mean an easier time for Nunes getting back to her feet.

Will be completely outmatched on the feet, her greatest aspect on the feet is her chin/toughness. For a taekwondo black belt she doesn't utilise her skills very well imo.

Nunes by KO round 2
 

4THAWN

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Hooper odds have come right in, everyone is on him. I should cash out and bet Caceres, hate being on the same side as everyone.
Taking a lot to not bet Cody reasonably big too. Will ponder further

Byrd closes a multi for me too, bet Pitolo. I never win multi's LOL
I'm not so sure Hooper is a good thing in that fight. I think Caceres may have almost if not just as much of an advantage on the feet as Chase does on the ground. Yes Caceres was subbed recently but that was Kron Gracie and Hooper is no Gracie just yet.

Pitolo has some of the worst striking defense I've seen. Byrd is just an old battler and I wouldn't feel safe with my cash on him.
 

burge13

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I'm not so sure Hooper is a good thing in that fight. I think Caceres may have almost if not just as much of an advantage on the feet as Chase does on the ground. Yes Caceres was subbed recently but that was Kron Gracie and Hooper is no Gracie just yet.

Pitolo has some of the worst striking defense I've seen. Byrd is just an old battler and I wouldn't feel safe with my cash on him.
Pitolo should be at 170 and bottom of the barrel. Byrd 'should' roll here but yeah its sadly risky.

Caceres is a flake, not 2 ways about it BUT Hooper is a pretty weak kid with bad striking defence. Thing is, Caceres has no power in his hands and not the best TDD. FWIW myHooper bets are at way better odds than on offer now
 

4THAWN

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I reckon the market is wrong in the co-main

Assuncaou should be 1.80 or lower and Garbrant 2.00 or higher.

Cody's resume is beating a washed Dominic Cruz.

Assuncao has beaten Dillashaw, Muhnoz, Caraway, Sterling, Moraes and Font. His losses are also more respectable than Garbrants.

Will be interesting to see what Cody's approach is, I've watched all his UFC fights and they've all been the same. I can't see him out-pointing Assuncao or getting the better of the grappling exchanges, and if Cody wants to brawl again then I'll take Raphael's chin/power at + odds over Cody
 

burge13

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I reckon the market is wrong in the co-main

Assuncaou should be 1.80 or lower and Garbrant 2.00 or higher.

Cody's resume is beating a washed Dominic Cruz.

Assuncao has beaten Dillashaw, Muhnoz, Caraway, Sterling, Moraes and Font. His losses are also more respectable than Garbrants.

Will be interesting to see what Cody's approach is, I've watched all his UFC fights and they've all been the same. I can't see him out-pointing Assuncao or getting the better of the grappling exchanges, and if Cody wants to brawl again then I'll take Raphael's chin/power at + odds over Cody
Interesting and some good points despite me liking Cody.

RA has almost no finishes, he rarely hurts people. Cody has more power for sure, but a worse chin. Speed should favour Cody. Grappling probably wont matter much

Strength of schedule for sure, RA has a better resume. Hes old now though. Really interesting fight. I havent yet but Cody 1.75 or better im hoping for but if you really favour RA surely you go harder than 1.5U?
 

4THAWN

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Interesting and some good points despite me liking Cody.

RA has almost no finishes, he rarely hurts people. Cody has more power for sure, but a worse chin. Speed should favour Cody. Grappling probably wont matter much

Strength of schedule for sure, RA has a better resume. Hes old now though. Really interesting fight. I havent yet but Cody 1.75 or better im hoping for but if you really favour RA surely you go harder than 1.5U?
can't get too invested in a cody fight because I'm not sure exactly what I'm going to see from him.

Based on his past fights he'll brawl. But considering 3 KO losses and time off/new camp, you'd think he's going to change it up now.
 

NonPhixion

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I like this prop:
Nunes most sig strikes & Spencer most TD's $3.75 - SB BYO
Generally, these BYO's are terrible, but see value in this one. id price it around $2.
Most of the time Spencer will only need 1 TD as I don't see Nunes wanting/being able to take her down. Nunes probably has most sig strikes atleast 80% of the time, even factoring in variance of where she might lose but still have most sig strikes.
 

NonPhixion

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well that aged poorly for me. Nunes dominant in victory.

I might just start tailing you 2 blokes on MMA haha. I take my punting extremely seriously and it pains me to say its the only sport I cant turn a profit.
It would be so much more profitable for AUS punters to be able to live-bet online for MMA. There is always opportunities to live-bet fighters with a big cardio advantage in fights but by the time you call up the bookie and try and get the bet on the odds have changed dramatically.
Anyway hope you blokes did alright on the card. I lost 1.6U on all those Spencer bets for the card
 

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