- Jun 16, 2018
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This aged like milk in the sun.
Old mate got smacked in the first few seconds of the fight.
Oh well.
Poor Herb Dean put in another shocker as well.
UFC Betting
- Thread starter NonPhixion
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Old mate got smacked in the first few seconds of the fight.
Oh well.
Poor Herb Dean put in another shocker as well.
happens. This sport has high variability and heaps of factors.
I wan on De Lima there but easily could've gone south if that fight went out of r1. A rothwell takedown could've been game over.
Pettis, I was likely going to fade him tbh. Whats your thoughts here?
Was going to go relatively big on Crute tomorrow but getting cold feet. Weeks itd maybe, on puelles from weeks ago. Font? Matthews? Fiziev? On the fence with these ones but theyre the leans
Nothing in boxing. Yarde/Arthur only bettable fight on h2h markets. Weekend of mismatches and cbf reaching for props
Was going to go relatively big on Crute tomorrow but getting cold feet. Weeks itd maybe, on puelles from weeks ago. Font? Matthews? Fiziev? On the fence with these ones but theyre the leans
Nothing in boxing. Yarde/Arthur only bettable fight on h2h markets. Weekend of mismatches and cbf reaching for props
Just think thats a great number on pettis KO.
Sergio is a sharp counterstriker, Horiguchi been KO'd by Asakura 2 fights ago. If Pettis can keep it standing he's easily the side at 2.50 or thereabouts.
I do favour crute, but have enough worries about him in an extended fight that I wont be betting him at 1.50. His submission prop seems an okay way to play him. He probably finishes early a large portion of the times he wins this. Hill output/cardio makes it hard to give Crute too big of an advantage if it goes 15.
Eh Weeks not great. Short notice massive step up in competition, Barbarena probably the side if he's not completely shot (which unfortunately he may be).
Rather be on gritz than puelles. If there wasn't concerns about gritz training situation v Puelles from top gym in Sanford I'd have already bet him in some fashion.
Font I don't mind but might be a better livebet.
Won't catch me laying fave price on Jake Matthews. Wells skills are lacking but physical freak and matthews mentality enough to keep me away at that price.
I like riddell over fiz, think he's got more finishing upside + massive chance of winning round 3. Fight could be weird however because these 2 are friendly and have trained extensively together.
Having a real crack at these tomorrow
Muniz H2H $1.62
O Malley H2H $1.33
Nunes TKO/Sub $1.22
Poirier TKO/Sub $1.90
$5.45
Muniz H2H $1.62
O Malley H2H $1.33
Nunes TKO $1.30
Poirier TKO $2.20
$6.75
Muniz H2H $1.62
O Malley H2H $1.33
Nunes TKO/Sub $1.22
Poirier TKO/Sub $1.90
$5.45
Muniz H2H $1.62
O Malley H2H $1.33
Nunes TKO $1.30
Poirier TKO $2.20
$6.75
Agree sherman as underdog could be a good bet - he's looking in career best shape. But also pretty uninspiring performance last time.
I can see angles on bontorin but also think this could be a horrible match up for him. Didn't like hearing that royval wants to slow himself down in his interview.
Won't knock bush too hard for his short notice debut but he would need to show some significant improvements here for me to ever see him as a betting prospect. Slava can struggle in the grappling at times but nasty kickboxer and has worked through wrestling/grappling situations decently so far in his MMA career.
I guess kelleher dec over rosa is probably fairly likely. Not sure if prices are out on that though. Will be interesting i guess.
- Jun 16, 2018
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I'm surprised that Ngannou is the $2.30 underdog.
60% Gane 40% Ngannou feels fair.
Big cage for Cyril who has elite heavyweight movement and footwork, knows Francis intimately and is generally good at limiting risky exchanges.
1.5u Giles - 2.15. 2 ? on trevin - Weight cut to 170 and fight IQ. On tape is clearly the better fighter, think he wins if he can fight smart and the weight cut doesn't destroy him.
1u Gane by dec 4.75 - bet365 but i think lads/neds now have that price instead
1.25u Fight GTD - 4s- neds
0.25u Ngannou dec 15s - plenty
Think Gane is 60% here and at least half of his win equity comes as dec so think theres an edge here. Happy to risk the biggest HW puncher in MMA history finding a KO at this price.
