UFC Betting

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4THAWN

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Mar 25, 2019
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Round totals available anywhere? I'd take U1.5 at 1.90ish
Fight doesn't start R3 is 1.68 at sportsbet. Don't mind it though I think once it's past 7 mins it'll go the distance more often than not

Gus R3 or Decision $2.50 isn't the worst

Ronson might be underrated a little here. Dalby isn't some killer worthy of 1.30 favourtism and Ronson does everything well but not excellently

Rua Decision risky but think he'll wrestle. Clear advantage there
Of note, 4/9 of Paul Craig's UFC bouts have finished in round 3.

Can't see the round totals anywhere. Think the bookies are struggling to keep up with all the fights including Bellator and upcoming cards.

Pretty f%ked that none of the prelim fights have markets other than h2h available anywhere in Aus.

Werdum was a literal punching bag against Oliniek, Gus is a big chance to finish him early days imo.
 

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burge13

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Oliviera/Sobotta FOTN at $9.50 is not the worst. Till/Rob is favourite at $2 but Till is in many boring fights and if Rob fights cautiously after being KO'd, that's no chance of winning

One benefit to Oliv/Sob is Oliv incredibly low fight IQ. He has rocks for brains which leads to good fights

Craig/Antigulov also not without a chance at $10. Should be back and forth...
 

4THAWN

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Oliviera/Sobotta FOTN at $9.50 is not the worst. Till/Rob is favourite at $2 but Till is in many boring fights and if Rob fights cautiously after being KO'd, that's no chance of winning

One benefit to Oliv/Sob is Oliv incredibly low fight IQ. He has rocks for brains which leads to good fights

Craig/Antigulov also not without a chance at $10. Should be back and forth...
remember its a 15 fight card so lots of chances for FOTN.

Personally think $1.45 for Tom Aspinall is great value. Outside of the chance he gets bad octagon jitters and flops, I think he definitely wins this fight.

Not only is he a more skilled fighter but he's fight Jake Collier, a middleweight who's since had 2 fights at LHW (looking ordinary) and now moving upto HW.
He'll either be outsized or out of shape.
 

burge13

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remember its a 15 fight card so lots of chances for FOTN.

Personally think $1.45 for Tom Aspinall is great value. Outside of the chance he gets bad octagon jitters and flops, I think he definitely wins this fight.

Not only is he a more skilled fighter but he's fight Jake Collier, a middleweight who's since had 2 fights at LHW (looking ordinary) and now moving upto HW.
He'll either be outsized or out of shape.
FOTN bets are fun, nothing more.

Heard good things about Aspinall
 

4THAWN

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FOTN bets are fun, nothing more.

Heard good things about Aspinall
I'm seeing Aspinall as one of the future heavyweight contenders.

You simply just do not see Heavyweights that are such fluid/loose strikers as Aspinall. Boxing skill is off the charts for a heavyweight. Not to mention he's a British champion no-gi BJJ practitioner as well.
 

4THAWN

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+1.7 units for the card. Got some really juicy prices relative to starting price as well. (Also landed the first leg in some multis)

Herbert was trading $1.02 on sportsbet live betting after round 2, amazing that he lost.

Also thought Grundy was going to get that Darce choke and get me the cash at big odds. Oh well still a profitable event.

btw you can see all my bets at https://www.betmma.tips/PuntingPatto
 

4THAWN

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Contender Series starts in 35 minutes.

Been quite a substantial drift on Kevin Syler from 1.57 out to 2.05 on some books.

Should be winning, don't really know why the money has come for his opponent. Likely based off the weigh ins but Syler looks no worse than usual and made weight.
 

4THAWN

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Contender Series starts in 35 minutes.

Been quite a substantial drift on Kevin Syler from 1.57 out to 2.05 on some books.

Should be winning, don't really know why the money has come for his opponent. Likely based off the weigh ins but Syler looks no worse than usual and made weight.
lmao that was disgusting

he drifted badly and fought like it too
 

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burge13

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I bet Cross just on a friends tip, not my own. Syler lacked athleticism to do anything though. Looked average at best
Cross should have just kept it standing, had a big enough advantage there. Was never winning the contract the way he fought

Parisian is terrible. Fade moving forward

Reyes cruises through Jan at 253 - $1.46 is better than bank interest.
 

NonPhixion

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Overeem $1.70 on Betfair is just flat out madness. Very confident he steamrolls Sakai who is a walking punching bag
 

4THAWN

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Overeem $1.70 on Betfair is just flat out madness. Very confident he steamrolls Sakai who is a walking punching bag
Think the reem might also look to wrestle here.

