UFC Betting

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4THAWN

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Might be worth having something on Eduardo Garagorri to beat Mirsad Bektic on Sunday. $4.90 on SB.

Reckon his striking advantage here might be good enough to nab 2 rounds here or get a KO. Bektic has a really heavy top game and is a good wrestler, but if Garrigori can manage to stay standing for enough time I think he could land a massive upset. Been about a year since we last saw Garigorri too, he's just signed a new 4 fight contract with the UFC, think theres some decent upside in the guy.
 

4THAWN

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Might be worth having something on Eduardo Garagorri to beat Mirsad Bektic on Sunday. $4.90 on SB.

Reckon his striking advantage here might be good enough to nab 2 rounds here or get a KO. Bektic has a really heavy top game and is a good wrestler, but if Garrigori can manage to stay standing for enough time I think he could land a massive upset. Been about a year since we last saw Garigorri too, he's just signed a new 4 fight contract with the UFC, think theres some decent upside in the guy.
Garagorri has COVID and the fights been pulled.
 

burge13

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Chimaev KO at 2.80 I think is a good one. GM just got stopped in R1 by Heinsch, has bad stand up but has solid grappling. I think hes far more likely to be pounded out than get RNC'd or guillotined (hard to see any other sub happening).

Hoping Prices odds get better. The more i think about it, Cowboy is shot to bits and going back up to 170. Itll only take a glancing shot to drop him
 

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NonPhixion

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Didnt think of doing this despite it being a pretty obvious shot. What odds you get and at what point in the fight?
Got $11 on 365 at the end of R2. Didn’t bother shopping around so not sure what it was anywhere else. It was very quick got straight through surprisingly
 

burge13

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This week looks rough i think. I'm on Reyes as noted here
I think I'll bet Izzy Decision at $4.20 but will see how that moves, might get better

Not much I really like. Riddell might be a bit short? Ibragimov maybe a bet? Jeff Hughes looks big odds against a guy from the Spain regional scene who won a really weak TUF season and hasn't fought for 2 years. Espino wrestling wasn't great from memory and Hughes undoubtedly come through a tougher region to get to the UFC. Think I've talked myself into a bet on this one
 

NonPhixion

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Pretty keen for this ME. Think it will be an absolute cracker, personally liked Costa in the matchup for a long time. Izzy is hard to match on the feet but I think his lack of power will get him. Not convinced he can take Costas shots. Bets aside happy to watch the fight as a fan. Seems genuine bad blood between the two which always makes it interesting. This is where I would love a no touch gloves prop. Even at $1.10 it’s just free cash haha
 

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burge13

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Yeah, definitely a fight I'm happy to watch without a bet. Probably just have 20 on a prop for something to follow

Great boxing card Sunday too so I'll have to have 2 screens going. No bets as yet there but 6 good fights, something will pop up when lines are fully out
 

4THAWN

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I'm on my girl Sijara Eubanks once again. On the quick back up, gets a decently similar match up here again at dog odds.

Closer to a 50/50 fight for mine, will take the 2.62 available at b365.

Already got Adesanya straight out and Reyes as the final leg in a multi that started with Kevin Holland (very scary watch in that last round).

This week looks rough i think. I'm on Reyes as noted here
I think I'll bet Izzy Decision at $4.20 but will see how that moves, might get better

Not much I really like. Riddell might be a bit short? Ibragimov maybe a bet? Jeff Hughes looks big odds against a guy from the Spain regional scene who won a really weak TUF season and hasn't fought for 2 years. Espino wrestling wasn't great from memory and Hughes undoubtedly come through a tougher region to get to the UFC. Think I've talked myself into a bet on this one
That is not a bad price for the Izzy decision, although I am probably leaning towards Izzy finding the KO sometime over the 5 rounds.

If that drifts out to say $4.50 or $5 I'll be having something there.