0.75u Wellington Turman by dec 7s Neds + 0.25u Turman r3 23s B365.
Really DON'T like Turman as a fighter and pretty much immediately regretted making these bets but too late now. Turman probably needs to put a pace on vieira, and obviously needs to survive the wrestling and grappling here to be a chance. Rodolfo volume, gassiness and overall game really makes it hard for him to cover as a big fave. This is just a way for me to to have a shot at a good return on a Vieira fade while keeping my exposure minimal (1u total).
0.25u Multi Lads
Stamman by points 3.75
giles 2.05
pereira 1.38
frevola 1.53
16.23 before a boost.
Sort of me trying to keep exposure down on Stamann but also get something out of him if he wins a dec. I think 3 fighters listed below him should all win based on tape.
Punt well people, this card should be a ripper.
Might have more bets
1u Gane by dec 4.75 - bet365 but i think lads/neds now have that price instead
1.25u Fight GTD - 4s- neds
0.25u Ngannou dec 15s - plenty
Think Gane is 60% here and at least half of his win equity comes as dec so think theres an edge here. Happy to risk the biggest HW puncher in MMA history finding a KO at this price.
0.75u Wellington Turman by dec 7s Neds + 0.25u Turman r3 23s B365.
Really DON'T like Turman as a fighter and pretty much immediately regretted making these bets but too late now. Turman probably needs to put a pace on vieira, and obviously needs to survive the wrestling and grappling here to be a chance. Rodolfo volume, gassiness and overall game really makes it hard for him to cover as a big fave. This is just a way for me to to have a shot at a good return on a Vieira fade while keeping my exposure minimal (1u total).
0.25u Multi Lads
Stamman by points 3.75
giles 2.05
pereira 1.38
frevola 1.53
16.23 before a boost.
Sort of me trying to keep exposure down on Stamann but also get something out of him if he wins a dec. I think 3 fighters listed below him should all win based on tape.
Punt well people, this card should be a ripper.
Might have more bets
- May 5, 2014
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Where is the logic coming from that Gane wins by decision.
Ngannou doesn't have cardio and that is a death sentence in my eyes against someone who has it in spades, as well as surgical striking, in Gane.
Just projects as a repeat of Gane/ Lewis, where Ngannou will start to tire and Gane will smell blood and finish him off.
People have confused 'not having punching power', with 'choosing not to use power when striking'. Gane has plenty of power as far as I'm concerned. Dude is almost as jacked as Francis and loaded with fast twitch fibres. He can bang bro.
Francis is a bloody bum anyway. I'm tipping a Conor-like nosedive in his career from here on out. OR, of course he could land another one of his patented fluke windmill KO's.
No matter how many good points you make, you lose all credibility with nonsense calls like this. Wins over Reem, Stipe, Blaydes x2, Rozenstruik, Cain...
Is he technical? No. Does he need to be? No
I think Gane wins on Sunday but Ngannou has power to end a fight instantly and much like Wilder can be losing a fight until he lands one. Fighters like this have to be perfect for 1 second whereas their opponents need to be perfect the entire fight. These guys aren't "bums" by any stretch
- Jun 16, 2018
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I saw a slomo clip of Francis vs Rozenstruik again yesterday.
Somehow I forgot that Rozenstruik avoided three windmills, and landed an beautiful counter, before eating the big haymaker.
On one hand, makes me think that it is going to take a lot for Gane to put Francis away.
On the other hand, makes me wonder how a man can reach the top with such loose technique. I mean really.
Somehow I forgot that Rozenstruik avoided three windmills, and landed an beautiful counter, before eating the big haymaker.
On one hand, makes me think that it is going to take a lot for Gane to put Francis away.
On the other hand, makes me wonder how a man can reach the top with such loose technique. I mean really.
- Mar 27, 2018
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Ngannou can take a punch, his chin is rock solid. I don't mind the fight to go the distance, i can see Gane fighting really conservatively. Looking forward to the fight but have this over-riding feeling it could be a potential snooze fest. Hopefuly not like Lewis/Ngannou.