Sakai got away with a blatant fence grab vs Blagoy Ivanov that essentially won him the fight.

No secret that Overeem has been working on his wrestling/grappling since being brutalised by Curtis Blaydes.
 

burge13

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O1.5 probably worth a look once it opens also. I like Reem, he has every advantage other than chin but he doesn't quit when touched so I think that issue is slightly overblown
 

4THAWN

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On Jalin Turner @ 2.65 (sportsbet) and Viviane Araujo @ 1.53 (365)

Turner is a massive lightweight with a pretty decent striking advantage here. Moises is the better grappler, but does have a tendency to struggle with his wrestling and resort to pulling guard to get the fight to the mat.

Araujo also has a pretty clear striking advantage, as well as boasting 100% takedown defense so far in her UFC career. De La Rosa will be looking for takedowns but personally don't see her getting any. Araujo is no slouch when it comes to grappling either, and is in my opinion not outmatched in the wrestling or grappling here.

Would really be surprised to see the 2.65 for Jalin Turner not get snapped up unless he comes out and looks shocking at weigh ins or something.
 

Bucking Bronco

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Does anyone use Parimatch to bet on UFC?

In case anyone is not familiar with it, it is a Russian site with by far the best odds for UFC fights.

They also have odds available wayy out from the event, allowing you to snipe some good odds before the money starts flowing in during fight week and the like.

Just wondering if anyone knows if it's possible to register with them and place bets without any dramas in Australia?
 

NonPhixion

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Does anyone use Parimatch to bet on UFC?

In case anyone is not familiar with it, it is a Russian site with by far the best odds for UFC fights.

They also have odds available wayy out from the event, allowing you to snipe some good odds before the money starts flowing in during fight week and the like.

Just wondering if anyone knows if it's possible to register with them and place bets without any dramas in Australia?
Haven’t heard of them. Might look into it. anyway I’ve got something for the lads here.
Thank me later.
almost risk free middle for the weekends ME
O1.5 rounds $1.51 - stake of $153 on BE
U2.5 rounds $2.85 - stake of $80 on PB.
Max liability: $5
Potential Profit: $226.03.
 

4THAWN

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Does anyone use Parimatch to bet on UFC?

In case anyone is not familiar with it, it is a Russian site with by far the best odds for UFC fights.

They also have odds available wayy out from the event, allowing you to snipe some good odds before the money starts flowing in during fight week and the like.

Just wondering if anyone knows if it's possible to register with them and place bets without any dramas in Australia?
never used or heard of it mate.
 

Bucking Bronco

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never used or heard of it mate.
Where do you bet on your MMA then?

All the Aussie books don't really release odds unless it's a marquee fight until fight week, and same deal with Betfair.

All the overseas books seem off limits to Aussies.

Sakai was $3.30 on Parimatch for weeks and I was hoping to get on him, and now that the fight has finally been made available on the Aus books his odds are almost a dollar less.

Frustrating because I had been watching those odds like a hawk, but Sakai KO = Sakai to win, so still going to be able to get him around $3.50, but seems like there is going to be some missed opportunity to Aussies over time, unless there is something I'm unaware of re an overseas site that offers odds weeks and months out; or Parimatch can be used by Aussies?
 

4THAWN

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Where do you bet on your MMA then?

All the Aussie books don't really release odds unless it's a marquee fight until fight week, and same deal with Betfair.

All the overseas books seem off limits to Aussies.

Sakai was $3.30 on Parimatch for weeks and I was hoping to get on him, and now that the fight has finally been made available on the Aus books his odds are almost a dollar less.

Frustrating because I had been watching those odds like a hawk, but Sakai KO = Sakai to win, so still going to be able to get him around $3.50, but seems like there is going to be some missed opportunity to Aussies over time, unless there is something I'm unaware of re an overseas site that offers odds weeks and months out; or Parimatch can be used by Aussies?
I just bet with the Australian corps and betfair

Recently all fights have been up on most corporates at least a full week before the fight, sometimes more with the books i use, mostly 365. Betfair are slower. For example look at B365 right now, you'll see they've got the full card available to bet on h2h for the Fight Night in 11 days.

I agree that this leads to missed opportunities for us aussies.
 

Bucking Bronco

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Damn, cannot believe that it was Overeem whose cardio held up and not Sakai's.

Luckily I hedged my Sakai bet by backing fight doesn't go the distance too - which almost fell over too... :rolleyes:
 

NonPhixion

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Didn’t watch the fight, glad I didn’t, would have been sweating hard by the looks of things.
 

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