Pretty keen for this ME. Think it will be an absolute cracker, personally liked Costa in the matchup for a long time. Izzy is hard to match on the feet but I think his lack of power will get him. Not convinced he can take Costas shots. Bets aside happy to watch the fight as a fan. Seems genuine bad blood between the two which always makes it interesting. This is where I would love a no touch gloves prop. Even at $1.10 it’s just free cash haha
I know I've said this before but personally think Costa's power is overrated and Adesanya's probably underrated. As far as I can remember, all Costa's knock downs and TKO's are the result of volume striking, not neccessarily crazy power or anything. Doesn't even have a single genuine KO on his record, they're all TKOs.

Adesanya has arguably KO'd whittaker twice in two rounds, and knocked Gastleum down many times and smashed Brunson. Not saying Costa is weak just really do think that his "power" is massively overplayed.
 

4THAWN

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I got sent some stats by a bloke on twitter for the card this weekend.
Israel Adesanya : Averages 1.25 knockdowns per fight, on average it takes Israel 50 strikes to land a knockdown.

Paulo Costa: Averages 0.8 knockdowns per fight, on average it takes 76 strikes to land a knockdown.

Theres more good stats in there for all fighters.

I think my final set of plays is going to be Adesanya, Reyes, Eubanks and Royval.
 

burge13

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I'm always wary of stats in MMA. They don't/can't take into account level of competition, styles, chins etc. Raw stats are meaningless really as a fight against Cerrone will look drastically different from a fight against a wrestler of similar ranking for example

I don't remember the Gastelum fight well, 4 knockdowns? Surprises me, thought it was less for some reason. Gastelum had him badly rocked and stupidly went for a takedown.

I'll tail you on Eubanks given you nailed her last fight
 

burge13

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Matthews KO $3.75 over Sanchez
Diego is shot to sh1t. Matthews showed solid boxing improvements his last few fights, will have a size advantage and is only 26. Should continue to improve
 

4THAWN

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Geraine De Randamie $1.90 to beat Julianna Pena on the Holm v Aldana card. Think thats good shopping for GDR given she managed to trouble and outstrike Nunes on the feet, plus she has stuffed the past 22 takedown attempts by people not named Amanda Nunes.
 

burge13

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Geraine De Randamie $1.90 to beat Julianna Pena on the Holm v Aldana card. Think thats good shopping for GDR given she managed to trouble and outstrike Nunes on the feet, plus she has stuffed the past 22 takedown attempts by people not named Amanda Nunes.
I remember her being underdog to Ladd. Probably the worst line set in some time, reminiscent of Rose being underdog to PVZ

No fan of WMMA but it is easier to spot the definitively better fighter is in many matchups. Then seeing them as underdog is bliss

That said, I have pretty much stopped watching wmma so no clue on this fight. Pena been out ages, right? GDR a great striker so should piece her up standing
 
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4THAWN

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I remember her being underdog to Ladd. Probably the worst line set in some time, reminiscent of Rose being underdog to PVZ

No fan of WMMA but it is easier to definitive obviously better fighter is in many matchups. Then seeing them as underdog is bliss

That said, I have pretty much stopped watching wmma so no clue on this fight. Pena been out ages, right? GDR a great striker so should piece her up standing
Pena took 2 and a half years off after losing to Schevchenko. Came back and fought Nicco Montano and looked much the same as she did before the long layoff. Been about a year since we saw.

Yeah GDR should easily win the striking battle here.
 

burge13

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Cashed out of Matthews KO. Perriera is much better than Matthews who Sanchez ate shots from
Hasn't been stopped since 2017 and in reality Matthews isn't deserving of his price.

I've posted some boxing stuff in the combat section if anyone wants to tail
 

NonPhixion

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Closer this fight gets the more I’m liking Costa. Just more of a feel than anything but I really think at some stage he will have Izzy backed up against the cage and he won’t be able to absorb the punches. Romero took some absolute cannons from Costa. That would have put anybody else away. I think he can get in boxing range and pressure Izzy against the cage. He throws heat, but he’s not just a ball of muscle. Personally think as good as Izzy is and he is good, he’s a little bit over hyped
 

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